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Manhattan Loft Guy

Sep. 9, 2012 - about that Master List of downtown Manhattan loft sales ...


if you need a diversion from Manhattan lofts today, look elsewhere (anywhere else)

I think this is the second week in a row, but perhaps only the second time in the last few months, that the  Master List of Manhattan Lofts Sold Since November 2008 has been up to date. That Google Docs spreadsheet is probably the single bit of Manhattan Loft Guy content that I link to most often, with my Miller Riffing about outdoor space a distant second. I realize that I (hardly) ever link to the origin post for the Master List, the August 23, 2009 post that explained what I was compiling and how, and the (important!) limits to the data, as well as apologized (by inference) for its typically Manhattan Loft Guy primitive nature: master list of Manhattan loft closings since November.

At that long ago date, the spreadsheet had 229 resales of downtown Manhattan lofts with recorded prices between $500,000 and $5,000,000, and 164 new development sales in the same geography and dollar range. As of September 7 deed filings, the spreadsheet now has more than 2,000 resales and new development sales approaching 1,000, with past sales data on many of the resales. The major improvements to the Master List since it was rolled out

  • a field on the resale page for Neighborhood, for those who like to scan (or sort) by geography
  • if a resale cleared above the last asking price, the sales price is highlighted in green
  • if a resale sold at the last asking price, the asking price is highlighted in yellow

If you’ve looked at the Master List recently, you’d have noticed that

  • there were 51 downtown Manhattan loft resales in August (so far, more deeds will be filed over the next few weeks), 63 in July (some may still be filed), and 72 in June
  • those figures compare to 65 loft resales in August 2011, 62 in July 2011, and 81 in June 2011
  • in those last 3 months, 10 loft resales were above the last asking price, and 15 were at that price
  • compared to 14 above the last asking price and 16 at that price in August, July and June, 2011

Want to know how many loft resales went to contact within 30 days of coming to market? Scroll down Column J on Sheet1.

In fact, play and scroll to your heart’s content … knock yourself out!

Of course there is so much more that I could do with this data. Note to sel ... Note to self ... Note to self!

© Sandy Mattingly 2012


 

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Dec. 8, 2006 - sorry, wrong number (but still ironic) / Miller corrects the record

 
year-over-year number different than quarterly decline
Jonathan Miller points out on his Matrix that the NY Post article I quoted yesterday (Manhattan Bumps Real-Estate Slump) used the wrong median sale price number in comparing his report for PruDE with REBNY’s. REBNY reported a 6.7% increase for the Third Quarter, compared to a year ago, while the Post (incorrectly) compared that to the 4% decrease in median sale price that Mille Samuel reported for the Third Quarter compared to the Second Quarter; in fact, the Miller Samuel number for year-over-year change was a 12.7% increase.
 
That’s what I get for not going to the source (the Miller Samuel report) but relying on the press.
 
But the gentle irony I pointed out is the same: Dottie Herman’s quote about not seeing any slump is hard to reconcile with her own commissioned report showing a quarter-to-quarter reduction in median sales price.
 
I am sure she was not aware of the juxtaposition. I am also sure she does not care what I think.
 
© Sandy Mattingly 2006
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Dec. 7, 2006 - irony can be delicious / juxtaposition of PruDE quote and data in NY Post worth a smile

pumping the market, no matter the cost
Today’s brief item in the NY Post Manhattan Bumps Real-Estate Slump from Bloomberg is amusing for at least one reason.
 
The context:
The Real Estate Board of New York’s Q3 data shows that median prices for Manhattan apartments were up 6% for the quarter.
 
The quote:
 
"I haven't seen any slump, I've seen the opposite," said Dottie Herman, CEO of Manhattan brokerage Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate.
 
Ms. Herman, meet Mr. Miller
It has long been a problem that different firms and different sources report different data about the Manhattan market that purports to describe the same stuff. The REBNY data is a little different from other reports, as the Post notes today:
 
The new New York figures contradict an October report by Miller Samuel Inc., the borough's largest appraiser. Its data showed median prices fell 4 percent to $845,147 for the quarter.
 
One could argue that a 4% drop in median prices was a sign of a “slump”, though not to Ms. Herman, apparently.
 
The irony:
 
The report of a 4% drop in median Manhattan apartment prices in the last quarter is prepared by Miller Samuel for – and extensively branded and publicized by – Prudential Douglas Elliman.
 
You can’t make this stuff up.
 
© Sandy Mattingly 2006
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Mar. 19, 2006 - Zillow - what it is and what it says about how it does Manhattan

If you pay any attention to real estate matters on the 'net you are probably one of the people who made www.zillow.com one of the most popular internet real estate sites -- within about a month of launching its beta site. Any way you look at it *that* is an impressive debut for any site.
 
What is Zillow and Why Might You Care?
 
Zillow is one of a rash of new sites that try to aggregate and present in usable form data about real estate transactions and listings -- from many sources -- to permit anyone to estimate the value of their home or apartment. The people behind it are (a) very internet savvy (including the Expedia founders) and (b) well capitalized (they are said to have started with $32 million in Venture Capital funding).
 
*That* is enough to tell me this is something to take seriously.
 
You might care about Zillow if you have been frustrated by the difficulty of getting hard data about Manhattan values, including comparable sales history. (You have been frustrated -- no doubt -- if you have ever tried to do this.) Other sites try to do the same or similar things, like Trulia.com and Property Shark, but this effort is comprehensive and ambitious. The feature that has attracted the most attention is the Zestimator -- their way to estimate the value of a property.
 
Zillow's data is likely to get better (who knows how much) and the folks seems smart and motivated and well-funded enough to improve the algorithms and other math voodoo to improve their results.
 
But the data in beta has some *serious* limitations for Manhattan lofts and apartments. The key numbers Zillow reports in Manhattan are 13% for Error Percentage and 41% for 10% Range, meaning that half of the time they will "Zestimate" a value that is off by 13%, higher or lower, and that the Zestimate will be off by 10% only 41% of the time. So: half the time they will get the value of a hypothetical $1,000,000 apartment as within the range of $870,000 to $1,130,000 and half the time they will Zestimate that $1,000,000 as either worth less than $870,000 or more than $1,130,000.
 
They believe that they will Zestimate within the range of $900,000 to $1,100,000 almost exactly four times out of ten.
 
See the definitions and Manhattan numbers at http://www.zillow.com/howto/DataCoverageZestimateAccuracyNY.z#table.
 
Nationally, by the way, they believe that their 50/50 error range is 7.2% of the true value and that 62% of the time they come within 10% plus or minus.
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Sandy Mattingly is Manhattan Loft Guy; now with The Corcoran Group (http://corcoran.com/ ; but see the disclaimer at the bottom of the page), he can be reached most easily at Sandy@ManhattanLoftGuy.com or 917.902.2491, and followed on Twitter @ManhattnLoftGuy (note "mis-spelling"). After 7+ years, the blog has moved. Links here on RealTown will work for the foreseeable future, but new posts (and all the old content) has migrated to ManhattanLoftGuy.com.

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