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October 2010

Oct. 5, 2010 - Manhattan as sublime +/or a stockyard / the Quote Of The Day


so much to read, so little time
Today’s QOTD comes from Lapham’s Quarterly / a magazine of history and ideas (h/t Andrew Sullivan), into which I have barely dipped a toe. His October 3 Preamble includes this insight (one small part of a long essay; memo to self: find out more about Lapham; consider the $49/yr for this quarterly Quarterly??):

When seen at a height or a distance, from across the Hudson River or from the roof of Rockefeller Center, Manhattan meets the definitions of the sublime. At ground level Manhattan is a stockyard, the narrow streets littered with debris and laid out in the manner of cattle chutes, the tenements and storefronts uniformly fitted to fit the framework of a factory or a warehouse. The modus vivendi under the boot of the modus operandi. The commercial imperative comes with no apology. Like most other American cities, New York is a product of the nineteenth-century Industrial Revolution, built on a standardized grid, conceived neither as a thing of beauty nor as an image of the cosmos, much less as an expression of man’s humanity to man, but as a shopping mall in which to perform the heroic feats of acquisition and consumption.

Click and enjoy! Repeat as necessary.

© Sandy Mattingly 2010

 

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Oct. 4, 2010 - 22 Mercer Street loft market is VERY efficient (for now)


well, it’s a theory
Generally speaking, the Manhattan real estate resale market is not terribly efficient, in the economic sense. First, because real time accurate information is not widely held (among other factors: in contract status, actual condition of units); second, because “The Market” does not value an apartment or a loft, the individual seller and buyer who (eventually) get together set the value, and The Market is the aggregate of all those individual bilateral decisions; third, because The Market is relatively thin (comparable apartments or lofts don’t trade every day, providing less frequent snapshots than in a deeper market); and fourth, because -- especially with lofts -- we are not dealing with commodities (essentially identical items), such that the clearing price for A is a valid proxy for the concurrent value of B.

if you were going to look for a specific loft building in Manhattan in which to hunt for efficiency, you’d start with a property that was pretty new, a recent development or conversion in which (a) the sponsor did such a good job that the first buyers largely lived in the lofts “as built”, and (b) owners have had less time to do much in the way of “improvement”. You’d still have to get lucky to find a pair or more of early buyers of essentially identical lofts who both decided to sell at the same time.

it is better to be lucky than good
Did that apple really fall on Newton’s head? I don’t know if that story is apocryphal but this one shows a high degree of Manhattan Loft Guy luck:

  • #2B at 22 Mercer Street sold on September 22
  • #3B sold on June 7

They have: (a) identical floor plans (although #2B has a Juliet balcony), and (b) identical kitchens and baths (and, probably, everything else) from sponsor sales in January 2007 (#2B) and January 2008 (#3B).

From the perspective of efficiency-testing, it is interesting that they did directly compete with each other. #3B came to market on April 1 and found its contract by May 11; #2B came out on May 14 and was spoken for by July 8. Note that they took only 6 and 7 weeks to contract; The Market was pretty receptive to them.

Coming out first, #3B tested at $3.095mm before dropping to $2.975mm; #2B seems to have paid attention, as it came out at $2.995mm.

paging Sgt Joe Friday
Given my thesis and big build-up, you won’t be surprised by the results. So ... in a moment, the results of that trial ....

(a moment)

(passed)

#3B June 7 $2,812,500
#2B Sept 22 $2,825,000

 
That “difference” of $12,500 is but 0.044444% of the lower price, a rounding error. Given that there were two different sellers (with two different listing firms) and two different buyers, all operating in sequence roughly 6 weeks apart, it is fair to say that The Market valued these identical units exactly the same. (To fracture the language and push the formatting, exactly exactly the same if you think a Juliet balcony is worth $12,500.)

Careful Manhattan Loft Guy readers will recognize that we have played this game recently, in that case in a Manhattan loft building that was converted to coop nearly 20 years ago (i.e., in which there has been a lot of time for an “identical” elements to have been washed out).

f’in efficient, you might say
That was in my August 26, loft market at 476 Broadway is pretty F'in efficient, in which I noted the F’in efficiency in the micro-market for the “F” line at 476 Broadway:

The Manhattan loft #6E at 476 Broadway closed on August 12 at $2.5mm, fairly soon after the upstairs neighbors in #8E sold their "2,350 sq ft" loft with an identical footprint (but very different layout) for $2.65mm on June 24. The lofts came to market within two days of each other in January, and with contract dates of March 18 (#8E) and June 24 (#6E), the two lofts were simultaneously available to the market for nearly two months. The Market clearly preferred one to the other.


Really careful Manhattan Loft Guy readers will recognize that we have played this game even in the post-Lehman nuclear winter thin market of early 2009, in my May 6, 2009, pretty efficient (depressed) market at 505 Greenwich Street as both 6F and 7F sell, off 25%.

the other hand opens
But you know that The Market is not generally efficient, a point on which I have hammered time (August 15, tales of one loft building / the inefficient market at 718 Broadway, circa 2006, weaker market, 2010) and time again (September 20, same floor lofts sell at 46 Mercer Street, in same condition but at different prices).

And that’s how we roll at Manhattan Loft Guy ... The Market is The Market, is The Market. Sometimes it’s efficient, and sometimes it ... ain’t. Consider yourselves warned.

© Sandy Mattingly 2010

 

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Oct. 3, 2010 - is the 2010 strength in Manhattan loft sales odd, or even notable in a Lake Wobegon sense?


absolutely: maybe
I’ve been staring at the quarterly Manhattan loft market data in various metrics .... Blame it on The Miller (for giving me the numbers); blame it on Diane Ramirez (for calling the bottom); blame it on the Red Sox (not sleeping).

Here is something I see: if there are as many Manhattan lofts sold in the Fourth Quarter of 2010 as were sold in any other quarter this year, this year’s total will approach or exceed the best year for loft sales in the last seven (2008). Here is something else that i see: if you took the last four quarters as a “year” (4Q09 - 3Q10), the total loft sales in that not-a-real-year would come within 2.5% of the 2008 total. (And: that that 2008 total [for a ‘natural’ year] is the highest of any four-consecutive-quarter set going back to 1Q02 - 4Q02.)

One more thing: in this string of the last four quarters, each quarter is at or above the average for quarterly loft sales in the the last 5 years and very, very, very near the average for quarterly loft sales in the last 10 years. As far as data, that’s all I’ve got at the moment.

does “average” = “strength”?
In the current world (post 2007 liquidity crunch, post 2008 Lehman bankruptcy, post 2009 ‘nuclear winter’), reaching a long-term average four times in a row seems like it is approaching normal.


I am not saying this 4-quarter run is “normal” or that it represents the bottom, because “normal” is an awfully elusive concept (notice I wiggled with “seems like it is approaching ...”) and The Bottom will be seen only in the rear-view mirror. But I am saying that this consistently average sales volume indicates a now-4-quarter-long market that has been deeper than the market that preceded it.

Deeper in the sense that there have been a consistent and consistently average number of buyers and sellers who have agreed on market prices for an average number of lofts. By my lights, a deep market (in which buyers and sellers meet, in quantity) is a more efficient market, a market in which buyers and sellers find it easier to negotiate to an agreement. The Days on Market data of late are consistently (if not yet conclusively) in support of this depth: the last two quarters have the two lowest DoM figures of any quarter going back (so far) through 2007 [updated:] the Second Quarter of 2005 (I have not yet gone back farther).

so what?
So what I am saying is that the latest loft sale data on volume (transactions) and velocity (DoM) suggest that the loft niche has been in a period of relative strength. I am not saying that this period will continue, but I will be watching to see if it does.

so, when?
In yesterday’s post about the loft niche vis-a-vis the overall Manhattan real estate market, October 2, Manhattan loft market outperforms in volume (big) + absorption, i talked about two intriguing loft metrics:

the reported loft numbers show that this niche outperformed the overall Manhattan real estate market year-over-year in two metrics: transactions (volume) and inventory change (absorption). ...

 

I suspect that the first number is more due to the inherent volatility of Small Numbers (a niche is a niche), but that the second may be more significant.


Everything that I have said about Manhattan loft sales volume in this post is based on those Small Numbers (the five- and ten-year averages are in the range of 180 and 185 loft sales per quarter), so it is possible that I am looking at essentially random variation but detecting a “pattern”. Maybe, but you’ll have a better idea of that when (not if) I do what I suggested in that post that I might, when I said immediately after the quoted portion above:

Which leads me to An Idea ... I should track both Loft Transactions and Loft Inventory as a percentage of the overall market!


If I track the loft niche vs. overall market on transaction volume I should find some longer term sense of the volume trends, if it is in the numbers to begin with. I have already begun to collect these numbers (every number cited here is taken from a Miller Samuel quarterly report), but I have not gotten enough numbers across enough metrics to make a splash when presenting it as a table. But I hope to get to that ... this week (?). Yeah, I hope.

If this post meanders too much for too little payout, don’t blame The Miller for his numbers or Ramirez for jumping the call to the bottom; blame Manhattan Loft Guy and (look at the time this is posted, compared to the end of “last night’s” game) blame the Red Sox (for me not sleeping). Go Royals!

© Sandy Mattingly 2010

 

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Oct. 2, 2010 - Manhattan loft market outperforms in volume (big) + absorption


nice (rare) consensus among firms!
Yesterday I beat up a little bit on Vivian Toy’s traditionally formatted New York Times article about the 4 major quarterly Manhattan real estate market reports for the Third Quarter and a bit more on the brokerage part of the Manhattan Real Estate Industrial Complex for its willingness to make predictions of “recovery, or “bottom”, or “normal” (Oct 1, why the race to (call) the bottom? third quarter Manhattan real estate market reports hit).

In today’s episode, Manhattan Loft Guy finds a pleasing consensus among the major firm reports about what happened last quarter in the overall Manhattan market, and explores the ways in which the Manhattan loft niche outperformed the overall market. (There's also a rant or two, and an idea for more interesting loft data!)

The two tables below break out t
he (limited) loft-specific data from the three major firms that do quarterly market reports for Manhattan real estate and then provide some (deeper) overall market data from these three firms and from StreetEasy. [The Links: Miller Samuel report is here; Corcoran is here; the Halstead version of the Terra report is here; StreetEasy is here.] Even though I am often critical of the news articles about quarterly market reports, I have also noted the challenges to offering coherent analysis in our Wild West in which data differ between firms, so if you are looking for concise or brilliant prose, avert your eyes....

Loft data from the Third Quarter 2010 Manhattan real estate market reports, with year-over-year comparisons

  median sales price avg price per foot transactions days on market inventory
Miller Samuel $1.66mm [up 10.7%] $1,091 [up 6.2%] 190 [up 53.2%] 104 [down 24.1%] 521 [down 16.4%]
Terra Holdings   $1,077 [up 12%]      
Corcoran $1.775mm [up 18%] $1,119 [down 2%]      



Overall market data with year-over-year comparisons

  median sales price avg price per foot transactions days on market inventory
Miller Samuel $914k [up 7.5%] $1,095 [up 10%] 2,661 [up 19.3%] 125 [down 25.5%] 8,123 [down 3.2%]
Terra Holdings $890k [up 14%]   2,471 [up 4%] 97 [down 24%]  
Corcoran $900k [up 9%] $1,046 [up 2%] ~3,000 [down 5%]   9,243 [down 4.9%]
StreetEasy $875k [up 14.4%]   ~ 3,350 [up 1.9%] 123/113* [down 17.5%/19.1%] [down 6.5%]


*If StreetEasy has an overall market number for DoM, I didn’t find it; my table has Condo/Coop numbers (how awkward!)

Without going all anal on you, I can’t recall another quarterly market report in which the same-firm trends for the overall Manhattan real estate market matched so well. On median sales price, days on market, and inventory, all reporting firms report within a tolerably narrow range. Looking only at direction (not scale), there is only one arrow pointing a different way: Corcoran shows transaction volume down, while the other 3 reporting firms show a year-over-year increase in the number of transactions.

caution: Habitual Rant ahead
I have to point out the obvious here, sorry .... In what kind of rational market can the “simple” act of counting What Is For Sale come up with answers as variable as 2,471, 2,661, 3,000, and 3,350?? What is so frigging important to these firms about their own frigging numbers that they can’t see the importance of standardizing method to avoid being laughed at (by whatever small percentage of the consumer population that actually takes these reports seriously) because there is a 36% spread between the High and Low counts?

Yes, these numbers are all produced by professionals. And, yes, each firm believes in its heart of hearts that it has the best method. Probably, each firm believes that its method is “better” because of its proprietary advantage in data collection / data massaging / data interpretation.

Memo to brokerage firms: (educated) consumers don’t believe you. At least in part, they don’t believe you because you don’t agree.

a Modest Prediction
Sooner or later, StreetEasy (or something like it) is going to come up with a format that is sufficiently acceptable to (educated) consumers that its report will gain credence as the (only) objective report out there. At that point, essentially no one will pay attention to the (oh so expensive to produce) Proprietary Reports.

Obviously, Property Shark is betting the other way, as it allied with Corcoran (last year? in 2008??). I imagine that relationship has a contract term; I wonder how long it is , and whether The Shark will want to renew. Similarly, The Miller made a deal with PruDE way back when (when there was no dried fruit in DE); I wonder if he worries about whether that relationship diminishes his credibility in The New World. (Note that both the New York Times article and the Wall Street Journal article about the major firm reports now include citations to StreetEasy.)

UrbanDigs see this opportunity, clearly, but his approach is different from any of these reports: Noah wants to track a whole bunch of metrics for real-time trends. He is not so much competing with the major firms as playing a different game.

lofts (finally!)
Let’s get back on track here .... As I noted so far up top that it in the title of this post, the reported loft numbers show that this niche outperformed the overall Manhattan real estate market year-over-year in two metrics: transactions (volume) and inventory change (absorption). I scan the other metrics as roughly similar, overall market to Manhattan lofts.

I suspect that the first number is more due to the inherent volatility of Small Numbers (a niche is a niche), but that the second may be more significant. Which leads me to An Idea ... I should track both Loft Transactions and Loft Inventory as a percentage of the overall market! (Meaning, I should re-frame The Miller’s numbers to calculate something he is not especially interested in.) I am inclined to think it will be less interesting to re-frame the median price data in this way, but let’s see what I think when I get around to actually doing this .... (Weigh in, you Manhattan Loft Guy Readers, if you have a preference.)

© Sandy Mattingly 2010

 

 

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Oct. 1, 2010 - why the race to (call) the bottom? third quarter Manhattan real estate market reports hit


a rainy day also rains numbers
I am pretty sure I am in the minority about this, but I believe that major players in the Real Estate Industrial Complex in Manhattan are missing a shift in how consumers want information processed for them. There may be more than enough business to do -- for now -- The Old Way, but a new way would pay more attention to why so many people are drawn to data sites like StreetEasy, Trulia and Zillow and commentary (gossip?) sites like Curbed and Brownstoner. I launched into this lane of thinking after reading the classically constructed article about the major firm Manhattan market reports for the Third Quarter of 2010 in that bastion of the Real Estate Industrial Complex, the New York Times.

In today’s Manhattan Real Estate Market Seems to Stabilize, With Prices Up and Sales Volume Down, Vivian Toy has the unenviable task of making some sense out of quarterly reports from firms that use different numbers. I will chew on the numbers over the next few days, but for now I want to focus on the Big Picture “analysis” in that article, as presented from the heads of major firms, after noting this consistent finding:

Prices increased for the fifth straight quarter, with the average sales price hovering around $1.43 million and the median price around $910,000, according to data provided by the city’s four largest brokerage firms.


Previous Manhattan Loft Guy posts on the art form of these newspaper articles include this April 2, first impression of First Quarter reports, where I said

I do feel badly for the reporters who have to summarize the major firm quarterly reports of Manhattan real estate activity, such as Christine Haughney in today's NY Times, Slight Rise in Manhattan Apartment Prices in First Quarter, Data Show. With reports from Terra Holdings (Halstead and Brown Harris Stevens), Corcoran, and Miller Samuel for Prudential Douglas Elliman, there's usually enough inter-firm variation to make a coherent narrative challenging even leaving aside the often incoherence of same-firm data comparisons. This quarter is no different.


For the post on the NY Times article introducing  last quarter’s reports, I complimented Ms. Toy for achieving “remarkable” coherence in synthesizing such varying numbers:

Toy's summation about the Second Quarter in her lede today is actually remarkably coherent: "[b]ut ... prices have not rebounded".


That was in my July 1, for real: Second Quarter Manhattan real estate market report numbers out.

“predictions are hard -- especially about the future”
Physicist Neils Bohr is often cited as the source for that sub-heading above, but there are some who claim it for Mark Twain. Regardless, it is a great quote, and a terrific counter-point to the (natural human?) tendency to want to hear Smart People tell us What Will Happen Next. You know ... that question that 97.41% of all buyers and sellers ask: “where is The Market heading?”

I suspect that Manhattan real estate prognosticators would do no better than the Brilliant Economists have done with projecting the federal budget deficit. This is from Ezra Klein’s February 2 Washington Post blog that used the quote above as its heading (my bold):

The New York Times has a cool feature today showing how rarely long-term budget forecasts get the picture right. .... As you can see, what forecasters do is extend the current trends. When something happens to break that trend -- a massive financial crisis, say -- they're generally caught unawares.


predictions are seductive, especially if they are positive
I made that one up, as there does seem to be a natural human tendency to want to be told What Happens Next. And here are the leaders of four major Manhattan real estate firms to satisfy that need, all as quoted by Toy in the Times:

“We have hit bottom, and we’re probably improving ahead of schedule,” said Diane M. Ramirez, the president of Halstead Property. “But that just means we’re into a more normal market. We’ve moved out of critical care, and we’re stabilized now.”   

 

“I think it’s a sign that the wild ride is over and real estate is back to its basics,” said Pamela Liebman, the chief executive of the Corcoran Group.

 

“The market came back from the bottom up,” [Dottie Herman, the chief executive of Prudential Douglas Elliman] said. “Now the bigger units are selling again, and the market is basically flat, but it’s healthy.”       

   

“With the steady growth we’ve seen,” [Hall F. Willkie, the president of Brown Harris Stevens] added, “I think we can be optimistic looking ahead.”


These quotes are almost in lock step, not just in sync.

a different point on the food chain
Since no one has asked me to head a major Manhattan real estate firm, I have never been faced with the question of how to spin present quarterly data in ways that are both fair and in the interest of my firm. I just don’t know that the best way to present the Third Quarter Manhattan numbers is to present a Big Picture of stability, given that (a) the last few quarter-to-quarter ‘trends’ have hardly been stable, and (b) I don’t know what is going to happen next.

In all cases, the heads of these firms have more experience (and more staff!) than I do, and their comments deserve respect. But getting back to my original point up top, I truly believe that fewer and fewer consumers prefer this Simple Happy Talk to a more nuanced view, less capable of quick summary.

Something like this kind of nuance (from Miller, The):

“The only reason the average and median prices are up,” he said, “is because the two-bedroom market is returning from being depressed to a more consistent, normal level.”


To be fair, here is a pretty good summary, but I guess too much for a NY Times reporter who needs to include quotes from all firms who report quarterly numbers:

Since the downturn began, there has been an inconsistent pattern of seasonality as the market corrected rapidly. Since reaching a trough in First Quarter 2009, sales have climbed back, begun to stabilize, and returned to typical seasonal ebbs and flows. Last year at this time, pent-up demand from three quarters of low sales and lower pricing created an energetic buyers market. For Third Quarter 2010, we saw a 5 percent decrease in the number of market-wide transactions from a year ago and a 19 percent decrease from Second Quarter 2010.

 

Market-wide price metrics have stabilized and even improved from last quarter and one year ago. The median price of all Third Quarter 2010 transactions was $900,000, an increase of 9 percent versus a year ago and a 15 percent increase from Second Quarter 2010. Buyers are purchasing larger apartments with more bedrooms.


You’d have to read the Corcoran report to find this, but these are the second and third paragraphs, so not hard to find.

Old Grey Lady: part of problem?
Maybe my narrow focus on the major firms in my original point up top is a mistake. As you’ve seen from the introductory paragraphs of the Corcoran report quoted above and will see in the Miller Samuel report, there is a lot more from the firms than just the-market-is-back-to-normal. But the Times can’t find a way to report much nuance in the space allotted.

Presumably, they (who know much more about their readers than I do) don’t think their readers want more of the on-the-one-hand / on-the-other-hand stuff.  Sometimes (as hinted in The Miller’s Times quote and in the Corcoran report) the mix of apartments that sold is significant; other times, the number of transactions may be more important than an overall median price change; in other quarters, days on market might be a particularly telling data point.

But the Times template for doing these The Numbers Are Out! articles does not permit that kind of depth. A few Big Numbers, a few quotes from the Big People, a few anecdotes ... that’s it. Maybe the Times, as well as other parts of the Real Estate Industrial Complex in Manhattan is just ... behind the times (ouch).

links! we got links
The Miller Samuel report is here; Corcoran is here; the Halstead version of the Terra report is here.

Some commentary to follow in the coming days, as I digest the reports.

© Sandy Mattingly 2010

 

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Sandy Mattingly is Manhattan Loft Guy; now with The Corcoran Group (http://corcoran.com/ ; but see the disclaimer at the bottom of the page), he can be reached most easily at Sandy@ManhattanLoftGuy.com or 917.902.2491, and followed on Twitter @ManhattnLoftGuy (note "mis-spelling"). After 7+ years, the blog has moved. Links here on RealTown will work for the foreseeable future, but new posts (and all the old content) has migrated to ManhattanLoftGuy.com.

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