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Aug. 12, 2008 - Seattle Real Estate - King County

Below is a graph I saw on Seattle Bubble that I found fascinating and am reposting here with Tim's permission.

 

 I love this graph as it makes me want to say "Do you feel like a Boston today?" the way that Clint Eastwood in Dirty Harry said "Do you feel lucky today, punk?"

I will shortly be posting my 12 months forward predictions on Rain City Guide, and will be linking to this post.  Seattle Bubble is pretty much the only source of info that I find of value as to data.  My interpretation of that data is different, but the data is invaluable.

What you are seeing above is where other markets have gone as to pricing, and yes, I do feel like a Boston, so maybe that makes me a punk :)  I only disagree with Seattle Bubble in that they are tracking markets from their previous peak, and I think you have to track all markets from July of 2007 forward.  We are not a lagging market.  There are two completely different components of the market downturn, and Seattle totally escaped the first which is showon on the graph above for those markets that turned down in 2005.

What is very important is how all of these markets react to the Mortgage Meltdown that happened simultaneously nationwide, and not how they performed from their peak of two years ago.  I expect cities that turned down in 2005 to do better than Seattle in that regard, because they have bargains to sell, and we essentially do not, by relative comparison.

See Rain Cty Guide for my 12 month  forward predictions and market commentary.

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Aug. 12, 2008 - RE: Seattle Real Estate - King County

Posted by rorysiems
That graph really says the story! Yes this line has got something to be looked for "What is very important is how all of these markets react to the Mortgage Meltdown that happened simultaneously nationwide, and not how they performed from their peak of two years ago."

Laguna Niguel Real Estate
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Oct. 6, 2008 - RE: Seattle Real Estate - King County

Posted by Ki Gray

Interesting breakdown of the stats.   I have a question.  I understand that cities that have fallen during the first downturn should be somewhat insulated from the second downturn.

Do you think that markets that didnt experience much appreciation pre 2005 will be somewhat insulated from the second downturn.

Ki

Austin Real Estate | Austin Real Estate Blog

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Oct. 6, 2008 - RE: Seattle Real Estate - King County

Posted by ARDELL DellaLoggia

Ki,

Our market which experienced much appreciation post April of 2005 did not have as much appreciation as other markets did from 1998 until 2005.

The second downtown is about the mortgage crisis, so I can't imagine any market being insulated from it.

You can answer the question yourself by tracking volume.  What was your area's volume in the first half of 2005 vs. 2006 vs. 2007 vs. 2008.  If you do not see a significant downturn in volume in the first half of 2008 from prior years, then perhaps the mortgage crisis will not have much of an impact.  But if your volume in the first half of 2008 is down 30% or more vs. those previous years, then no...you are not insulated from the second downturn.

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Oct. 6, 2008 - RE: Seattle Real Estate - King County

Posted by ARDELL DellaLoggia

Looking back at this chart I'm wondering what's up with Boston?  I just emailed my friend there earlier this evening when Boston won in the bottom of the ninth.  I should have asked him.

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Nov. 12, 2008 - RE: Seattle Real Estate - King County

Posted by Mike Stewart Downtown Vancouver Realtor

Hi,

Great post comparing whats been happening among the major US cities. I'm a Downtown Vancouver Realtor and we are experiencing some softening in our real estate market though not quite as much as in the US.

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Dec. 20, 2015 - RE: Seattle Real Estate - King County

Posted by Movety Canada

 Great study. Very helpful in doing market analysis and induces the decision-making on the mortgage issue. Many thanks for this input.

Best regards,

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Dec. 20, 2015 - RE: Seattle Real Estate - King County

Posted by Movety Canada

Our business is centered in Vancouver, the http://www.movety.com being our website. And it's always beneficial comapring the two markets which shows the common trends. Thanks again. 

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Feb. 3, 2016 - RE: Seattle Real Estate - King County

Posted by Richard Morrison

 Right now I am currently studying the effects of the market in Canada. It seems to me that within markets, there are always some submarkets that do well / get worse. For example, here in Vancouver we are having the mother of all real estate bull markets. However, in north Vancouver, condos have remained stable and have not inflated.

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Feb. 9, 2016 - RE: Seattle Real Estate - King County

Posted by Brad Dixon

Greatings - any chance this chart will be updated or a follow on post maybe forthcoming. I think it's invaluable to track this detail over a decade and see how each city has rebounded.  I'd be willing to sign up to chase down the numbers for a few cities in order to help out. Anyone else interested?  

Brad

HomesATX Realtors of Austin

 

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May. 19, 2017 - RE: Seattle Real Estate - King County

Posted by Ross Quade

 Hey there, I found this case shiller map from the downturn and have some clients interested in comparing the home prices for the Austin real estate market. Any chance you also have an updated graph including Central Texas? Any help would be much appreciated. 

Ross @ Homes Just West of Weird

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ARDELL DellaLoggia of Sound Realty on Seattle Real Estate process and market including Kirkland, Bellevue, Redmond, Green Lake and most areas around the top of Lake Washington North of Downtown Seattle. Phone: 206-910-1000 - Mailto:ARDELLd@gmail.com

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