- Risky Business
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What's going on now in the economy is being called risk aversion hysteria and that's an apt name. Unfortunately, what the hysterical avoidance of risk actually does is create more of it. With all the talk of a credit crisis, a shrinking economy and fewer jobs, people decide to be more careful with their money. This tanks consumer spending, which gets Wall Street worried, and stock prices swoon – so we wind up with a riskier environment.
A sterling example of this popped up last week. Part of the market's poor performance was tied to the terrible 2.8% drop in retail sales for October, which was directly linked to the current consumer aversion to risk. But it should be noted, if you exclude autos, building materials and gas, "core" retail sales fell only 0.5%. Still a decline, but smaller than the previous two months and, in fact, UP 1.3% over last year. We also want to point out that some economists expect October to be the worst month for retail in the recession and are projecting a "V"-shaped recovery, with growth coming back by Q2 of next year.
On the positive side, the Chinese government announced Monday a $586 billion plan to stimulate their economy. This set off a stock rally in China and inspired some good moves in our own markets for a while. And please also note that crude oil closed the week at $57.04 per barrel. But we did have lower earnings outlooks from a handful of retailers, plus Intel, who showed that techies can be cautious too. There was much hand wringing about whether the government should bail out the US auto industry. The week ended with the G20 countries meeting over the weekend in Washington to talk more about fixing this crisis and preventing future ones.
It was a super-volatile week in the markets, with a 911-point swing in the Dow on Thursday, when it closed up 552 points, its third-biggest gain ever. But for the week, all indexes ended down. The Dow was off 5.0%, at 8497.31. The S&P 500, down 6.2%, went to 873.29. The NASDAQ lost 7.9%, going to 1516.85.
The bond market moved around all week. But the benchmark 10-year Treasury ended up, so its yield, which runs counter to price, went a tick lower, finishing at 3.725%, nicely below the 4% threshold. Borrowers can expect mortgage rates to remain at historically low levels, where they've been for quite some time.
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