More RealTalk Comments on Zillow |
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Zillow will certainly make a splash. Does it offer what some consumers want? (Or, when it cleans up some data and gets out of beta, will it?) You bet!
Will it "replace" the professional work of a REALTOR(r)? Not for a consumer who understands (or who can be trained) that *data* is not *knowledge*.
Zillow is a portal to all sorts of data that has been hard for consumers to find. Some of the data is limited; some may even be the proverbial 'garbage' (as in garbage-in-garbage-out). If the sources for data that Zillow scrapes are out of date or irrelevant, consumers won't find the Zillow experience as adding much value. But even if the data is terrific (and Zillow claims it will dynamically learn and update its data), consumers who need or want a 'guide' will need or want a REALTOR(r).
Consumers who don't, won't. It is all about choice for consumers.
Those of us who cannot explain to a consumer that we offer more than data are doomed to fail, whether Zillow succeeds or not. Those of us who can explain that we are worth every penny of our 2%, 3%, 4% or whatever will succeed. No matter what Zillow does. (And don't underestimate these folks: the Zillow People *will* eventually have the best data they can find and will make it as easy to use as possible. No gloating at this stage, please.)
Zillow is a(nother) wake-up call that we are in the SERVICE business, so if the only 'service' we provide is to deliver data we may feel some downward pressure on pricing. If we are offering other "services" we better sell ourselves correctly. Need a wake-up call? Zillow may be the double-espresso you need. Figure out what services you provide (or *if* you provide any services).
Look at all the Zillow publicity as the opportunity to explain the difference between knowledge and data. Zillow is only one of the people / entities that will eat *your* lunch if you are not careful. Let's be careful out there....
Sandy
Sandy Mattingly Associate Broker, Attorney, e-PRO
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I am responding to a reply that asked if Realtors will
feed the mouth that bites them. I think you have to
go with the flow and adjust as the market adjusts. I
was wondering how I could advertise on the site. A
few years ago people would have said you were crazy to
allow people access to the MLS info but about half my
business comes from doing just that. I have a feeling
Zillow will be successful but it still can't provide
the customer service that Realtors can. It may very
well cause a paradigm shift though. I would like
everyones' thoughts on what that shift might look like
and how we can profit from that shift!
Wayne Long
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Never underestimate a thirty-something tech CEO with the backing of
wide-eyed venture capitalists. Never say never.
I think it would be a mistake for us to take Zillow.com lightly.
Gregg Wysocki
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I've been trying for 2 days to find out if one of my listings is over priced
or under priced. It doesn't exist in Zillow via search. The search always
returns "too many houses to display" or "We're sorry..." but not ever show
any actual data? I did find it by going to the map search and zooming down
to the block. From there, it was very close in estimating the market value
on my home. Although the comps weren't the greatest, I think it got lucky in
getting something in the ballpark.
Steven Hong
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Doug Whitehouse wrote:
< Zillow like all the others is looking for REALTORS(r) to work "with"
them. It could be that they want Realtors and lenders to support them
by advertising on their site. It begs the QUESTION "WILL REALTORS(r)
FEED THE MOUTH THAT BITES THEM?" >
Here, straight from the horse's mouth at Zillow, is exactly what Doug
wrote about! This was in Realty Times this morning, written by
Blanche Evans, and it seems to hit the nail on the head with regard to
what Zillow expects from the Realtor community.
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"Zillow UnderZestimates The Real Estate Industry
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It's very clear who Zillow's target market is -- Wall Street, because
CEO Rich Barton just can't seem to keep away from the subject of
agents' commissions.
Full Story: http://realtytimes.com/rtapages/20060209_zillow.htm ."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I truly hope agents realize what this company is all about BEFORE they
spend one single cent on any advertising with them!
Ann Cummings
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>I would also suggest that, if the public accepts property values found
on Zillow, it will cause an immediate >drop in property market value by
approx. 11%.
I checked out their website today and it totally supports Lenn's
findings and in one case was off by 20%. Let the press publish how
inaccurate it is and its credibility will go down the toilet. Not
surprised to find how it can't distinguish custom homes from tract homes
in the same neighborhood and gave huge discounts as a result. Worse,
it's information does not match tax records for recent sales. What a
mess but scary that users will believe it.
Regards,
Bruce Hiatt
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This type of change in our industry due to technology and new "services" is
going to happen whether we like it or not. I say--try not to be threatened
by it! Use if for what it is worth. When your clients see it, and they
will, don't be defensive about it...be knowledgeable about it and be
able/ready to work with the information you can get out of it. This type of
consumer instant gratification on the net MAY put major pressure on other
internet-based services, such as HouseValues. One huge benefit might be a
significant reduction in fees that outfits like HouseValues charge!
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Here are some specific examples. I just completed 5 quickie CMAs for
delivery this Saturday and I thought I'd check them against Zillow to see
how close they really are. I use a traditional method of locating sold
comps in the MLS in the vicinity of the subject property and then make a
judgment based upon what I know about the neighborhood, the condition of the
property, etc. Here's how it came out:
My Estimate Zillow's Estimate
Example #1 $350K-$400K $495K
Example #2 $375K-$390K $395K
Example #3 $415K-$435K $422K
Example #4 $370K-$400K $365K
Example #5 $540K-$570K $580K
Overall--NOT BAD!!! In Example #1's case Zillow failed to account for the
lack of a double lot (split-able), which the house next door had, but my
subject property did not. Additionally, the volume of data available
immediately is impressive. If I used Zillow as the data source for my
quickie-CMAs, I could probably do them in about half the time! AND be just
as accurate!
Rowland Fellows
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>>> Jim posts: I would appreciate further discussion on Zillow and how
to position ourselves as this vast Home Valuation Machine makes its muscle
felt. Perhaps NAR is working something up? Thanks.
I had a discussing just today on a listing appt. I tried to explain how
they work, but didn't seem to be getting very far with the seller. I
finally explained that the mortgage company for the buyer would insist on an
appraisal, and - that being the case, if they thought Zillow was right, but
the mtg co would not take the Zestimate ;-) why didn't they fork over $300
bucks and see if Zillow was right?
They declined. They also listed at the price I recommended. When it's all
said and done, if it walks like a duck, and it quacks like a duck, you can
be pretty sure it is DUCK. My guess is they will cause us some grief,
chaos, misery and despair, but they will not last.
Anything based on inaccurate information won't, can't last. So, we'll have
some issues with this for a bit, but it will go away, just like the others
did. The bottom line is that until mtg companies will take these people
seriously, nobody else will either. Get a zillow estimate and try to deal
with me on one of my listings and see how far you get.
My .02 don't be scared, be informed, and then go forth and multiply that
information. People aren't stupid. They wish their house was worth what
Zillow says, but if they can't sell it for that, and the word gets out, then
what happens to Zillow? I give them 6 months, 12 max.
Paula Bean, REALTORR
e-PRO certified Internet Expert
Certified Real Estate Consultant
Carib Gulf Realty 407-447-9080
http://www.HomeOrlando.com
Saul's note:
Their first round of funding is reported at $32,000,000. They will be around for more than 6 to 12 months.
Saul
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From: Jim Lee [mailto:Jim@KnoxvilleMLS.com]
Congratulations, you've just been "Zillowed!" which could soon take it's
place as a new word for unrealistic pricing, i.e. "They tried to Zillow me
on the price but I knew better." or "We've had our house for sale 6 months
with no offers, I think we're Zillowing ourselves on the price.
Better than being "Enroned" however. ;-)
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I'm affraid if unrepresented sellers used the Zestimate in this area to
establish an asking price I'd be buying lots of property myself at 75% of
market value. Maybe I'd become a zill-yun-air....? hmmmmmm.......
Doug Garner
Rowland Fellows
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> The Zillow site doesn't support my browser. Not consumer friendly
> in my opinion.
> Richard Yeager, e-Pro
>> What Internet browser do you use?
>> Philippe Furlan
On Mac OS X, Zillow.com does not support Safari, OmniWeb or Shiira.
It has rendering problems with Opera and is tolerable on Firefox,
Netscape and Internet Explorer.
Remarkably unimpressive, so far.
- Stephen Ellis
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Mark Jay wrote:
> I'm hearing that they are more oriented toward
>selling "services" to REALTORS-- in some sort of lead harvesting and
>grooming model-- rather than directly providing brokerage services.
>
>Without doubt the Zillow crowd is VERY smart. It seems they are employing
>an iterative approach to their product development-- what's been called the
>"ready, fire, aim" approach. They get their "thing" out there and then
>refine along the way with market driven re-aiming.
Is it possible their business model will appear to be aimed at "selling"
the use of their service to Realtors on the ground in all 50 states? Is it
possible that while doing so we will be aiding them with their actual goal
-- to have those local and knowledgeable Realtors refine their database
with our input? Through our interaction with them could we give them the
localized information they need to create a more effective database?
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Sounds very much like what most communities do when they periodically
update the local property assessments: Gather the recent recorded
transaction data, factor in any permits for home improvements, adjust
for regional economic growth, inflation & market history, and come up
with a new Assessed Value for tax purposes. In my experience, these
Tax Values are usually below current market value & subject to appeal
by any homeowner who feels they were unfairly assessed (too high, of course).
The old method of examining homes physically for reassessment
vanished with the growth of communities many years ago. New
construction assessments rely heavily on $/sq. ft cost estimates &
recent market prices. Land values must be factored in as well by
anyone who attempts valuation by computation.
Ask any experienced appraiser what they think of this Zillow
exercise. The valuation algorithm may be "cool" to data crunchers &
nerds but I would not rely on it for my home valuation or a valid
listing price! I am reminded of the classic Engineer's approach to
property evaluation.
At 07:53 AM 2/8/2006, Mark K quoted Zillow:
>* We took county transaction histories, tax
>assessments, etc., and then had math, stats, and
>computer science brains build a valuation algorithm on
>top. It's very cool.
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>Inaccuracies aside for the moment, the current Zillow site is a
>money loser if all it's going to do is provide free
>information. Like an agent with no
>sales, we all know that can't last forever. Where do they go from
>here? What are the "forthcoming programs for real estate
>professionals" that they state?
>
>Rich
Sign up and be among the first to know; I did.
http://www.zillow.com/feedback/RealEstateProviderSignup.z?origin=Home%3AHome
"When we say "consumer first" we understand that real estate
professionals play a huge role in buying and selling a home. That's
why we hope you'll participate in our forthcoming programs for real
estate professionals. Be the first to hear the details about our
programs by completing the form below."
Maybe there will be a free "I want to Zillow You" T-shirt in it for us. ;-)
Jim, Future Zillowest???
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Ok, I've been a lurker a long time, but I want to share some of my experiences.
I have been in real estate about 3 years - long enough to understand a little
about the industry and short enough to remember the experiences of other
industries. I was in health care management when the HMO's came to town.
Everybody said that doctors' services were special, personal, and offered high
service and that the HMO's wouldn't have a chance. What happened was that the
HMO's got the doctors to join their panels so they could say to the consumer
that "our panel offers Dr. Excellent and Dr. Great." Then the HMO's cornered
the consumer market and the doctors found out that patient loyalty could be
bought for about $25 a month. Physician income took a dive and patient load
increased. Do we have a better system with non physicians making decisions
about health care? I doubt it, though the whole health care issue is wrought
with challenges. My point in posting is that if physicians who are highly
educated with high barriers to entry into their field have been unsuccessful in
protecting their income, what is going to happen to realtors with low barriers
to entry. We each better be identifying and promoting our value proposition to
consumers. Just my $.02. lea
Lea Deo
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Lynda wrote in part:
So, assuming that you can't roll back the tide, consumers are getting used
to having information available to them on the net. The more of it, the
better. More description, more photos, floorplans, etc.
Mark Jay:
Agreed! In fact at some point as available bandwidth, software and
hardware continues it's trajectory of getting better AND less expensive
we'll be able post video files to listings.
Lynda continues:
So, if the major brokers pull out of MLS, will they also stop offering this
information to
the consumers via the web?
If they don't, let's assume that they pull out of MLS but continue to list
all that information on their own corporate websites a la Weichert.com.
What stops Zillow from scraping the details about inventory from that
website and then just adding sold info from tax records?
Mark Jay continues:
You're right. Brokers especially the "bigs" and "really bigs" will
continue to develop and deploy ever more feature rich and sophisticated web
experiences as points of differentiation.
As the bigs sites become more and more unique that uniqueness will make it
easier and easier to assert copyright on EVERYTHING including the offering
price. Everything except the bare address of the property and the highly
inaccurate assessment information will be the copyrightable intellectual
property of the broker creator and anyone who "scrapes" and reposts will
get cracked.
I too am just exploring possible permutations. I can see as this thread
develops with other participants I maybe had Zillow's business plan-- at
least short term-- wrong. I'm hearing that they are more oriented toward
selling "services" to REALTORS-- in some sort of lead harvesting and
grooming model-- rather than directly providing brokerage services.
Without doubt the Zillow crowd is VERY smart. It seems they are employing
an iterative approach to their product development-- what's been called the
"ready, fire, aim" approach. They get their "thing" out there and then
refine along the way with market driven re-aiming.
The managers of the existing infrastructure in our industry are ALSO very
smart-- the leadership and ownership of the regional powerhouses, the
leadership and "hired guns" of the franchise systems and NAR will make sure
that wherever the "tipping point" is they will do their best to be on the
up side no matter what side that is.
In the end, somehow the crucible of intense competition will result in a
melding together of "old guard" AND the advant-guard into something that
will look like a little of each.
Mark Jay
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I think Zillow's short term effect is that it is going to create a
problem in negotiations with buyers and setting listing prices. In my
market, some Zestimates were quite good but many were FAR off--like a
million bucks!. Its going to take a LOT of explaining with both buyers
and sellers to get beyond that number they see on the Zestimate. Easily
enough done of course, but the Zestimate does damage by creating a false
idea of value that some will want to hold on to. The site is billing
itself as an authority. We have to prove that it is NOT. Though I do
think that their algorithms will develop and get better.
Their Zestimate is fun, impressive looking, and if it were pulling the
right comps, scary. I bet that when they get access to the MLS and
solds, which is certainly not far off, they will find a way to allow
consumers to chose the most appropriate comps. That is when it gets
really scary!
As for Doug Whitehouse's thought about not feeding the hand that bites
us, it will be hard to avoid. Their participation in Google Adwords has
guaranteed that many of us are already supporting their venture, whether
we like it or not. Those of you who use Adwords, are you able to
prevent your ad from appearing on specific sites, and are you willing to
block your ad from Zillow? My bet is that most advertisers wont bother
to opt out of Zillow.
--
Maureen Francis
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Inaccuracies aside for the moment, the current Zillow site is a money loser
if all it's going to do is provide free information. Like an agent with no
sales, we all know that can't last forever. Where do they go from here?
Are they the next Home Gain suckering agents to pay for potential buyer and
seller leads? Do they attempt to try and match buyers and sellers directly
and bypass agents entirely? Is it a straight advertising site, I already
see Weichert ads on the site (and if you're from Weichert that isn't a
criticism, just an observation). What are the "forthcoming programs for
real estate professionals" that they state?
It's easy to bash and dismiss now because of all the errors we've seen in
the last few days. It will never be perfect but better programming and data
acquisition will correct a lot of the current valuation problems. It's a
learning process and they're learning quickly. Instead of retesting more
properties to see how far off they are I'm more interested in trying to
figure out what battlefield they're going to meet us on.
Rich
Richard A. Iarossi
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Yes, I got Zillowed myself this morning, said my own crappy house
is worth 301K.
If it were really worth that I probably would have a sign in the
yard by tonight.............
Al in CT, JIM
Saul's note:
Sounds like you were "reverse zillowed" Al.
Saul
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>Take YOUR company, and the other top 5 brokers out of MLS and what will you
>have left of an MLS? I will certainly work as a business to business tool
>for the brokers who HAVEN'T withdrawn but it will be anywhere NEAR as
>powerful a tool for EBAs or entities like Zillow or R.com. My guess would
>be that the top 5 companies in every MLS in north America probably make up
>well over a 50% share collectively.
Mark,
I am comforted by your post, but keeping in mind what Zillow's (or some
other entity's) goal would be.....it is to get the data. Correct?
So, assuming that you can't roll back the tide, consumers are getting used
to having information available to them on the net. The more of it, the
better. More description, more photos, floorplans, etc. So, if the major
brokers pull out of MLS, will they also stop offering this information to
the consumers via the web? If they don't, let's assume that they pull out
of MLS but continue to list all that information on their own corporate
websites a la Weichert.com. What stops Zillow from scaping the details
about inventory from that website and then just adding sold info from tax
records?
I'm just trying to carry all our ideas out to the farthest point my
imagination will allow :-)
Lynda K. Bloom
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