The National Market

Updated data through December 2008, showed continued broad declines in the price of single-family homes with 13 of the 20 metro areas showing record rates of decline.  Average home prices across the US are at similar levels to what they were in the 3rd quarter of 2003.  From the peak in the 2nd quarter of 2006, average home prices are down 26.7%. 

The composite index of 20 metropolitan areas showed a decline of 2.5% from November to December 2008, an increase from the decline of 2.3% from October to November.  The composite year over year decline was 18.5%.

The Weakest and Strongest Markets

The weakest markets in terms of year over year declines are from the sunbelt.  Three markets, Phoenix, Las Vegas and San Francisco have given back 34.0%, 33.0% and 31.2% respectively of the value of homes since last December. Incredible!!! Dallas and Denver were the strongest markets, showing declines of 4.0% and 4.4% from last year.

The NY Metro Market

The New York metropolitan area showed a decline of 1.7% in the period from November to December, an increase from the 1.6% from October to November. The annual decline in the NY area measured 9.2%.

Opinion and Analysis

While there is much talk locally of how much prices have fallen, and they have fallen significantly, the decline in this area is generally less than one-half of the national rate of decline.  I anticipate that our local NY metro market will turn  upward before the nation as a whole, but our rate of increase will be less than some of those markets that have fallen so very hard.

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