In an not unexpected report, the Case-Shiller Home Prices Indices showd recorded declines in the prices of single family homes across the US.  This data is for the period ending November 2008, what will be hopefully will be viewed as the darkest period of the financial crisis we are now going through.

The 20-City Composite index shows an annual decline in prices of 18.2%.  From the prior month, the 20-City Composite index was down 2.2%.

Is there any good new here?  If you are buying or selling a home in the New York area the prices are far more stable, along with Dallas, Denver and Charlotte (the best performing cities).

New York area prices declined by 8.6% year over year and by 1.6% from October to November 2008.  New York’s index level is currently the highest at 190.04, indicating that home price are still 90% above their 2000 levels.  While we are still facing declining values in this region, home sales are starting to pick up as reported by the National Association of Realtors last week.

The report also importantly shows that while delinquencies increased, the rate of foreclosures started in both Prime and Sub-Prime loans declined in the third quarter from their second quarter levels.  Also as a measure of consumer confidence, the reported that the number of people with plans to buy a home in the next six months increased in the  third quarter from their second quarter levels.

The strongest towns are South Orange, Madison and Maplewood with absorption rates of 5.9%, 7.3% and 7.5% respectively.  The weakest towns are Union, Chatham and Westfield at 16.6%, 15.4% and 14.1% respectively.

We are still feeling the effects of the last quarter 2008 slowdown in activity as it usually takes a minimum of 30 to 45 days from Contract to Closing.  There are alot of shoppers in the market and I believe we will see some significant drops in these numbers by the end of the 1st quarter ot 2009.

For all of the details and numbers click here.

The National Market

Updated data through Octoer 2008, showed continued broad declines in the price of single-family homes with 14 of the 20 metro areas showing record rates of decline.  The composite index of 20 metropolitan areas showed a decline of 2.2% from September to October 2008, an increase from the decline of 1.8% from August to September.  The composite year over year decline was 18.0%.

The Weakest and Strongest Markets

Three markets, Phoenix, Las Vegas and San Francisco have given back more that 30% of the value of homes since last October. Incredible.  They showed annual declines of 32.7%,  31.7% and 31.0% respectively.  Dallas and Charlotte, NC were the strongest markets, showing declines of 3.0% and 4.4%, from September to October 2008, respectively.

The NY Metro Market

The New York metropolitan area showed a decline of 0.9% in the period from September to October, the same decline from August to September. The annual decline in the NY area measured 7.5%.

Opinion and Analysis

While there is much talk locally of how much prices have fallen, and they have fallen significantly, the decline in this area is generally less than one-half of the national rate of decline.  I anticipate that our local NY metro market will turn  upward before the nation as a whole, but our rate of increase will be less than some of those markets that have fallen so very hard.

See more information on me web site www.JayNadelson.com.