• Archives
November 2008
• Nov. 29, 2008 - Vacant Home Sales now identifies Short Sales and Bank Owned Properties
• Nov. 27, 2008 - Motivated Real Esate Sales and the Effect on Home Prices
Motivated Real Esate Sales… See JayNadelson.com to see what I have to say about home prices.
Today a long Thanksgiving post about the RPX Index and how it breaks new ground in isolating the effect of Motivated Sales (read foreclosures) on home prices in general.
The Radar Logic RPX Home Index is a single value representing the price per square foot paid for residential real estate in a defined Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). It is designed to provide an accurate reflection of the values paid in actual arm’s-length real estate transactions. Prices are currently published for 25 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in the United Statest. A composite price index is also published.
A monthly report is presented at the end of each month with a two month lag. August’s report was published on October 31st and I will present some of the findings.
The composite index declined 18% between August 2008 and August 2007, and 2% between August and July 2008. The index for the New York Region declined 6.8% between August 2008 and August 2007 and 0.4% between August and July 2008. It is comforting to note that these results are in line with the numbers reported in the Case Shiller Report.
They have introduced the concept of Motivated Transactions that I believe really gets to the heart of what is going on in the Real Estate Market today. They define Motivated Transactions as liquidity driven transactions from financial institutions, foreclosure service firms and foreclosure auction sales.
They believe that a large portion of the declines in the single family housing indices is related to these Motivated Transactions which they estimate take place at a 28% discount to other arm’s length transction.
The most most interesting statistic is that the percentage of motivated sales v. other sales. In the Arizona MSA (the weakest market) motivated sales increased from 4.6% to 35.5% of all sales from August 2007 to August 2008. This explains why this is among the weakest housing markets.
In the NY MSA, motivated sales increased from 1.0% to 3.4% from August 2007 to August 2008. This explains why the price declines in our region are less severe than that being experienced by the rest of the country.
For seller’s, this still means that Motivated Transactions are affecting the value of your home. For buyer’s, this means that only 3 or 4 of every transaction is from a Motivated seller and from experience, I can tell you that much of discount in price is reflected in the poor condition of foreclosure properties.
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• Nov. 26, 2008 - Mortgage Rates Drop 18 bp according to Bloomberg
Bloomberg's web site today shows that 30-year convential mortgage rates dropped 18 basis points (100 basis points = 1%) from yesterday to today to 5.81%. They only change their reporting once a day and I am sure we will see their reported rates go down further tomorrow. I hear from the Mortgage Guy at my office (he hates to be called that) there are adjustable rate mortgages with rates as low as 5.25% today.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment fell in November to the 3rd lowest levels ever, the only lower figures where in the spring on 1980, that’s when the Dow was at 850. At the same time the Consumer Confidence Index rose in November. Is it better or worse than last month. It depends if you or someone in your family just lost their job or thinks they are about to. For more informative and data, check out my website.
Have a great Thanksgiving!
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• Nov. 25, 2008 - Fed to buy Freddie and Fannie Paper - This is huge for the housing market
The Fed said it would buy up to $100 billion in debt issued by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Banks. It also said that it would buy up to $500 billion in mortgage-backed securities backed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae ("the GSEs").
This is huge for the housing market. While the rates of Treasuries have fallen to historically low levels in a massive flight to quality, the paper issued by the GSEs have stubbornly refused to rally, and continue to trade at wide premiums. The market was buying 10-year Treasuries at a yield of 3% and bypassing 10-Year government guaranteed FNMAs at 4.5%. Why? Because there was a perception the government guarantee wasn't ironclad.
Now the Fed will buy the GSE paper and sell treasuries, making a 1.50% spread on the transaction. Treasury Secretary Paulson, the great arbitrageur is showing his Goldman Sachs roots in this trade. Everyone should be doing this trade, but doing so requires room on a corporate or bank balance sheet. The Fed has virtually unlimited room to do this trade. The result is that the Treasury - Mortgage spread will narrow.
The key point of this is that the rate the GSEs pay for new mortgages is determined by the price its debt trades at in the open market. I would expect that by this time next week, 30-year mortgage rates will fall at least 25 basis point to around 5.75%. What will that mean to housing prices. Lower monthly payments will equate to an immediate increase in value of existing homes of 3%. As mortgage rates continue to fall, housing values will be bolstered. You should download my mortgage calculator and check the numbers yourself. |
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• Nov. 22, 2008 - Barron’s Article on Bargain High End Homes
Dod you see the Barron’s article on how ‘Luxury Homes’ (over $5MM) are going begging in this environment? Well, it is here now in a lower price range. In Millburn/Short Hills, Summit, Livingston, Chatham, Madison and Westfield not a singe home with an asking price over $2MM has gone under contract since Sept 28th. That's two months. The buyers have gone on strike. In that same time 28 homes with asking prices from $2MM to $5MM have been listed. Two more were listed at prices of $9.5M and $12.9MM.
Are you looking for a bargain on a high end home? Contact me.
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• Nov. 21, 2008 - Sheriff’s Sale Foreclosure of Millburn and Maplewood Property Scheduled
The Sheriff’s sale/foreclosure of a Millburn and a Maplewood property is scheduled for December 9th at the Essex County Courthouse. The properties, 880 Ridgewood Road in Millburn and 10 Lexington Avenue in Maplewood are both single family homes in residential neighborhoods. The global economic problem is also a local one as families are losing their homes. Earlier this year, I purchased a single family home in Millburn at the Sheriff Sale. I rehabbed the home and now it is the feature listing on my web site www.JayNadelson.com.
If you are interested in knowing more about the process of buying at the Sheriff sale or would like my assistance, contact me.
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• Nov. 20, 2008 - Multi Family Short Sale in Morristown
I have a new customer who was looking for investment properties in the Morristown area. I showed them all of the two families in that area and we found a fully rented short sale that has positive cash flow after paying the mortgage and taxes. We looked at the property twice, once at night and then again in the day.
We presented an offer today, and the indication from was that it was sufficient for the bank. We are waiting for the final approval. They required that the buyers get pre-qualified for a mortgage by Countrywide and they are looking at a 7 3/8% rate with 20% down. The rate is high because they are not planning on using it as a primary residence. Our local Weichert mortgage specialist indicated that now you need to put 25% down to get a favorable rate on a multi-family home.
With the property in Westfield that we are negotiating on, we have narrowed the gap very signigicantly. Unfortunately at this time, my customers are focused on getting ready for a trip to Asia and I have to wait 10 days to try and push this further along.
See more at my website... jay.nadelson.com
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• Nov. 19, 2008 - Nero Fiddles while Rome Burns
That’s the headline in the Roman Times 2,000 years ago (approx). The NY Time reports the Congress held hearings while the Auto Industry goes into Chapter 11. Didn’t they learn when they let Lehman go under? What are they thinking. The elected member of congress(well many of them have been sent back home) have no idea what is going on and I find it disturbing. I had dinner with a friend tonight who is involved in the Maritime business. Ships that three months were leased for $100,000 a day (yes, a day) are now going begging for $5,000 a day. There is no cargo moving around the world. Commerce is coming to a standstill. The people who own these boats borrowed money based on being able to lease them. Where are the banks going to park all of these repo’d cargo ships? There are thousands of boats that have lost $60,000,000 in value. All of this information scares the hell out of me.
Visit my website for more Real Estate News at Jay.Nadelson.com
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• Nov. 19, 2008 - Housing Starts down 4.5% last month
As long as we have an overhang of unsold properties on the market, housing start will continue to fall and should continue to fall. All of my buyers are looking for bargains and I can show a lot of inventory of Vacant homes. I have a list of Vacant Homes for Sale. Buyers are looking for bargains and there are many out currently available. When you can buy a home for significantly under the cost of building one, the smart customer buys at a discount. When there are so many discounts, why build a new home. It is basic economics. Buy at a discount. When the discounts disappear as they most certainly will, new home construction will start to pick up again. |
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• Nov. 18, 2008 - Foreclosure/Vacant/Bank Owned/REO/Short Sale and Distressed Homes now on Web Site
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Foreclosure/Vacant/Bank Owned/REO/Short Sale and Distressed Home listings are now posted on the web site www.JayNadelson.com Go to the Vacant Home Sales tab. This took quite some time to do. I have been working on getting this up for about a week now. I took at every new listing in these towns at least twice a week and scour them to determine which ones are distressed. Most are vacant for some reason or another. If they are vacant, don’t you think that someone owns too many houses. There have to be some great bargains here. That’s my job. Show you the best deals in the market. Let me know what additional towns I need to get up in this link. |
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• Nov. 17, 2008 - FDIC Plan Would Refinance Troubled Loans
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. proposed Friday to spend $24 billion of the $700 billion bailout funds to help 1.5 million households avert foreclosure.
The FDIC would guarantee 2.2 million modified loans, mostly loans made to borrowers with weak credit or small down payments. Borrowers would get reduced interest rates or longer loan terms to make their payments more affordable. Monthly payments wouldn’t total more than 31 percent of home owners’ pretax monthly income. Taxpayers will absorb half of the loss if a borrower defaults. Loan servicing companies will be paid $1,000 for each loan they modify.
The Treasury Department opposes the idea. Neel Kashkari, the Treasury Department’s assistant secretary for financial stability, says the financial bailout promised to ultimately earn taxpayers money. Bailing out home owners in the brink of foreclosure has no direct payoff for taxpayers, Kashkari says.
Source: The Associated Press, Alan Zibel (11/14/08)
For more insight into today's real estate market visit
JayNadelson.com
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• Nov. 17, 2008 - 422 Millburn Avenue, Millburn
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Real Estate in Millburn/Short Hills focusing on Bank Owned, REO, Foreclosures, Short Sales, Bankruptcy and the art of negotiating the best price for my real estate buyer or real estate seller.
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