I have had a chance to look at the absorption rates after a week hiatus while I tried unsucessfully attempted to beat my son at golf.
There was a significant decline in homes on the market in all counties and in some towns the active inventory dropped between 8 and 10%. Less and less homes for sale over the last month. Is the inventory starting to get worked off or are people taking homes off of the market waiting for better times. This all means that there is less to choose from. I could get interesting in January when people start to realize how afforadable homes are especially when you can 30-year fixed financing under 5%.
The Case-Shiller Report was released today reflecting housing activity through October. It showed record drops in home prices nationwide. I have not had a chance to review the numbers in detail, and I will do so shortly. The drop does not surprise me as October 1st represents the beginning of the current economic crisis as far as I am concerned.
• Dec. 12, 2008 - Is the Market Turning? What do the indicators say? Rates Down, Confidence Up, Foreclosures Down.
Look back at my post of Nov 25. 30-Year Mortgage rates were 5.99% according to Bloomberg then. Today they are reported at 5.54%. HUD loans with 3% down are being issued at 5.50% today. How is that for affordability!
The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its index of confidence for December rose to 59.1 from November’s 55.3, aided by the fall in one-year inflation expectations to their lowest in five years. This is at its highest since September largely due to the collapse of gasoline prices, deep discounts by retailers and tumbling inflation expectations.
According to RealtyTrac Foreclosure activity in November hit the lowest level we’ve seen since June thanks in part to recently enacted laws that have extended the foreclosure process in some states, along with more aggressive loan modification programs and self-imposed holiday foreclosure moratoriums introduced by some lenders.
• Dec. 6, 2008 - Tme to Buy That First House. Time to Get Off the Fence!
An article in the NY Times today by Ron Lieber says The Time May be Right.
See it at http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/06/business/yourmoney/06money.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=buy%20that%20first%20house&st=cse
The first few paragraphs read…
“Five or 10 years from now, when the financial crisis has ended and housing prices are up smartly once more, we will look in the rearview mirror and realize that we missed a golden age for first-time home buyers.
Then, everyone who sat on their down payment savings accounts for a few years too long will kick themselves for not taking advantage of what may turn out to be the buying opportunity of a lifetime for those who can qualify for a mortgage.
Unfortunately, we do not know when this golden age will begin, because we will be able to identify a bottom to the housing market only with the benefit of hindsight. But as it does with the stock market, the moment will probably arrive when everyone is feeling the most pessimistic.
That moment is certainly getting closer. Housing prices have fallen drastically from their peak levels in many areas of the country. Rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are already close to 5.5 percent, and this week there were suggestions that the federal government might try to drive them down to 4.5 percent, a truly incredible figure to be able to lock in for three decades.”
For all of you thinking, thinking, thinking. Now is the time to get off the fence. www.jaynadelson.com
• Dec. 5, 2008 - Foreclosures Hit Ridiculous Levels
I hate to start the weekend with a post about negative news, but I won’t pull any punches here. This is bad news and hopefully our team in D.C. will find a way to right the ship. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that the share of loans in the foreclosure process rose to a record 2.97 percent from 2.75 percent the prior quarter and 1.69 percent a year earlier. It gets worse. The rate of one-to-four-unit residential loans at least one payment past due rose to a seasonally adjusted 6.99 percent in the third quarter, up from 6.41 percent in the second quarter and 5.59 percent a year ago.
Add the numbers together and 10% of all mortgages in the USA is past due or in foreclosure. Even so, I am calling for home prices to be up 5% from current levels by January 1st 2010 as measured by Case Shiller or RPX. Take your pick. We are at or very near the bottom.
• Dec. 4, 2008 - Union Township NJ Short Sales and Bank Owned. Over 60 listings added.
I started looking at Union, where I get a lot of requests. Over 60 Bank Owned and Short Sale properties, both Single- and Multi-Family. So many listings that I decided that I needed to split them between under and over $300,000. Check out the values at Vacant Home Sales.
• Dec. 3, 2008 - Mortgage Rates Fall, Mortgage Applications Up. More Bank Owned & Short Sales
Mortgage rates continue to fall sharply. Bloomberg reports a nationwide average for 30-Year Fixed at 5.64%, that is down 35 basis points (0.34%) since the Fed announcement last week. In my office Weichert is offering morgages at 4.99% with one point.
The Morgage Bankers Association index of mortgage applications to purchase a home rose 38% last week. As I predicted here, the Fed’s announcement sent the rate on 30-year fixed mortgages to a 3-year low. This is a big gift to people who are ready to buy homes a levels significanly lower than they were a year ago.
I am going to go out on a limb here and say that home prices as reported by Case Shiller and RPX will be at least 5% higher by Jan 1, 2010 than they are today in the NY metro area.
On my website http://www.JayNadelson.com I have posted Bank Owned and Short Sale properties in the following towns at the request of a customer. They are Basking Ridge, Warren, Watchung, New Providence and Berkeley Heights. Go to the Vacant Home Sales tab.
• Dec. 1, 2008 - Springfield and So. Orange NJ added to Vacant Homes List.
I have added Springfield, NJ and South Orange, NJ to the growing list at Vacant Home Sales including a list of Short Sale properties and Foreclosure Properties.
I have also added information on the New Jersey Smart Start program which is designed to aid low income persons buying their first with down payment assistance at a rate of 0%. Click here for that information.
I have also added information regarding mortgage programs for active Police and Firefighters who can purchase 1 or 2 family homes with below market rate mortgages on the Mortgage Info page.
For more New Jersey Real Estate Information see JayNadelson.com
Real Estate in Millburn/Short Hills focusing on Bank Owned, REO, Foreclosures, Short Sales, Bankruptcy and the art of negotiating the best price for my real estate buyer or real estate seller.
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