Developments in the Real Estate Market in Harrisonburg-Rockingham County

 
Charting and graphing various statistics about our market recently has revealed significant changes in our market.  For instance, check out this graph:

As you can see, the number of sold residential properties has plummeted to a level not seen since the same period in ’03 to ’04 and prior to that all the way back to ’00 to ’01. 

 
Now, consider this graph:

As you can see, average and median Days on Market have zoomed to levels not seen since the MLS started keeping such statistics.

 Now consider this graph:

Obviously, listing and selling prices haven’t reacted yet to the realities of classical economics that we learned in ECON 101, i.e. that in an elastic market, an excess of supply, which we are experiencing right now coupled with a shortage of demand, (See the first chart above) will result in lower prices.   Notice, however, the Polynomial Trend Line MS Excel has plotted on the chart above.  It’s hard to see in this graph, but a four month projection of the Polynomial Trend Line shows a small projected downturn in prices based on past performance. 

This morning on the WSVA radio website, the news item below was posted:

VALLEY COULD BECOME HOUSING ANOMALY

Rockingham County 03/02/07 Central Shenandoah Planning District Commission's latest study shows parts of valley may find themselves in a unique position when it comes to the real estate market.

The Housing Costs Comparisons report says the local housing markets in this region could potentially experience increases in demand and prices that exceed those occurring in recent years. This would be due to competition for available housing between retirees moving from areas outside the region, the local workforce seeking to live within the region in which they work, local retirees from within the region seeking to stay in the area, and senior populations already within the region who are looking to downsize from their current housing.

I searched the SCPDC website for the full text of the report, but couldn't find it.  I emailed the SCPDC just now to ask them to fax or email it to me.  I'm wondering which "parts of valley" they're talking about. 

My thinking is that Harrisonburg - Rockingham County is one of those "parts of valley" they're referring to.  Our area is booming now with the coming SRI facility, the expanding enrollment at JMU, the plant expansions planned or coming online at Merck and Coors, and the healthy market for poultry products the area poultry plants are enjoying. 

I will post the details of the report when I receive them.