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I was starting a class today when one of my students asked me: "Is it true that this market is the worst
it's ever been? There are agents in my office who have been in the business 20, 25 years, and they are
saying this is the worst they've ever seen the market." I said, unequivocably: "NO! This market is not
the worst I've ever seen, and it sounds like the agents you are talking about have been sitting down
and 'drinking the Kool-Aid' with the news media." With all due respect to the third estate, bad news
sells; good news is a yawn (most of the time). Additionally, trying to quantify the entire real estate
market across the United States is like trying to give a national forecast. What would you think if you
turned on the weather, and the weatherman said: "It'll be cloudy today, mostly sunny, high of 90, low
of -10, showers likely, snow up to 4 feet, followed by freezing rain and tornadoes." You'd think the guy
was out of his mind! And you'd be right! Real estate markets are local in nature;not only are they local,
but within any given market area, there is usually a lot of diversity within that market.
My real estate students intinctively understand this when we talk about it, and I ask: "Do you have any
price ranges where you can't keep inventory? You still have more buyers than houses? What about
another segment of the market? Do you have a segment where sales are sluggish, because you have an
oversupply?" They nod in agreement, and here is the 'Aha!' moment--when I ask: "Do you have any
sellers who have a house to sell in that price range that is moving quickly...and they want to move into
a price range where sales are more sluggish?--it doesn't get any better than this--you get to sell in a
sellers' market, buy in a buyers' market, and finance at historically low interest rates." In my market--
north central Pennsylvania, primarily Lycoming and parts of Clinton Counties--are markets are not bad.
In fact, they are nowhere near as bad as I have seen them on other historic occasions. Some of our
price ranges are saturated and have an oversupply; one of the upper price ranges in Lycoming County
has a three year plus supply listed. But, some price ranges have a six to nine month supply listed;
which, going into the spring, isn't that bad. So...don't sit down and drink the Kool-Aid just because
someone asked you to--check out your facts first, and then you be the authority
in your own market.
Melanie J. McLane, ABR, CRB, CRS, ePRO, GRI, RAA, SRES, 32 year veteran of the real estate industry. Offering training, speaking and consulting throughout the industry, I teach everything from ABR to USPAP. Certified ePRO Instructor. To contact me, email me at: melanie@TheMelanieGroup.com or visit my website: www.TheMelanieGroup.com
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