George Livingston: Last Quarter was The Worst, This One will be Better, Positive Growth should start by December

MAITLAND, Fla. - The first quarter of 2009 was the worst of the recession, according to longtime area market analyst George Livingston, chairman emeritus of Orlando-area based NAI Realvest.

"The current quarter will be less bad, and we're already seeing signs of improvement, but we won't see positive growth until the last quarter of this year or the first quarter of next year," Livingston said.

"Initial recovery will be slow, full recovery won't occur until well into the next decade," Livingston said.

"Consumer confidence is low but it is getting better, and the same can be said for business confidence," Livingston said.

"Profits are improving in some cases. Banks should do better as we move forward and the third quarter should see broad improvement in corporate earnings," he said.

Livingston said housing should bottom by year-end, and recovery will be slow due to the drag of foreclosures. "When the housing market recovers, we won't see the sort of peaks we've seen in the past," he said.

The reason? "Unemployment will continue to increase through year-end," Livingston said. "Job creation will be slow.

Economic trends will continue to have a negative effect on most commercial real estate sectors, Livingston added, including retail, office, warehouse and distribution.

"Rental apartments should be among the first to recover," Livingston said.

For more information please contact:
George Livingston, Chairman Emeritus, NAI Realvest 407-875-9989 glivingston@realvest.com;
Janice Paiano, Director of Marketing, NAI Realvest jpaiano@realvest.com
Larry Vershel or Beth Payan, Larry Vershel Communications, 407-644-4142

About NAI Realvest
NAI Realvest, covering all of Central Florida, is a fully integrated commercial real estate operating company specializing in brokerage, development, investment, leasing and management, consulting and research services in the U.S. and worldwide. NAI Global is an international commercial real estate network with over 325 offices spanning the globe. Since 1978, clients have built businesses on the power of NAI Global's expanding network. Extensive services include multi-site acquisitions and dispositions, sublease, tenant representation, lease administration and audit, investment services, due diligence and related consulting and advisory services. To learn more, visit www.nairealvest.com.