Real Estate Blog for Palo Alto, Mountain View, California, and Surrounding Communities
• Apr. 10, 2006 - Is This a Bubble?
More and more we read about the real estate bubble. It seems our newspapers cannot get enough of it. I suppose it generates revenue for them. The San Francisco Chronicle is one of these, as witnessed by yet another article along the same lines this past weekend. But somehow they are not living in the same world as I am. Consider this:
Listings in Santa Clara County currently number around 2800. It is true; this is approximately twice as many listings as this time last year. But in April of 1990 (when the real estate market did, in fact, drop) there were 14,000 homes for sale in Santa Clara County! Sellers were frantic. Now that was a real estate bubble!
It is true that only about 40-50% of listed homes in the Palo Alto/Mountain View area are currently receiving multiple offers, whereas almost all were this time last year. And homes are less likely to receive 10 or 15 offers... it is now more likely that a home will get just three or four. But even one extra offer will frequently drive the price up over the asking price, and it almost certainly will come in with better terms than if there is only 1 offer.
Also, open houses are still extremely busy. DESPITE the incessant rain, it is not unusual to get 50-100 buyers through an open house.
From our weekly meetings it is apparent that many homeowners are waiting until the weather improves before putting their property on the open market. For frustrated buyers, there are listings in the grapevine, so don't give up!
Clearly there have been some changes. The market has slowed some and we seem to be moving towards a more balanced market than we have had for the past two years. However, from my vantage point, the real estate market remains a robust one, not one that is in its death throes. Don't believe everything you read! Check with the pros, those in the trenches, to get the real story as to what is going on!
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• Mar. 30, 2006 - America's Top 10 Cities
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Relocate America (www.relocateamerica.com ) has just released their list of the top cities in America in which to live. They are: 1. Naperville, IL; 2. Cary, NC; 3. Boulder, CO; 4. Ithaca, NY; 5. Charlottesville, VA; 6. Ann Arbor, MI; 7. New York, NY; 8. Columbia, MO; 9. State College, PA; VA 10. Bend, OR.
It is interesting that not a single one is from California. In fact, there are only 4 Californian cities (Benicia, CA; Redding, CA; Roseville, CA; San Francisco, CA; Yorba Linda, CA) in the top 100! What is going on here? Have we lost our “edge?”
Well, part of the answer may be in the selection process itself. First, a community must be nominated by a current or a past resident or “other individuals familiar with the community benefits”. Then Relocate-America reviews the nominations and rates cities according to certain perceived benefits such as people and neighbors, the schools, low crime rates, the beauty of the area, activities such as museums, theaters and sports, economic health, employment opportunities and affordable housing…
Oh, Oh!! That might be the kicker!! Affordability in this area ranges between 15 and 20%, depending on which statistics you use. Starter homes in Palo Alto and Menlo Park begin at around $1,000,000 and Mountain View prices are not far behind. It is extremely difficult for first time buyers to come up with a down payment substantial enough to purchase a home in this area or to earn enough to afford the enormous monthly payments. People who have bought with the leverage provided by adjustable mortgages have to be aware that interest rates are rising! The potential for difficulties down the road is everywhere.
In the meantime there is no end in sight for this crazy real estate market. Sellers, if you are even thinking of selling, this would be a good time to do it. Buyers, find a good real estate agent to help you, but don’t get discouraged. I have buyer clients who decided last year to step back and wait for the ‘bubble’ to burst. So far it hasn’t, and it may never happen. In the meantime they are getting farther and farther behind. If they had bought last year they would already have 15-20% equity in their homes due to appreciation. The moral of this story is: If you want a place to live, go for it, but go for it wisely.
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• Mar. 2, 2006 - Which Way the Wind Blows
The median price of an existing home in California in January increased 13.8 percent and sales decreased 24.1 percent compared with the same period a year ago, the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.) reported. (For complete article go to http://www.rismedia.com/index.php/article/articleview/13682/1/1/ )
What does that mean to somebody living in Palo Alto or Mountain View or the immediate surrounding communities? In an area that is famous for its micro climates, it isn't too much of a stretch to understand that the real estate market also has micro climates. All you have to do is look at the zip code maps in the local newspaper every weekend to see that sales and appreciation can vary widely, even within the same city.
It is early in the year, and there is no established pattern just yet as to which way our area will go this year. Some areas are still hot, while others have cooled substantially. However, consider the following: homes that are listed under $1,200,000 in Palo Alto and under $900,000 in Mountain View, if prepared and marketed correctly, are still getting multiple offers in almost all cases and selling above asking price. Prices seem to be continuing to climb, despite the slowdown in sales activity.
Houses in the $1.2 million to $2 million range, especially in Palo Alto, are still selling briskly, although many only get one or two offers. On the other hand, it is clear that the market has slowed in the over $2 million range. Those prices are softer and those houses are staying on the market longer. Still, after being in the business since 1980, I am convinced that this area is very resilient. The fantasic climate, the proximity to Stanford and other great institutions, and the quality of life in general make this area a draw for people all over the world.
There is no right or wrong time to sell, except what works for you. If you are thinking of selling your home, be sure to work with an experienced agent who is familiar with your specific market so that you can accomplish your aims and maximize your bottom line. That is what counts in the long term. |
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• Feb. 9, 2006 - Beware of Wolves in Sheep Clothing: Zillow is Here!
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I read today that Zillow Company is making available on line free estimates of a homes value. It is completely anonymous and it is free. All you have to do is enter some basic information about your house and push a button, and up pops the value of your home.
Now I am wondering what is wrong with me!! After 25+ years in the business I still find myself agonizing about the value to place on a residence. I tour the home to see its condition and floor plan. I study the comps… homes in the same neighborhood and with similar characteristics that have recently sold. I sometimes even brainstorm with other agents to get their opinion before finalizing mine. And, I am not alone. Most of the truly professional agents I know do the same thing. Now along comes a company that can do in seconds, without ever even seeing the house, what it may take me hours or days to accomplish.
Zillow chairman, Rich Barton, has said Until now, finding out a current market value of any home – whether its yours or the one your want to bid on – has been quite difficult. Duh? I have breaking news. It still is!!
Pricing a home is one of the most critical components whether you are on the buying or the selling side. In my mind it is dangerous and naĂŻve to believe that a computer generated valuation will generate anything more than a general ballpark figure, with a wide margin or error. It may be a useful starting point, but I would not want to bank on its accuracy. For that you need an experienced agent who knows the area, who can sift though all the variables, and who can come up with a figure that is accurate to within just a few percentage points. Anything less than that will cost you!
For more information go to:
http://www.rismedia.com/index.php/article/articleview/13419/1/1/ or visit www.zillow.com and try it for yourself. If it works, it will make my job a whole lot easier!
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• Feb. 6, 2006 - Coldwell Banker Turns 100
Very few companies in any industry make it 100 years. But Coldwell Banker has beaten the odds.
We have such a sense of pride and accomplishment in turning 100 years oldor as I like to say, 100 years young, explains President and CEO Jim Gillespie. To be at the top of our game at this stage in our history is just tremendous.
One of the reasons I work for Coldwell Banker is that is always strives to offer the clients more than other brokerage firms offer. They are very much in tune with the trend in real estate to be internet driven, and are providing both their agents and the clients they work with the tools they need to maintain the competitive edge.
Coldwell Banker originated in San Francisco shortly after the great earthquake in 1906, but it has thrived and continues to grow. In recent years the company has added more than 70,000 sales agents and 1,500 offices to become an international powerhouse.
Even so, Coldwell Banker never loses sight of its original mission, to provide honest assistance to people in need of housing. With special emphasis on agent training and technology, Coldwell Banker earns and maintains the trust of people everywhere.
For more information on Coldwell Banker's history and current philosphy, go to: http://www.rismedia.com/index.php/article/articleview/13371/1/1/
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Selling real estate in the mid San Francisco peninsula is unlike selling real estate in any other area. Just as the geographical area is famous for its microclimates, the real estate landscape has its own microclimates, each with its own idiosyncracies. An experienced agent will be in tune with the subtle variations from one subarea to another. But it is always changing. In this blog I will attempt to capture some items of interest to buyers and sellers alike, and to have some fun as well (see ""Fun Stuff"). If you have information you would like to have posted on this website, please email your suggestios to Lmercer@Lmercer.com.
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