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Real Estate Blog for Palo Alto, Mountain View, California, and Surrounding Communities

• Apr. 10, 2006 - Is This a Bubble?

More and more we read about the real estate bubble. It seems our newspapers cannot get enough of it. I suppose it generates revenue for them. The San Francisco Chronicle is one of these, as witnessed by yet another article along the same lines this past weekend. But somehow they are not living in the same world as I am. Consider this:

 

Listings in Santa Clara County currently number around 2800. It is true; this is approximately twice as many listings as this time last year. But in April of 1990 (when the real estate market did, in fact, drop) there were 14,000 homes for sale in Santa Clara County! Sellers were frantic. Now that was a real estate bubble!

 

It is true that only about 40-50% of listed homes in the Palo Alto/Mountain View area are currently receiving multiple offers, whereas almost all were this time last year. And homes are less likely to receive 10 or 15 offers... it is now more likely that a home will get just three or four. But even one extra offer will frequently drive the price up over the asking price, and it almost certainly will come in with better terms than if there is only 1 offer.

 

Also, open houses are still extremely busy. DESPITE the incessant rain, it is not unusual to get 50-100 buyers through an open house.

 

From our weekly meetings it is apparent that many homeowners are waiting until the weather improves before putting their property on the open market. For frustrated buyers, there are listings in the grapevine, so don't give up!

 

Clearly there have been some changes. The market has slowed some and we seem to be moving towards a more balanced market than we have had for the past two years. However, from my vantage point, the real estate market remains a robust one, not one that is in its death throes. Don't believe everything you read! Check with the pros, those in the trenches, to get the real story as to what is going on!

 

 

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• Apr. 21, 2006 - Real estate agents quo vadis?

Posted by Anonymous
Do yourself a favor and read the interesting debate underway on www.realblogging.com regarding the bubble and the value of real estate agents. It really shows the large opposing opinions of consumers and realtors.
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• Apr. 22, 2006 - Response to Posted Comment

Posted by Anonymous
Of course I am aware that there are differences of opinion regarding the "real estate bubble." And I am not saying that this will not happen anywhere. In fact, there are signs of it happening in a number of markets, including some where I happen to own income/investment properties.

However, I do believe, and with good reason, that the mid-peninsula is remarkably resilient and a sudden and dramatic decrease in housing prices in this area is unlikely. That does not mean that there will not be a market correction... I do expect the market to slow down at some point (in fact, I thought it would happen LAST year!) and prices may sag a bit. But barring some dramatic downturn in the economy or some other catastrophe (like a major earthquake, another terrorist attack or something similar in scope) I do not expect prices to drop to where they were in 1999 or even in 2002, which was an "off" year in our local real estate market.

The two worst real estate markets I have experienced since I moved here in 1972 were in the early 1980's and again in the early 1990's. Both were preceded by remarkable run-ups in market value, not unlike what we experience in the past two years. But in the early 1980's interest rates for first mortgages ran between 16% and 18%.. it was almost impossible to sell a house unless the seller could wrap a mortgage or offer seller financing. In the early 1990's a major recession swept across the country, and tech companies were exceptionally hard hit. There were 14,000 homes for sale in Santa Clara County in 1991 as people lost their jobs and could no longer afford to live here. Yet even in those dismally bad selling markets, the prices did not drop to the levels that preceded the run-up.

I had a client in the early 1980’s who refused to buy a house because he thought all those people who had paid too much for their homes in the late 1970’s were going to lose their shirts when they sold. He was going to wait for the market to crash and then buy a house. Well, he waited, and waited, and waited, and eventually moved out of the area because he had let his chance slip by.

In our current market, interest rates are still at 40 year lows (although higher than last year) and the economy is reasonably sound. As long as this continues, there is no reason to believe the bubble will crash. Could I be wrong? Of course. I am only expressing an opinion, but it is one shared by many who are in tune with the local economy and the local real estate market.
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Selling real estate in the mid San Francisco peninsula is unlike selling real estate in any other area. Just as the geographical area is famous for its microclimates, the real estate landscape has its own microclimates, each with its own idiosyncracies. An experienced agent will be in tune with the subtle variations from one subarea to another. But it is always changing. In this blog I will attempt to capture some items of interest to buyers and sellers alike, and to have some fun as well (see ""Fun Stuff"). If you have information you would like to have posted on this website, please email your suggestios to Lmercer@Lmercer.com.

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