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Why do short sales matter so much? In a nutshell, "Silicon Valley short sales" are a precursor of real estate price drops. That is, where you find a lot of short sales, you will see "downward pressure" on pricing. Where you see few or no short sales, you will not find this same pressure.
Most short sales do NOT sell before going to foreclosure. There's a lot of hype about buying your first home in San Jose as a short sale to save money, but there's no savings if you wait three months and the lender never approves the deal. (Or just as bad, the lender waits so long to say yes that the home is no longer worth what you offered on it.)
Below please find a list of homes being marketed as short sales in Silicon Valley.
What trends do YOU see?
| Active Listings of Short Sale Single Family Homes, Condos, Townhouses |
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3/26/2008 |
4/8/2008 |
4/15/2008 |
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| Los Gatos |
5 |
8 |
9 |
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| Monte Sereno |
1 |
0 |
0 |
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| Saratoga |
0 |
0 |
1 |
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| Los Gatos Mtns |
3 |
2 |
3 |
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| Cambrian Park |
59 |
73 |
53 |
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| Santa Clara |
56 |
68 |
59 |
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| Campbell |
13 |
23 |
28 |
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| Cupertino |
1 |
3 |
2 |
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| Los Altos |
0 |
1 |
1 |
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| Sunnyvale |
50 |
69 |
54 |
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| Blossom Valley |
196 |
251 |
200 |
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| San Jose (all) |
1534 |
1882 |
1667 |
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 There are so many "boundary issues" around Los Gatos that it's mind boggling. For newcomers to the area, it's already diffucult to understand how the school district lines do not follow the town boundaries.
Then there's the whole issue of "mailing address" vs being "in the town". The 95033 zip code means "Los Gatos Mountains" and also means "not part of the actual Town of Los Gatos". No voting rights. No police (sheriff instead). And so on.
The Los Gatos mountain schools are highly regarded. Normally, the elementary schools feed, eventually, to Los Gatos High School. The schools are a leading guage of property values, so the question of which schools is a BIG deal physically, emotionally, and economically. The schools are a leading factor in Silicon Valley real estate values.
Just now I got a Google alert that some kids in the Lakeside Elemenary area of the Los Gatos Mountains are actually being bussed to Rolling HIlls Middle School in Campbell. Rolling HIlls is a good school but it's nowhere near downtown Los Gatos (or the mountains). Instead, it's in the area where Campbell, Los Gatos, and Saratoga meet - over near Pollard and Quito Roads.
So have a look at the Merc's article, "Mother sues Los Gatos Union to get son into Fisher Middle School" and see what you think!
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Yesterday I saw this beautiful lavender colored vine, wisteria, adorning an old home near St. Mary's Church in downtown Los Gatos (Almond Grove District area). The photo was taken with my Treo, so the quality is not great, but you get the feeling: perfect blue skies, vibrant colors, classic old Craftsman style home. A perfect spring day in Los Gatos.
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Our son, Brian, is knee-deep in trying to decide where to go to college next year. He's been accepted at a couple of schools here in California, the "sunshine state", as well as some in chillier places - Seattle, Chicago, and Vermont. My siblings, who now live in Massachusettes, keep telling him how lucky he is to be in California, where even our cold days aren't so cold.
To that end, Brian showed me a you tube tourism video that may not capture all the diversity and high level of education here in Silicon Valley, but certainly does convey the fact that this is a state where there's lots to do and enjoy. I liked the video and wanted to share it with you, too.
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 Is there a "best time" to buy or sell a home in Los Gatos, Saratoga, or San Jose? That's a question I get a lot. The answer is not so clear as many people would like.
Often we have some seasonally predictable patterns. Let's look at them.
Winter: inventory tends to be very low in winter (from late November until somewhere between New Year's, the Superbowl, and Valentine's Day). Each year it's slightly different, but in that "dead of winter" (as much as we have it here in The Valley of Heart's Delight) is usually the time with the lowest number of sales, the best prices for buyers, the most "absorption" for sellers, the best interest rates, but the LEAST inventory to choose from. So you may get a good price as a buyer, but may not have much to choose from. Sellers may have the best odds of selling a home during this time because there are so few homes to choose from, and some buyers are anxious to close during the calendar year for tax or other reasons.
Spring: What's best for sellers? Most years (but not all) that "best window" is from February through April. On a good year, it may continue into May. Some years, that "best window" for sellers is just a couple of weeks in March. Other years, it moves around and could be earlier, later, longer or shorter. Or just not happen at all. For buyers, spring brings a new influx of inventory and often decent rates. As more buyers come on the market, interest rates tend to creep up most years (a supply and demand issue).
 Summer: Somewhere around June, though, the tide begins to turn and by mid to late summer, sales have slowed considerably and sometimes prices even drop by about August. It varies from year to year. This can be a great time for buyers - lots of inventory to choose from, Interest rates may not be their cheapest, though.
Fall: Many years, there is a second rally (besides the one that happens near March) with a mini flurry of activity between Labor Day and Halloween. That can often be an excellent time to sell or to buy (more inventory than August or November/December).
There are pros and cons to each time on the market for both buyers and sellers. Depending on your home, any time can work. Traditionally, spring is viewed as best for both because there is a good supply of inventory but it doesn't linger too long. So in some ways, spring is the most balanced market. Any time of year CAN work, though. So do not tie your buying decision soley to something like the school year, the interest rates, or the holidays. Call me if you'd like to discuss your individual situation.
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 Please have a look at my latest market update for the town of Los Gatos, broken down by zip, for this week. (Data from Altos Research, a subscription service I have. Disclaimer: they use list prices for their reports.) The following links are to pdf files for these reports.
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Live in Los Gatos:
A blog about Los Gatos real estate, homes, houses, condos, townhomes, housing market, neightborhoods, history, events, businesses, parks, schools, photos, issues, and lifestyle.
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