How's the Los Gatos & Monte Sereno real estate market? Things appear to be improving. In another few days, my official sources for stats will produce reports telling us how February really was. But I went ahead and crunched them myself to give you, my readers, a little jump.
Los Gatos is full of micro-markets but this is a broad overview of "area 16", which includes all of Monte Sereno and Los Gatos (and a couple of slivers of San Jose 95124 and Campbell 95008). Rather than just look at the year-over-year view, I thought it would be interesting to see a bigger range of time. So have a look at the month of Febrary dating back to 1998. Often, it's a "hot month" once we get past the Super Bowl. You may recall that 2000 was a crazy, extreme seller's market. Note how low the inventory was then - just 66 single family homes on the market! Current inventory is about half of a year ago (and that was high) and is on the low side, but not extreme.
Days on market are still too long for sellers, which implies that a lot of homes are being picked over but staying on the market. Closed sales are still down from a healthier, more balanced number but again, not extreme. - fairly close to the last couple of years.
Encouragingly, the average and median sales prices are coming up, and so's the list price to sales price ratio.
Altos Research (to which I have a subscription) breaks down the data a little differently, using cities and zip codes rather than MLS numbers. Here have a look at what's happening with inventory levels in Los Gatos (95030 and 95032) and Monte Sereno (95030):
Altos also uses median list prices. Here's their graph for pricing in these three parts of "area 16" - as you can see, prices are fairly flat:
Next, we'll break it down by median list price quartile within each of those three zones. Below, find list prices in Monte Sereno over the last year, by price quartile. Interestingly, the 1st and 3rd quartile appears to have been changing downward the most while the highest priced homes seem to be faring the best (remember, though, these are list prices not sold prices).
Now Los Gatos, 95030, where again the highest median list price seems to be holding better than other price points:
:
And finally Los Gatos, 95032:
In this last group, it looks more clear that the higher the price point, the less the list price appears to be experiencing downward pressure.
Finally, Days on Market in these three areas by quartile.
Monte Sereno, 95030, is mixed.
Los Gatos, 95030 - where it's really not getting easier to sell a home, overall:
Los Gatos, 95032, things are not so dire as elsewhere - perhaps because prices are lower here than in the other two areas. This seems to be born out by the fact that the highest priced homes are experiencing the longest DOM.
What about the role of school districts in all of this?
Much of 95032 is in the Campbell Union High School District. So I did a little more crunching on my own, looking at school district rather than zip code.
For active listings right now in "area 16" again, here's what I found for DOM (days on market)
(1) All of "area 16" with Los Gatos Saratoga High Schol District - DOM = 185
Same but a maximum list price of $1.5 million - DOM = 133
(2) All of "area 16" with Campbell Union High School District - DOM = 71
Same but a max list price of $1.5 million - DOM = 66
(3) For all of "area 16" without regard to school district, the DOM = 152
Same but with max list price of $1.5 million - DOM = 106
(Monte Sereno is 99.5% Los Gatos Schools with only the tiniest sliver falling into Campbell Schools.)
So this is a little surprising - we tend to believe that homes with Los Gatos Schools always sell better than those with Union or Moreland. But is that the case?
Let's drill it down once more to a more specific price range and see, among the active listings, what's happening.
Price range: $1,000,000 to $1,400,000. I added the average square footage of the home since the results surprised me and I thought this might be an important factor.
(1) LGSHSD - DOM = 100 (av SF = 1904)
(2) CUHSD - DOM = 42 (av SF 2826)
(3) All schools - DOM = 82 (av SF = 2185)
Within this band of pricing, it appears that the homes may be moving faster in the less expensive part of Los Gatos. Why is this? Perhaps because it's taken a bigger correction and is now viewed favorably. There could be lots of factors. We could continue breaking it down by neighborhood, by age of construction, and many other factors, including whether or not something was a short sale or bank owned property (which is a separate topic). It might also look different if we picked apart the pendings or solds this way, so this is not comprehensive, but is a general indicator that homes not in the most expensive part of town are selling easlier than those "closer in".
For help with understanding the home you want to buy or sell, please contact me!
What's the market doing? As always, it depends on which part of the market. For an overview of the Los Gatos Real Estate Market, my Silicon Valley Real Estate Report will update you by home type (house or condo/townhouse). In January, how things seemed depended a lot on what you were comparing it to. Clearly it's a lot better than a year ago - but we have far to go.
Single family homes (houses and duet homes) in Los Gatos - prices are slipping (thought this isn't the case in all parts of the Los Gatos real estate market), sales were up as compared to a year ago, inventory is still low, DOM is shrinking and the list price to sales price ratio is rising slowly. So another month of mixed signals but clearly some "green shoots" of hope.
Condominiums and townhouses in Los Gatos - prices are rising (condos had taken the biggest hit during the corrections earlier, so this is overdue), days on market are still terribly long and everthing else is close to status quo.
Trends At a Glance
Jan 2010
Previous Month
Year-over Year
Median Price
$675,000
$561,500 (+20.2%)
$370,500 (+82.2%)
Average Price
$679,251
$590,738 (+15.0%)
$412,833 (+64.5%)
No. of Sales
5
8 (-37.5%)
3 (+66.7%)
Pending Properties
10
12 (-16.7%)
5 (+100.0%)
Active
48
36 (+33.3%)
55 (-12.7%)
Sale vs. List Price
96.9%
97.2% (-0.3%)
104.7% (-7.5%)
Days on Market
140
103 (+35.2%)
146 (-4.0%)
To get the whole scoop on the market for Los Gatos (or Monte Sereno, Saratoga, Cambrian Park, Almaden Valley) or anywhere in San Jose or Santa Clara County, please click on the links above!
I just updated my Belwood of Los Gatos website with what has closed in the last three years in that part of town (including the Surmont and Belgatos areas). At the top of the page is a live mls-searching map which shows what's available in that area. Right now there's just a duplex for sale there, no houses whatsoever! Scroll down to see first sales in 2009, then 2008, and finally 2007.
Some of the numbers are disturbingly low (disturbing if you are a homeowner). Some of the lowest prices have been homes which were distressed sales (short sale or foreclosure) or which were not well staged and easily accessible. Hard to see, cluttered, unstaged homes simply sell for a lot less than homes which are well presented and easily viewed. In 2009 we saw a rise in foreclosure activity in and near Belwood. This may keep up for a couple more years until the current mortgage crisis is cleaned out.
Lightning is flashing, thunder is rumbling, the rain is coming down and instead of hibernating, you are trying to sell your home. With a front yard saturated and soupy, what can you do to make your home inviting and pleasing to the serious home buyers who brave this kind of soggy winter weather?
Winter home selling poses some challenges, and all of them are exaggerated in a year like this El Niño one with lots and lots of rain. Right now (as I write this) we are in the middle of a 7-10 day deluge and I thought potential home sellers might wonder what do do if they have got to sell now. Below are a few tips for selling your home in Silicon Valley when the rains seem relentless:
Make sure to keep your sidewalks, driveway, walkways and other hardscape as free of debris as possible - this will require ongoing attention but will lessen the chances of anyone getting hurt slipping while walking to or near your home, and the cleaned up appearance will make your home more appealling too.
Provide an extra mat or two at the entrances to the home so visitors can wipe their feet clean. Depending on your home's layout, you may need to place the extra mats indoors.
If you require that guests remove their shoes* (this is something to weigh carefully as there are pros and cons to it - some will refuse to enter if required to remove their shoes, for instance), place a small bench or chairs near the entry so they can do this comfortably and safely.
With rainy and overcast weather, homes can look darker than usual. Make sure to open curtains fully for daytime showings, use bright light bulbs and make every effort to brighten up the rooms of your home as much as possible. (For instance, trim bushes so that they do not obscure any part of the windows.)
Keep your home warm so that buyers and their agents are comfortable. If the home is too cold, they will hurry out and your chances of selling your property will go down.
With really big storms, sometimes we lose power, communications may be cut (internet and phone lines), and it's possible that buyers will show up with their agent after being unsuccessful in reaching you when calling ahead. If this happens, be welcoming but be safe. Ask the agent to use the electronic lock box (that way the visit is recorded for your agent and you are insured that he or she really is a real estate licensee) to obtain a key and then enter.
If you are going to be home during the showing (not usually advised but sometimes unavoidable), you may consider making a toasty fireplace fire - just make sure it's not a winter spare the air day first! Candles can be a problem since they may be knocked over or touched by little visitors, but it may be possible to use them in a way that "warms up" the home without causing any risk - so be careful should you decide to employ candles for showings!
Some homeowners make freshly baked cookies and offer them to guests. Although warm cookies or bread won't cause an overpriced or dirty home to sell, it may help buyers to linger longer and begin seeing themselves in your space - and that's exactly what you want.
Selling in winter can be a bit more work but buyers who venture out in weather like this are truly serious. If your home is well priced, marketed and staged, you should still be able to get qualified traffic in to your home and receive good offers despite the torrents of El Niño.
My Santa Clara County Real Estate Report is now updated to include the data from December 2009 for Los Gatos, San Jose, and, of course, all of Santa Clara County.
From any of the links below, you can navigate to see the same info for he county as a whole or other areas (both cities and districts within San Jose such as Cambrian Park or Almaden Valley).
Los Gatos residential real estate prices are down year-over-year (10-20% for most homes). Los Gatos has mixed indicators - some numbers are better, some are worse. Have we hit the bottom yet? Some say yes, some think that there are further corrections still to come. Inventory is down, which puts pressure on prices. We will know better by mid-February or early March if this will be at all a typical spring home buying season.
Yes, I know, it's mid-December and you really don't want to even think about doing anything with your home other than decorate it for the season (and your visitors) right now. But if you want to sell your Los Gatos home in 2010, it would be a very good idea to do a little planning now so that you can be ready to hit the ground running in January for the spring market and not be rushed.
What kind of "groundwork" can you do now that won't take a ton of time and be terribly inconvenient? My suggestion is to begin to create a plan of action for yourself. Start with the end in mind, such as "I'd like to be out of my house by April 15th" or whatever target you might have, and then back it up from there with various to do's. Jot down all the ideas first, such as pack up items not needed and put in storage, read market statistics online, pick a couple of agents to interview, plan for pre-sale inspections, do staging or decluttering work, schedule carpet cleaners, plant new annuals by front door, etc. Later you can organize them..
I am working with some sellers now who would like to have their Silicon Valley home on the market in mid-January. They've got a schedule for when we'll do the pre-sale inspections, and they intend to have the garage accessible (storage cleared so the inspectors can see what's necessary without calling for an "unknown further inspection due to stored personal belongings"). We know when the home will be show-ready, the photos and virtual tours can be shot and when we can go on the market. It's not a tight schedule but we have a basic roadmap.
If you're thinking of selling your home in Los Gatos, Saratoga, or San Jose this spring, give yourself a month or so between when you begin to get ready and when the sign's in the yard and the lockbox on your front door: in most cases, that's about how long it takes, however, things can move a whole lot faster if you need to rush. You can hire your agent before you begin all the prep work or you can hire your agent first and have guidance & help with the prep work - most do the latter but either way can work. Pencil it out ahead of time and the process will go smoother all the way through.
For now, then, don't stress. But do get out your pencil and paper. Jot out your basic goals and what you think it will take to accomplish them. If you have an agent (or two or three) you'd like to chat with, now's ot too early to cal them and begin to discuss staging, comps, services offered, etc. Do that much and you can pick up the rest in January, and you'll have peace of mind that you did not leave it all until the last minute!
The Silicon Valley Real Estate Report, including data for Los Gatos homes for sale and sold in November, is now ready. Below please find a summary for the key points and a link to view the entire report.
The Los Gatos condo and townhouse market had been improving in months prior but seems to have suffered a little setback in November:
For the Los Gatos single family home market, there's noticeable improvement. Inventory is declining, prices are nudging up from earlier this year (and also from a year ago in many parts of the local market). The trend appears to be moving toward a more balanced market overall. There remain some mixed indicators, though - hinting that the recovery is not happening uniformly across all price points, neighborhoods, etc.
General Comments for the real estate market in Santa Clara County
The median price for single family, re-sale homes (houses and duet homes) surpassed $600,000 for the first time since August 2008.Inventory remained in a downward trend in November: down 66.7% compared to November 2008.Pending sales were up a whopping 90.4% year-over-year.
For San Jose, Saratoga, Monte Sereno, and the rest of Santa Clara County, please visit www.popehandy.rereport.com and pull the specific area that interests you (for districts within San Jose, please first select the city of San Jose, then choose Cambrian Park, Almaden Valley, etc.)
A blog about Los Gatos real estate, homes, houses, condos, townhomes, housing market, neightborhoods, history, events, businesses, parks, schools, photos, issues, and lifestyle.
Mary Pope-Handy
Realtor, CRS, ABR, E-Pro
Sereno Group Real Estate
214 Los Gatos-Saratoga Road, Los Gatos, CA 95030
DRE # 01153805
877 397-5391 toll-free
