The Los Gatos & Monte Sereno real estate markets cooled a bit in August 2010 with significantly fewer fewer sales. This is true both for houses as well as for condominiums and townhouses. A word of caution: although the median and average sales prices are rising, this does not mean, necessarily, that individual homes are rising in value. It may signify just that more expensive homes are selling.
Here's a quick look at the numbers from my newly updated Real Estate Report (click the links for more info on these categories or for anywhere in the greater San Jose or Santa Clara County areas):
Sales fell 21.2% from the month before, and were up 4.0% year-over-year.
Prices improved in Aug 2010 with the median sales price rising 5.3% from July, up 22.9% compared to a year ago. The average price rose 5.7%, a year-over-year gain of 14.8%.
Inventory fell 1.4% from the previous month, and was down 4.6% from last year.
Big drops in sales combined with significant rise in inventory makes this market especially soft right now. Sales dropped a whopping 40% from the month before, and also fell 40% year-over-year.
Prices did improve in Aug 2010 with the median price climbing 1.2% from the previous month, down 15.6% compared to a year ago. The average price slipped 12.7%, a year-over-year drop of 16.2%.
Inventory climbed 12.7% from last month, and was up 6.9% year-over-year.
Sales declined very dramatically 50% from July, and fell 60% year-over-year.
Prices improved in Aug 2010 with the median price climbing 53.0% from the previous month, up 37.9% compared to last year. The average price rose 32.0%, a yearly gain of 19.4%.
Inventory fell 28.9% from last month, and was up 10.3% year-over-year.
The mountain communities often walk to the beat of a different drummer, and this month is no exception. Sales increased 200% from the month before, and were down 14.3% year-over-year.
Prices fell in Aug 2010 with the median price dropping 17.5% from the previous month, up 30.0% compared to last year. The average price rose 4.1%, a yearly gain of 36.8%.
Inventory rose 6.1% from last month, and was up 75.0% year-over-year.
For specific information on your home or neighborhood, please contact me!
If you are soon relocating to Los Gatos or new to town, you may hear people drop the names of places and feel a little lost. In some cases, it may be trouble spelling an unfamiliar name, in others that the same place is known by more than one name or that one name has several potential meanings. Here are some place names and local terminology you'll want to know:
Vasona - also Vasona Lake or Vasona Lake County Park: this one gets a lot of typos when people are trying to find it (I see them via the search terms people use to find this blog), sometimes typing in Verona or Vesona. This park is the largest in Los Gatos, consisting of over 100 acres, directly attached to Oak Meadow (which belongs to the town, while Vasona belongs to the county). The entrance to the park is on Blossom Hill Road close to University Avenue (don't try to enter off of Lark - that's a locked gate). More info on both parks. Seeslideshow of Vasona & Oak Meadow Parks here.
The Manor - also Blossom Manor or Blossom Hill Manor: this is a residential neighborhood bordered by Blossom Hill Road, Los Gatos Blvd, Los Gatos Almaden and Longwood. Homes in this area are in the Los Gatos School District. (See post and photos of this neighborhood.)
The Boulevard - Los Gatos Boulevard, which is the road that Main Street turns into as it heads towards San Jose. This is the area where normal shopping happens for many of the town's residents. It's where you find grocery stores, drug stores, fast food and other inexpensive restaurants, etc.
East Los Gatos - definitions vary, sometimes referencing everything from approximately Harwood Road to Highway 17, other times Harwood Road to Los Gatos Blvd. (Post on this topic.)
Downtown - usually references Main Street, Santa Cruz Avenue (north or south), University Avenue and areas closest to all of these. (Usually does not include areas as far as Highway 9, aka Los Gatos Saratoga Road.) Most of downtown is business related but there are some neighborhoods that are right in downtown too.
The Hill - Los Gatos has tons of hills, but "the hill" actually means the Santa Cruz Mountains and the pass through them.
Blossom Hill - can mean Blossom Hill School, Blossom Hill Park, Blossom Hill Road, or perhaps even the hill which is called "Blossom Hill". (If you traverse Blossom Hill Road, you'll drive up a little bit at one stretch between Camino del Cerro and Blossom Dale Drive - at this point you're up on the base of the hill which is Blossom Hill.) Yes, it is confusing.
Old Town - shopping center on University Avenue in downtown, once the site of the town's elementary school. (It's where you'll find the Border's bookstore and a number of nice shops and restaurants.)
In town - a contrast to "in the mountains" or perhaps "in a county pocket" but in the general area of the town of Los Gatos. There are areas with a Los Gatos mailing address but are not actually part of the town of Los Gatos. This is true for all of the 95033 zip code (which is in the mountains and reached via Hwy 17 - some of that is actually in Santa Cruz County and not Santa Clara County) as well as some of the county pockets in 95030 and 95032 (which are mostly "in town").
The Chart House - people still refer to the old Coggeshall Mansion on North Santa Cruz Avenue by that name, but the Chart House closed several years ago and had other restaurants at that site afterwards. It's a lovely old Victorian, one of many which initially lined that street but now the only one remaining. Initially it was a private home, then a mortuary, then a series of restaurants. It has a reputation for being one of the most haunted places in town. At this writing, it's available for lease.
The Museum - need to clarify which one because the town has two: an art museum (in the old firehouse on West Main) and a history museum (at Forbes Mill). They do share a website, luckily.
In the Schools - a phrase meaning that homes in a particular area are within the Los Gatos School District. Los Gatos has several school districts, including Union Schools (shared with the Cambrian Park area of San Jose) and Moreland Schools (shared with Campbell).
Almond Grove, Edelen, Glenridge, Fairview Plaza - older residential neighborhoods either in or very near to downtown Los Gatos. Many of these areas have homes dating back to the late 1800s. (To read about these and other neighborhoods (such as Surrey Farms, Strathmore, Belwood, Heritage Grove and many more), please click on this link for all the neighborhood posts on Live in Los Gatos.)
When Los Gatos, Monte Sereno or other Santa Clara County residents buy or sell homes here, one of the reports provided by the sellers is the Natural Hazard Report. In it, there's a statement as to whether or not the subject property is in an area of potential flooding if a dam were to give way.
Most of us are somewhat "downhill" of a reservoir or two, but not everyone is in an area that would be flooded should the dam burst. Today I found an online map that shows these areas and thought my readers might want to check it out: http://www.abag.ca.gov/cgi-bin/pickdamx.pl
The drop down menu will allow you to choose a city or town - Los Gatos is included in the southwest San Jose map.
Soon we'll have the numbers for the real estate sales in August in Los Gatos and Monte Sereno, but I'll give a little jump on that now by offering a peek at what is selling in the Los Gatos area generally and also how this week looks compared to the same day in years past.
For today's numbers I'm looking at houses & duet homes (not condos or townhouses) and am using the MLS "Area 16", which is Los Gatos and Monte Sereno (plus a sliver along the Campbell and San Jose border that may actually be in those cities). Also, the numbers reflect homes sold and closed in the last month - not in July, but the last 30 days, primarily in August.
Number of houses which closed escrow: 28
Number in Campbell Union High School District: 9
Number in Los Gatos Saratoga High School District: 19
Number of short sales: 0
Number of bank owned homes (REO): 1 ("in the schools", listed at 1.4 and sold at 1.22 mil)
Number of regular sales: 27
Sold in Los Gatos: 25 (1 of these is actually Campbell but with LG mailing address)
Sold in Monte Sereno: 2
Sold in San Jose: 1
Sold up to $1 million: 9 (2 "in the schools")
Sold between $1 million and $2 million: 16
Sold between $2 million and $3 million: 3
Sold for more than $3 million: 0
Absorption rate for all homes in area 16: 194 actives/28 solds = 6.93 months of inventory
Absorption rate for homes in CUHSD: 45/9 = 5 MOI
Absorption rate for homes in the LG Schools: 149/19 actives = 8 MOI
Absorption rate for all homes up to $1 million: 41/9 = 4.56 months of inventory
Absorption rate for homes priced between $1 and $2 million: 94 actives, 16 sold = 5.44 MOI
Absorption rate for homes listed between $2 mil and $3 mil: 28 actives/3 solds = 9.33 MOI
Most of the homes, then, are in the Los Gatos Schools area, and sold between one and two million dollars. A fair number still sold in the CUHSD area and under a million. The "sweet spot" in the market remains the most affordable homes - if you are selling a home with a market value of less than $1 million, the odds are pretty good that you will be able to sell your home. The odds move against you as the price rises. That makes buying a luxury home in Los Gatos or Monte Sereno very much a buyer's market generally - a very good opportunity for buyers of estate properties.
Next, the daily count. On our MLS I can get a snapshot in time of certain dates and see the breakdown of homes that were for sale and available and those in various stages of "pending sale". It's helpful because we know that August is often a slow month, but comparing it to the same time in prior years will help us see if it's slower than normal or if what we are seeing is seasonal. After the dismal sales figures nationwide for July, it is even more important to get a pulse on what's happening now.
For MLSListings.com, our local provider of the multiple listing service, the categories are as follows:
Status 1 = available, no contract on the property
Status 2 = sale pending but with a release clause (either a short sale where it's contingent upon lender approval or a release clause because the sale is contingent upon the buyer's home selling). These sales often do not close escrow, but status 3 and 4 sales usually do go on to closing.
Status 3 = sale pending with only the regular contingencies (loan and inspection, etc.) - may show these homes for backup offers only
Status 4 = sale pending with all contingencies removed - do not show for backup offers because the sale is very solid & close to closing escrow
Below is a look at the numbers for the Los Gatos and Monte Sereno area ("Area 16") as of August 23rd for 2004 to 2010.
Since many of the status 2 homes will not close escrow, I omitted them when figuring the ratio of pendings to active sales. At 1 in 5 pendings, it's pretty healthy, but below that the market is a bit sluggish. (Even in the hottest market, not all homes sell.)
As you can see above, inventory is up these last couple of years for August 23rd. But is that bad? Not if sales are keeping pace with the rise in inventory. You can see the very steady increase in the number of pending sales which include a release clause. Most of these are short sales.
The ratio of pendings to the more solid sales is actually pretty decent overall - only in 2008 was it below the 1 in 5 or 20% mark. Additionally, these numbers are a little conservative because eventually some of the status 2 homes will be sales which go through. By this yardstick, then, the Los Gatos area real estate market is fairly healthy.
How's the market? As ever, it depends on which part of the market we're talking about. For entry level houses in Los Gatos and Monte Sereno, it's pretty good. It's also a pretty balanced market in properties listed between 1 and 2 million and into the low 2's. If you want to buy a Los Gatos home for under a million, you may be facing some stiff competition. If you are looking to buy a $4 or $5 million property or more, the market is much more in your favor.
A lot of this imbalance has to do with cash. Luxury home buyers frequently purchase without a loan - perhaps financing it after the sale is completed. They are not so dependant upon getting a mortgage. Right now interest rates are crazy low (30 year fixes at 4.25 no points for a jumbo!). Home buyers getting in under a million virtually always do so with financing, and the extremely affordable interest rates are giving them more buying power than they had a few years ago. If interest rates were to shoot up, it would impact this segment of the market. The luxury home sales are really not much assisted by low rates.
Want help buying or selling a home in Los Gatos, Monte Sereno or nearby? Please call or email me. I'm happy to talk or meet with you to discuss your goals.
Mary Pope-Handy
Realtor, CRS, ABR, e-PRO, SRES, ASP, CNHS
Co-Author: Get the Best Deal When Selling Your Home in Silicon Valley Helping Nice Folks to Buy & Sell Homes in Silicon Valley since 1993 Sereno Group, Los Gatos
Saw this a couple of days ago - it's the site where Safeway used to be - and will be again by 2012. They had the fence back after the demo was completed and I was struck by how large the parcel was with no building sitting on top of it (and no parking lot too).
Many Los Gatos school children are either back in school or shortly will be back in the classroom. Technically, summer lasts almost another month, but the unofficial end of the season usually coincides with the academic schedule or Labor Day rather than the actual calendar date.
It's been a very cool summer, generally, one that didn't require a lot of air conditioning for most of us. Many days it felt more like spring than summer. My family and I just returned from a vacation to San Diego (which I highly recommend!), where we heard it was the coldest summer in 70 years. Sounds like all of California had an extra mild season!
There's still a little summer left to be enjoyed, though! If you have worked and busied yourself and wondering if you totally missed the boat on summer fun, it's time to take a break and sneak in some helpful R & R.
Here in town, you can enjoy several great "end of summer" events, several of which are no-cost:
Visit Oak Meadow Park on Saturday, Aug 28th for the "End of Summer Night Ride" with a pasta dinner, carousel rides and a train ride at the Billy Jones Wildcat Railroad.
Labor Day plans? Calvary Church of Los Gatos invites you to their Chill & Grill on Monday, Sept 6th from 11-3 (no admission fee - this sounds like a great event, please check via the link!).
Because Los Gatos is so very scenic, it's difficult to say which place in town is "the best" for photography. Here's a list of some of my favorite places to take pics of either the scenery or people.
Vasona Lake County Park and Oak Meadow Park are full of lovely vistas. Kids tend to beam when climbing on the airplane or park equipment too, making for some happy shots, to say nothing of taking a spin on the carousel or train! The lake itself is gorgeous - whether photographing scenery or people, it will likely look great from a paddleboat, sail boat or rowboat!
The wall alongside The Purple Onion (at Main and College) is charming and old and makes an especially wonderful background for images of children. (There's another wall, similarly old, along Los Gatos Blvd north of Los Gatos-Saratoga Road, too.)
Main Street by Los Gatos High School looking toward the Penthouse Apartments. The road bends and the coastal foothills rise up behind the old brick buildings - it's classic!
Los Gatos High School - view from the street looking across the lawn.
Any number of spots along the Los Gatos Creek Trail.
Old Town's beautiful arch along University Avenue, esp with a view of the old theater in the background (now the Wine Cellar and Border's).
The building formerly known as Trevese, Charts, the Charthouse - a lovely old Victorian on North Santa Cruz Avenue that was previously a home and then a mortuary prior to being a restaurant.
At ourdoor music events at various parks in the summer - catch Vasona Vibrations, Jazz on the Plazz or Music in the Park for wonderful "people shots".
The Farmer's Market on Sunday mornings and the adjacent park, which is filled with the dogs which aren't allowed near in the Farmer's Market so hang out on the periphery. Lots of things happening, colorful fruits, veggies, flowers, and often musicians too.
Along the ridge trail at Belgatos Park you can enjoy (on a clear day) a lovely view of the Santa Clara Valley and downtown San Jose.
Testarossa Winery's "Cave" and also the patio just outside. Love the old stones, the trees and views!
Any number of older buildings, commercial or residential, in the downtown area. Take your pic! There are Victorians, Spanish style, Craftsman, and many other types of charming buildings which could be the subject of your photo or a backdrop for people or pets. Favorite areas include these areas: Edelen, Almond Grove, Fairview Plaza, Broadway plus buildings right along or near North Santa Cruz or University Avenues.
A blog about Los Gatos real estate, homes, houses, condos, townhomes, housing market, neightborhoods, history, events, businesses, parks, schools, photos, issues, and lifestyle.
Mary Pope-Handy
Realtor, CRS, ABR, E-Pro
Sereno Group Real Estate
214 Los Gatos-Saratoga Road, Los Gatos, CA 95030
DRE # 01153805
877 397-5391 toll-free
Soon we'll have the numbers for the real estate sales in August in Los Gatos and Monte Sereno, but I'll give a little jump on that now by offering a peek at what is selling in the Los Gatos area generally and also how this week looks compared to the same day in years past. 
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As you can see above, inventory is up these last couple of years for August 23rd. But is that bad? Not if sales are keeping pace with the rise in inventory. You can see the very steady increase in the number of pending sales which include a release clause. Most of these are short sales.
Many Los Gatos school children are either back in school or shortly will be back in the classroom. Technically, summer lasts almost another month, but the unofficial end of the season usually coincides with the academic schedule or Labor Day rather than the actual calendar date.
Because Los Gatos is so very scenic, it's difficult to say which place in town is "the best" for photography. Here's a list of some of my favorite places to take pics of either the scenery or people.
