Grand Rapids, Michigan Prepares for the Next WAVE!

Much of the news in Grand Rapids, Michigan recently has focused on what's leaving the State.  The list has been quite extensive...people (Michigan had more people leave than move to the State last year), factories and jobs, and this past week, a sad new entry...Heartwell Mortgage Company, a longtime Grand Rapids mortgage lender announced that it is closing its doors.

You can imagine my surprise to experience a totally different side of this transition process this week.  I was involved in assisting a client to find temporary housing during a relocation move...TO GRAND RAPIDS, MICHIGAN!  As we toured apartment complexes which had furnished rental units, we visited the Woodland Creek Apartment complex.  As I drove up to the leasing office, I could tell they were busy...they were loading clients to go out on tour.  But I didn't know how busy.

When we finally met with the leasing agent who handled the short term rentals, she indicated that out of 60 units, only 1 was available.  I was shocked.  I asked her who was renting all these units.  She indicate that individuals who were relocating TO WEST MICHIGAN were largely responsible for the upsurge.  This was quite contrary to what I expected to hear.

Later that afternoon, over an early dinner with our clients, we had a fascinating discussion.  My client used a term that I had not heard before.  He indicated that Michigan, particularly West Michigan is poised for the 2nd Wave.  Understandably curious, I probed further.  What unfolded was educational...very, very educational.

It was a mini history lesson.  He began by explaining the rational by which companies make decisions regarding location and the viability of long term profits. 

Real estate is an important component in this mix.  In areas which have had record breaking appreciation rates, it becomes cost prohibitive for companies to bring in new hires and still remain competitive.  Consequently, the search begins to find real estate which will support the necessary framework for expansion. 

West Michigan is now considered a viable prospect for these reasons.  The cost of living in West Michigan is very reasonable.  We have a hardworking job core, many of whom are skilled laborers.  The jobs they used to do are no longer available, hence the painful transition which has forced hundred of thousands to leave the state to seek their fortunes elsewhere.  But many workers are also taking advantage of lay-off packages to get re-trained in new fields and technologies.  A quick drive through the downtown area of Grand Rapids, Michigan reveals that something is percolating under the surface.  There are several major projects going on and the development of the bio tech industry is rapidly expanding.

Grand Rapids, Michigan is slated to be the site of the first Green Built Hospital (Metropolitan Hospital's New Campus) and the first Green Built Museum (the New Grand Rapids Arts Museum) in the state.  In fact, it is estimated that Grand Rapids, Michigan has more more square footage per capita under LEED certification than any other city in the United States. What's even more extraordinary is that the leadership in donations and vision has been through the efforts of private donors and corporations in conjuction with the state government.  The people of Grand Rapids have decided to invest in their future rather than let events chart an uncertain course.  These are pretty heady accomplishments and are pre-views for the progressive attitude which is emerging in spite of the challenges we are undergoing.

I found a very interesting press release from UC Berkley about the concept of the 2nd Wave.  The author Kathleen Maclay discusses the traditional meaning associated with the 2nd Wave which usually refers to job outsourcing...which we have experienced in record numbers through the loss of manufacturing jobs.  However, Maclay ends the article with a quote that may well be describing what is poised to occur in Michigan.  Here it is:  (keep in mind this article was written in 2003)

• But all is not necessarily gloomy for the United States' economy, the researchers say.
• For example, outsourcing of service jobs may prove more costly to the economy than the earlier wave of manufacturing outsourcing, conclude Kroll and Bardhan. This, they say, would be the case if the economy does not generate enough technological growth to replace the jobs lost with new ones and workers eventually find new work in lower-wage occupations.
• "On the other hand," says Bardhan, "continuing innovation and technological advances could allow the U.S. and California economies to keep the 'cream' of new development and higher-value-added jobs at home, while more routine activities are outsourced."
• This was the pattern for high-tech manufacturing outsourcing of California's low-wage assembly jobs during a downturn that brought productivity increases in its wake and a wide range of opportunities in new service jobs, he said

 I'm excited about the prospects and opportunities that will emerge from the 2nd Wave...I think it's coming.  Are you prepared to ride it for all it's worth?  Governor Granholm recently named Grand Rapids, Michigan as a recipient for a $100,000 Grant to fund urban redevelopment as a Cool City.  The revitalization of urban communities is transforming the nature of life in the downtown area.  This 2nd Wave is poised to take Cool to a Whole New Level!

 Sneaker Warriors on the Move...

A Sneaker advertisement in the latest issue of Vanity Fair magazine  (June 2007) captured my imagination.  Coverse brand of sneakers to be exact.  A Sneaker Ad about Healthy Cultures and Creativity. 

Healthy Cultures...the definition  according to Converse:

"Healthy Cultures Nurture Creativity.  They help breathe life into the people who live within them.  Offer an array of perspectives to agree with, to fight against, to expand on or challenge."

"A Healthy Culture Welcomes Dissent.  Listens for the sound of new voices.  Supports original imaginations."

"Healthy Cultures are full of artists.  When hope dies, so does creativity.  When culture is lost, so is the Future."

"Indifference is the enemy.  Nothing is inevitable if you're willing to think.  Nothing is unattainable if you're willing to fight."

The ad which highlights the worldwide initiative to eliminate AIDS in Africa asks a question...How can we use our creativity within culture to be an agents of change?  This was a fitting entry for Converse to enter into Vanity Fair's June edition which focuses on Africa and is Guest edited by Bono (U2)

So, why is a sneaker company talking about Culture and expanding the definition way beyond the normally accepted boudaries of geographic location, socio economic statistics, politics and commonly acknowledged people groups.  Well, perhaps because the Internet has exploded the barriers that used to define culture into oblivion...forever!

Culture is rapidly morphing from a place where one participates within the more limiting contexts of physical or emotional space to include the abstract equivalent  in virtual reality and on-line communities.  Recognition of this reality links health and environment together in a manner that re-defines the rapidly expanding role of the artisit and creativity.  The artist...aka the writer & the contributor, are recast in roles that highlight the importance of dissent and the clarion call of the unique voice ;  a vivid re-imagination of the definition of health.  The meaning  of the old adage..."birds of a feather flock together," shifts  offering  new revalation into how the modern day flock emerges.

• "Healthy Cultures breathe life into the life into the people who live within them.  Healthy Cultures offer an array of perspectives.  Nothing is inevitable if you're willing to think!  Indifference is the enemy."  (Converse Ad - Vanity Fair 2007)

Sneakers are what we wear when we're exchanging the limiting contstraints of formal wear shoes to be more comfortable and more flexible.  Sneakers are what we wear when we really need to be able to be flexible, to move, walk...run and play.  Sneakers are shoes in which we engage with the world...not simply tippy toe through it.  Sneakers are what we wear when we need to move with the freedom of our entire body!  Next to our bare feet, sneakers are the closest thing to healthy footware that most of us possess.

So, is your Physical, Relational and Virtual culture healthy?  Are you a Sneaker Warrior?

I had a number of errands to run today.  It's one of my rare office days when my schedule is my own to do with as I please - within the boundaries of getting my work done of course.  The day is gorgeous in Grand Rapids, so my youngest son and I take off in the car to enjoy being together and being outdoors.  He's immersed in a new book, so I pop in a Tony Robbins CD from his "Get The Edge Series."  He momentarily perks up to listen and then decides his book is more interesting.  I settle down. We're together...teenager & Mom...and this is a good thing... and it is enough. 

I've received the series as a gift several days ago.  As Tony begins to talk, I drift in and out of my private thoughts.  Then something he says arrests my attention.  He is asking a question...Did you have a Great Thought Interrupt Your Day today? 

It's a rhetorical question...the point being made that great thoughts rarely interrupt our days...they come during moments of contemplation, relaxation or fun.  Seemingly from nowhere, ideas arise, solutions emerge and opportunities all of a sudden become visible.  But how...

You have to make time to Create!  Creation is an artistic discipline which must be nourished to thrive.  Creativity needs the spacious landscape of downtime...relaxation...to enable its effervescence to bubble to the surface.  As I listened to the CD, there were several insights that emerged. 

1.  Creativity must be Nourished & Protected.

For many years, I have devoted the first hour of my day to quiet contemplation and devotional reading. It is at these moments, when my mind is freshest and my thoughts have not yet begun to race unabated, that inspiration has aroused fresh passion within my soul.  Most of my teaching on spiritual life has been written during these times.  While my level of mental and spiritual stimulation is not always on "high alert", I have always been refreshed and more relaxed in starting my day this way.  The days when this time has been rushed or omitted have left a slight disjointed unsettling feel to life's activities.  Consequently, these moments must be treasured and protected. 

2.  Creativity Requires Time to Flourish.

A big mistake which I have often made or been tempted to make when I have an inspired idea is to talk about it...to anyone and everyone.  Experience has taught me that not every receiver of information is tuned in to give helpful or wise counsel and support.  Creative ideas are seeds.  They do need to be planted and worked into the soil. Inappropriate exposure will kill an emerging seedling of an idea.  Criticism, skepticism, scorn and misunderstanding are poisons that will effectively cut off its young life.

3.  Creativity Thrives on Expectation.

The 1989 Movie, "Field of Dreams"  the character Terrence Man (played by James Earl Jones) encourages Ray (played by Kevin Costner) with this famous quote "If you build it, they will come" famous.  In a similar way, creative instinct also forces you out on a limb with reference to expectations. Expecting to be inspired has a way of creating opportunities for inspiration and creativity.  It's a matter of perspective. 

The fact is that inspiration is all around us.  We usually don't see it because we are walking around with our "eyes wide shut."  Creativity abounds within the peculiarities of nature.  It dances with delight in the mischievous smile of a child.  It mesmerizes within the dramatic flair of artistic expression.  Creativity jives with the beat of the drums or glides on the strains of the violin.  If you live in expectation...Creativity will come!

4.  Creativity is Invigorated by a Sabbath Rest.

I realized, only recently, that my understanding of the Sabbath was very shallow and misguided.  Earlier this year,  I picked up a fascinating book by a Jewish Rabbi, Rabbi Daniel Lapin called "Thou Shalt Prosper.  Ten Commandments for Making Money." 

In one section of the book,Rabbi Lapin writes about Consecrating Time for Forecasting and the power of being able to understand the soft, subtle signals that coming events send into the future.  According to Lapin, the reason we miss these signals is because we have neglected the necessary quiet time to take note of them.  To hear these muted messages, we must be willing to block out noise.  Only then will we be able to hear the soft and quick tread of rapidly approaching trends. 

Lapin writes: "the practice of Sabbath...a day of rest may seem to be governed by primitive rules, but its effect is to "create a tranquil oasis" in time and space from which the future can be effectively contemplated.  For 25 hours each week, Jews are required to put aside all work-related objects and activities ....It is a regular weekly period of time during which their beings are set on "receive mode" rather than "transmit mode."

When I think about the frenzy that characterizes so much of the real estate experience, I wonder if we'd be much more effective if we worked in ways that enhanced rather than depleted creative momentum.  The average Realtor prides him/herself in being easily and continually accessible.  Downtime is often spent under the dull spell of a droning television set.  Open Houses are routinely scheduled for weekends and vacations are preceded by a whirlwind of activity to wrap things up before we leave. A flurry of appointments and emergencies are scheduled for when we return.  

May this be one reason that as an industry, we've missed some important messages that the market sent us and have found ourselves scrambling to react to trends rather than leading the way to creative solutions?  Perhaps, we have been so busy being busy that we've neglected the vitally important discipline of being quiet enough to observe, understand and then respond appropriately. 

Perhaps in failing to listen and quiet our collective heart and spirit, we have forged ahead without the strength of vision which only comes when you catch your breath, stand still and absorb the messages being transmitted to you.  You might think ...We can't possibly afford to do this...things are moving way too fast.  I challenge you with what me seem to be an absurdity...Perhaps there is too much at stake not to! 

*Editorial note:  This blog post was started some time ago...my day today was far more hectic. :)

*photographs of dandelions are courtesy of Dawn Endico on flickr

Copyright 2007 Audu Real Estate  All Rights Reserved

Checking the Housing Market Temperature in Grand Rapids, Michigan!

We're at the halfway point for the year & it has come mighty quickly!  This year, for the first time, the Grand Rapids, Real Estate Association of Realtors(GRAR) launched an ad campaign with the focus "Now is The Right Time to Buy!" 

While advertising does not create instantaneous results, it is helpful to see how our market is comparing with the newly revised market predictions form the National Association of Realtors. (NAR)  First, let's take a look at the local scene.

So far, this year, the highest sales price in the Grand Rapids, Michigan School District has been $479,000 which was just about 1/2 the price of the highest sale price for East Grand Rapids, Michigan ($1,375,000) and 5-10% lower than some neighboring communities such as Hastings, Michigan where the highest sales prices was $488,000 or Jenison, Michigan school district where the highest sales price was $520,000.  To Search for Homes by School District click here...

Average sales prices for 2007 have hovered around $108,000 with the median price at $105,000.  We're still lagging behind last year in terms of average sales price & some other key indicators. 

Last year, the average home in Grand Rapids, Schools sold for approximately $117,000 and the median was $114,000.  That translates to a 7.6% Decline in Average Home Values in the Grand Rapids school district over the past year.  

In terms of the Number of Units...at the 1/2 Mark of the Year,  there have been just slightly less than 1/2 the number of homes sold over the entirety of last year. The number of listings for the entire Board is up this year by about 1300+ units for statistics compiled up to May 2007, but the Sales Price aggregate for Listings is below last years numbers significantly.

This is NOT the time to over-price a home!  Take a look at the graph below...The yellow bars correspond to 2007.  If a home was priced correctly and on the market for a week or less in 2006 & 2007, most homeowners got pretty much what they were asking for.  If the home was on the market for over 90 days, Deep Discounts kicked in if homeowners had to sell their homes.  The price correction for over-pricing is even STEEPER than it was for 2006...We're talking discounts of up to 25%!  Ouch!

How Does Grand Rapids Fare...

in comparison to National Statistics?

According to the National Association of Realtors Housing Market Focus, the revised predictions call for a 6.4% drop nationwide in existing home sales. At the beginning of the year, the forecast had indicated a stabilization of the market, with a moderate increase in sales. 

Factors which have impacted the forecast nationwide include the crisis in the sub-prime lending industry.  In the greater Grand Rapids, Michigan area, this has been compounded by continued sluggish growth in the economy due to job losses. 

To obtain a detailed report on the market in your particular city or West Michigan community, contact us at info@auduhomes.com.

*Information is obtained from the statistical reports compiled by GRAR & is deemed to be accurate but not guaranteed.

Copyright 2007 Audu Homes All Rights Reserved

SHIFT HAPPENS...

You never know what you might unearth of where you might end up when you follow a link down a cyberspace bunny trail.  This find started with a drop in visit to Ed Rybczynski's blog & curiosity about the mention of a sight called slideshare.  If you've wondered what the future holds...slide on over & watch!

It's hard to appreciate the enormity of the change that is happening in our world.  This slideshow was a stylized adaptation of a presention by Karl  Fisch which examined his perceptions for America in the 21st century global economy. What do you think?