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New Jersey Real Estate

Hillsborough, New Jersey

Real estate information and opinions about residential real estate in Somerset, Hunterdon, Mercer and Middlesex Counties by a REALTOR� with over a quarter century of experience. COMMENTS ARE WELCOME. Please use the Add Comment link at the bottom of the posting.

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New Jersey Real Estate

Somerset County June Real Estate

Jul. 2, 2008
Categorized in: Somerset County NJ homes

Somerset County continues its recovery from the "recent unpleasantness" of the real estate market.  After a May in which the absorption rate jumped to nine months, we saw a decline in that rate to 7.2 months, the lowest since July of last year. This is a good sign, since with the exception of last month, there has been a steady decline in that rate since December (a very good thing). Moreover, the supply/demand ratio continues to climb, now at 57%, the highest number since November of 2006 (with the exceptions of two Decembers, usually the lowest, with 60% in December 2007, and 70% in December 2006). Is the real estate market on the mend? Definitely so.

 The first quarter of this year saw a troubling 31% decline in sales over the same quarter in 2007. The second quarter was off only 19%, so the first two quarters were off a total of 25%. We will not see an improvement in those numbers until the fourth quarter of this year, since the mortgage crisis hit hard (to the tune of about 100 sales per month in the County) only after August 2007.
 
Average sale prices this year for the first two quarters averaged $468,755, compared to $471,155 during the same period last year. The difference is minimal. The ratio of sale price to list price so far this year is 95%, compared to 97% last year. That reflects harder bargaining on the part of buyers, and a more “realistic” approach on the part of sellers. 
 
The unfortunate trend right now is nationwide - the increase in mortgage interest rates.  Although rates are still around 6.5%, further increases may cool the warming trend in the real estate markets where recovery is tentative.
 
Although activity is still below last year’s, there are clear indications that the real estate market in Somerset County remains healthier than the media would like the public to believe. If you want to know what’s really going on, talk with someone who knows the market in the area you’re interested in. Will you look back on 2008 as the year you should have bought?

 

National Association of Realtors® as Cheerleader

Jun. 26, 2008
Categorized in: Media Distortions

Every time numbers issued by the National Association of Realtors® are at variance with, say, Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller Index, critics loudly proclaim that NAR is nothing but a cheerleader for the profession, manipulates numbers to suit its nefarious purposes and should be disregarded.  Those folks don't seem to understand what Realtors® do for a living, much less that cheerleading for homeownership is not exactly invoking devil worship. 

In fact, the American Dream has as a large component the ownership of one's own home.  It seems that every wave of immigrants to this country has as its chief goal not only success in the new homeland, but the purchase of real estate, which may have been in short supply in the native land or simply not available to purchase.  Cheerleading for this should not be considered a bad thing, wouldn't you agree?

On the other hand, the Case-Shiller Index was largely created to assist equity speculators, hedge-fund investors, etc. With methods that emphasize negative aspects of the real estate market, and concentrating on a small subset of metropolitan areas, the CSI promotes fear like Molly Malone sold cockles and mussels.  Scream it loud and long (and sell short).

So, the next time someone accuses NAR of cheerleading, think of the millions of homeowners and prospective homeowners who benefit, and join in the cheer.

Case-Shiller Shocker

Jun. 25, 2008
Categorized in: Media Distortions

It's that time of the month again, when Standard & Poor's releases those shocking numbers on real estate, using the Case-Shiller Index and its pseudo-scientific evaluation of the housing market.

In a Forbes article yesterday those scary numbers of the statistical subset of 20 markets and the mythical national market were once again paraded by the media.  I have written frequently about the shortcomings of the Case-Shiller, but keep in mind it is definitely defective, unless you are a purveyor of hedge funds, which always do well on bad news.  And the media continue to trumpet (or should I say bleat?) the "bad news." If it bleeds, it leads.  Of course, those are numbers through April (this is the third week in June, in case no one noticed), and other reports suggest imminent improvement, especially in those areas hardest hit by the recent real estate "unpleasantness."

Ignore the national market - it doesn't exist.  Look behind the headlines and at your local market to learn what is going on.  Your local market, explained by your local Realtor®, determines the value of property you own or want to own.

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