Jul. 2, 2008
Somerset County continues its recovery from the "recent unpleasantness" of the real estate market. After a May in which the absorption rate jumped to nine months, we saw a decline in that rate to 7.2 months, the lowest since July of last year. This is a good sign, since with the exception of last month, there has been a steady decline in that rate since December (a very good thing). Moreover, the supply/demand ratio continues to climb, now at 57%, the highest number since November of 2006 (with the exceptions of two Decembers, usually the lowest, with 60% in December 2007, and 70% in December 2006). Is the real estate market on the mend? Definitely so.
The first quarter of this year saw a troubling 31% decline in sales over the same quarter in 2007. The second quarter was off only 19%, so the first two quarters were off a total of 25%. We will not see an improvement in those numbers until the fourth quarter of this year, since the mortgage crisis hit hard (to the tune of about 100 sales per month in the County) only after August 2007.
Average sale prices this year for the first two quarters averaged $468,755, compared to $471,155 during the same period last year. The difference is minimal. The ratio of sale price to list price so far this year is 95%, compared to 97% last year. That reflects harder bargaining on the part of buyers, and a more “realistic” approach on the part of sellers.
The unfortunate trend right now is nationwide - the increase in mortgage interest rates. Although rates are still around 6.5%, further increases may cool the warming trend in the real estate markets where recovery is tentative.
Although activity is still below last year’s, there are clear indications that the real estate market in Somerset County remains healthier than the media would like the public to believe. If you want to know what’s really going on, talk with someone who knows the market in the area you’re interested in. Will you look back on 2008 as the year you should have bought?