It is hard to believe just two years ago in October the Dow Jones industrial set a record high of 14,164. According to the Associated Press, just one year after that it was at 8,451 in mid October 2008. Today the Dow is around 9,800. Stocks have rallied recently on signs that retail sales are improving. The last two years have been a bumpy ride.

The AP recently broke down the economic numbers, putting into perspective just where the U.S. economy stands today. "The panic of last fall has been replaced by the resignation that the worst is over but it might be years before the economy booms again." It seems for every gain there is something else to put in the loss column. For example, while the stock market is steadily gaining ground, the total losses in the stock market from the peak of October 2007 to the bottom of March 2009 was a mind-boggling $11.2 trillion.

A positive sign is that after steadily declining for fourteen months, retail sales increased 2.7 percent in August. But the unemployment rate in October 2008 was 6.2 percent and today it is 9.8 percent. Consumer confidence, which is measured on a scale of 1 to 100, was at a record low of 25.3 last October and this month it is 53.1. To put these numbers in perspective, two years ago consumer confidence stood at 95.2.

Some oddly positive side effects of the Great Recession have been the increase in personal savings rate from 0.5 percent in 2005, when home prices were soaring, to 6.9 percent in May 2009. Also, credit card debt held by Americans last September was a staggering $975 billion. That number is down 8 percent now to $899 billion.

To put the housing numbers in perspective, 2005 was a record year with 7 million home resales. January 2009 the annual rate of home resales was 4.5 million, but rose to 5.1 million in August. On the other hand, the median price of homes sold in 2006 was a record high $245,000. The median price of homes sold last October was $213,000 and dipped to $195,000 in August.

Some other signs of the time: Starbucks launched an instant coffee product in September. PepsiCo Inc announced recently that it will continue to offer and develop products with price in mind, feeling customers will continue to be price-conscious even after the recession ends. Retailers will need to stay creative to entice shoppers this holiday season amid rising unemployment. Wall Street may be seeing a smoother path to recovery, but it's still a bumpy ride on Main Street.


Ki works in Austin real estate. He works to help buyers find the perfect property. His website provides general information on Austin real estate. It also allows buyers to search for homes in the Austin MLS along with providing a free mortgage calculator.

Is the recession near the end? Is the American economy on its way to recovery? The answer is probably yes. That's good news, right? Not so fast, say some economic analysts. And they mean, literally, that the stock market may be rebounding a little too quickly.

According to a recent report at Yahoo Finance, the stock market's rally in recent months is a bit of a mixed blessing. The hope that the economy is on the rebound "has lifted the Standard & Poor's 500 index, a benchmark for many investments like mutual funds, an enormous 39 percent from a 12-year low on March 9. Those kinds of gains might normally take four years to materialize."

Both being too quick to call it a recovery and not cautious enough in investing could cause this budding economic upturn to wither on the vine. The numbers remain mixed, with the number of job losses in the month of May are down, but unemployment is up. While the government's report of 345,000 jobs lost is the lowest since September, the actual unemployment rate is 9.4 percent. This indicates that although less people are being laid off, it is still very tough to find a job out there. In fact, the overall number of job seekers rose as college graduates flood the job markets.

Even Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has said, even once the economy begins to recover, jobs will be the last sector to rebound. But there are still other troubling signs out there. Recent Commerce Department data shows that May retail sales were mixed, but in general analysts were surprised that more shoppers hadn't returned to stores. Wall Street may be throwing caution to wind, but Main Street seems to be holding onto their cash, with the savings rate up again last month.

One of the biggest downfalls of overzealous investing is that investors are helping push interest rates higher. According to Yahoo, investors have been selling off Treasury bills because they feel they are no longer in need of the safety of government debt. This causes mortgage rates and other kinds of loans for consumers to rise. Interest rates are still historically low, but they have been creeping up in the last few weeks. As the interest rates goes up, borrowing is falling off. The Federal Reserve reported last week that consumer borrowing in April fell by twice as much as analysts had been expecting.

The latest results of the AP's Economic Stress Index, which tracks the economic strains in 3100 counties across the country, show that many areas of the country are struggling more than they were a year ago.
"The AP calculates a score from 1 to 100 based on each county's rate of unemployment, foreclosure and bankruptcy, with lower numbers indicating less economic pain. The average Stress score dipped to 9.7 in April, from 10.3 in March. In April 2008, the national average was 5.9."

So while most indications show improvement in the economy in the first part of 2009, a slow, steady recovery is more likely to help this nation that has been stressed in so many ways over the last year and a half. After all, exuberant investing is what got us into this mess in the first place.


Ki lives and works in Austin and has worked in the Austin real estate market for 10 years. He maintains a search of Austin MLS on his website. It also has general information on Austin real estate and current mortgage rates

All investments depend on making returns, which in turn are affected by macro cycles such as the Great Depression or the dot-com boom. When a market is receding, it makes more sense for long-term, stability-seeking investors to look elsewhere upon first glance. However, in the case of the housing market of many parts of the US, the likelihood of long-term housing depression are still relatively slim. Furthermore, other factors will continue to influence the stability of housing pricing in the short term.

Likely investors in most areas will be able to get great values for some time, but housing prices have statistically increased on a per-capita level for the vast majority of the past century. Even with the 30% decrease in home prices during the years of 1930-33, economic stimulus eventually prevailed. The Depression was also the primary topic of a young Ben Bernanke who, before his current position as head of the Federal Reserve, wrote a 350-page report on how the US' largest recession was due to the blunders of the then newly-created institution. Bernanke has also taken more unprecedented steps to help preserve large investment banks than homeownership, citing a housing bubble which needs a necessary (though unfortunate) correction.

As foreclosure rates continue to increase, many properties are being revalued at less than the price they were purchased at. However, this is only half the story. America's losses are oft distributed unequally. And while the Midwest generally experiencing the worst effects of past recessions, this time may be a little different. Across middle America, home prices have depressed for seven straight months, but several previously hot markets have deteriorated below pre-bubble prices. Southern California and Arizona are two examples that stand out, particularly in terms of how rapidly falling home values have affected previously booming areas.

Now consumers are hit with two difficulties which make housing slumps particularly viscous: rising mortgage payments and loss of home equity, which has restricted lines of credit for homeowners. Furthermore, the advantages of America's size are diminished in a housing slump because homeowners are unable to migrate to other areas. Historically, there have been many such exoduses from economically depressed areas in search of higher wages, but homeowners are increasingly unable to do so unless they sell their homes at a loss.

This stagnation also means that markets with rising values will continue to attract investment, while government intervention may be necessary to lift more blighted areas. The Northwest continues to experience positive property values, despite the prospects oflooming layoffs from troubled financial firms. Texas continues to experience exceptional developmental growth, and relatively stable house prices in his area likely contributed to the Dallas Fed's dissenting vote against the recent record Federal Funds Rate cut. In central Texas, development has continued relatively unabated, in contrast with other areas where property values have dropped more considerably. This reasoning indicates that these markets are likely to accelerate growth as the larger economy recovers from the sub-prime crisis, and will probably be more valuable in the mid-term by comparison to more depressed areas.

Either way, the US recession is not likely to remain too deep, thanks to the generous monetary policy of the Fed. Should current inflationary pressures continue their current trends, home prices will necessarily rebound, although not quickly enough to facilitate speculative short sells. Therefore, for those looking for the long haul, deals are out there.

Ki operates as a realtor working in the Austin Texas real estate market. He writes a blog covering Austin real estate as well as providing a free search of the Austin MLS.

This week, a storm of bad news gave markets cold feet, resulting in Friday's 250-point loss. While this pattern of volatility has been the status quo for stock exchanges worldwide for the better part of the year-to-date, another factor has caused at least as many difficulties for a much larger percentage of the global population: the recent skyrocketing prices in energy and food. Wheat and other cereal prices have more than doubled this year, causing widespread effects ranging from speculative overbuying, which exacerbates the problem, to food riots in many poor countries. Millions of children around the world are likely to suffer from malnutrition in coming years if prices stay at or near current levels, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates.

Part of this unfavorable price increase has been due to shifting ideas about energy consumption and the press towards the use of alternative sources of fuel other than gasoline: namely, the subsidies issued by many governments of developed countries to change over to ethanol and other plant-based hydrocarbons, such as that made from palm oil (a particularly environmentally destructive process for ecosystems). Since these subsidies and programs have been introduced, farmers are often able to make better returns by selling their crops to biodiesel companies than to food companies. Until economic incentives change, the supply end is unlikely to provide solutions. For many of these farmers, these developments mean they are able to make a decent living for the first time in years, and they desperately want to (even if it results in local food shortages sometimes).

While this widespread problem affects consumers all over the world, these micro effects are only half of the story for gas-sensitive American consumers. Energy prices have taken headlines this year due to speculation and supply concerns from OPEC and South American countries after hitting the psychologically important $100 a barrel mark for the first time in the third quarter of 2007. Crude prices remain stubbornly above historical trends, even as suppliers contend that output need not increase. Analysts have also projected US gasoline prices to climb above $4 a gallon during the summer, another equally unprecedented number that may be tough pill for consumers to swallow, after the one-two punch of a national housing slump and the global credit crunch.

Should oil suppliers continue to maintain current output levels, demand is eventually likely to contract. But they aren't the only links in this chain. If oil becomes a less attractive option to Americans, oil companies may eventually be priced out of the market. Many have been keeping an exceptionally low profile in recent months. Auto companies play a huge part in the process, but shrinking sales and looming layoffs will likely increase the pressure towards manufacturing lower-emission vehicles. But the single biggest mover and shaker will be the government, which has the ability to regulate both inflation (through the FEDs influence on mortgage interest rates) and the move towards more sustainable technologies. The next US president will have the ability to help determine how long the lone superpower continues to expose its Achilles heel, but at some point all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve if inflation once again rears its ugly head.

Ki works as a real estate agent in the Austin real estate market. His site provides a free Austin MLS search along with updates on the Austin market on his Austin real estate blog