All investments depend on making returns, which in turn are affected by macro cycles such as the Great Depression or the dot-com boom. When a market is receding, it makes more sense for long-term, stability-seeking investors to look elsewhere upon first glance. However, in the case of the housing market of many parts of the US, the likelihood of long-term housing depression are still relatively slim. Furthermore, other factors will continue to influence the stability of housing pricing in the short term.

Likely investors in most areas will be able to get great values for some time, but housing prices have statistically increased on a per-capita level for the vast majority of the past century. Even with the 30% decrease in home prices during the years of 1930-33, economic stimulus eventually prevailed. The Depression was also the primary topic of a young Ben Bernanke who, before his current position as head of the Federal Reserve, wrote a 350-page report on how the US' largest recession was due to the blunders of the then newly-created institution. Bernanke has also taken more unprecedented steps to help preserve large investment banks than homeownership, citing a housing bubble which needs a necessary (though unfortunate) correction.

As foreclosure rates continue to increase, many properties are being revalued at less than the price they were purchased at. However, this is only half the story. America's losses are oft distributed unequally. And while the Midwest generally experiencing the worst effects of past recessions, this time may be a little different. Across middle America, home prices have depressed for seven straight months, but several previously hot markets have deteriorated below pre-bubble prices. Southern California and Arizona are two examples that stand out, particularly in terms of how rapidly falling home values have affected previously booming areas.

Now consumers are hit with two difficulties which make housing slumps particularly viscous: rising mortgage payments and loss of home equity, which has restricted lines of credit for homeowners. Furthermore, the advantages of America's size are diminished in a housing slump because homeowners are unable to migrate to other areas. Historically, there have been many such exoduses from economically depressed areas in search of higher wages, but homeowners are increasingly unable to do so unless they sell their homes at a loss.

This stagnation also means that markets with rising values will continue to attract investment, while government intervention may be necessary to lift more blighted areas. The Northwest continues to experience positive property values, despite the prospects oflooming layoffs from troubled financial firms. Texas continues to experience exceptional developmental growth, and relatively stable house prices in his area likely contributed to the Dallas Fed's dissenting vote against the recent record Federal Funds Rate cut. In central Texas, development has continued relatively unabated, in contrast with other areas where property values have dropped more considerably. This reasoning indicates that these markets are likely to accelerate growth as the larger economy recovers from the sub-prime crisis, and will probably be more valuable in the mid-term by comparison to more depressed areas.

Either way, the US recession is not likely to remain too deep, thanks to the generous monetary policy of the Fed. Should current inflationary pressures continue their current trends, home prices will necessarily rebound, although not quickly enough to facilitate speculative short sells. Therefore, for those looking for the long haul, deals are out there.

Ki operates as a realtor working in the Austin Texas real estate market. He writes a blog covering Austin real estate as well as providing a free search of the Austin MLS.

This week, a storm of bad news gave markets cold feet, resulting in Friday's 250-point loss. While this pattern of volatility has been the status quo for stock exchanges worldwide for the better part of the year-to-date, another factor has caused at least as many difficulties for a much larger percentage of the global population: the recent skyrocketing prices in energy and food. Wheat and other cereal prices have more than doubled this year, causing widespread effects ranging from speculative overbuying, which exacerbates the problem, to food riots in many poor countries. Millions of children around the world are likely to suffer from malnutrition in coming years if prices stay at or near current levels, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates.

Part of this unfavorable price increase has been due to shifting ideas about energy consumption and the press towards the use of alternative sources of fuel other than gasoline: namely, the subsidies issued by many governments of developed countries to change over to ethanol and other plant-based hydrocarbons, such as that made from palm oil (a particularly environmentally destructive process for ecosystems). Since these subsidies and programs have been introduced, farmers are often able to make better returns by selling their crops to biodiesel companies than to food companies. Until economic incentives change, the supply end is unlikely to provide solutions. For many of these farmers, these developments mean they are able to make a decent living for the first time in years, and they desperately want to (even if it results in local food shortages sometimes).

While this widespread problem affects consumers all over the world, these micro effects are only half of the story for gas-sensitive American consumers. Energy prices have taken headlines this year due to speculation and supply concerns from OPEC and South American countries after hitting the psychologically important $100 a barrel mark for the first time in the third quarter of 2007. Crude prices remain stubbornly above historical trends, even as suppliers contend that output need not increase. Analysts have also projected US gasoline prices to climb above $4 a gallon during the summer, another equally unprecedented number that may be tough pill for consumers to swallow, after the one-two punch of a national housing slump and the global credit crunch.

Should oil suppliers continue to maintain current output levels, demand is eventually likely to contract. But they aren't the only links in this chain. If oil becomes a less attractive option to Americans, oil companies may eventually be priced out of the market. Many have been keeping an exceptionally low profile in recent months. Auto companies play a huge part in the process, but shrinking sales and looming layoffs will likely increase the pressure towards manufacturing lower-emission vehicles. But the single biggest mover and shaker will be the government, which has the ability to regulate both inflation (through the FEDs influence on mortgage interest rates) and the move towards more sustainable technologies. The next US president will have the ability to help determine how long the lone superpower continues to expose its Achilles heel, but at some point all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve if inflation once again rears its ugly head.

Ki works as a real estate agent in the Austin real estate market. His site provides a free Austin MLS search along with updates on the Austin market on his Austin real estate blog