The headlines this month have been taken by the most insidious of America's vices: black gold. Oil futures are now projected to exceed $100 a barrel until 2016, and continue to sit comfortably near the $115-120 a barrel mark. Many different causes have been blamed for rising prices at the pump, ranging from massive speculation to supply instability in some oil-producing nations. However, one factor must surely be worrisome to most every American: oil companies haven't been getting enough of the stuff out of the ground.

Exxon Mobil's $11 billion quarterly profit disappointed Wall Street and investors alike, their shares falling 4 percent on May 1st. The largest oil company in the US has seen stagnant margins in most quarters since 2005 without being able to increase production. In fact, their overall production fell 10 percent. Demand in the US has also contracted 2 percent since the beginning of the credit crunch last summer, so Exxon's profits have been reaped in large part because of increasing price pressure on consumers, many of whom have looking to Congress for some relief. They may be looking for a while, as representatives have been less than forthcoming on bipartisan measures since they passed the economic stimulus package into law in February.

The two Democratic candidates running for President have sharply contrasted on how to address record oil inflation. Both Democratic Senator Hillary Clinton and Republican Senator John McCain have endorsed the idea of temporarily removing the federal gas tax over the summer months. Their reasoning is that consumers will feel the pinch of driving costs most over the summer, which means some offset in price would be more appreciated. However, there is no guarantee that the tax break will reach consumer directly, as many other secondary industries besides the oil companies price their profits into gasoline. Senator Barack Obama has also criticized the two candidates, stating that they were "reading from the same political playbook." However, he hasn't offered forth an alternative.

It is therefore difficult to project how difficult it will be for hard-hit US consumers in the near term, much less come November. Ethanol conversion and use is another issue that will continue to influence price inflation, as greater demand for alternative fuels increases. Many economists already believe that the globe has reached peak oil, or the zenith of possible oil production. This means that energy will only become scarcer and more expensive, and the 18.5 cent federal gas tax will only be the tip of the iceberg when it comes to government intervention. Oil prices aren't going down by much even if such a tax break is implemented, primarily because demand from developing countries like China and India continues to grow. Indeed, their combined oil consumption outpaced that of the US for the first time in 2007. Some type of initiative between oil-producing nations will eventually have to be made to move towards more sustainable levels of consumption, but growing divisive political sentiments make it unlikely for anything major to happen until someone new is in the Oval Office.

Escapeso Real Estate helps investors looking for Austin real estate. Their site provides a free graphical search of the Austin MLS along with information on current mortgage interest rates.

This week, a storm of bad news gave markets cold feet, resulting in Friday's 250-point loss. While this pattern of volatility has been the status quo for stock exchanges worldwide for the better part of the year-to-date, another factor has caused at least as many difficulties for a much larger percentage of the global population: the recent skyrocketing prices in energy and food. Wheat and other cereal prices have more than doubled this year, causing widespread effects ranging from speculative overbuying, which exacerbates the problem, to food riots in many poor countries. Millions of children around the world are likely to suffer from malnutrition in coming years if prices stay at or near current levels, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates.

Part of this unfavorable price increase has been due to shifting ideas about energy consumption and the press towards the use of alternative sources of fuel other than gasoline: namely, the subsidies issued by many governments of developed countries to change over to ethanol and other plant-based hydrocarbons, such as that made from palm oil (a particularly environmentally destructive process for ecosystems). Since these subsidies and programs have been introduced, farmers are often able to make better returns by selling their crops to biodiesel companies than to food companies. Until economic incentives change, the supply end is unlikely to provide solutions. For many of these farmers, these developments mean they are able to make a decent living for the first time in years, and they desperately want to (even if it results in local food shortages sometimes).

While this widespread problem affects consumers all over the world, these micro effects are only half of the story for gas-sensitive American consumers. Energy prices have taken headlines this year due to speculation and supply concerns from OPEC and South American countries after hitting the psychologically important $100 a barrel mark for the first time in the third quarter of 2007. Crude prices remain stubbornly above historical trends, even as suppliers contend that output need not increase. Analysts have also projected US gasoline prices to climb above $4 a gallon during the summer, another equally unprecedented number that may be tough pill for consumers to swallow, after the one-two punch of a national housing slump and the global credit crunch.

Should oil suppliers continue to maintain current output levels, demand is eventually likely to contract. But they aren't the only links in this chain. If oil becomes a less attractive option to Americans, oil companies may eventually be priced out of the market. Many have been keeping an exceptionally low profile in recent months. Auto companies play a huge part in the process, but shrinking sales and looming layoffs will likely increase the pressure towards manufacturing lower-emission vehicles. But the single biggest mover and shaker will be the government, which has the ability to regulate both inflation (through the FEDs influence on mortgage interest rates) and the move towards more sustainable technologies. The next US president will have the ability to help determine how long the lone superpower continues to expose its Achilles heel, but at some point all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve if inflation once again rears its ugly head.

Ki works as a real estate agent in the Austin real estate market. His site provides a free Austin MLS search along with updates on the Austin market on his Austin real estate blog