While the expectation has been that mortgage rates would start to rise they have fallen for the last 2 weeks. This week the 30 year rate fell from 4.98 to 4.91 (last week it fell from 5.03 to 4.98). Besides October 8th its the lowest rate we have seen since the start of the summer. So how does 4.91 fit in with historical mortgage rates. Its lower than any point before March 26, 2009. Its also the 11th lowest recorded rate in history (all of the 10 lower recorded rates occured in 2009).

While the 30 year mortgage rate is the most watched rate the other 3 major mortgage products fell as well. The 15 year rate fell from 4.40 to 4.36. The 5 and 1 year arm fell from 4.35 to 4.29 and 4.47 to 4.46. The 1 year arm is now higher than the 5 year arm and the 15 year arm. Below are rates from the weeks from Nov 12th, 2009 to October 15th, 2009.

Nov 12, 2009
30-yr 4.91 15-yr 4.36 5-yr ARM 4.29 1-yr ARM 4.46

Nov 05, 2009
30-yr 4.98 15-yr 4.40 5-yr ARM 4.35 1-yr ARM 4.47

Oct 29, 2009
30-yr 5.03 15-yr 4.46 5-yr ARM 4.42 1-yr ARM 4.57

Oct 22, 2009
30-yr 5.00 15-yr 4.43 5-yr ARM 4.40 1-yr ARM 4.54

Oct 15, 2009
30-yr 4.92 15-yr 4.37 5-yr ARM 4.38 1-yr ARM 4.60

Apr 23, 2009
30-yr 4.80 15-yr 4.48 5-yr ARM 4.85 1-yr ARM 4.82

At this point the 1 year arm, being higher than the 5 year arm, is out of the picture. The 5 year arm is substantially lower than the 30 year rate. But it still seems like a worse option than the 30 year mortgage. First the 30 year rate is pretty low (the 11th lowest rate in history). In addition the expectation is that rates will move up so the benefit of getting a lower rate with a 5 year arm is outweighted by locking in for a short period of time.

In addition to rates its also interesting to look at mortgage payments. We took today's rates and using a mortgage calculator determined the payment for a 200k loan. We also did the same thing with rates from October 29th and April 16.

Nov 12
30-yr $1062.66
15-yr $1515.71
5-yr ARM $988.56
1-yr ARM $1008.62

Oct 29
30-yr $1077.31
15-yr $1525.9
5-yr ARM $1003.88
1-yr ARM $1021.7

Apr 16
30-yr $1018.12
15-yr $1574.3
5-yr ARM $1052.96
1-yr ARM $1051.74

Compared to two weeks ago a payment is 1.35 percent lower and for a 200k mortgage payment the payment is $14.65 less now than it would have been two weeks ago. While this is not a huge difference its not totally insignificant.

So what is our advice to people currently looking to get a loan? With rates near historical lows its probably a good idea to lock in rates earlier rather than later. While their is a chance that rates could move lower its doubtful they could fall too much lower than where they stand today. On the other hand there is more of a risk of mortgage rates moving up in the next few weeks.

Ki lives, and works, in Austin, Texas. He maintains a website escapesomewhere.com for future buyers of Austin real estate. The site offers information on historical mortgage rates along with a mortgage rate widget.

After rising steadily for the last 3 weeks mortgage rates fell back down this week. The 30 year rate fell from 5.03 to 4.98. The 15 year rate fell from 4.46 to 4.40. The 5 and 1 year arm fell from 4.42 to 4.35 and 4.57 to 4.47 respectively. This looks like more of a hiccup as mortgage rates steadily start there rise. At this point the overwhelming consensus is that mortgage rates are going to rise in the next six months. But the lowered rates do provide an opportunity for potential homeowners to lock in rates at sub 5.00 rates. Below are rates from the weeks from October 8, 2009 to November 5, 2009.

Nov 05, 2009
30-yr 4.98 15-yr 4.40 5-yr ARM 4.35 1-yr ARM 4.47

Oct 29, 2009
30-yr 5.03 15-yr 4.46 5-yr ARM 4.42 1-yr ARM 4.57

Oct 22, 2009
30-yr 5.00 15-yr 4.43 5-yr ARM 4.40 1-yr ARM 4.54

Oct 15, 2009
30-yr 4.92 15-yr 4.37 5-yr ARM 4.38 1-yr ARM 4.60

Oct 08, 2009
30-yr 4.87 15-yr 4.33 5-yr ARM 4.35 1-yr ARM 4.53

Apr 16, 2009
30-yr 4.54 15-yr 4.93 5-yr ARM 4.83 1-yr ARM 4.82


As has been the case for several months the interest rate to watch is the 30 year rate. When rates are low (and the expectation is that they are going to rise) there is no real reason to look at short term ARMS.

In addition to looking at rates we also calculated the mortgage payments for a 200k loan based on today's rates.

Nov 05
30-yr $1071.19
15-yr $1519.78
5-yr ARM $995.62
1-yr ARM $1009.8

Oct 22
30-yr $1073.64
15-yr $1522.84
5-yr ARM $1001.52
1-yr ARM $1018.12

Apr 09
30-yr $1015.74
15-yr $1573.26
5-yr ARM $1043.29
1-yr ARM $1057.8

This show how little rates have moved in the last two weeks. For a 30 year loan on a 200k mortgage the payment is $2.45 less a month for a decrease of about 1/5 of 1 percent

So what is our advice? First I would avoid anything but a 30 year mortgage. Their is simply too much of a chance of higher rates. Second I would start looking for a mortgage earlier in the process instead of later. Basically their are too many issues with lending right now and it's a good idea to find out any issues to get a loan earlier in the process. Second it's a good to check into the 7,500 tax credit. The new program has expanded the eligibility so if you didn't qualify for the 8,000 tax credit you might qualify for the new one.


Ki works, and lives, in Austin, Texas. His website arranges details on the Austin Tx real estate market. It also has graphs of mortgage rate trends and a few free mortgage widgets.

So are sub 5.0 rates gone forever? The short answer is probably yes. While rates might briefly fall below 5 in the next month for the most part the era of sub 5.0 rates is over. Mortgage rates rose for the third straight week. The thirty year rate rose from 5.00 to 5.03. The 15 year rate rose from 4.43 to 4.46. The 5 and 1 year rates rose from 4.40 to 4.42 and 4.54 to 4.57. Its interesting to note that the 1 year arm has had a higher rate than the 5 year arm for the last few weeks. Below are rates for the last few weeks.

Oct 29, 2009
30-yr 5.03 15-yr 4.46 5-yr ARM 4.42 1-yr ARM 4.57

Oct 22, 2009
30-yr 5.00 15-yr 4.43 5-yr ARM 4.40 1-yr ARM 4.54

Oct 15, 2009
30-yr 4.92 15-yr 4.37 5-yr ARM 4.38 1-yr ARM 4.60

Oct 08, 2009
30-yr 4.87 15-yr 4.33 5-yr ARM 4.35 1-yr ARM 4.53

Oct 01, 2009
30-yr 4.94 15-yr 4.36 5-yr ARM 4.42 1-yr ARM 4.49

Apr 02, 2009
30-yr 5.05 15-yr 5.13 5-yr ARM 5.00 1-yr ARM 4.78

The only two mortgage products that are interesting is the 30 year and the 15 year fixed rates. With 1 year rates higher than the 5 year arm they are obviously pointless. And with current rates low compared to historical mortgage rates the lower rates of the 5 year arm (compared to the 30 year rate) don't seem worth the risk. In addition to mortgage rates lets look at mortgage payments. Taking today's rates we can translate them into a payment for a 200k mortgage. We did the same thing with rates from October 15th (2 weeks ago) and April 2 (6 months ago).

Oct 29
30-yr $1077.31
15-yr $1525.9
5-yr ARM $1003.88
1-yr ARM $1021.7

Oct 15
30-yr $1063.88
15-yr $1516.73
5-yr ARM $999.16
1-yr ARM $1025.28

Apr 02
30-yr $1079.76
15-yr $1595.16
5-yr ARM $1073.64
1-yr ARM $1046.91

A mortgage payment is about $13 more than 2 weeks ago and about $2 less than it was six months ago.

So why are rates rising? Although its a weak recovery, the economy by most accounts is experiencing a recovery. In addition, the government has lowered the amount of mortgage backed securities it was buying which was keeping rates artifically low.

So what is our advice to people interested in buying a house? It might seem obvious but I would lock in now instead of waiting. Almost all signs point to mortgage rates rising over the next few months. The real question is will the strengthing real estate market be able to withstand higher rates? We will have to wait to find out.


Ki writes frequently about the mortgage industry and mortgage rates. He caters to the real estate market in Austin. His site www.escapesomewhere.com www.escapesomewhere.com has information on historical mortgage rates along with a free mortgage widget.

Mortgage Rates Fell yet again this week. The 30 year fell from 5.04 to 4.94. This marks the 5th week in a row where mortgage rates have either fallen or held steady. For the most part rates have been slowly falling. In fact this week accounts for half of the total fall in the last five weeks. So how does 4.94 look in a historical context. It is the lowest rate we have seen since May 28th. More importantly though it is lower than any rate we have seen prior to March 26, 2009 in the 40 years we have been compiling reliable data on average mortgage rates.

In addition to the 30 year rate the other major mortgage products fell as well. The 15 year fixed fell from 4.46 to 4.36. The 5 and 1 year arm fell from 4.51 to 4.42 and 4.52 to 4.49 respectively. Below are rates from the last few weeks.

Oct 01, 2009
30-yr 4.94 15-yr 4.36 5-yr ARM 4.42 1-yr ARM 4.49

Sep 24, 2009
30-yr 5.04 15-yr 4.46 5-yr ARM 4.51 1-yr ARM 4.52

Sep 17, 2009
30-yr 5.04 15-yr 4.47 5-yr ARM 4.51 1-yr ARM 4.58

Sep 10, 2009
30-yr 5.07 15-yr 4.50 5-yr ARM 4.51 1-yr ARM 4.64

Sep 03, 2009
30-yr 5.08 15-yr 4.54 5-yr ARM 4.59 1-yr ARM 4.62

Mar 05, 2009
30-yr 5.15 15-yr 4.72 5-yr ARM 5.08 1-yr ARM 4.86

So why are rates falling. The fed has been buying mortgage backed securities to keep rates low. But the expectation is that interest rates cannot stay this low forever. Historically rates are abnormally low and at some point they are going to start moving back up. One thing to watch is the government's buying of mortgage backed securities. To stop inflation from getting out of control the fed needs to stop buying securities once the economy starts improving and recently the fed has started to pull back on the volume of mortgage securities they are purchasing.

In addition to rates its also helpful to look at actual mortgage payments to provide perspective. We translated today's rates into a payment on a 200k mortgage. We also did the same thing with rates from September 17th and February 26th.

Oct 01
30-yr $1066.32
15-yr $1515.71
5-yr ARM $1003.88
1-yr ARM $1012.18

Sep 17
30-yr $1078.53
15-yr $1526.92
5-yr ARM $1014.55
1-yr ARM $1022.89

Feb 26
30-yr $1082.21
15-yr $1548.44
5-yr ARM $1080.98
1-yr ARM $1050.53

Looking at the 30 year rate a mortgage payment is pretty similar to 2 weeks ago and 6 months ago. A 200k mortgage 6 months ago would have been 1.46 percent less or $15.89 less a month.

So what is going to happen moving forward. I would expect rates to stay around 5 for the time being. As long as the government continues buying mortgage backed securities we should see rates at historically low levels. Once the market starts to improve rates will start to increase. If the government is careful and avoids inflation rates should likely rise to 6-8 percent. If the government loses control of inflation we could see rates move up into the double digits.

Ki studied at UT. He hosts a website with a graphical Austin home search. His site also has a graph showing mortgage rate trends along with several mortgage widgets.

Mortgage rates remained steady this week. The 30 year again was at 5.04 which is a low for the summer. The other mortgage products remained relatively stable this week except for the 1 year arm which fell from 4.58 to 4.52. Below are rates for the last few weeks. As we can see overall for the last month rates have been steadily falling. But overall the movement has been very small with 30 year rates only dropping 1/10 of a point in the last month.

Sep 24, 2009
30-yr 5.04 15-yr 4.46 5-yr ARM 4.51 1-yr ARM 4.52

Sep 17, 2009
30-yr 5.04 15-yr 4.47 5-yr ARM 4.51 1-yr ARM 4.58

Sep 10, 2009
30-yr 5.07 15-yr 4.50 5-yr ARM 4.51 1-yr ARM 4.64

Sep 03, 2009
30-yr 5.08 15-yr 4.54 5-yr ARM 4.59 1-yr ARM 4.62

Aug 27, 2009
30-yr 5.14 15-yr 4.58 5-yr ARM 4.67 1-yr ARM 4.69

Feb 19, 2009
30-yr 5.04 15-yr 4.68 5-yr ARM 5.04 1-yr ARM 4.80

In addition to rates we like to look at mortgage payments to provide some perspective. We determined mortgage payments for a 200k loan based on today's rates and rates from September 10th and February 19th.

Sep 24
30-yr $1078.53
15-yr $1525.9
5-yr ARM $1014.55
1-yr ARM $1015.74

Sep 10
30-yr $1082.21
15-yr $1529.98
5-yr ARM $1014.55
1-yr ARM $1030.07

Feb 19
30-yr $1078.53
15-yr $1548.44
5-yr ARM $1078.53
1-yr ARM $1049.33

This kind of shows the same thing in that there has not been a lot of movement in mortgage rates. A payment two weeks ago would be $3.68 more a month (or 0.3% percent more).

Its also interesting that rates are exactly where they were six months ago. Of course six months ago mortgage rates were more newsworthy because at the time 5.04 (for a 30 year mortgage) was an all time low. So although 5.04 is no longer an all time low (rates dropped below 5 in April) and we are not seeing as many stories in the news mortgage rates are still very, very low by historical standards.

The two questions of course are why mortgage rates are not moving, and how long they will stay this low. The expectation is that eventually mortgage rates are going to move up. Some have suggested that mortgage rates could move above 10 percent in a year or two. The idea is that once the economy recovers mortgage rates (along with inflation) will start marching upwards due to the massive government spending during the recession. It seems that although the economy is recovering its doing so rather slowly and this is helping keep mortgage rates down for now. The other question is how long mortgage rates will stay down. My expectation is rates will probably not see that much movement until we see movement in the economy. Once the economy starts moving we should see rates start to move upward.


Ki bikes Shoal Creek when he is not working. He has focused on Austin real estate since graduating. People interested in the Austin market can perform a graphical Austin home search on his site. His site also has a graph of historical historical mortgage rates along with a mortgage rates widget.

Mortgage rates have now dropped for 3 weeks in a row. We are not seeing a lot of movement. 30 year rates have only dropped from 5.14 to 5.04 in the last 3 weeks. What is interesting is that rates are dropping at all. Most of the news have focused on how inflation is pending for the US because of unprecidented government spending. But while the news has focused on pending inflation (and corresponding higher mortgage rates) mortgage rates have continued to drop. Mortgage rates are lower than at any point before 2009 (they were lower in April 2009). Below are rates for the last few weeks along with rates from February 12 (6 months ago)

Sep 17, 2009
30-yr 5.04 15-yr 4.47 5-yr ARM 4.51 1-yr ARM 4.58

Sep 10, 2009
30-yr 5.07 15-yr 4.50 5-yr ARM 4.51 1-yr ARM 4.64

Sep 03, 2009
30-yr 5.08 15-yr 4.54 5-yr ARM 4.59 1-yr ARM 4.62

Aug 27, 2009
30-yr 5.14 15-yr 4.58 5-yr ARM 4.67 1-yr ARM 4.69

Aug 20, 2009
30-yr 5.12 15-yr 4.56 5-yr ARM 4.57 1-yr ARM 4.69

Feb 12, 2009
30-yr 5.16 15-yr 4.81 5-yr ARM 5.23 1-yr ARM 4.94

As we can see in addition to the 30 year the other 3 major mortgage products all fell slightly as well. What interesting is how remarkably stable rates have been for the last 4 weeks. Comparing August 20, 2009 to today the most movement we have seen in any of the four mortgage products is the 1 year arm which has only fallen .11 points.

In addition to rates we like to look at mortgage payments. we calculated out the mortgage payment for a 200k house based on today' rates. We also did the same thing with rates from September 3 (2 weeks ago) and February 12 (6 months ago).

Sep 17
30-yr $1078.53
15-yr $1526.92
5-yr ARM $1014.55
1-yr ARM $1022.89

Sep 03
30-yr $1083.44
15-yr $1534.07
5-yr ARM $1024.09
1-yr ARM $1027.68

Feb 12
30-yr $1093.28
15-yr $1561.86
5-yr ARM $1101.93
1-yr ARM $1066.32

All in all we are not seeing much movement. For the 30 year rate compared to 6 months ago a payment for a 200k mortgage would only be 1.34 percent less (or $14.75 dollars).

So what should we expect to see moving forward. The majority opinion seems to be that we are headed for high inflation. And with high inflation we should also seem substantially higher mortgage rates. Although this is the majority opinion its not the only one. If the economic recovery fails to take hold we could see lower mortgage rates for awhile. Additionally, if the FED times things just right we could avoid inflation and high mortgage rates. I think this is unlikely though because the FED moving prematurely to hold off inflation could hurt the economic recovery.

What is our advice to people looking for a mortgage. My advice is to only consider a 30 year mortgage. With rates expected to increase there is no reason to get a 1 or 5 year arm. I often hear that someone is "sure" they will move in 3 years but plans often change, espically if the real estate market is slow and its difficult to sell the house.



Ki follows mortgage rates news and trends. He works as a Austin realtor. His site has a few mortgage widgets along with information on historical interest rates.

There were some expectations that mortgage rates would fall this week. Instead rates not only did not rise but fell slightly this week. The 30 year rate fell from 5.08 to 5.07 hitting a new low for the summer. The 15 year rate fell from 4.54 to 4.50. The 5 year arm fell from 4.59 to 4.51 while the 1 year arm rose slightly from 4.62 to 4.64.

The continuing fall of the 30 year rate is good news for the national real estate market which is in the midst of a lukewarm recovery. The 5 year arm is seeing more activity now that it is significantly lower than the 30 year arm. Personally I still would heavily favor the 30 year arm with the possibility of seeing double digit interest rates in 5 years because of heavy government spending. The 1 year arm since moving above the 5 year arm has moved into no mans land with there being virtually no reason to get a 1 year arm at this point in time. Below are rates for the last few weeks.

Sep 10, 2009
30-yr 5.07 15-yr 4.50 5-yr ARM 4.51 1-yr ARM 4.64

Sep 03, 2009
30-yr 5.08 15-yr 4.54 5-yr ARM 4.59 1-yr ARM 4.62

Aug 27, 2009
30-yr 5.14 15-yr 4.58 5-yr ARM 4.67 1-yr ARM 4.69

Aug 20, 2009
30-yr 5.12 15-yr 4.56 5-yr ARM 4.57 1-yr ARM 4.69

Aug 13, 2009
30-yr 5.29 15-yr 4.68 5-yr ARM 4.75 1-yr ARM 4.72

Feb 05, 2009
30-yr 5.25 15-yr 4.92 5-yr ARM 5.26 1-yr ARM 4.92

In addition to rates we like to look at actual mortgage payments to gain some more perspective on mortgage rate changes. Based on current mortgage rates we determined the mortgage payment for a 200k loan. We did the same thing with rates from 2 weeks ago and rates from 6 months ago.

Sep 10
30-yr $1082.21
15-yr $1529.98
5-yr ARM $1014.55
1-yr ARM $1030.07

Aug 27
30-yr $1090.82
15-yr $1538.17
5-yr ARM $1033.67
1-yr ARM $1036.07

Jan 29
30-yr $1085.89
15-yr $1560.82
5-yr ARM $1106.88
1-yr ARM $1061.45

Compared to 6 months ago the mortgage payment on a 200k loan is pretty much identical. The payment is $3.68 less a month or a third of one percent.

The real question of course is where mortgage rates are going. There are a few schools of thought. The first is that mortgage rates are going to skyrocket along with inflation caused by the massive government spending over the last few years. There is another school of that that mortgage rates should rise but only slightly and that massive inflation will be curbed by the Federal Reserve.

Either way no one is advocating that mortgage rates are going to fall much further. Therefore my advice would be to look at 30 year rates and to avoid 5 and 1 year arms like the plague. If the first school of thought is correct and mortgage rates rise they will probably not move dramatically until the economy recovers.

Ki lives in Austin Texas. He site has a graph showing historical mortgage rates. His site also has news and resources on real estate in Austin as well as a search of the Austin MLS.

Mortgage rates fell this week to the lowest point since May 28, 2009. Whether May 28, 2009 is the summer is open to some debate. The summer solstice usually is considered the technical beginning of summer which occurred on June 21st this year. Some consider Memorial Day the beginning of summer which was May 25th. Either way this is the lowest we have seen the 30 year mortgage rate in the last 3 months.

The question of course is why mortgage rates are falling. Generally once the economy starts improving interest rates should rise. I think what has happened is that while the actual economy has improved the expectations about the economy have fallen. During the last 2 months people thought the economy might experience a V shaped recovery. Basically once the economy turned around it would recover quickly.

But since that time more people are now expecting a U shaped recovery. Basically the economy is going to recover but it's going to occur more slowly. On the positive side these lower expectations could be lowering mortgage rates. Here are mortgage rates for the last few weeks.

Aug 20, 2009
30-yr 5.12 15-yr 4.56 5-yr ARM 4.57 1-yr ARM 4.69

Aug 13, 2009
30-yr 5.29 15-yr 4.68 5-yr ARM 4.75 1-yr ARM 4.72

Aug 06, 2009
30-yr 5.22 15-yr 4.63 5-yr ARM 4.73 1-yr ARM 4.78

Jul 30, 2009
30-yr 5.25 15-yr 4.69 5-yr ARM 4.75 1-yr ARM 4.80

Jul 23, 2009
30-yr 5.20 15-yr 4.68 5-yr ARM 4.74 1-yr ARM 4.77

As we can see for the last few weeks the 30 year mortgage rate has been hovering from 5.20 to 5.29 until this week when it abruptly fell to 5.12. In addition to rates we like to look at mortgage payments. We took today's rates and translated them into a mortgage payment for a 200k loan. We also did the same thing with rates from August 6 (2 weeks ago) and rates from January 15 (6 months ago).

Aug 20
30-yr $1088.35
15-yr $1536.12
5-yr ARM $1021.7
1-yr ARM $1036.07

Aug 06
30-yr $1100.69
15-yr $1543.3
5-yr ARM $1040.88
1-yr ARM $1046.91

Jan 15
30-yr $1068.75
15-yr $1545.36
5-yr ARM $1104.4
1-yr ARM $1060.23

As we can see there is some savings compared to 2 weeks but nothing too substantial. Compared to 6 months ago a mortgage payment would be 1.83 percent more. So basically we are seeing rates and mortgage payments slightly higher than 6 months ago and slightly lower than the last few months.

What we are going to see moving forward depends on the economy. If we experience a V shaped recovery we should expect mortgage rates to move up quickly. This is because the massive amount of money the US government has poured into the economy during the recession should lead to inflation when the economy recovers. But if the economy experiences a U shaped recovery and continues to lurk around in the doldrums we should see low interest rates for the next few months.


Ki lives in central Texas and works in the real estate market in Austin. His website escapesomewhere provides a mortgage rate widget along with a mortgage calculator widget.

Everyone has felt some of the impact of slumping real estate prices over the past two and a half years, from homeowners trying to tap into shrinking equity to commercial property investors seeing smaller returns and greater vacancies. As 2009 reaches the halfway mark, however, the case for real estate's turnaround is becoming more and more apparent. By 2010, home and commercial property prices will have stabilized further, and interest rates will certainly have risen somewhat. As a result, the next three to six months may be the best opportunity to lock in an attractive mortgage rate, while still reaping the benefits of the best buyer's market in decades.

Many factors influence the real estate market during a recession. However, in the United States, geography plays a much larger role in deciphering statistics which tend to be quoted as national averages. When home prices fall across the country, there is legitimate cause for concern. But the recently released Case-Shiller index provides some promising clues that suggest otherwise. In 7 of the 20 surveyed areas, prices increased between March and April. In several other metropolitan areas the decrease in prices was much smaller than in previous month-on-month comparisons. Most importantly, the nationwide aggregate pace at which home prices have fallen is slowing, with the difference between April and March prices falling a meager .78 points.

This trend points towards stabilization across the board, even as several regions continue to experience contraction. These parts of the United States experienced increased growth throughout the "bubble period," which gained momentum after the dot-com bust, culminating in the spectacular drops seen throughout mid-to-late 2007. This period was marked by two unusual phenomena: the context in the real estate market of speculative and historically high home prices, combined with artificially low interest rates and under-regulated financial products.

These factors are essentially risk-based, and as the financial sector melted down the risk was priced into the record write-downs and subsequent contraction. The extent to which this effect will reinforce any further nominal decreases in home prices remains somewhat uncertain. Their effects will still likely be minimal and take more time to observe. In some of the more adversely affected areas, foreclosures are still high, but no longer the record-setting numbers seen in previous quarters. In addition, any government measures that may be implemented may stem foreclosures further and reduce potential risk to a marginal level.

This systemic and speculative risk has now largely been priced into the market at this point, as evidenced in recent data. Many investors have already begun buying into the markets which continue to grow quietly. This has been occurring in areas which prices have been more stable, such as the Northeast and in states like Texas, where places like Round Rock have continued to grow seemingly unabated. In fact, according to recently released census data, four of the fastest-growing cities in the US are in Texas. This is also reflected in the S&P Shiller index on Dallas home prices, which swung upward 1.7 points between March and April. Many other larger cities in New England and the Pacific Northwest have also continued to experience some growth despite the recession, albeit less than in boom years. These area's track records make them strong contenders for investment or home purchase.

In the broader picture, the Federal Reserve has forecasted a positive GDP in the last half of 2009, after which more competitive investment will end the current buyers market. Buying a home or commercial property will likely not be such a bargain for some time to come, as history shows cycles such as these tend to come every thirty years, with larger dips every sixty or so. That means if you're in for the long haul (or even if you're not) the time may have come to look at real estate once more.


Ki lives in Austin Texas and helps people looking to invest in Austin real estate. On the site, buyers can search for homes in the Austin MLS. He also publishes a monthly blog with trends and statistics on Austin Texas real estate.

Mortgage rates rose again this week. This is the third time in the last 4 weeks that mortgage rates have risen. Why are mortgage rates rising? There are numerous factors at play but generally once the economy recovers it's expected that inflation, and mortgage rates, should rise. The last month of generally positive economic news has probably helped nudge mortgage rates up. Although rates are increasing they are increasing in small steps and not large strides. Since July 16th the 30 year rate has only moved from 5.14 to 5.29. While this is interesting it's certainly not a huge move upward. What is interesting is that the current (small) upward movement in mortgage rates might be the beginning of the rise that many in the financial industry have predicted. If the economy continues to rebound this could be the beginning of mortgage rates steadily moving up to 10% or higher. This is of course dependent on the continued movement of the US economy out of the current recession. While the government has made some statements about curbing inflation it seems more concerned with making sure the US exists the recession. Of the 4 major indexes 3 moved up this week. The 30 year note rose from 5.22 to 5.29, the 15 year mortgage rose from 4.63 to 4.68 and the 5 year arm rose from 4.73 to 4.75. The 1 year arm fell from 4.78 to 4.72. What is also interesting is that when rates were at their lows a few months ago the 5 and 1 year arm was higher than the 30 year fixed rate, which is highly abnormal. Since the 30 year rate has gone up (and the arms have stayed down) the 30 year rate is now above both arms. And now the spread between the 30 year rate and the arms is back to normal. Below are the rates for the different mortgage products for the last few weeks and for January 15 (6 months ago). Aug 13, 2009 30-yr 5.29 15-yr 4.68 5-yr ARM 4.75 1-yr ARM 4.72 Aug 06, 2009 30-yr 5.22 15-yr 4.63 5-yr ARM 4.73 1-yr ARM 4.78 Jul 30, 2009 30-yr 5.25 15-yr 4.69 5-yr ARM 4.75 1-yr ARM 4.80 Jul 23, 2009 30-yr 5.20 15-yr 4.68 5-yr ARM 4.74 1-yr ARM 4.77 Jul 16, 2009 30-yr 5.14 15-yr 4.63 5-yr ARM 4.83 1-yr ARM 4.76 - - - Jan 15, 2009 30-yr 4.96 15-yr 4.65 5-yr ARM 5.25 1-yr ARM 4.89 In addition to rates it's always interesting to look at actual mortgage payments. We took today's rates and using a mortgage calculator translated them into a payment for a 200k mortgage. We also did the same thing with rates from July 30, 2009 (2 weeks ago) and January 15, 2009 (6 months ago). Aug 13 30-yr $1109.36 15-yr $1548.44 5-yr ARM $1043.29 1-yr ARM $1039.68 Jul 30 30-yr $1104.4 15-yr $1549.47 5-yr ARM $1043.29 1-yr ARM $1049.33 Jan 15 30-yr $1068.75 15-yr $1545.36 5-yr ARM $1104.4 1-yr ARM $1060.23 As we can see that while rates have risen the effect on a mortgage payment (looking at the 30 year fixed rate) is relatively small. So what is our advice to potential buyers looking for a mortgage? I would start the process of looking for a lender/mortgage early on. Financing is stricter than it has been in the past and its good to start the process early so any potential problems can be resolved (i.e. credit report problems or extra documentation that is needed). Additionally, with a possible spike in inflation looming there is more of a risk of rates rising than falling so it makes sense to lock in early.

Mortgage Electronic Registration System (MERS) has been used by lenders nationwide to track mortgages via the system's database. Lenders who are members of the program are represented in the enforcement of a promissory note secured by a mortgage. A U.S. Bankruptcy Judge in Nevada ruled earlier this year that MERS could no longer represent lenders foreclosing on homeowners in bankruptcy unless the actual loan document could be produced.

Typically, a mortgage note goes through several iterations of sale to different mortgage lenders, which makes it difficult to produce original loan documentation. When lenders begin foreclosing on homeowners in bankruptcy, the original note is often not available.

MERS is a program that was initiated by several lenders over 20 years ago to simplify the complicated mortgage process. The system is designed to track mortgages and any associated sale of the note via a central database. Over 60 million mortgages are currently monitored by the program. Lenders who are members are represented by MERS throughout the foreclosure process.

Although the bankruptcy judge's ruling presents a roadblock for lenders in the foreclosure process, it is not the first time MERS was challenged in court. The same ruling was handed down in a Florida court; however, the company eventually won on appeal.

For homeowners who owe more than their home is worth, or are unable to pay their mortgage payments, the ruling may only delay proceedings for about a month or more. In attempts to further assist homeowners in default on their mortgage, a Nevada state representative introduced legislation to allow homeowners in financial hardship to ask for arbitration in their mortgage default process. This would overstep service providers like MERS, and require mortgage lenders to be involved, instead.

Even though it was handed down in Nevada, bankruptcy attorneys in other states have voiced appreciation in regards to the ruling. One noted Houston attorney stated that the new law could have a nationwide impact on the ability of lenders to enforce mortgage loans. In addition, it throws some negotiating leverage onto the playing field that was not available before for homeowners in foreclosure going through bankruptcy.

A deluge of complaints have been filed against service providers in regards to aggravating the excessive number of foreclosures initiated in the past two-and-a-half years. On the other hand, MERS argues that its services enable a broader range of home lending options for homebuyers.

The program maintains current mortgage information and ownership, and avoids the astronomical millions associated with recording fees, along with the associated paperwork. MERS officials noted verbiage from one Florida court decision that stated the program was "innovative."

Will the decision hold up? Regardless, as in the Florida case, MERS immediately appealed the judge's decision.

The bigger question, however, is whether the ruling will catch fire in other states. Also, it will be interesting to see if the Nevada statesman's proposed bill will be cause for pause for legislation in other states across the Union.

With all the twists and turns we're seeing in the courts of late, anything could happen.

Ki's company is located in Central Austin. He maintains a website allowing buyers to search for homes in the Austin MLS. He has worked with Austin real estate for almost 10 years. His site has information and graphs on historical interest rates.

The saying "No news is good news" might be applicable with the recent trend with mortgage rates. For the last 2 or 3 weeks for the most part rates have stayed pretty much unchanged. The reason why this could be considered good news is that the economy and stock market seem to be improving. There was a lot of discussion that an improving economy would lead to inflation and in turn higher interest rates. While I still think we are eventually headed to higher interest rates it's nice that at least that is not happening now. This week the 30 year mortgage rate dropped from 5.25 to 5.22. We also saw the 15 year rate drop from 4.69 to 4.63. The 5 year arm and 1 year arm both dropped .02 points this week (4.75 to 4.73 and 4.80 to 4.78 respectively). Below are rates for the last few weeks and from January 15th (6 months ago).

Aug 06, 2009
30-yr 5.22 15-yr 4.63 5-yr ARM 4.73 1-yr ARM 4.78

Jul 30, 2009
30-yr 5.25 15-yr 4.69 5-yr ARM 4.75 1-yr ARM 4.80

Jul 23, 2009
30-yr 5.20 15-yr 4.68 5-yr ARM 4.74 1-yr ARM 4.77

Jul 16, 2009
30-yr 5.14 15-yr 4.63 5-yr ARM 4.83 1-yr ARM 4.76

Jul 09, 2009
30-yr 5.20 15-yr 4.69 5-yr ARM 4.82 1-yr ARM 4.82

Jan 15, 2009
30-yr 4.96 15-yr 4.65 5-yr ARM 5.25 1-yr ARM 4.89

Looking above the 30 year mortgage rate has only moved from 5.14 to 5.25 in the last month which is remarkably stable considering the changes in the economy and the mortgage industry. Rates are still higher than what we saw six months ago but the change is not huge. To illustrate this let's look at changes in actual mortgage payments. Using our free mortgage calculator we took today's rates and translated them into a payment for a 200k loan. We did the same thing with rates from July 23 (two weeks ago) and rates from January 15th, 2009 (6 months ago).

Aug 06
30-yr $1100.69
15-yr $1543.3
5-yr ARM $1040.88
1-yr ARM $1046.91

Jul 23
30-yr $1098.22
15-yr $1548.44
5-yr ARM $1042.08
1-yr ARM $1045.7

Jan 15
30-yr $1068.75
15-yr $1545.36
5-yr ARM $1104.4
1-yr ARM $1060.23

From two weeks ago we are see a change of $2.47. This is pretty insignificant. When mortgage rates first started dropping we saw a difference of $35 from one week to the next running this same calculation. Compared to 6 months ago we see a rise of $31.94 or 2.98 percent. Considering the time frame this is still a relatively small change.

First off what is my advice for people looking for a home and a mortgage? I would still avoid arms. Nothing has changed basically arm's offer a small benefit right now but with most experts predicting higher rates in the future it makes sense to look in for a longer period of time with a 30 year fixed mortgage. What is our prediction moving forward? Long term I would expect rates to move up perhaps to 10 percent or more. In the short term I have been saying that it's hard to know. Know with the economy improving I would expect to see higher rates than what we are currently experiencing a month from now. That is assuming the economy doesn't start sliding backwards.


Ki lives and works in central Texas. His website covers the Austin Texas real estate market. It also has information on historical mortgage rates along with a mortgage rates widget

Austin area home sales are down from a year ago, but prices are holding steady. There are many factors making now a good time to buy: low interest rates, tax incentives for first time buyers and cooperative sellers. As consumers change their spending habits, houses are once again being seen as a long-term purchase of a home and not a quick investment. While the days of the house-buying frenzy are long gone, plenty of serious home buyers remain.

Like the rest of the country, Austin's real estate market is still lagging behind other areas of growth in the economy. While local economists predict Austin will gradually recover from this recession in 2010, housing isn't expected to rebound as quickly. Jim Gaines, a research economist with the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University recently told the Austin-American Statesman that he sees the housing market ending this year with numbers comparable to those in 2002 and 2003. He predicts the Austin area median home price will end the year down somewhere between 1 and 5 percent. Currently the median home price is down one percent from a year ago.

Nationally, home sales have grown at a slow but steady rate since the beginning of the year. According to the Associated Press, sales of previously occupied homes rose by 2.4 percent from April to May, marking the third consecutive increase this year. Foreclosures across the country are bringing out the bargain shoppers and account for about a third of home sales nationally. This has also lowered the national median home price 16.8 percent from where it was a year ago.

Austin certainly has seen a rise in the number of foreclosures over the last eighteen months, but they don't seem to be affecting home values. Foreclosed properties have dragged home values down significantly in some parts of the country, exacerbating the housing crisis even more. However, Austin area foreclosures represent a relatively small fraction of the supply of homes on the market.

Just like the rest of the news on the economy these days, the housing market falls into the category of "not as bad as expected" rather than actual gains. The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index measuring home values in 20 major cities is down 18.1 percent, a decline for the third straight month. However, the decline was not a record low and better than analyst expected, according to the Associated Press. In fact, eight of the metro areas in the index posted price gains, including Dallas with the largest increase at 1.7 percent. Overall the index is off nearly 33 percent from the peak in home prices in the spring of 2006.

So, is it a good time to buy a house? All indications are that home prices are fairly stable overall in the Austin area. In fact, analysts like Gaines believe it's much more likely that prices will creep up rather than take a sudden plunge. That may not be good news for the bargain hunters, but it does mean that buying a home right now is a sound investment.


Ki began working with Austin Texas real estate a decade ago. He created a searchable website where buyers can search for Austin homes for sale. In his free time, Ki enjoys the Austin music scene. He also writes on his blog which covers news and statistics on the Austin real estate market

Although we are not seeing too much movement it looks like mortgage rates are starting to trend upward. It's interesting to note that the stock market had its strongest July in several years. Once the economy has a full recovery there are some predictions that inflation will spike and mortgage rates will hit double digits. We are a ways from that but its interesting none the less to see rates slowly moving up and the economy slowly moves into recovery mode. All four of the major mortgage products moved up this week. The 30 year mortgage went from 5.20 to 5.25; the 15 year fixed went from 4.68 to 4.69. The 5 and 1 year arm went from 4.74 to 4.75 and 4.77 to 4.80 respectively. Below are rates from the last few weeks and from January 15, 2009 (6 months ago).

Jul 30, 2009
30-yr 5.25 15-yr 4.69 5-yr ARM 4.75 1-yr ARM 4.80

Jul 23, 2009
30-yr 5.20 15-yr 4.68 5-yr ARM 4.74 1-yr ARM 4.77

Jul 16, 2009
30-yr 5.14 15-yr 4.63 5-yr ARM 4.83 1-yr ARM 4.76

Jul 09, 2009
30-yr 5.20 15-yr 4.69 5-yr ARM 4.82 1-yr ARM 4.82

Jul 02, 2009
30-yr 5.32 15-yr 4.77 5-yr ARM 4.88 1-yr ARM 4.94

Jan 15, 2009
30-yr 4.96 15-yr 4.65 5-yr ARM 5.25 1-yr ARM 4.89

In addition to looking at rates it's always nice to translate them into actual mortgage payments. We used a mortgage calculator to translate a 200k loan into a mortgage payment based on current rates. We also did the same thing with rates from 2 weeks ago and rates from 6 months ago.

Jul 30
30-yr $1104.4
15-yr $1549.47
5-yr ARM $1043.29
1-yr ARM $1049.33

Jul 16
30-yr $1090.82
15-yr $1543.3
5-yr ARM $1052.96
1-yr ARM $1044.5

Jan 15
30-yr $1068.75
15-yr $1545.36
5-yr ARM $1104.4
1-yr ARM $1060.23

So while payments are higher (assuming one got a 30 year mortgage) they are not that much higher. Compared to 6 months ago a mortgage payment (on a 200k loan) would be $35.65 more a month or 3.33 percent higher. Enough for a fee extra coffee's a month but nothing substantial. But if rates spike up to 10 percent (as some predict) the payment would be 1755.14 which would be a 58.92 percent increase.

So what is our advice? As has been true for the last year I would avoid the arms like the plague. Although rates are up over the last few months historically speaking rates are still very low. There are very few cases where it makes sense to get an arm and risk refinancing in a few years at potentially a much higher rate. And if rates go down substantially (which is pretty unlikely) one can always refinance at the lower rate.

Also in the same vein if one is considering getting a mortgage in the next month or so I would suggest looking in early if one can do so without extra fees. Although rates could go either way there is a more of a risk of them moving up than down over the next month.


Ki writes frequently about mortgage rates. In addition to providing information about Austin Tx real estate his site provides a mortgage widget and a free mortgage calculator.

Mortgage rates continue to fall this week. The 30 year rate fell from 5.32 to 5.20. While this is not lower than the rates we saw a few months ago this is lower than any recorded rate before the start of 2009. The 15 year rate fell as well dropping from 4.69 to 4.63. In the last 5 weeks rates have fallen steadily each week going from 5.59 to 5.14. Below are rates from the last 5 weeks and rates from December 31, 2009 (6 months ago).

Jul 16, 2009
30-yr 5.14 15-yr 4.63 5-yr ARM 4.83 1-yr ARM 4.76

Jul 09, 2009
30-yr 5.20 15-yr 4.69 5-yr ARM 4.82 1-yr ARM 4.82

Jul 02, 2009
30-yr 5.32 15-yr 4.77 5-yr ARM 4.88 1-yr ARM 4.94

Jun 25, 2009
30-yr 5.42 15-yr 4.87 5-yr ARM 4.99 1-yr ARM 4.93

Jun 18, 2009
30-yr 5.38 15-yr 4.89 5-yr ARM 4.97 1-yr ARM 4.95

Jun 11, 2009
30-yr 5.59 15-yr 5.06 5-yr ARM 5.17 1-yr ARM 5.04

Dec 31, 2008
30-yr 5.10 15-yr 4.83 5-yr ARM 5.57 1-yr ARM 4.85

So the question remains after rising a few months ago why are rates suddenly falling. Part of it can be attributed to the negative economic news that has been coming out. While the economy is not necessarily getting worse the recovery seems to be moving slower than first thought. The slow recovery has put the breaks (for now) on inflation fears and has probably helped to push down interest rates as well. This is of course good news for the real estate market. The longer rates stay low the better the prospects for the real estate market to get rid of some of the excess inventory that has built up over the last few years.

In addition to rates we like to look at mortgage payments. Using our free mortgage calculator we looked at mortgage payments based on today's rates for a 200k mortgage.

Jul 16
30-yr $1090.82
15-yr $1543.3
5-yr ARM $1052.96
1-yr ARM $1044.5

We also did the same calculation on rates from 5 weeks ago (when rates first started to fall) and rates from the beginning of the year.

Jun 11
30-yr $1146.89
15-yr $1587.84
5-yr ARM $1094.51
1-yr ARM $1078.53

Dec 31
30-yr $1085.89
15-yr $1563.93
5-yr ARM $1144.37
1-yr ARM $1055.38

As we can see the drop in rates over the last few weeks is rather significant. A mortgage payment would be 4.88% less today than it was 5 weeks ago. For a 200k it would be $56.07 cheaper a month.

So what is going to happen in the future? It's hard to tell and I will be the first to admin I was pleasantly caught off guard by the recent drop in rates. While its hard to know what is going to happen in the next few weeks over the next 6 months I would expect rates to rise significantly as the economy starts to recover. Over the next few weeks I would expect there is more of a risk of rates rising than falling simply because rates are incredibly low now.


Ki works as an agent in the Austin market and enjoys spending his free time in the hill country. His site provides information on mortgage rates along with a free mortgage calculator. It also provides extensive information on Austin Tx real estate.

Mortgage Rates fell this week with the 30 year rate dropping from 5.42 to 5.32. They have fallen .27 points from their recent high of 5.59 reached on June 11, 2009. Rates are still up from the all time low of 4.78 they reached on April 30, 2009. Except for the 1 year arm the other major rates dropped as well. The 15 year fixed rate dropped from 4.87 to 4.77 and the 5 year arm dropped from 4.99 to 4.88. The one year arm rose slightly from 4.93 to 4.94. Below are rates for the last few weeks.

Jul 02, 2009
30-yr 5.32 15-yr 4.77 5-yr ARM 4.88 1-yr ARM 4.94

Jun 25, 2009
30-yr 5.42 15-yr 4.87 5-yr ARM 4.99 1-yr ARM 4.93

Jun 18, 2009
30-yr 5.38 15-yr 4.89 5-yr ARM 4.97 1-yr ARM 4.95

Jun 11, 2009
30-yr 5.59 15-yr 5.06 5-yr ARM 5.17 1-yr ARM 5.04

Jun 04, 2009
30-yr 5.29 15-yr 4.79 5-yr ARM 4.85 1-yr ARM 4.81

Dec 31, 2008
30-yr 5.10 15-yr 4.83 5-yr ARM 5.57 1-yr ARM 4.85

In addition to rates we also like to analyze mortgage payments. Using our free mortgage calculator we took today's mortgage rates and translated them into a mortgage payment for a 200k loan. We did the same thing with rates from June 25, 2009 and December 31, 2008 (6 months ago).

Jul 02
30-yr $1113.09
15-yr $1557.72
5-yr ARM $1059.02
1-yr ARM $1066.32

Jun 25
30-yr $1125.55
15-yr $1568.07
5-yr ARM $1072.42
1-yr ARM $1065.1

Dec 31
30-yr $1085.89
15-yr $1563.93
5-yr ARM $1144.37
1-yr ARM $1055.38

While a potential mortgage payment is down from last week it is up $27.20 (2.5 percent) from 6 months ago.

Although rates are low it's important to note that loans are not freely available. Banks are still extremely strict on the properties and individuals that will receive loans. For instance loans for non warrantable condos (where 50% or more of the units are rented instead of owner occupied) have pretty much disappeared. The credit scores thresholds needed for a loan have increased as well. So although mortgage rates are near historic lows the lending industry continues to be the biggest negative factor dragging on the real estate market.
So what do we expect to see moving forward? There is a huge upward pressure on mortgage rates because of the amount of borrowing the US government has engaged in over the last year. So while it's hard to know what is going to happen over the next month we should see higher mortgage rates in the next year. Since rates are going to be higher this is a good reason to avoid the 1 year arm since by the time the arm expires rates could be over 8 percent.

More importantly is whether the lending industry will ease up on some of the current mortgage restrictions. While when the market finally improves it's assumed some lending restrictions will disappear but it's doubtful that lending restrictions will ease up before then.


Ki lives in Austin Texas. His site provides a mortgage widget along with a free mortgage calculator. It also has a search for Austin Tx real estate.

After falling from 5.59 to 5.38 the previous week it looks like mortgage rates for the most part held steady this week. Of the four major mortgage products two fell and two rose. But for all four the movement was minimal. Thirty year mortgage rates rose from 5.38 to 5.42 and the 5 year arm rose from 4.97 to 4.99. The 15 year rate dropped slightly from 4.89 to 4.87 and the 1 year arm fell from 4.95 to 4.93. Below are rates for the last few weeks.

Jun 25, 2009
30-yr 5.42 15-yr 4.87 5-yr ARM 4.99 1-yr ARM 4.93

Jun 18, 2009
30-yr 5.38 15-yr 4.89 5-yr ARM 4.97 1-yr ARM 4.95

Jun 11, 2009
30-yr 5.59 15-yr 5.06 5-yr ARM 5.17 1-yr ARM 5.04

Jun 04, 2009
30-yr 5.29 15-yr 4.79 5-yr ARM 4.85 1-yr ARM 4.81

May 28, 2009
30-yr 4.91 15-yr 4.53 5-yr ARM 4.82 1-yr ARM 4.69

Dec 24, 2008
30-yr 5.14 15-yr 4.91 5-yr ARM 5.49 1-yr ARM 4.95

So while the 30 year rate has dropped from its recent peak of 5.59 on June 11, 2009 we are still up from the extremely low rates we saw in May. One interesting thing to note is that in the last 6 months 30 year rates have increased from 5.14 to 5.42. On the other hand 5 year arms have dropped from 5.49 to 4.99. Even with these changes I would still look for fixed rates over arms. There is a good chance that rates could be much higher in a year or 5 years when the arms would expire.

In addition to rates we also like to look at actual mortgage payments. Using our mortgage calculator we took rates from this week and converted them into a mortgage payment on 200k loan. We also did the same thing with rates from June 18th and from December 24th (6 months ago).

Jun 25
30-yr $1125.55
15-yr $1568.07
5-yr ARM $1072.42
1-yr ARM $1065.1

Jun 18
30-yr $1120.56
15-yr $1570.15
5-yr ARM $1069.97
1-yr ARM $1067.53

Dec 24
30-yr $1090.82
15-yr $1572.22
5-yr ARM $1134.32
1-yr ARM $1067.53

So as we can see the movement in the last week is minimal. Compared to 3 months ago a mortgage payment today would be $34.73 higher or 3.18 percent. Even though mortgage rates are higher than what they were before current rates are still low by historical terms.

Mortgage rates only provide part of the picture for how the lending environment is affecting the real estate market. The other part is that lenders remain very strict in their policies on when they will give out loans. So lenders are offering loans with low mortgage rates but they are not offering them to everyone.

This of course is having a serious dampening effect on the real estate markets potential recovery. Freddie Mac is particular is enforcing a number of new rules. While the government has spent significant resources on keeping mortgage rates low and easier and more effective method to help the real estate market would be to look through Freddie Mac's loan restrictions.

Ki is a realtor in Austin Texas. His site is a resource on Austin Texas real estate. It also provides a mortgage widget along with mortgage calculator code

So for the previous two weeks we saw sizable gains in mortgage rates. Between May 28th and June 11th 30 year mortgage rates jumped from 4.91 to 5.59. This week we saw rates drop down to 5.38. Although we are still above what we were at two weeks ago it's nice to see mortgage rates moving back down. The other major mortgage products all went down as well. The 15 year dropped from 5.06 to 4.89. The 5 and 1 year arms dropped from 5.17 to 4.97 (5 year arm) and 5.04 to 4.95 (1 year arm). Below are rates for the 4 major mortgage products since May 21st.

Jun 18, 2009
30-yr 5.38 15-yr 4.89 5-yr ARM 4.97 1-yr ARM 4.95

Jun 11, 2009
30-yr 5.59 15-yr 5.06 5-yr ARM 5.17 1-yr ARM 5.04

Jun 04, 2009
30-yr 5.29 15-yr 4.79 5-yr ARM 4.85 1-yr ARM 4.81

May 28, 2009
30-yr 4.91 15-yr 4.53 5-yr ARM 4.82 1-yr ARM 4.69

May 21, 2009
30-yr 4.82 15-yr 4.50 5-yr ARM 4.79 1-yr ARM 4.82

Dec 18, 2008
30-yr 5.19 15-yr 4.92 5-yr ARM 5.60 1-yr ARM 4.94

So why are mortgage rates dropping? Basically for the last few weeks the economy has been improving and consequently we have seen mortgage rates increasing. In addition to that the government held a few bond auctions that went poorly which also provided upward pressure on mortgage rates. In the last week we have seen some signs the economy might not be recovering as cleanly and quickly as first hoped which has the effect of pushing mortgage rates down.

In addition to mortgage rates it's always nice to look at actual mortgage payments. We took today's rates and used a mortgage calculator and turned them into mortgage payments for a 200k loan. We also did the same thing with rates from June 11th (last week) and rates from December 18th (6 months ago).

Jun 18
30-yr $1120.56
15-yr $1570.15
5-yr ARM $1069.97
1-yr ARM $1067.53

Jun 11
30-yr $1146.89
15-yr $1587.84
5-yr ARM $1094.51
1-yr ARM $1078.53

Dec 18
30-yr $1096.98
15-yr $1573.26
5-yr ARM $1148.15
1-yr ARM $1066.32

As we can see payments based on 30 year mortgage rates the monthly payment on a 200k loans is about $26 dollars lower than they were last week.

So what is our advice? First of all I would still recommend 30 year mortgages. While rates on 5 and 1 year arms are lower I still expect rates to be much higher in 1 year and 5 years from now. So basically it's not worth the risk of having to refinance in a few years. Although rates are higher than they were a few weeks ago they are still near historical lows.

As always it's hard to predict what is going to happen moving forward. I would expect volatility in rates over the next month as we figure out whether the economy is one the road to recovery. Once the economy recovers we expect rates to increase rapidly. The government borrowed 50 cents of every dollar it spent this year. That mountain of debt should lead to higher interest rates.

Ki works as realtor in Austin Texas. His site is filled with information about Austin Texas real estate. It also provides information on mortgage rates along with a free mortgage calculator.

Is the recession near the end? Is the American economy on its way to recovery? The answer is probably yes. That's good news, right? Not so fast, say some economic analysts. And they mean, literally, that the stock market may be rebounding a little too quickly.

According to a recent report at Yahoo Finance, the stock market's rally in recent months is a bit of a mixed blessing. The hope that the economy is on the rebound "has lifted the Standard & Poor's 500 index, a benchmark for many investments like mutual funds, an enormous 39 percent from a 12-year low on March 9. Those kinds of gains might normally take four years to materialize."

Both being too quick to call it a recovery and not cautious enough in investing could cause this budding economic upturn to wither on the vine. The numbers remain mixed, with the number of job losses in the month of May are down, but unemployment is up. While the government's report of 345,000 jobs lost is the lowest since September, the actual unemployment rate is 9.4 percent. This indicates that although less people are being laid off, it is still very tough to find a job out there. In fact, the overall number of job seekers rose as college graduates flood the job markets.

Even Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has said, even once the economy begins to recover, jobs will be the last sector to rebound. But there are still other troubling signs out there. Recent Commerce Department data shows that May retail sales were mixed, but in general analysts were surprised that more shoppers hadn't returned to stores. Wall Street may be throwing caution to wind, but Main Street seems to be holding onto their cash, with the savings rate up again last month.

One of the biggest downfalls of overzealous investing is that investors are helping push interest rates higher. According to Yahoo, investors have been selling off Treasury bills because they feel they are no longer in need of the safety of government debt. This causes mortgage rates and other kinds of loans for consumers to rise. Interest rates are still historically low, but they have been creeping up in the last few weeks. As the interest rates goes up, borrowing is falling off. The Federal Reserve reported last week that consumer borrowing in April fell by twice as much as analysts had been expecting.

The latest results of the AP's Economic Stress Index, which tracks the economic strains in 3100 counties across the country, show that many areas of the country are struggling more than they were a year ago.
"The AP calculates a score from 1 to 100 based on each county's rate of unemployment, foreclosure and bankruptcy, with lower numbers indicating less economic pain. The average Stress score dipped to 9.7 in April, from 10.3 in March. In April 2008, the national average was 5.9."

So while most indications show improvement in the economy in the first part of 2009, a slow, steady recovery is more likely to help this nation that has been stressed in so many ways over the last year and a half. After all, exuberant investing is what got us into this mess in the first place.


Ki lives and works in Austin and has worked in the Austin real estate market for 10 years. He maintains a search of Austin MLS on his website. It also has general information on Austin real estate and current mortgage rates

Last week mortgage rates moved up rapidly, moving up from 4.91 to 5.29. This week mortgage rates again jumped up .3 points going from 5.29 to 5.59. On May 21st rates were sitting at 4.82 which was a 40 year low. Now just a few weeks later rates are at 5.59. This is the highest we have seen rates since November 26, 2008. Unlike last week this week all the other major mortgage products went up as well. The 15 year rate jumped from 4.79 to 5.06. The 5 year arm moved from 4.85 to 5.17 and the 1 year arm moved from 4.81 to 5.04.

So what caused the sudden spike in mortgage rates? Basically the government had a few recent auctions of government debt that went poorly. With less interest in government debt, t-bills and mortgage rates have started to increase.

Below are rates for the major mortgage products for the last few weeks.

Jun 11, 2009
30-yr 5.59 15-yr 5.06 5-yr ARM 5.17 1-yr ARM 5.04

Jun 04, 2009
30-yr 5.29 15-yr 4.79 5-yr ARM 4.85 1-yr ARM 4.81

May 28, 2009
30-yr 4.91 15-yr 4.53 5-yr ARM 4.82 1-yr ARM 4.69

May 21, 2009
30-yr 4.82 15-yr 4.50 5-yr ARM 4.79 1-yr ARM 4.82

May 14, 2009
30-yr 4.86 15-yr 4.52 5-yr ARM 4.82 1-yr ARM 4.71

Dec 11, 2008
30-yr 5.47 15-yr 5.20 5-yr ARM 5.82 1-yr ARM 5.09

In addition to rates we like to look at mortgage payments. Using a mortgage calculator we took rates from this week and translated them into a mortgage payment for a 200k loan. We also did the same thing with rates from June 4th, May 28th and from December 11, 2008 (6 months ago)

Jun 11
30-yr $1146.89
15-yr $1587.84
5-yr ARM $1094.51
1-yr ARM $1078.53

Jun 04
30-yr $1109.36
15-yr $1559.79
5-yr ARM $1055.38
1-yr ARM $1050.53

May 28
30-yr $1062.66
15-yr $1533.05
5-yr ARM $1051.74
1-yr ARM $1036.07

Dec 11
30-yr $1131.81
15-yr $1602.5
5-yr ARM $1176.05
1-yr ARM $1084.67

So as we can see mortgage payments have jumped drastically. Compared to 2 weeks ago the mortgage for a 200k loan has increased by $84.23 or 7.3 percent.

One point is that although rates have jumped rapidly historically speaking rates are still very low.

So what do we expect moving forward? There is some speculation that rates will fall after the recent rise. I am not sure if this will happen or not there are some powerful forces moving mortgage rates. And regardless of what happens in the next few weeks with the massive government borrowing its expected that in 6 months rates will be significantly higher than what we are seeing today.

So what is our advice to people looking for a home? First of all I would lock in immediately. While rates might go down there is a significant chance will continue to rise. If rates fall you can always relock at the lower rate. Additionally, I would avoid arms. Although the difference between 30 year rates and arm's has increased I would expect rates to be much higher in a year.


Ki lives in Austin Texas. His website provides information on Austin Texas real estate. It also provides a mortgage widget and a free mortgage calculator.