The fact is that the financial meltdown, now widely known as the Great Recession, started on Wall Street. It is also a fact that the meltdown quickly reverberated off the pavement of Main Street in the form of foreclosures and job losses. These things are clear. What is harder to understand is why so many on Wall Street continue to prosper while Main Street is still in shambles.

Perhaps the most blaring of the Wall Street bling is what has become the hated catch-phrase of this recession: executive compensation. While there have been rumblings and rumors of this from day one of the financial meltdown, reports came out in October that the executives of the top seven banks receiving government bailout money would also be receiving billions in bonuses. Big bonuses to the Wall Street elite is not new news, a fact Time magazine recently pointed with an article on the long history of executive pay.

In the 1890s, banker J.P. Morgan made 20 times what the average worker earned. By 1991, CEOs were earning 140 times what the little guy made. The trajectory of executive pay continues to rise, with an average S&P 500 top executive in 2007 earning in just three measly hours what a minimum-wage worker made in a year. Believe it or not, Plato recommended that top earning individuals in a society should never make more than five times what the lowest earner was paid.

Why do these executives get paid so much? If you ask them, they deserve every penny because their prosperity is necessary for everyone else to prosper, too. Goldman Sachs international chairman recently said, "We have to tolerate the inequality as a way to achieve greater prosperity for all." The research to back these claims has so far been mixed. However, there is some empirical evidence that Wall Street pay has reached a level that no longer supports the prosperity-for-all claims.

The recession certainly seems to bear that data out. The indignant uproar over executive compensation at companies that received bailout money has led to the appointment of a "pay czar." Treasury Department official Kenneth Feinberg has been commissioned with reining in the pay of the top 25 executives at each of the seven financial companies receiving the largest portion of bailout funds.

The pay czar proposes to cut salaries and bonuses of those top executives in half, capping salaries at $500,000 and bonuses at $25,000. The hope is that limiting the compensation will in turn limit the amount of risks financial executives are willing to take. The Federal Reserve plans to take limiting risky banking even further. According to the Associated Press, the Fed proposes to monitor executive pay at thousands of banks, even those that didn't receive a dime of bailout funds.

The reality is that Wall Street will always make considerably more than the average (and even the not-so-average) Joe on Main Street. The argument can be made that these are very talented financial wizards who do more good than Main Street realizes. However, the Great Recession offers a powerful counter argument about too much pay and a cautionary tale about taking too much risk.


Ki lives in Austin Texas and works in the Austin real estate market. His site has a search for listings in the Austin MLS. He also has information on mortgage interest rates and general information on Austin real estate

The 30 year rate rose again this week rising from 4.92 to 5.00. Now in the last two weeks 30 year mortgage rates have risen from 4.87 to 5.00. Most of the other major mortgage products rose as well. The 15 year rate rose from 4.37 to 4.43. Both the 5 year arm rising from 4.38 to 4.40 and the 1 year arm was the only product to fall moving from 4.60 to 4.54.

While this is not a huge jump the question is are we seeing the tip of the iceberg with rising rates? The expectation has been that rates would rise as the economy improves. While the economy is by no means doing well it seems to be improving from what we have seen in the last year. Additionally, the government has lowered its volume of buying mortgage backed securities. This has helped mortgage rates to rise in the last two weeks and led to speculation of further rises. Below are rates for the last few weeks.

Oct 22, 2009
30-yr 5.00 15-yr 4.43 5-yr ARM 4.40 1-yr ARM 4.54

Oct 15, 2009
30-yr 4.92 15-yr 4.37 5-yr ARM 4.38 1-yr ARM 4.60

Oct 08, 2009
30-yr 4.87 15-yr 4.33 5-yr ARM 4.35 1-yr ARM 4.53

Oct 01, 2009
30-yr 4.94 15-yr 4.36 5-yr ARM 4.42 1-yr ARM 4.49

Sep 24, 2009
30-yr 5.04 15-yr 4.46 5-yr ARM 4.51 1-yr ARM 4.52

Mar 26, 2009
30-yr 4.85 15-yr 4.58 5-yr ARM 4.96 1-yr ARM 4.85

In spite of the increases rates are still relatively low. They are lower than at any point before January 2009 and lower than they were just last month. In addition to looking at rates we also like to see mortgage payments. Using our mortgage calculator we translated rates from October 22, October 8 and March 26 into a mortgage payment for a 200k loan.

Oct 22
30-yr $1073.64
15-yr $1522.84
5-yr ARM $1001.52
1-yr ARM $1018.12

Oct 08
30-yr $1057.8
15-yr $1512.66
5-yr ARM $995.62
1-yr ARM $1016.93

Mar 26
30-yr $1055.38
15-yr $1538.17
5-yr ARM $1068.75
1-yr ARM $1055.38

As we can see again there is not a huge difference. Compared to 6 months ago a mortgage payment is only 1.73 percent higher ($18.26 more a month).

So what is going to happen moving forward? The fear of rates hitting 12 percent has probably lessoned. Basically if the economy quickly recovered the speculation was that inflation could spiral out of control. Since the economic recovery seems to be a somewhat slow process the expectation is that mortgage rates and inflation will rise but it's doubtful they will move above 10 percent.

That said if one is looking at buying its best to lock in rates now considering that rates are rising and the expectation is that they will probably be higher a month from now.


Ki has lived and worked in Austin, Texas for over 10 years. He has a comprehensive understanding of Austin Tx real estate. His site provides graphs of historical mortgage interest rates along with a free mortgage calculator.

After falling for the last 6 weeks mortgage rates started to rise this week. The 30 year rate rose from 4.87 to 4.92. The 15 year mortgage rose from 4.33 to 4.37. Both arms rose as well with the 5 year arm rising from 4.35 to 4.38 and the 1 year arm rising from 4.53 to 4.60. Below are mortgage rates for the last several weeks along with mortgage rates from March 19, 2009.

Oct 15, 2009
30-yr 4.92 15-yr 4.37 5-yr ARM 4.38 1-yr ARM 4.60

Oct 08, 2009
30-yr 4.87 15-yr 4.33 5-yr ARM 4.35 1-yr ARM 4.53

Oct 01, 2009
30-yr 4.94 15-yr 4.36 5-yr ARM 4.42 1-yr ARM 4.49

Sep 24, 2009
30-yr 5.04 15-yr 4.46 5-yr ARM 4.51 1-yr ARM 4.52

Sep 17, 2009
30-yr 5.04 15-yr 4.47 5-yr ARM 4.51 1-yr ARM 4.58

Mar 19, 2009
30-yr 4.98 15-yr 4.61 5-yr ARM 4.98 1-yr ARM 4.91

Overall its not that interesting that rates moved up. Moving up .05 points is not that significant. For the last few months the speculation has been that rates are going to eventually move up. Additionally, the federal government has been pulling back on the amount of mortgage securities it was buying (which was pushing mortgage rates down). So the question is whether this weeks rise in mortgage rates was just normal volatility or the beginning of the steady rise in mortgage rates that some have been predicting. At this point it's an impossible question to answer for the most part we will have to wait and see.

In addition to rates it's also interesting to look at mortgage payments. We took today's rates and determined the mortgage payment on a 200k loan. We also did the same thing with rates from October 1st (2 weeks ago) and March 12, 2009 (6 months ago).

Oct 15
30-yr $1063.88
15-yr $1516.73
5-yr ARM $999.16
1-yr ARM $1025.28

Oct 01
30-yr $1066.32
15-yr $1515.71
5-yr ARM $1003.88
1-yr ARM $1012.18

Mar 12
30-yr $1077.31
15-yr $1544.33
5-yr ARM $1072.42
1-yr ARM $1049.33

Overall looking at mortgage rates/mortgage payments from 2 weeks and 6 months ago we are not seeing a lot of movement. Compared to March 12 (6 months ago) a mortgage payment on a 200k loan would only be $13.42 less a month or 1.24 percent less. By comparison if rates rise to 7 percent (historically about average) a mortgage payment would be 266.72 more a month or a rise of 25%. While a rise to 7 percent seems like a lot many experts are expecting rates to move up to 9 or 10 percent.

So what is our advice for people looking for a mortgage? First it's probably best to start looking for a mortgage early on in the home buying process. It's more difficult to get a loan and waiting to the last minute is not advisable. Additionally, it's probably advisable to lock in a rate earlier instead of later. While mortgage rates could fall its doubtful they could drop by much at this point. On the other hand it's possible that mortgage rates could move up dramatically. So there is more to lose than gain by waiting to lock in on a mortgage. If mortgage rates do start to rise dramatically it could deal a serious blow to the real estate recovery we are currently seeing in several markets around the country.


Ki works in Austin real estate. His site has different mortgage widgets to keep track of mortgage rates. His site escapesomewhere.com has information on Austin along with a blog focused on Austin Texas real estate

Mortgage Rates Fell yet again this week. The 30 year fell from 5.04 to 4.94. This marks the 5th week in a row where mortgage rates have either fallen or held steady. For the most part rates have been slowly falling. In fact this week accounts for half of the total fall in the last five weeks. So how does 4.94 look in a historical context. It is the lowest rate we have seen since May 28th. More importantly though it is lower than any rate we have seen prior to March 26, 2009 in the 40 years we have been compiling reliable data on average mortgage rates.

In addition to the 30 year rate the other major mortgage products fell as well. The 15 year fixed fell from 4.46 to 4.36. The 5 and 1 year arm fell from 4.51 to 4.42 and 4.52 to 4.49 respectively. Below are rates from the last few weeks.

Oct 01, 2009
30-yr 4.94 15-yr 4.36 5-yr ARM 4.42 1-yr ARM 4.49

Sep 24, 2009
30-yr 5.04 15-yr 4.46 5-yr ARM 4.51 1-yr ARM 4.52

Sep 17, 2009
30-yr 5.04 15-yr 4.47 5-yr ARM 4.51 1-yr ARM 4.58

Sep 10, 2009
30-yr 5.07 15-yr 4.50 5-yr ARM 4.51 1-yr ARM 4.64

Sep 03, 2009
30-yr 5.08 15-yr 4.54 5-yr ARM 4.59 1-yr ARM 4.62

Mar 05, 2009
30-yr 5.15 15-yr 4.72 5-yr ARM 5.08 1-yr ARM 4.86

So why are rates falling. The fed has been buying mortgage backed securities to keep rates low. But the expectation is that interest rates cannot stay this low forever. Historically rates are abnormally low and at some point they are going to start moving back up. One thing to watch is the government's buying of mortgage backed securities. To stop inflation from getting out of control the fed needs to stop buying securities once the economy starts improving and recently the fed has started to pull back on the volume of mortgage securities they are purchasing.

In addition to rates its also helpful to look at actual mortgage payments to provide perspective. We translated today's rates into a payment on a 200k mortgage. We also did the same thing with rates from September 17th and February 26th.

Oct 01
30-yr $1066.32
15-yr $1515.71
5-yr ARM $1003.88
1-yr ARM $1012.18

Sep 17
30-yr $1078.53
15-yr $1526.92
5-yr ARM $1014.55
1-yr ARM $1022.89

Feb 26
30-yr $1082.21
15-yr $1548.44
5-yr ARM $1080.98
1-yr ARM $1050.53

Looking at the 30 year rate a mortgage payment is pretty similar to 2 weeks ago and 6 months ago. A 200k mortgage 6 months ago would have been 1.46 percent less or $15.89 less a month.

So what is going to happen moving forward. I would expect rates to stay around 5 for the time being. As long as the government continues buying mortgage backed securities we should see rates at historically low levels. Once the market starts to improve rates will start to increase. If the government is careful and avoids inflation rates should likely rise to 6-8 percent. If the government loses control of inflation we could see rates move up into the double digits.

Ki studied at UT. He hosts a website with a graphical Austin home search. His site also has a graph showing mortgage rate trends along with several mortgage widgets.

Mortgage rates have now dropped for 3 weeks in a row. We are not seeing a lot of movement. 30 year rates have only dropped from 5.14 to 5.04 in the last 3 weeks. What is interesting is that rates are dropping at all. Most of the news have focused on how inflation is pending for the US because of unprecidented government spending. But while the news has focused on pending inflation (and corresponding higher mortgage rates) mortgage rates have continued to drop. Mortgage rates are lower than at any point before 2009 (they were lower in April 2009). Below are rates for the last few weeks along with rates from February 12 (6 months ago)

Sep 17, 2009
30-yr 5.04 15-yr 4.47 5-yr ARM 4.51 1-yr ARM 4.58

Sep 10, 2009
30-yr 5.07 15-yr 4.50 5-yr ARM 4.51 1-yr ARM 4.64

Sep 03, 2009
30-yr 5.08 15-yr 4.54 5-yr ARM 4.59 1-yr ARM 4.62

Aug 27, 2009
30-yr 5.14 15-yr 4.58 5-yr ARM 4.67 1-yr ARM 4.69

Aug 20, 2009
30-yr 5.12 15-yr 4.56 5-yr ARM 4.57 1-yr ARM 4.69

Feb 12, 2009
30-yr 5.16 15-yr 4.81 5-yr ARM 5.23 1-yr ARM 4.94

As we can see in addition to the 30 year the other 3 major mortgage products all fell slightly as well. What interesting is how remarkably stable rates have been for the last 4 weeks. Comparing August 20, 2009 to today the most movement we have seen in any of the four mortgage products is the 1 year arm which has only fallen .11 points.

In addition to rates we like to look at mortgage payments. we calculated out the mortgage payment for a 200k house based on today' rates. We also did the same thing with rates from September 3 (2 weeks ago) and February 12 (6 months ago).

Sep 17
30-yr $1078.53
15-yr $1526.92
5-yr ARM $1014.55
1-yr ARM $1022.89

Sep 03
30-yr $1083.44
15-yr $1534.07
5-yr ARM $1024.09
1-yr ARM $1027.68

Feb 12
30-yr $1093.28
15-yr $1561.86
5-yr ARM $1101.93
1-yr ARM $1066.32

All in all we are not seeing much movement. For the 30 year rate compared to 6 months ago a payment for a 200k mortgage would only be 1.34 percent less (or $14.75 dollars).

So what should we expect to see moving forward. The majority opinion seems to be that we are headed for high inflation. And with high inflation we should also seem substantially higher mortgage rates. Although this is the majority opinion its not the only one. If the economic recovery fails to take hold we could see lower mortgage rates for awhile. Additionally, if the FED times things just right we could avoid inflation and high mortgage rates. I think this is unlikely though because the FED moving prematurely to hold off inflation could hurt the economic recovery.

What is our advice to people looking for a mortgage. My advice is to only consider a 30 year mortgage. With rates expected to increase there is no reason to get a 1 or 5 year arm. I often hear that someone is "sure" they will move in 3 years but plans often change, espically if the real estate market is slow and its difficult to sell the house.



Ki follows mortgage rates news and trends. He works as a Austin realtor. His site has a few mortgage widgets along with information on historical interest rates.

For the most part mortgage rates held steady this week after dropping sharply last week. The 30 year rate rose slightly from 5.12 to 5.14 after dropping from 5.29 the week before. The 15 year rate rose from 4.56 to 4.58. The 1 year arm held steady at 4.69 and the 5 year rate (the only mortgage product that saw much movement) rose from 4.57 to 4.67.

The general consensus is still that rates are going to eventual move up rapidly when the economy recovers. As long as the economy stay in the doldrums there is a decent chance rates will stay below 5.5. To put today's rates in historical context the all time low for the 30 year rate is 4.81 (reached in April 2009). So the 30 year rate is still very close to its all time low. Below are mortgage rates for the major mortgage products for the last few weeks and from January 22 (6 months ago).

Aug 27, 2009
30-yr 5.14 15-yr 4.58 5-yr ARM 4.67 1-yr ARM 4.69

Aug 20, 2009
30-yr 5.12 15-yr 4.56 5-yr ARM 4.57 1-yr ARM 4.69

Aug 13, 2009
30-yr 5.29 15-yr 4.68 5-yr ARM 4.75 1-yr ARM 4.72

Aug 06, 2009
30-yr 5.22 15-yr 4.63 5-yr ARM 4.73 1-yr ARM 4.78

Jul 30, 2009
30-yr 5.25 15-yr 4.69 5-yr ARM 4.75 1-yr ARM 4.80

Jan 22, 2009
30-yr 5.04 15-yr 5.12 5-yr ARM 4.80 1-yr ARM 5.24

For the most part mortgage rates have stayed low in spite of some encouraging signs with the economy. In addition to rates we can also look at mortgage payments. We took today's rates and translated them into a mortgage payment for a 200k loan. We also translated rates from August 13th (2 weeks ago) and January 22 (6 months ago) into a mortgage for a 200k loan.

Aug 27
30-yr $1090.82
15-yr $1538.17
5-yr ARM $1033.67
1-yr ARM $1036.07

Aug 13
30-yr $1109.36
15-yr $1548.44
5-yr ARM $1043.29
1-yr ARM $1039.68

Jan 22
30-yr $1078.53
15-yr $1594.11
5-yr ARM $1049.33
1-yr ARM $1103.16

As we saw with mortgage rates the mortgage payments are relatively stable from 2 weeks ago.

So what do we expect over the next few months? As long as the economy stays down barring other developments in the financial sector mortgage rates should stay low. When the economy starts to rebound though mortgage rates are generally expected to start rising.

What is our advice to people considering getting a loan? Basically it's the same as it has been for the last few months. I would avoid getting a 5 or 1 year arm if at all possible. Since rates should be higher in the future it makes sense to lock into long term rates while they are low. It's also a good idea to start the loan process before starting your home search. We are still in one of the strictest lending environments we have seen in decades. Minor credit issues that were ignored before are stopping loans from going through today. Starting the loan process early on can give a potential borrower time to clear up any issues on their credit report.


Ki has a comprehensive website focusing on Austin Tx real estate. Buyers can use it to search the Austin MLS. It also provides a graph showing updated mortgage interest rates.

Mortgage rates rose again this week. This is the third time in the last 4 weeks that mortgage rates have risen. Why are mortgage rates rising? There are numerous factors at play but generally once the economy recovers it's expected that inflation, and mortgage rates, should rise. The last month of generally positive economic news has probably helped nudge mortgage rates up. Although rates are increasing they are increasing in small steps and not large strides. Since July 16th the 30 year rate has only moved from 5.14 to 5.29. While this is interesting it's certainly not a huge move upward. What is interesting is that the current (small) upward movement in mortgage rates might be the beginning of the rise that many in the financial industry have predicted. If the economy continues to rebound this could be the beginning of mortgage rates steadily moving up to 10% or higher. This is of course dependent on the continued movement of the US economy out of the current recession. While the government has made some statements about curbing inflation it seems more concerned with making sure the US exists the recession. Of the 4 major indexes 3 moved up this week. The 30 year note rose from 5.22 to 5.29, the 15 year mortgage rose from 4.63 to 4.68 and the 5 year arm rose from 4.73 to 4.75. The 1 year arm fell from 4.78 to 4.72. What is also interesting is that when rates were at their lows a few months ago the 5 and 1 year arm was higher than the 30 year fixed rate, which is highly abnormal. Since the 30 year rate has gone up (and the arms have stayed down) the 30 year rate is now above both arms. And now the spread between the 30 year rate and the arms is back to normal. Below are the rates for the different mortgage products for the last few weeks and for January 15 (6 months ago). Aug 13, 2009 30-yr 5.29 15-yr 4.68 5-yr ARM 4.75 1-yr ARM 4.72 Aug 06, 2009 30-yr 5.22 15-yr 4.63 5-yr ARM 4.73 1-yr ARM 4.78 Jul 30, 2009 30-yr 5.25 15-yr 4.69 5-yr ARM 4.75 1-yr ARM 4.80 Jul 23, 2009 30-yr 5.20 15-yr 4.68 5-yr ARM 4.74 1-yr ARM 4.77 Jul 16, 2009 30-yr 5.14 15-yr 4.63 5-yr ARM 4.83 1-yr ARM 4.76 - - - Jan 15, 2009 30-yr 4.96 15-yr 4.65 5-yr ARM 5.25 1-yr ARM 4.89 In addition to rates it's always interesting to look at actual mortgage payments. We took today's rates and using a mortgage calculator translated them into a payment for a 200k mortgage. We also did the same thing with rates from July 30, 2009 (2 weeks ago) and January 15, 2009 (6 months ago). Aug 13 30-yr $1109.36 15-yr $1548.44 5-yr ARM $1043.29 1-yr ARM $1039.68 Jul 30 30-yr $1104.4 15-yr $1549.47 5-yr ARM $1043.29 1-yr ARM $1049.33 Jan 15 30-yr $1068.75 15-yr $1545.36 5-yr ARM $1104.4 1-yr ARM $1060.23 As we can see that while rates have risen the effect on a mortgage payment (looking at the 30 year fixed rate) is relatively small. So what is our advice to potential buyers looking for a mortgage? I would start the process of looking for a lender/mortgage early on. Financing is stricter than it has been in the past and its good to start the process early so any potential problems can be resolved (i.e. credit report problems or extra documentation that is needed). Additionally, with a possible spike in inflation looming there is more of a risk of rates rising than falling so it makes sense to lock in early.

Mortgage Rates fell this week with the 30 year rate dropping from 5.42 to 5.32. They have fallen .27 points from their recent high of 5.59 reached on June 11, 2009. Rates are still up from the all time low of 4.78 they reached on April 30, 2009. Except for the 1 year arm the other major rates dropped as well. The 15 year fixed rate dropped from 4.87 to 4.77 and the 5 year arm dropped from 4.99 to 4.88. The one year arm rose slightly from 4.93 to 4.94. Below are rates for the last few weeks.

Jul 02, 2009
30-yr 5.32 15-yr 4.77 5-yr ARM 4.88 1-yr ARM 4.94

Jun 25, 2009
30-yr 5.42 15-yr 4.87 5-yr ARM 4.99 1-yr ARM 4.93

Jun 18, 2009
30-yr 5.38 15-yr 4.89 5-yr ARM 4.97 1-yr ARM 4.95

Jun 11, 2009
30-yr 5.59 15-yr 5.06 5-yr ARM 5.17 1-yr ARM 5.04

Jun 04, 2009
30-yr 5.29 15-yr 4.79 5-yr ARM 4.85 1-yr ARM 4.81

Dec 31, 2008
30-yr 5.10 15-yr 4.83 5-yr ARM 5.57 1-yr ARM 4.85

In addition to rates we also like to analyze mortgage payments. Using our free mortgage calculator we took today's mortgage rates and translated them into a mortgage payment for a 200k loan. We did the same thing with rates from June 25, 2009 and December 31, 2008 (6 months ago).

Jul 02
30-yr $1113.09
15-yr $1557.72
5-yr ARM $1059.02
1-yr ARM $1066.32

Jun 25
30-yr $1125.55
15-yr $1568.07
5-yr ARM $1072.42
1-yr ARM $1065.1

Dec 31
30-yr $1085.89
15-yr $1563.93
5-yr ARM $1144.37
1-yr ARM $1055.38

While a potential mortgage payment is down from last week it is up $27.20 (2.5 percent) from 6 months ago.

Although rates are low it's important to note that loans are not freely available. Banks are still extremely strict on the properties and individuals that will receive loans. For instance loans for non warrantable condos (where 50% or more of the units are rented instead of owner occupied) have pretty much disappeared. The credit scores thresholds needed for a loan have increased as well. So although mortgage rates are near historic lows the lending industry continues to be the biggest negative factor dragging on the real estate market.
So what do we expect to see moving forward? There is a huge upward pressure on mortgage rates because of the amount of borrowing the US government has engaged in over the last year. So while it's hard to know what is going to happen over the next month we should see higher mortgage rates in the next year. Since rates are going to be higher this is a good reason to avoid the 1 year arm since by the time the arm expires rates could be over 8 percent.

More importantly is whether the lending industry will ease up on some of the current mortgage restrictions. While when the market finally improves it's assumed some lending restrictions will disappear but it's doubtful that lending restrictions will ease up before then.


Ki lives in Austin Texas. His site provides a mortgage widget along with a free mortgage calculator. It also has a search for Austin Tx real estate.

So for the previous two weeks we saw sizable gains in mortgage rates. Between May 28th and June 11th 30 year mortgage rates jumped from 4.91 to 5.59. This week we saw rates drop down to 5.38. Although we are still above what we were at two weeks ago it's nice to see mortgage rates moving back down. The other major mortgage products all went down as well. The 15 year dropped from 5.06 to 4.89. The 5 and 1 year arms dropped from 5.17 to 4.97 (5 year arm) and 5.04 to 4.95 (1 year arm). Below are rates for the 4 major mortgage products since May 21st.

Jun 18, 2009
30-yr 5.38 15-yr 4.89 5-yr ARM 4.97 1-yr ARM 4.95

Jun 11, 2009
30-yr 5.59 15-yr 5.06 5-yr ARM 5.17 1-yr ARM 5.04

Jun 04, 2009
30-yr 5.29 15-yr 4.79 5-yr ARM 4.85 1-yr ARM 4.81

May 28, 2009
30-yr 4.91 15-yr 4.53 5-yr ARM 4.82 1-yr ARM 4.69

May 21, 2009
30-yr 4.82 15-yr 4.50 5-yr ARM 4.79 1-yr ARM 4.82

Dec 18, 2008
30-yr 5.19 15-yr 4.92 5-yr ARM 5.60 1-yr ARM 4.94

So why are mortgage rates dropping? Basically for the last few weeks the economy has been improving and consequently we have seen mortgage rates increasing. In addition to that the government held a few bond auctions that went poorly which also provided upward pressure on mortgage rates. In the last week we have seen some signs the economy might not be recovering as cleanly and quickly as first hoped which has the effect of pushing mortgage rates down.

In addition to mortgage rates it's always nice to look at actual mortgage payments. We took today's rates and used a mortgage calculator and turned them into mortgage payments for a 200k loan. We also did the same thing with rates from June 11th (last week) and rates from December 18th (6 months ago).

Jun 18
30-yr $1120.56
15-yr $1570.15
5-yr ARM $1069.97
1-yr ARM $1067.53

Jun 11
30-yr $1146.89
15-yr $1587.84
5-yr ARM $1094.51
1-yr ARM $1078.53

Dec 18
30-yr $1096.98
15-yr $1573.26
5-yr ARM $1148.15
1-yr ARM $1066.32

As we can see payments based on 30 year mortgage rates the monthly payment on a 200k loans is about $26 dollars lower than they were last week.

So what is our advice? First of all I would still recommend 30 year mortgages. While rates on 5 and 1 year arms are lower I still expect rates to be much higher in 1 year and 5 years from now. So basically it's not worth the risk of having to refinance in a few years. Although rates are higher than they were a few weeks ago they are still near historical lows.

As always it's hard to predict what is going to happen moving forward. I would expect volatility in rates over the next month as we figure out whether the economy is one the road to recovery. Once the economy recovers we expect rates to increase rapidly. The government borrowed 50 cents of every dollar it spent this year. That mountain of debt should lead to higher interest rates.

Ki works as realtor in Austin Texas. His site is filled with information about Austin Texas real estate. It also provides information on mortgage rates along with a free mortgage calculator.

Mortgage Rates spiked up this week. The 30 year rate jumped from 4.91 to 5.29. This is the highest we have seen mortgage rates all year. Last week mortgage rates moved from 4.82 to 4.91 last week. What is interesting is that in two weeks mortgage rates have moved from near all time lows (the all time low was 4.78) to the highest point of the year. The 15 year rate moved up from 4.53 to 4.79. We did not see as much movement in the arms. The 5 year arm rose from 4.82 to 4.85 and the 1 year arm moved from 4.69 to 4.81.

Two weeks ago 30 year rates and 1 and 5 year arms were all hovering around 4.8 making the arms somewhat pointless. There is no reason to get an ARM when one can get a 30 year fixed mortgage for the same rate. With the sudden rise in the 30 year rate the arms have become relevant again. I still think the 30 year mortgage product is preferable over the arms even at current rates. Although 30 year mortgage rates have risen the expectation is that they will continue to rise for the rest of the year. Below are rates for the last few weeks as well as from 6 months ago.

Jun 04, 2009
30-yr 5.29 15-yr 4.79 5-yr ARM 4.85 1-yr ARM 4.81

May 28, 2009
30-yr 4.91 15-yr 4.53 5-yr ARM 4.82 1-yr ARM 4.69

May 21, 2009
30-yr 4.82 15-yr 4.50 5-yr ARM 4.79 1-yr ARM 4.82

May 14, 2009
30-yr 4.86 15-yr 4.52 5-yr ARM 4.82 1-yr ARM 4.71

May 07, 2009
30-yr 4.84 15-yr 4.51 5-yr ARM 4.90 1-yr ARM 4.78

Dec 04, 2008
30-yr 5.53 15-yr 5.33 5-yr ARM 5.77 1-yr ARM 5.02

In addition to mortgage rates we also like to look at mortgage payments. Using our mortgage calculator we translated today's mortgage rates into a monthly payment on a 200k loan. We did the same thing with rates from last week and rates from December 4, 2008 (6 months ago).

Jun 04
30-yr $1109.36
15-yr $1559.79
5-yr ARM $1055.38
1-yr ARM $1050.53

May 28
30-yr $1062.66
15-yr $1533.05
5-yr ARM $1051.74
1-yr ARM $1036.07

Dec 04
30-yr $1139.34
15-yr $1616.18
5-yr ARM $1169.68
1-yr ARM $1076.08

Usually there is not too much difference from week to week. That is not true this week. The payment on a 200k loan has risen 46.7 or about 4.4 percent. Payments are down 2.63 percent from what they would have been 6 months ago.

So what is our advice to people looking for a home? Unfortunately I think mortgage rates will continue to rise so it's probably best to lock in rates now. Second although arms are a viable option I would still take the 30 year rate over the 1 or 5 year arm. There are some expectations this recent rise is just the tip of the iceberg and we could see rates above 12 percent before this is over with.


Ki maintains a website about Austin Texas. His site also provides information on mortgage rates along with a free mortgage calculator.

A bill will soon become law that curtails certain practices of the credit card companies. The irony is that banks were told this month to raise more capital, then Congress decides to impede one of the banking industries more lucrative businesses. That is not to say that banks should be allowed to run amuck with interest rates and fees. However, it will most likely be the 42 percent of Americans who pay their complete balances on time every month who will end up paying for this new law.

President Obama is expected to sign into law a bill passed by Congress that overhauls the credit card industry. According to the Associated Press, the bill will do the following:

-Companies cannot charge retroactive rate increases unless the cardholder is at least 60 days behind in paying the bill.

-If a rate increase is enacted because a cardholder has fallen behind on payments, lenders must restore the lower rate after six months if the cardholder has paid monthly bills on time.

-Companies must post credit card agreements on the Internet.

-Potential cardholders under 21 to prove to the credit card companies that they can repay the money before being given a card, or have a parent or guardian promise to pay off their debt if they default.

-Cardholders cannot be charged over-the-limit fees unless they elect to be allowed to go over a limit.

-Companies must say how much time it would take and how much money in interest would be paid if only the minimum monthly payments are made.

-Gift cards must be valid for five years.

-Companies cannot charge fees when cardholders pay the bill by phone or on the Internet.

-Companies cannot eliminate the interest-free period for cardholders who move from paying the full balance monthly to carrying a balance.

-Companies must give cardholders a reasonable time to pay the bill before it is considered late.

-Companies must give cardholders 45 days notice before raising interest rates on new purchases, even if the customer is late or delinquent in paying the account.

"Those who manage their credit well will in some degree subsidize those that have credit problems," Edward L. Yingling, CEO of the American Bankers Association, told the New York Times. In other words, banks will recoup losses from higher interest rates and late fees by reviving annual fees, putting restrictions on reward programs and eliminating the grace period for charging interest on purchases.

It is the fine print on the credit card bill that has gotten many Americans into trouble with their credit. Research shows that the majority of credit card companies stipulate that rates can increase to any amount for any period of time if the cardholder is deemed a credit risk at any point.

"This is America and we don't begrudge a company's success when that success is based on honest dealings with consumers," President Obama said recently. "We need reform to restore some sense of balance." In this time of job loss and financial uncertainty, it is the credit card balances that may trump finding a true balance of fairness in the credit card business.


Ki graduated from UT with a CS degree. Now he works with buyers interested in Austin real estate. His website allows buyers to search Austin MLS listings. It also provides information on mortgage interest rates.

30 Year Mortgage Rates dropped from 5.15 to 5.03. With the exception of the weeks of January 8th, 2009 and January 15th 2009 this is the lowest rates have been in over 40 years. The other 3 major mortgage products dropped as well with 15 year arms moving down from 4.72 to 4.64, 5 year arms going from 5.08 to 4.99 and 1 year arms moving from 4.86 to 4.80. Although the 5 year arm has moved below the 30 year fixed for the last few weeks there is still no real reason to get a 5 year arm at 4.99 when you can lock in for 30 years at 5.03 at historically low rates. Below are mortgage rates for the four major products for the last few weeks.

Mar 12, 2009
30-yr 5.03 15-yr 4.64 5-yr ARM 4.99 1-yr ARM 4.80

Mar 05, 2009
30-yr 5.15 15-yr 4.72 5-yr ARM 5.08 1-yr ARM 4.86

Feb 26, 2009
30-yr 5.07 15-yr 4.68 5-yr ARM 5.06 1-yr ARM 4.81

Feb 19, 2009
30-yr 5.04 15-yr 4.68 5-yr ARM 5.04 1-yr ARM 4.80

Feb 12, 2009
30-yr 5.16 15-yr 4.81 5-yr ARM 5.23 1-yr ARM 4.94

So we also wanted to look at mortgage payments. We took today's rates and translated them into the payment on a 200k loan. We also translated the rates from January 15th, which was the lowest rates we have seen, and from October 16th which is the highest rates we have seen in the last few months.

Mar 12
30-yr 1077.31
15-yr 1544.33
5-yr ARM 1072.42
1-yr ARM 1049.33

Jan 15
30-yr $1068.75
15-yr $1545.36
5-yr ARM $1104.4
1-yr ARM $1060.23

Oct 16
30-yr $1258.87
15-yr $1702.87
5-yr ARM $1217.16
1-yr ARM $1093.28

Looking above its obvious anyway getting a loan today didn't lose out all that much by not catching rates at their absolute lows on January 15th. Payments for a 200k 30 year mortgage today are less than $10 dollar more a month. But their are substantial savings compared to what we saw a few months ago. Payments would be $181.56 less today compared to getting a 200k loan on October 16th.

That relates to our next point of where mortgage rates are going. I can't say for certain what they are going to do over the next 2 months. I would guess as long as the economy stays weak they are not going to move around too much. Mostly likely they will hover between 4.5 and 5.5. Basically they can't fall too much considering they are already abnormally low. And as long as the economy stays down I don't see them rising too much.

But once the economy recovers most people expect that rates will rise. Some have speculated that rates could jump up to 12-15 percent. Basically so much money has been poured into the economy during the recession to stop things from getting worse. Normally that would cause inflation. But the weak economy has kept inflation in check. When the economy finally does recover the billions poured into the financial system by the government will lead to high inflation which will in turn lead to high mortgage rates.


Ki writes updates on mortgage rates. His site has information on Austin Tx real estate along with a tool that graphs mortgage interest rates.

Mortgage rates held even this week. For a recent history of rates we saw rates reach an all time low of 4.96 on January 15th. After that rates jumped up to 5.25 on February 5th. Since then rates have come down. 30 year rates are now at 5.07 so just a little above their previous lows. We have rates for the last 5 weeks listed below.

Feb 26, 2009
30-yr 5.07 15-yr 4.68 5-yr ARM 5.06 1-yr ARM 4.81

Feb 19, 2009
30-yr 5.04 15-yr 4.68 5-yr ARM 5.04 1-yr ARM 4.80

Feb 12, 2009
30-yr 5.16 15-yr 4.81 5-yr ARM 5.23 1-yr ARM 4.94

Feb 05, 2009
30-yr 5.25 15-yr 4.92 5-yr ARM 5.26 1-yr ARM 4.92

Jan 29, 2009
30-yr 5.10 15-yr 4.80 5-yr ARM 5.27 1-yr ARM 4.90


This is the first time we have seen the 5 year ARM fall below the 30 year rate. At this point there is no real reason to get the 5 year ARM or the 1 year ARM since they are not that much lower than the 30 year rate to justify the risk of being stuck with a balloon payment in 1 or 5 years when rates are probably going to be much higher than what we see today. The difference between the 30 year rate and the 15 year rate has grown which makes the 15 year rate more appealing. On January 29th the different was .3 points (5.10 for the 30 year and 4.80 for the 15 year rate). Today the difference is .39 (5.07 for the 30 year and 4.68 for the 15 year rate).

So the other big news with the mortgage industry is that banks are now allowing investors to have 10 loans. For a long time most banks limited investors to 4 loans. This drastically slowed down the investment market. Increasing the limit to 10 will probably allow the multifamily market to start moving a little faster as it has been one of the slowest segments of the market.

In addition, to rates we wanted to look at mortgage payments. We used our mortgage calculator to determine the monthly payments based on today's rates. We did the same thing with rates from February 19th and January 29th.

Feb 26
30-yr 1082.21
15-yr 1548.44
5-yr ARM 1080.98
1-yr ARM 1050.53

Jan 29
30-yr 1085.89
15-yr 1560.82
5-yr ARM 1106.88
1-yr ARM 1061.45

October 30th
30-yr 1258.87
15-yr 1708.31
5-yr ARM 1245.77
1-yr ARM 1120.56


All in all mortgage payments for the last month have been pretty steady. Back in October mortgage rates and payments where much higher.

Moving forward I expect mortgage rates to move up over the next two years. The main question is how long they will stay at their current levels.

Ki lives and works in Austin Texas. His site has a free search of the Austin MLS. He also has a mortgage interest rates widget on his website as well as a free mortgage calculator widget.

Mortgage rates fell for the second week in a row. 30 year rates fell to a 40 year low to start the year dropping down to 4.96 on January 15th. After that rates rose up to 5.25. Now rates have fallen back to almost reach their previous lows. In fact this is the lowest rates have been in 40 year with the exception of the first two weeks of 2009. Below are rates for the last few weeks.

Feb 19, 2009
30-yr 5.04 15-yr 4.68 5-yr ARM 5.04 1-yr ARM 4.80

Feb 12, 2009
30-yr 5.16 15-yr 4.81 5-yr ARM 5.23 1-yr ARM 4.94

Feb 05, 2009
30-yr 5.25 15-yr 4.92 5-yr ARM 5.26 1-yr ARM 4.92

Jan 29, 2009
30-yr 5.10 15-yr 4.80 5-yr ARM 5.27 1-yr ARM 4.90

Jan 22, 2009
30-yr 5.12 15-yr 4.80 5-yr ARM 5.24 1-yr ARM 4.92

The 5 year Arm fell quite a bit this week and is now equal to the 30 year rate (This is the first time since November 20, 2008 that the 5 year arm is not above the 30 year arm). But it's still a pointless rate because why get a 5 year arm when you could get the same rate on a 30 year fixed mortgage. The same can be said of the 1 year arm since it does not offer that much savings over the 30 year rate.

The 15 year rate fell this week and is now also sitting at the lowest point in 40 years with the exception of the first two weeks of 2009. I always like to translate mortgage rates into actual mortgage payments. Below are mortgage payments for a 200k loan based on today's rates and rates from a week and a month ago.

Feb 19
30-yr 1078.53
15-yr 1548.44
5-yr ARM 1078.53
1-yr ARM 1049.33

Feb 12
30-yr 1093.28
15-yr 1561.86
5-yr ARM 1101.93
1-yr ARM 1066.32

Jan 22
30-yr 1088.35
15-yr 1560.82
5-yr ARM 1103.16
1-yr ARM 1063.88

Messing around with our mortgage calculator I found something kind of interesting that illustrates the importance of mortgage rates on payments. If you got a 200k loan with a 30 year mortgage in 1995 the rate would have been around 9 percent and the mortgage payment would have been around $1625. Assuming you never refinanced you would pay off the loan in 2025.

Now if you got a 200k mortgage today you could get a 15 year mortgage with a 4.68 percent rate and pay only $1548.44. In addition, you would actually pay off the mortgage a year earlier in 2024.

So what is my advice in the current market? First I would avoid the 5 and 1 year arm. The rates are relatively high and it makes more sense to lock in with a long term rate when rates are at historic lows. Second I would look into getting a mortgage before spending too much time looking for a house. Basically although rates are low lenders are still pretty picky these days about finances. In addition, if there is anything weird with your credit score finding out early will allow you to have time to fix any outstanding issues.

So as far as the mortgage market what do we expect to happen over the next few weeks? Basically with the stock market hitting 6 year lows recently and hovering near 12 year lows and the bailout getting passed it seems that the market is going to be pretty volatile over the next few weeks. So I could see rates going up or down by possibly as much as half a point. If you have found a house you like it might make sense to lock in now but watch rates and try to relock if they fall significantly over the next week or two.

Ki maintains a website with information about Austin Tx real estate. It also has a free mortgage calculator along with updated graphs on mortgage interest rates.

Mortgage rates came down a little this week. We are still not back down to the levels we saw two weeks ago. 30 year rates fell from 5.25 to 5.16. This is a little higher than the 5.10 we saw two weeks ago and .2 points higher than the 4.96 we saw 4 weeks ago. But to put this all in perspective if we neglect the last month 5.16 is still one of the lowest rates we have seen in over 40 years.

One point of confusion is that when looking at average rates people relate it to a rate a friend or colleague got a few weeks ago. For instance if you had a friend that got a rate of 4.3 last week and see rates are at 5.16 you might think you really missed the boat. But 4.3 is lower than anything that has been officially published. Often these rates are down to paying more points to drive down the interest rate or they might be due to a special deal for instance a University offering professors a special rate. All this is to say if you have a friend that got a rate below 4.5 a few weeks ago don't fret you should be able to a similar rate today that is only slightly higher. Below are rates for the last few weeks. The rates on January 15th mark the lowest rates we have seen in 40 years and easily the lowest rates of the year.

Feb 12, 2009
30-yr 5.16 15-yr 4.81 5-yr ARM 5.23 1-yr ARM 4.94

Feb 05, 2009
30-yr 5.25 15-yr 4.92 5-yr ARM 5.26 1-yr ARM 4.92

Jan 29, 2009
30-yr 5.10 15-yr 4.80 5-yr ARM 5.27 1-yr ARM 4.90

Jan 22, 2009
30-yr 5.12 15-yr 4.80 5-yr ARM 5.24 1-yr ARM 4.92

Jan 15, 2009
30-yr 4.96 15-yr 4.65 5-yr ARM 5.25 1-yr ARM 4.89

Besides the drop in the 30 year rate we also saw a similar drop with the 15 year fixed rate. Both the 5 year arm and the 1 arm stayed mostly steady. Looking at rates is interesting but we like to translate it into mortgage payments. We took today's rates and translated them into a mortgage payment on a 200k loan. We did the same thing with rates from a week ago. We also looked at what the mortgage payment would be based on rates from January 15th (the lowest rates so far).

Feb 12
30-yr 1093.28
15-yr 1561.86
5-yr ARM 1101.93
1-yr ARM 1066.32

Feb 05
30-yr 1104.4
15-yr 1573.26
5-yr ARM 1105.64
1-yr ARM 1063.88

Jan 15
30-yr 1068.75
15-yr 1545.36
5-yr ARM 1104.4
1-yr ARM 1060.23

Looking at the 30 year rate we notice that while today's payment would be higher than what one would have paid based on January 15th rates its not that much higher. If we look back a few months ago to October 30th when rates were at 6.46 the potential payment on a 200k mortgage would be $1258.87. All this is to say that rates have come up recently but all in all they are still low to what we have seen over the last several years.


Ki writes regularly about mortgage rates and the mortgage industry. His site has a search for homes in the Austin MLS along with mortgage calculator widget.

After falling for the last 2 months 30 year mortgage rates jumped up this week. The 30 year mortgage went from 5.10 to 5.25. This is the highest we have seen December 11, 2008. The 15 year mortgage moved up as well from 4.80 to 4.92. Below are rates for the last few weeks.

Feb 05, 2008
30-yr 5.25 15-yr 4.92 5-yr ARM 5.26 1-yr ARM 4.92

Jan 29, 2008
30-yr 5.10 15-yr 4.80 5-yr ARM 5.27 1-yr ARM 4.90

Jan 22, 2008
30-yr 5.12 15-yr 4.80 5-yr ARM 5.24 1-yr ARM 4.92

Jan 15, 2008
30-yr 4.96 15-yr 4.65 5-yr ARM 5.25 1-yr ARM 4.89

Jan 08, 2008
30-yr 5.01 15-yr 4.62 5-yr ARM 5.49 1-yr ARM 4.95

The 5 year arm and the 1 year arm for the most part held steady. The 5 year arm still remains a pointless mortgage option since it is above the 30 year rate. The 1 year rate is moving back to almost being a viable option. While the difference between the 1 year arm and the 30 year fixed is still not great enough to see many people choosing the 1 year arm, if the 30 year rate rises more next week I could see the 1 year arm starting to see more activity. In addition to looking at rates we wanted to also look at actual mortgage payments. We took today's rates and determined what the mortgage payment would be on a 200k mortgage. We also did the same thing with rates from a week ago and rates from January 15th when rates hit their lowest point so far.

Feb 05
30-yr 1104.4
15-yr 1573.26
5-yr ARM 1105.64
1-yr ARM 1063.88

Jan 29
30-yr 1085.89
15-yr 1560.82
5-yr ARM 1106.88
1-yr ARM 1061.45

Jan 15
30-yr 1068.75
15-yr 1545.36
5-yr ARM 1104.4
1-yr ARM 1060.23

Compared to January 15th ones potential mortgage payment has risen about 3.2 percent. This is a decent rise for this short of a period of time.

So if you were planning on purchasing and didn't lock in 3 weeks ago did you miss the boat? I would say yes and no. The rates 3 weeks ago were at 30 year lows and they have risen quite a bit since then. But looking over the last several decades today's rates are still very very low.

It's hard to know what is going to happen moving forward. Without direct government involvement I don't see rates falling back to what we saw a few weeks ago. So that begs the question, are we ever going to see the proposed 4.5 government sponsored loan become a reality? The difficulty of passing the recent economic stimulus package makes it look like passing additional programs might be tough as well. And if it does pass there are probably going to be some strings attached. Currently I would peg the chance of it passing at around 50%. But if the housing market weakens this month I would think the prospects of a 4.5% government mortgage would rise substantially.


Ki writes regularly about mortgage rates. His site has free mortgage calculator along with general information about Austin Tx real estate.

Mortgage rates for the most part held steady this week. The 30 year rate dropped from 5.12 to 5.10. Rates are still at historic lows. The rates for the last month have all been below anything we have seen in the last 40 years since we started tracking weekly mortgage rates. The 15 year rate held steady at 4.8. The 5 year arm rose from 5.24 to 5.27 and the 1 year arm dropped from 4.92 to 4.90. What the numbers below don't reflect is that rates mid week were a little higher midweek. But by the end of the week they had fallen. Below are rates for the last few weeks.

Jan 29, 2008
30-yr 5.10 15-yr 4.80 5-yr ARM 5.27 1-yr ARM 4.90

Jan 22, 2008
30-yr 5.12 15-yr 4.80 5-yr ARM 5.24 1-yr ARM 4.92

Jan 15, 2008
30-yr 4.96 15-yr 4.65 5-yr ARM 5.25 1-yr ARM 4.89

Jan 08, 2008
30-yr 5.01 15-yr 4.62 5-yr ARM 5.49 1-yr ARM 4.95

Dec 31, 2008
30-yr 5.10 15-yr 4.83 5-yr ARM 5.57 1-yr ARM 4.85

If you are planning on putting 20% down the 5 year arm and the 1 year arm are pretty pointless. The 5 year arm is above the 30 year fixed rate. The 1 year arm is below the 30 year fixed but doesn't really offer enough savings to be worth the tradeoff of forgoing locking in at historic lows. We have seen a trend recently where on some properties banks are allowing borrowers to get 10 percent down for a 5 or 1 year arm but are requiring 20 percent for a 30 year loan. I am not sure why banks are favoring arm's since that is what got them into this mess. Ok so in addition to looking at rates lets look at mortgage payments. We looked at a mortgage payment based on today's rates for a 200k loan. We also did the same thing looking at rates from 2 weeks ago (which was all time low point for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage). We also looked at rates from 2 months ago.

Jan 29
30-yr 1085.89
15-yr 1560.82
5-yr ARM 1106.88
1-yr ARM 1061.45

Jan 15
30-yr 1068.75
15-yr 1545.36
5-yr ARM 1104.4
1-yr ARM 1060.23

November 20th
30-yr $1204.24
15-yr $1658.67
5-yr ARM $1182.43
1-yr ARM $1109.36

As we can see although a mortgage payment would have been a little less 2 weeks ago all in all rates and mortgage payments have not changed that much. But we are still seeing substantial savings from 2 months ago.

So what is our advice. It should be pretty obvious but with rates at all time lows the time to refinance is now. In addition, if you are currently thinking of getting a mortgage I would lock in an interest rate sooner rather than later.

In general there is still more of a risk of rates going up over the next month than down. Rates simply don't have that much room to fall. So most likely we should see rates hold even or rise over the next month. In addition, there is a risk that rates could rise rapidly over the next 6 months if the economy improves.

Ki writes regularly about mortgage rates. His site provides a search of the Austin MLS along with a free mortgage calculator

This is getting just ridiculous. This is now the 12th week in a row where mortgage rates have fallen. Ok one small caveat to that this is the 12th week where the 30 year mortgage rate has fallen. But in the current environment the 30 year mortgage rate is almost the only mortgage product that matters. The 30 year rate fell this week from 5.01 to 4.96. The 5 year arm fell (from 5.49 to 5.25) and the 1 year arm declined slightly (from 4.95 to 4.89). But frankly who cares, as long as these rates stay above the 30 year mortgage (i.e. the 5 year arm) or just slightly below the 30 year mortgage (the 1 year arm) there is no real reason to consider these mortgage products. Rates for a 15 year mortgage rose slightly from 4.62 to 4.65. Below are rates for the last few weeks.

Jan 15, 2008
30-yr 4.96 15-yr 4.65 5-yr ARM 5.25 1-yr ARM 4.89

Jan 08, 2008
30-yr 5.01 15-yr 4.62 5-yr ARM 5.49 1-yr ARM 4.95

Dec 31, 2008
30-yr 5.10 15-yr 4.83 5-yr ARM 5.57 1-yr ARM 4.85

Dec 24, 2008
30-yr 5.14 15-yr 4.91 5-yr ARM 5.49 1-yr ARM 4.95

Dec 18, 2008
30-yr 5.19 15-yr 4.92 5-yr ARM 5.60 1-yr ARM 4.94

So I wanted to look at actual mortgage payments in addition to mortgage rates. When we talk of rates dropping sometimes its interesting to translate those rate drops into real dollars. We translated today's rates into a mortgage payment for a 200k loan. We also looked at rates from two weeks ago and rates from October 30th (this was the date when rates first started to fall).

Jan 15
30-yr $1068.75
15-yr $1545.36
5-yr ARM $1104.4
1-yr ARM $1060.23

Dec 31
30-yr $1085.89
15-yr $1563.93
5-yr ARM $1144.37
1-yr ARM $1055.38

Oct 30th
30-yr $1258.87
15-yr $1708.31
5-yr ARM $1245.77
1-yr ARM $1120.56

So if we look at what mortgage payments would be today compared to October 30th is fairly apparent that rates and correspondingly mortgage payments have plummeted. For a 30 year mortgage on a 200k loan the payment has come down from $1258.87 to $1068.75. That is a drop of $190.12 or 15.1%. That is a pretty huge drop in a few months.

So what is going to happen moving forward. Rates can obviously not continue to go down week after week. At this point I think there is a bigger risk of rates going up than going down. I would be surprised if rates continue to go down for 3 or 4 more weeks. In the next few months I would expect rates to continue to hover around 5 percent plus or minus half a point. Basically the government is going to do whatever possible to keep rates low. In the next two or three years its expected interest rates will rise dramatically. All the money that has been pushed into the economy will at some point increase inflation and this will in turn push up mortgage rates.


Ki writes regularly about mortgage rates and the mortgage industry. His site has a search of the Austin MLS along with a mortgage calculator widget

So rates fell slightly this week. This marks the 10th week in a row rates have fallen. This is also the 3rd week where the the 30 year mortgage rate (the most popular mortgage product) has hit new 30 year lows. The 30 year rate fell from 5.14 to 5.10. The 5 year arm rose from 5.49 to 5.57. As long as the 5 year rate is higher than the 30 year arm it doesnt really matter if it rises or falls because no one is using it. The 1 year arm fell from 4.95 to 4.85 and the 15 year arm fell from 4.91 to 4.83. Even though these rates fell more than the 30 year rate these mortgage rates are still pretty pointless. As long as the 30 year rate is this low it really makes more sense to lock into this rate for the long term.


Dec 31, 2008
30-yr 5.10 15-yr 4.83 5-yr ARM 5.57 1-yr ARM 4.85

Dec 24, 2008
30-yr 5.14 15-yr 4.91 5-yr ARM 5.49 1-yr ARM 4.95

Dec 18, 2008
30-yr 5.19 15-yr 4.92 5-yr ARM 5.60 1-yr ARM 4.94

Dec 11, 2008
30-yr 5.47 15-yr 5.20 5-yr ARM 5.82 1-yr ARM 5.09

Dec 04, 2008
30-yr 5.53 15-yr 5.33 5-yr ARM 5.77 1-yr ARM 5.02

So lets take rates and translate them into a mortgage payment. We ran the current rates on a 200k mortgage. Then we looked at rates from last week and from a October 30th when rates first started their historic fall.

Dec 31
30-yr 1085.89
15-yr 1563.93
5-yr ARM 1144.37
1-yr ARM 1055.38

Dec 24
30-yr 1090.82
15-yr 1572.22
5-yr ARM 1134.32
1-yr ARM 1067.53

October 30th
30-yr $1258.87
15-yr $1708.31
5-yr ARM $1245.77
1-yr ARM $1120.56

So the savings from last week are not that impressive. But compared to October 30th we are seeing much lower payments. Here are the savings for the different rates compared to October 30th.

Rate Dollar Amount Saved
30 yr $172.98
15-yr $144.38
5-yr ARM $101.4
1-yr ARM $65.18

Rate Percent Drop in Mortgage Payment
30 yr 13.74%
15-yr 8.45%
5-yr ARM 8.14%
1-yr ARM 5.82%

The most interesting number to me is 13.74% the percent drop for the 30 year rate in the last 2 months. That is pretty significant.

So what is going to happen moving forward. I actually think rates are headed higher over the next two years. They might decrease a little more over the next few months. The government has a pending plan to offer mortgage rates at 4.5 percent for home buyers. But the way things are headed it would be interesting if mortgage rates fell below 4.5 percent making the governments plan somewhat pointless.

But once the economy recovers most signs point toward massive inflation. Why? The Fed has been pouring billions into the economy to stop the economy from falling apart further. This would usually cause inflation except for the fact that the economy is so sluggish. But once the economy recovers the massive amounts of cash the government has pushed into the economy should cause high levels of inflation. This will most likely lead to double digit interest rates. Some thing rates will get up to 15%. So our currently historically low interest rates might be followed by historically high interest rates.


Ki writes regularly about mortgage rates. His site has a search of the Austin MLS along with a free mortgage calculator.

Mortgage Rates fell again this week. This is the ninth week in a row were rates have fallen. Last week mortgage rates were already at 50 year lows. The 30 Year mortgage rate fell from 5.19 to 5.14. This is not a huge fall. The significant point this week is that they basically stayed down at historically low levels. Here are the lowest points mortgage rates have seen for the last 30 years. 1) December 2008 5.14 2) June 2003 5.23 3) March 2004 5.45 4) May 2003 5.48 Although rates are lower than they were in 2003 and 2004 the mortgage market today is trickier. In 2003 and 2004 virtually anyone could get a decent rate. Today banks are looking closely at credit scores. In addition banks have almost no interest in giving out loans to people wanting to purchase multifamily properties. Below are rates for the last few weeks. December 24, 2008 30-yr 5.14 15-yr 4.91 5-yr ARM 5.49 1-yr ARM 4.95 December 18, 2008 30-yr 5.19 15-yr 4.92 5-yr ARM 5.60 1-yr ARM 4.94 December 11, 2008 30-yr 5.47 15-yr 5.20 5-yr ARM 5.82 1-yr ARM 5.09 December 4, 2008 30-yr 5.53 15-yr 5.33 5-yr ARM 5.77 1-yr ARM 5.02 November 26, 2008 30-yr 5.97 15-yr 5.74 5-yr ARM 5.86 1-yr ARM 5.18 While the 30 year rate and the 15 year rates have fallen we have not seen nearly as much movement in the 5 and 1 year ARM. So in addition to mortgage rates it's interesting to look at what the actual payments would be on a loan. Using our free mortgage calculator we ran the numbers on today's rates for a 200k loan. We also ran the numbers for last weeks rates and rates from October 30th. The reason we choose October 30th was because that was when we began the 9 weeks of falling rates. December 24th 30-yr $1090.82 15-yr $1572.22 5-yr ARM $1134.32 1-yr ARM $1067.53 December 18th 30-yr $1096.98 15-yr $1573.26 5-yr ARM $1148.15 1-yr ARM $1066.32 October 30th 30-yr $1258.87 15-yr $1708.31 5-yr ARM $1245.77 1-yr ARM $1120.56 Compared to last week the payment for a 30 year loan only fell a few dollars going from 1096.98 to 1090.98. On the other hand if we look back to October 30th the payment has fallen from $1258.87 to $1090.82. This is a drop of about 13.4 percent. If we also consider that prices in most areas have fallen over the same period of time this is pretty substantial savings. There is still no reason to look at Arms. The 5 year ARM still has rates above the 30 year mortgage which makes this product basically pointless. The 1 Year Arm is lower than the 30 Year rate but it's basically pointless for 2 reasons. First the difference is pretty small this week it was only .19 points. Second since 30 year rates are historical lows the small savings hardly seem worth losing the chance to lock in at historical lows. So what is going to happen with rates moving forward? I think rates are going to hold even or fall a little more over the next month. After that expectations are that rates are going to increase slightly. Once the economy recovers the massive amounts of money the Fed have pushed into the economy should lead to inflation which could push mortgage rates up to 12 or 13 percent. All that is to say over the next few months we might see the lowest rates we are going to see for the next few decades.