The general arguments concerning the bailout have gone something along the lines of

"The taxpayers should not have to foot a 700 billion dollar bill to bail out Wall Street"

"But if taxpayers do not bail out Wall Street the economy will fall apart and those same taxpayers will be hurt"

If we could be sure the bailout would work the second argument has some merit. While the bailout will certainly help the banks, the problem is we have almost no guarantee the bailout will help the real estate market and the general economy.

First let's look at some recent history of how the Fed has tried to help the troubled real estate market. The Fed usually attempts to lower mortgage interest rates to help the real estate market. By lower mortgage rates houses become more attractive. In addition, with lower mortgage rates home buyers can buy more expensive houses with the same monthly payment. Therefore lower rates can help stop falling prices. So it was not surprising in early 2008 the Fed cut the Fed rate. In normal markets lowering the Fed rate helps banks and causes them to lower mortgage interest rates. And after the fed cuts mortgage rates for a period of time dropped to 5.50. If they had stayed down there we might have averted some of the problems with the current housing crisis. But instead a few weeks later rates had jumped backed up to 6.2. Basically banks said thanks for the lower fed rates but we are not going to alter our rates. In fact, over the next few months mortgage rates rose all the way to 6.6. The next big move was acquiring Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. This was one of the largest government takeovers in US history. The move was risky because the government was providing insurance for trillions in loans. And it initially had a positive effect on the housing market. But a few weeks later AIG ran into financial problems. It was almost as if the government takeover of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae never happened.

So the previous moves the federal government has made to stop the financial crisis have not worked. Should the 700 billion dollar bailout be different? It could certainly help the markets. But it might not. Lets look at why.

One of the benefits of the 700 billion dollar bailout has nothing to do with banks. It has more to do with perception on Main Street. The hope is that the bailout will restore confidence in the real estate market on Main Street.

In politics people often talk about news cycles covering up the last news cycle. Basically the last piece of news stays in people's minds until the next piece of news comes along. The Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac news cycle (and the billions the government will spend on it) only lasted until the next piece of news, which was about a week. While the 700 billion dollar bailout should restore some confidence into the real estate market, that confidence might only last until the next piece of news. And with things happening so quickly that news cycle might not last very long and given the current market the next piece of new is likely to be negative.

The other benefit of the 700 billion dollar bailout is that the government is hoping to influence banks to start lending again. The idea is that by taking billions in toxic loans off the books for banks they will start lending again. The problem is that their is no guarantee this will happen. In fact when the fed lowered rates banks said thanks but decided that prospects for the housing market looked negative and continued to add restrictions to lending. In a similar fashion banks could say thanks for the 700 billion but we continue to see negative prospects in the housing market and therefore we will continue to have strict lending practices. But thanks for the 700 billion taxpayers.

Escapeso real estate is a small brokerage in Austin Texas. Their realtors works with clients looking for Austin real estate. Their site offers a free search of the Austin MLS along with current mortgage interest rates.

Mortgage Interest Rates Mortgage Rates Widget

If you have been hoping interest rates would drop your prayers have been answered. Interest rates plummeted over half a point last week falling from 6.35 to 5.78. The last time mortgage interest rates fell this fast this quickly was the beginning of 1995 when rates fell from 8.32 to 7.57. Rates have basically fallen following the government takeover of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Below are the rates for the major mortgage products for the last few weeks.

September 18, 2008
30-yr 5.78 15-yr 5.35 5-yr ARM 5.67 1-yr ARM 5.03

September 11, 2008
30-yr 5.93 15-yr 5.54 5-yr ARM 5.87 1-yr ARM 5.21

September 4, 2008
30-yr 6.35 15-yr 5.90 5-yr ARM 5.97 1-yr ARM 5.15

30 Year mortgage rates fell less this week (.15 points) compared to last week (.42 points). 15 year and 5 year arms both fell about .2 points this week. 1 Year arms which was the only major product to not fall last week fell .18 points this week. The other interesting point is that because interest rates were falling before the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac takeover (based on rumors of the takeover) rates have fallen an incredible amount (.74 points for 30 year rates) over the last month and a half.

Ok so let's see what these drops mean as far as a mortgage payment. Using our mortgage calculator widget lets look at a payment based on a 200k loan. We will run the numbers based on today's mortgage rates and rates on September 11, September 4th and July 24th.

September 18th
30-yr $1170.96
15-yr $1618.29
5-yr ARM $1157
1-yr ARM $1077.31


September 11th
30-yr $1190.11
15-yr $1638.41
5-yr ARM $1182.43
1-yr ARM $1099.45

September 4th
30-yr $1244.47
15-yr $1676.92
5-yr ARM $1195.24
1-yr ARM $1092.05

July 24th
30-yr $1281.28
15-yr $1707.22
5-yr ARM $1219.75
1-yr ARM $1134.32

So the obvious thing to see here is that the now lower interest rates have had a large effect on mortgage payments. A mortgage with a 30 year interest rate dropped from 1281.28 to 1170.96 (9.1 percent) in the last month and a half. So that brings up the point that it's probably a good point to start looking at refinancing your mortgage even if you received a mortgage somewhat recently.

So what is in store for the market in the next few weeks? It's hard to tell but the market is very volatile. One day the stock market drops 400 points because Lehman Brothers goes bankrupt. Then the government proposes to takeover the bad mortgage debt and the market rises. Because of this volatility if you are thinking of refinancing I might lock in to an interest rate now because its hard to know what rates are going to be like in a few weeks.

Ki is a realtor down in Austin Texas. His website provides a search of the Austin MLS along with information on Austin Commercial Real Estate.

Mortgage interest rates moved down again this week. This marks the fifth week in a row where 30 Year mortgage rates have either fallen or held steady. This is of course good news for people looking to buy a house. This is also good news for the real estate market. A few weeks ago a weakened real estate market was dealing with additional burden of some of the highest mortgage rates we have seen in a year [mortgage rates graph]. Below are the mortgage rates for the major mortgage products for the last few months. As we can see while the 30 Year rate has fallen both the 5 year and the 1 year arm have for the most part held steady. This brings the difference between the 30 Year rate and the 5 year and 1 year arm back to roughly normal levels. The 15 year mortgage rate has been falling as well over the last month but not as much as the 30 year rate.

August 28,2008
30-yr 6.40 15-yr 5.93 5-yr ARM 6.03 1-yr ARM 5.33

August 21,2008
30-yr 6.47 15-yr 6.00 5-yr ARM 5.99 1-yr ARM 5.29

August 14,2008
30-yr 6.52 15-yr 6.07 5-yr ARM 6.02 1-yr ARM 5.18

August 7,2008
30-yr 6.52 15-yr 6.10 5-yr ARM 6.05 1-yr ARM 5.22

July 31,2008
30-yr 6.52 15-yr 6.07 5-yr ARM 6.07 1-yr ARM 5.27

While 30 mortgage rates have fallen they are still above what we saw a few months ago when mortgage rates where hovering around 6.0. So while mortgage rates are relatively high I still think this is a pretty good sign. Why? Basically mortgage rates have fallen in spite of the fact that recently the FED has decided not to lower rates. Does this mean that banks are feeling better about handing out mortgages? I would not go that far. If anything I would think that rates rose suddenly a month ago and simply overshot. And now they are simply reacting to that original large increase by moving down a bit. So let's look at what the mortgage rates mean for an actual mortgage. Using our mortgage calculator let's run through the numbers based on a 200k mortgage. We looked at what a mortgage would be this week plus a week and a month ago.

August 28th
30-yr $1251.01
15-yr $1680.15
5-yr ARM $1202.96
1-yr ARM $1114.33

August 21st
30-yr $1260.19
15-yr $1687.71
5-yr ARM $1197.81
1-yr ARM $1109.36

July 24th
30-yr $1281.28
15-yr $1707.22
5-yr ARM $1219.75
1-yr ARM $1134.32
So what is going to happen over the next few months? It's always hard to predict but here is my guess. I think rates will hold steady or fall a bit over the next two months. I am expecting rates to come down a bit after the election. Of course a lot could happen between now and then. If the market runs into more problems I would expect rates to increase. Why? The Fed has their hands tied behind the back they cannot lower the Fed rate too many more times.

Escapeso Austin Real Estate provides information on mortgage rates. They have a graph of historical mortgage rates along with a free mortgage calculator and a mortgage interest rates widget.

Mortgage Interest Rates Mortgage Rates Widget

Mortgage interest rates moved down slightly this week. This was a good sign since it was not preceded by any rate cuts from the FED. The 30 year mortgage rate fell from 6.52 to 6.47 and the 15 year mortgage rate fell from 6.07 to 6.00. For arms the 5 year rate fell from 6.02 to 5.99. The 1 year arm was the only one of the 4 rates to increase going from 5.18 to 5.29. If anything the mortgage rates are not more in align with each other. Over the past few weeks the difference between the 1 year arm and the other rates has seemed larger than normal.

To put this weeks changes in context of what has happened over this summer mortgage rates are still quite a bit higher than earlier. For the 30 Year mortgage on May 22 rates fell to 5.98. Then by July 24 rates raised to 6.63. So rates have fallen since then but we are still quite a bit higher than the rates we saw in May. Below are mortgage rates for the last few weeks.

August 21,2008
30-yr 6.47 15-yr 6.00 5-yr ARM 5.99 1-yr ARM 5.29

August 14,2008
30-yr 6.52 15-yr 6.07 5-yr ARM 6.02 1-yr ARM 5.18

August 7,2008
30-yr 6.52 15-yr 6.1 5-yr ARM 6.05 1-yr ARM 5.22

July 31,2008
30-yr 6.52 15-yr 6.07 5-yr ARM 6.07 1-yr ARM 5.27

July 24,2008
30-yr 6.63 15-yr 6.18 5-yr ARM 6.16 1-yr ARM 5.49

So let's see what these mortgage rates would mean for an actual mortgage payment. We ran today's mortgage rates through our free mortgage calculator for a 200k loan. We also looked at what the payments would have been on the same mortgage a week and a month ago.

August 21st
30-yr $1260.19
15-yr $1687.71
5-yr ARM $1197.81
1-yr ARM $1109.36

August 14th
30-yr $1266.76
15-yr $1695.28
5-yr ARM $1201.67
1-yr ARM $1095.75

July 24th
30-yr $1281.28
15-yr $1707.22
5-yr ARM $1219.75
1-yr ARM $1134.32

So what else is going on in the mortgage industry. First it looks like the government might take over Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. A few months ago it was made clear that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae would be protected while other smaller banks would be allowed to fail. Now with Freddie and Fannie running into serious financial problems (Freddie Mac stock has sank from 65.88 to 4.75). Oddly enough one of the problems Freddie Mac faces is that because the US government has made it clear Freddie Mac is too large to fall, investors are hesitant to give funds to Freddie Mac under the assumption that their investment will not be repaid following a government takeover.

So what will happen following the government takeover of Freddie Mac. Personally I think it will be positive. Over the last several months Freddie Mac has created a pretty large list of loans they will not provide backing for. This has hurt the ability of people to get loans and in turn has been one of the negative factors dragging down the national real estate market. If the government takes over Freddie Mac a lot of these restrictions will probably be pulled back. So while it won't magically cure all the problems with the national real estate market it will alleviate at least one of the negative factors weighting it down.

Ki works as a realtor in the central Austin real estate market. His site provides a search of the Austin MLS and a free mortgage calculator along with general information for buyers about Austin real estate.

For the second week in a row 30 year mortgage rates held steady at 6.52. 15 year mortgages last week moved from 6.07 to 6.1. The week they returned to 6.07. So basically the fixed rates are holding steady. 5 Year Arms fell from 6.05 to 6.02 and 1 Year Arms fell from 5.22 to 5.18. So they didn't move that much. But what is interesting is the overall trend. This week marks the 3rd week in a row that both 5 and 1 year arms have fallen. The 1 year arm has fallen from 5.49 to 5.18. This continues an overall trend of the difference between 30 Year Fixed mortgages and 1 Year growing. On May 1st 30 Year Arms were at 6.06 and 1 Year Arms were at 5.29. Mortgage rates since then have risen up to 6.52 while 1 Year arms have fallen to 5.18. The question of course is why banks are making arms (the mortgage product that is partly responsible for the high rate of foreclosures) more attractive. And I don't have an answer on that. Below are the mortgage rates for the last few weeks.

August 14,2008
30-yr 6.52 15-yr 6.07 5-yr ARM 6.02 1-yr ARM 5.18

August 7,2008
30-yr 6.52 15-yr 6.1 5-yr ARM 6.05 1-yr ARM 5.22

July 31,2008
30-yr 6.52 15-yr 6.07 5-yr ARM 6.07 1-yr ARM 5.27

July 24,2008
30-yr 6.63 15-yr 6.18 5-yr ARM 6.16 1-yr ARM 5.49

July 17,2008
30-yr 6.26 15-yr 5.78 5-yr ARM 5.80 1-yr ARM 5.10

As always I like to translate the mortgage rates into an actual mortgage payment. So using our free mortgage calculator below are what today's rates would translate into for a 200k mortgage. I also run the numbers based on what mortgage rates were at on May 1st.

August 14th
30-yr $1266.76
15-yr $1695.28
5-yr ARM $1201.67
1-yr ARM $1095.75

May 1st, 2008
30-yr $1206.82
15-yr $1643.73
5-yr ARM $1164.60
1-yr ARM $1085.89

On the one hand in general I am against arms. They are generally dangerous so I don't like to recommend them. But with such a wide gap between arms and traditional mortgages they are hard to ignore. If you do get an arm I would be prepared for your mortgage to jump substantially. For the most part I would consider an arm if you had enough money in savings to pay off the property if rates jumped up dramatically over the year.

The other factor to consider when getting a mortgage is credit scores. While for the first half of 2007 all one had to do to get a mortgage was show up at a bank over the last years banks have gotten a lot tighter. Additionally, interest rates now more than ever are tied to ones credit score. So if you are planning on buying a house sometime in the near future its a good idea to figure out what your credit score is now to make sure there are no outstanding debts or problems you need to fix.

Escapeso Realty provides current information on mortgage interest rates on their site. They also provide a free mortgage calculator and a mortgage rates widget.

Mortgage interest rates were virtually unchanged this week. The 30 Year rate stayed even at 6.52. The 15 year rate moved up a little from 6.07 to 6.10 and the 5 year arm moved down from 6.07 to 6.05. The only rate that moved much was the one year are which fell from 5.27 to 5.22. The one year Arm had the biggest fall last week as well. So in total for the last two weeks the 1 year arm has fallen from 5.49 to 5.22 while the other 3 major mortgage products have not fallen more than .11. Why the one year ARM is looking so good is another question. A high percent of the foreclosures the country is currently dealing with are from ARM based mortgages. So it seems odd to encourage ARMs when they are partially responsible with the current mess we are in. Of course the people in charge of the various mortgage companies didn't lose billions in shareholder wealth in just two years by making prudent decisions. So who knows what their current strategy is. Here are mortgage interest rates for the major mortgage products for the last few weeks.

August 7,2008
30-yr 6.52 15-yr 6.10 5-yr ARM 6.05 1-yr ARM 5.22

July 31,2008
30-yr 6.52 15-yr 6.07 5-yr ARM 6.07 1-yr ARM 5.27

July 24,2008
30-yr 6.63 15-yr 6.18 5-yr ARM 6.16 1-yr ARM 5.49

July 17,2008
30-yr 6.26 15-yr 5.78 5-yr ARM 5.80 1-yr ARM 5.10

July 10,2008
30-yr 6.37 15-yr 5.91 5-yr ARM 5.82 1-yr ARM 5.17


As always what do all these crazy numbers mean. To put these numbers in perspective lets see what these rates translate into for a mortgage on a 200k house.

August 7th
30-yr $1266.76
15-yr $1698.53
5-yr ARM $1205.53
1-yr ARM $1100.69

July 31th
30-yr $1266.76
15-yr $1695.28
5-yr ARM $1208.11
1-yr ARM $1106.88

July 24th
30-yr $1281.28
15-yr $1707.22
5-yr ARM $1219.75
1-yr ARM $1134.32


On the one hand I am usually pretty against ARMs. But a difference of 166.07 a month is pretty hard to ignore. If you are thinking of getting a 1 Year ARM this my advice. 1) Make sure you have 12 months of mortgage payments in a liquid account. 2) Watch the rates over the next year and wait for rates to come down a bit. If they don't come down and instead come up make sure you can afford to refinance at a higher rate. 3) this should be obvious from point one and two but if you are getting a 1 Year Arm dont get anywhere near your maximum loan amount. So if you are approved for a 300k loan it might be ok to get a 1 Year ARM if you are buying a house that is 150k-200k. If you are approved for a 300k loan and get a house for 280k get a 30 Year loan its simply not worth the risk. With an ARM your mortgage rate will simply start to flucuate after a year unlike a balloon where you are forced to refinance.

Escapeso Realty is a small brokerage in Austin Texas. Their site provides updated graphs on mortgage interest rates. They provide a free mortgage calculator along with a mortgage rates widget

Before we talk about what happened with mortgage rates this week lets do a quick recap of what happened last week. Last week mortgage interest rates made a sudden jump over the previous week. For the entire month of June and July 30 year mortgage interest rates fluctuated from 6.09 to 6.45. Then last week 30 year mortgage rates jumped from 6.26 to 6.63. At the time we predicted that rates would probably fall this week because usually after big spikes there is a bit of correction. We saw exactly that with all four of the major mortgage products falling, but not back to their levels from two weeks ago. 30 Year rates from 6.63 to 6.52. The only mortgage product to fall substantially this week was the 1 Year ARM. Last week the 1 Year rate rose from 5.10 to 5.49. This week the 1 Year mortgage rate lost most of that gain falling to 5.27. Below are rates for the major mortgage products for the last month.

July 31, 2008
30-yr 6.52 15-yr 6.07 5-yr ARM 6.07 1-yr ARM 5.27

July 24, 2008
30-yr 6.63 15-yr 6.18 5-yr ARM 6.16 1-yr ARM 5.49

July 17, 2008
30-yr 6.26 15-yr 5.78 5-yr ARM 5.80 1-yr ARM 5.10

July 10, 2008
30-yr 6.37 15-yr 5.91 5-yr ARM 5.82 1-yr ARM 5.17

July 3, 2008
30-yr 6.35 15-yr 5.92 5-yr ARM 5.78 1-yr ARM 5.17

Ok so mortgage interest rates tell part of the story. But how does this translate into a mortgage payment. Using our free mortgage calculator lets translate the mortgage interest rates over the last few weeks into a mortgage payment for a 200k loan.

July 31th, 2008
30-yr $1266.76
15-yr $1695.28
5-yr ARM $1208.11
1-yr ARM $1106.88

July 24th, 2008
30-yr $1281.28
15-yr $1707.22
5-yr ARM $1219.75
1-yr ARM $1134.32

July 17th, 2008
30-yr $1232.73
15-yr $1664.03
5-yr ARM $1173.5
1-yr ARM $1085.89

So it looks like for now rates are still relatively high. The only mortgage product that remains relatively low is the 1 year mortgage rate. Comparing it to the 30 Year mortgage rate at 6.52 the 1 Year mortgage rate is 5.27. For a 200k mortgage the mortgage payment with a 30 Year loan would be 1266.76. For a 1 Year Arm the mortgage payment would be 1106.88 or about 12.6% less. The only problem with 1 Year ARM's is that their is no guarantee mortgage rates will be less in one year. And with all the volatility in the mortgage markets right now they could be somewhat higher.

Ki works in Austin Texas as a realtor. His website provides information on mortgage interest rates along with a free mortgage calculator. Their is also graphs that show historical mortgage interest rates

After falling for most of the month of July Mortgage interest rates jumped up. And not only did they move up they jumped to the highest levels we have seen in 2008. 30 Year rates jumped from 6.26 to 6.63 last week. To put that in perspective for the entire month of May mortgage rates fluctuated between 5.98 to 6.08. The increases were not confined to 30 Year rates, 15 year rates went from 5.78 to 6.18, 5 Year Arms went from 5.80 to 6.16 and 1 Year Arms went from 5.10 to 5.49. The interest rates we saw this week for all the major 4 mortgage products were the highest numbers we have seen for all of 2008. When was the last time we saw mortgage rates this high? I looked back through 2007 to find the last time we saw rates this high for the different mortgage products.

30 year - August 2 , 2007
15 Year - August 16, 2007
5 Year - September 20, 2007
1 Year - December 27, 2008

Below are mortgage rates for the last few weeks.

July 24,2008
30-yr 6.63 15-yr 6.18 5-yr ARM 6.16 1-yr ARM 5.49

July 17,2008
30-yr 6.26 15-yr 5.78 5-yr ARM 5.80 1-yr ARM 5.10

July 10,2008
30-yr 6.37 15-yr 5.91 5-yr ARM 5.82 1-yr ARM 5.17

July 3,2008
30-yr 6.35 15-yr 5.92 5-yr ARM 5.78 1-yr ARM 5.17

June 26,2008
30-yr 6.45 15-yr 6.04 5-yr ARM 5.99 1-yr ARM 5.27

Ok so mortgage rates are one thing. But what does this mean for an actual mortgage. using our free mortgage calculator and pulling a number out of a hat we looked at how these rate increases would affect a 200k mortgage.

July 24th
30-yr $1281.28
15-yr $1707.22
5-yr ARM $1219.75
1-yr ARM $1134.32

July 17th
30-yr $1232.73
15-yr $1664.03
5-yr ARM $1173.5
1-yr ARM $1085.89

So starting off the monthly payment on a 200k mortgage with 30 Year loan would be $48.55 more this week compared to last (1232.73 to 1281.28). A 15 Year mortgage would have increased $43.19, a 5 year mortgage increased $46.25, and a 1 year mortgage would have increased $48.43.

So why have rates risen so dramatically. A few bank closures have probably caused some uncertainty in the market. Additionally the FED spent the early part of the year trying to keep rates down and basically ignoring the risk of inflation. That has changed as inflation signs have started to crop up. So now the FED is worried more about the risk of inflation.

So usually when one mortgage product rises I advise potential home buyers to look at the other mortgage products. But this week all the mortgage products rose more or less equally. Therefore my advice would be to start looking at putting down more cash. With interest rates moving up near 7 it might be a good idea to evaluate other investments and consider putting a large down payment on a house. If you are thinking of buying a house in the next few months its probably a good idea to start paying more attention to savings.

So what is going to happen next week? Usually after we see a sudden large increase or decrease the next week we see rates move a little bit in the opposite direction. But what happens with mortgage interest rates over the next week and the next few months to a large extent is going to be based on what happens with the banks and the mortgage industry and at this point with all the turmoil in the markets its a little hard to predict what is going to happen next.

Ki provides updated information on mortgage interest rates along with a mortgage interest rates widget. His site also provides a free mortgage calculator.

For the second week in a row mortgage rates have fallen. For those that don't read my updates regularly I wanted to give a short background on what rates have been doing. From the end of April to the beginning of June 30 year mortgage rates hovered around 6 percent. Then during the month of June 30 year mortgage interest rates rose peaking out at 6.45 at the end of June. But since then rates have fallen through the month of July ot 6.26. So we are not down to 6 but rates have come down quite a bit from their recent high. Its also interesting rates have fallen although the FED has cut the Fed Funds rate or the discount rate since April 30th. Below are mortage interest rates for the major mortgage products for the last 5 weeks.

July 17,2008
30-yr 6.26 15-yr 5.78 5-yr ARM 5.80 1-yr ARM 5.10

July 10,2008
30-yr 6.37 15-yr 5.91 5-yr ARM 5.82 1-yr ARM 5.17

July 3,2008
30-yr 6.35 15-yr 5.92 5-yr ARM 5.78 1-yr ARM 5.17

June 26,2008
30-yr 6.45 15-yr 6.04 5-yr ARM 5.99 1-yr ARM 5.27

June 19,2008
30-yr 6.42 15-yr 6.02 5-yr ARM 5.89 1-yr ARM 5.19

Mortgage rates are nice to look at but what do these mortgage rates flucatuations mean for a mortgage. Using our free mortgage calculator we can run the numbers and see how these mortgage rate changes would affect the mortgage on a 200k loan.

July 17th
30-yr $1232.73
15-yr $1664.03
5-yr ARM $1173.5
1-yr ARM $1085.89

June 26th
30-yr $1257.56
15-yr $1692.03
5-yr ARM $1197.81
1-yr ARM $1106.88

June 5th
30-yr $1210.69
15-yr $1650.11
5-yr ARM $1136.83
1-yr ARM $1080.98

For a 30 Year mortgage on June 5th the monthly mortgage payment would have been $1210.69. Three week later on June 26th a mortgage on the same amount would have risen 4% to $1257.56. Now another 3 weeks the mortgage payment has fallen 2% to $1232.73

The other major change occuring with mortgages is that banks are becoming more selective in giving out mortgages. We have noticed over the last month that more restrictions from lenders have been coming into play. So although mortgage rates are relatively low it has become more difficult to get a loan. Over the last few years lenders would give a loan to anyone that could walk in the door this has changed over the last year. This is why potential home buyers should start paying more attention to their credit scores. Also lenders are expecting larger downpayments. Lenders are also cracking down on investment loans. The biggest change has been that most lenders are not allowing borrowers to get more than 4 investment loans. This has essentially stopped many investors from purchasing new properties.

So what do we expect to happen in the future. The general feeling among mortgage brokers is that lenders are unlikely to return to the free wheeling style we saw in 2006. But at the same time its likely that the current extreme restrictions in lending might ease up some over the next six months.

Ki is a real estate agent in Austin. His website has current information on mortgage interest rates. Along with a free mortgage calculator and information on historical mortgage interest rates

So what has been going on in the world of finance and mortgages? Certainly the biggest news was the fall of IndyMac. Last week we heard that IndyMac had stopped giving out new mortgage loans and was going to concentrate on simply servicing the existing loans in its portfolio. Apparently this was due to the fact that regulators felt that IndyMac was not adequately capitalized.

Many experts speculated that the days of IndyMac were numbered and might not last the year. They were right and not only did they not make it through the year they didn't even survive the rest of the week. On Friday it was announced that IndyMac was seized by US banking regulators. This was preceded by a rush on the bank by panicked depositors. The insurance fund currently has around 53 billion so the failure of IndyMac should be a significant drain of the insurance fund. The failure of the bank should cost the government insurance fund between 4 to 8 billion.

Moving on what is going on with mortgage rates this month. After rates rose through the month of June rates have fallen off in the first 2 weeks of July. This is good news because the rates feel in spite of the FED choosing not to lower rates at their last meeting. Rates on all the major mortgage products (30 Year, 15 Year, 5 Year and 1 Year) from the week of June 26 to July 3. Then rates for the most part held steady from July 3rd to July 10th. Rates fell the most on 5 Year Arms.

Its interesting to note that the spread between 5 Year Arms and 30 Year fixed notes has increased over the last month making 5 Year Arms more attractive. Below are the rates for the major mortgage products for the last few weeks.

July 10, 2008
30-yr 6.37 15-yr 5.91 5-yr ARM 5.82 1-yr ARM 5.17

July 3,2008
30-yr 6.35 15-yr 5.92 5-yr ARM 5.78 1-yr ARM 5.17

June 26,2008
30-yr 6.45 15-yr 6.04 5-yr ARM 5.99 1-yr ARM 5.27

June 19,2008
30-yr 6.42 15-yr 6.02 5-yr ARM 5.89 1-yr ARM 5.19

June 12,2008
30-yr 6.32 15-yr 5.93 5-yr ARM 5.70 1-yr ARM 5.09

June 5,2008
30-yr 6.09 15-yr 5.65 5-yr ARM 5.51 1-yr ARM 5.06

Moving on lets look at mortgage payments. I like to translate mortgage interest rates into how they would affect a mortgage payment because at the end of the day that is what we are dealing with. So breaking out our free mortgage calculator lets see what these rates mean for a mortgage on a 200k house.

July 10th
30-yr $1247.08
15-yr $1678
5-yr ARM $1176.05
1-yr ARM $1094.51

July 3rd
30-yr $1244.47
15-yr $1679.08
5-yr ARM $1170.96
1-yr ARM $1094.51

June 5th
30-yr $1210.69
15-yr $1650.11
5-yr ARM $1136.83
1-yr ARM $1080.98

So what do we see happening over the next few months. At the beginning of the summer we felt rates would rise because the FED decided to stop cutting rates. Rates rose for a month and then recently have held steady and then felt a bit. Moving forward I don’t have a clear idea what will happen with rates. I would have thought rates might fallen but with the fall of IndyMac the mortgage industry does not seem to be stabilizing so its uncertain what will happen with rates over the next month.

Ki works in Austin. His site is filled with information about mortgage interest rates along with providing a free mortgage rates widget and a free mortgage calculator.

Mortgage Interest Rates Widget Mortgage Rate Trends

After rising drastically last week fixed mortgage interest rates moved up slightly this week. 30 Year notes moved from 6.42 to 6.45 and 15 Year notes moved from 6.02 to 6.04. ARMS on the other hand rose a decent amount. 5 Year Arms rose from 5.89 to 5.99 while 1 Year Arms rose from 5.19 to 5.27. Below are mortgage rates for the last few weeks.

June 26,2008
30-yr 6.45 15-yr 6.04 5-yr ARM 5.99 1-yr ARM 5.27

June 19,2008
30-yr 6.42 15-yr 6.02 5-yr ARM 5.89 1-yr ARM 5.19

June 12,2008
30-yr 6.32 15-yr 5.93 5-yr ARM 5.70 1-yr ARM 5.09

June 5,2008
30-yr 6.09 15-yr 5.65 5-yr ARM 5.51 1-yr ARM 5.06

May 29,2008
30-yr 6.08 15-yr 5.66 5-yr ARM 5.62 1-yr ARM 5.22

May 22,2008
30-yr 5.98 15-yr 5.55 5-yr ARM 5.61 1-yr ARM 5.24

Using our free mortgage calculator lets run the numbers on a 200k loan based on todays rates. We also put in what the mortgage would be a week and a month ago.

June 26th
30-yr $1257.56
15-yr $1692.03
5-yr ARM $1197.81
1-yr ARM $1106.88

June 19th
30-yr $1253.6
15-yr $1689.87
5-yr ARM $1184.99
1-yr ARM $1096.98

May 29th
30-yr $1209.4
15-yr $1651.19
5-yr ARM $1150.68
1-yr ARM $1100.69

So looking at the numbers above one would have saved almost $50 by getting a 30 Year loan a month ago compared to today. In contrast a mortgage on a 1 Year Arm has remained relatively constant. Why Banks would want to promote 1 Year Arms is anyones guess. Based on the other recent decisions by banks it would not be a bad assumption to assume banks have no idea what they are doing this point.

At this point getting a 5 Year Loan doesnt really seem worth it compared to getting a 30 Year loan since the cost savings is not that high (5%). On the other hand if you plan on keeping the property for a short period of time a 1 Year loan seems attractive considering the cost savings(12%).

Ki lives in Austin. His website has information on Austin real estate along with search of the Austin MLS and market stats on his Austin real estate blog.

Mortgage Interest Rates Historical Mortgage Rates

After several weeks of staying relatively flat mortgage interest rates jumped up this week. 30 Year mortgage went from 6.09 to 6.32. 15 Year Mortgage moved from 5.65 to 5.93. 5 Year rates went from 5.51 to 5.70. The only rate that was somewhat stable was 1 Year Arms which went up from 5.06 to 5.09. Two weeks ago we predicted that rates would increase over the summer and they seem to be doing exactly that.

June 12,2008
30-yr 6.32 15-yr 5.93 5-yr ARM 5.70 1-yr ARM 5.09

June 5,2008
30-yr 6.09 15-yr 5.65 5-yr ARM 5.51 1-yr ARM 5.06

May 29,2008
30-yr 6.08 15-yr 5.66 5-yr ARM 5.62 1-yr ARM 5.22

May 22,2008
30-yr 5.98 15-yr 5.55 5-yr ARM 5.61 1-yr ARM 5.24

May 15, 2008
30-yr 6.01 15-yr 5.60 5-yr ARM 5.57 1-yr ARM 5.18

May 8, 2008
30-yr 6.05 15-yr 5.60 5-yr ARM 5.67 1-yr ARM 5.29

Using out free mortgage calculator lets see what the rate increase mean for the payments on a 200k mortgage. We calculated out the mortgage payments based on today's mortgage interest rates and rates a week and a month ago.

June 12th
30-yr $1240.55
15-yr $1680.15
5-yr ARM $1160.80
1-yr ARM $1084.67

June 5th
30-yr $1210.69
15-yr $1650.11
5-yr ARM $1136.83
1-yr ARM $1080.98

May 8th, 2008
30-yr $1205.53
15-yr $1644.79
5-yr ARM $1157.00
1-yr ARM $1109.36

So for a 30 Year Mortgage on a 200k loan the mortgage payment went up about $30 or about 2.5 percent. The mortgage on a 15 Year mortgage also went up about $30. What is weird is rates on 1 Year ARMs stayed about the same and are actually down from a month ago. This makes no sense. Banks are dealing with foreclosures that are mostly coming from borrowers that got 5 and 1 Year ARMs. Basically when the ARMs reset borrowers are frequently unable to make the higher payments and wide up facing foreclosure. One would think banks would be discouraging these high risk loans. I would like to think the banks know something I don't. But looking at their foolish behavior over the last few years (giving loans to everyone that walked in the door from 2004-2006) its a distinct possibility they are just plain foolish. So again this week 1 Year ARMs look attractive. Just remember in a year your rate and mortgage could be higher so it would be wise to have some cash on the side to pay a potentially higher mortgage. And I would expect rates to be higher one year from today.

So what would I expect to happen over the rest of the summer. First off I don't see rates going down. The FED has given numerous signals they don't plan to lower rates. Will rates continue to go up? I am not sure. I expected rates to creep up over the next month instead of jumping up this month. So I hope rates stay relatively flat but they could go higher over the next month.

Escapeso Realty operates in the Austin real estate market. They work with investors interested in Austin commercial real estate and provide a search of the Austin MLS on their website.

Mortgage Interest Rates Mortgage Rate Trends

Rates on 15 and 30 Year Fixed loans were pretty much stable this week. Rates on 5 and 1 year ARMs both fell. With 1 Year ARMs falling from 5.22 to 5.06. This is the lowest 1 Year Arms have been since early March. Its a little wierd considering banks are losing a lot of money on ARMs from people going into foreclosure when their ARMs reset. So one would think that banks would be discouraging people from getting 5 and 1 year ARMs. But instead with a full point difference between 30 Year Fixed and One Year Arms they are doing exactly the opposite.

June 5,2008
30-yr 6.09 15-yr 5.65 5-yr ARM 5.51 1-yr ARM 5.06

May 29,2008
30-yr 6.08 15-yr 5.66 5-yr ARM 5.62 1-yr ARM 5.22

May 22,2008
30-yr 5.98 15-yr 5.55 5-yr ARM 5.61 1-yr ARM 5.24

May 15, 2008
30-yr 6.01 15-yr 5.60 5-yr ARM 5.57 1-yr ARM 5.18

May 8, 2008
30-yr 6.05 15-yr 5.60 5-yr ARM 5.67 1-yr ARM 5.29

May 1, 2008
30-yr 6.06 15-yr 5.59 5-yr ARM 5.73 1-yr ARM 5.29

Using our mortgage calculator lets run some numbers and look at what the rates would translate into today and a month ago.

June 5th
30-yr $1210.69
15-yr $1650.11
5-yr ARM $1136.83
1-yr ARM $1080.98

May 8th, 2008
30-yr $1205.53
15-yr $1711.46
5-yr ARM $1157
1-yr ARM $1109.36

A few weeks ago I wrote about how it made sense to get a 30 Year Fixed over a 5 Year ARM because there was not a big difference in the monthly mortgage payment you would be facing . As of today that is no longer true. On a 200k loan there is a $73.86 difference in the monthly mortgage payment between a 30 Year Fixed and a 5 Year ARM. I still don't like ARM's because your mortgage payment can reset when you are not ready for it. For instance I have heard stories of people losing their jobs a week before their mortgage interest rates resets to a higher number. But with the large difference in today's rates makes it hard to ignore the cost savings one would get with a 5 Year ARM. If you consider getting an ARM I would advise saving the difference of $73.86 a month and setting that aside for when the ARM resets. If you sell before your ARM resets you can just consider that savings a bonus.

Escapeso Realty is a small independent brokerage covering Austin Texas real estate. They have a graphical Austin MLS search and a blog with market updates on Austin real estate.

Mortgage Rates Widget Historical Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates on 30 Year Arms and 15 Year Arms jumped up this rate. 30 Year Mortgage Rates went from 5.98 to 6.08 and 15 Year rates went fom 5.55 to 5.66. Rates on 5 and 1 year ARMS remained relatively unchanged.

May 29,2008
30-yr 6.08 15-yr 5.66 5-yr ARM 5.62 1-yr ARM 5.22

May 22,2008
30-yr 5.98 15-yr 5.55 5-yr ARM 5.61 1-yr ARM 5.24

May 15, 2008
30-yr 6.01 15-yr 5.60 5-yr ARM 5.57 1-yr ARM 5.18

May 8, 2008
30-yr 6.05 15-yr 5.60 5-yr ARM 5.67 1-yr ARM 5.29

May 1, 2008
30-yr 6.06 15-yr 5.59 5-yr ARM 5.73 1-yr ARM 5.29

So using our free mortgage calculator lets see what these numbers translate into for a 200k mortgage.

May 29th
30-yr $1209.4
15-yr $1651.19
5-yr ARM $1150.68
1-yr ARM $1167.36

May 22th
30-yr $1196.53
15-yr $1639.47
5-yr ARM $1149.41
1-yr ARM $1103.16

Since the FED has signaled that they are not going to continue to cut rate I expect rates to go higher over the course of the summer. Here are rates over the last few weeks.

Ki is a realtor working with investors in the Austin real estate market. He provides visitors a graphical search of the Austin MLS and updated commentary on the market on his Austin real estate blog.

Mortgage Interest Rates Historical Mortgage Rates

Mortgages rates fell this week for 30 Year loan (6.01 to 5.98) and 15 year rates (5.6 to 5.55). Rates on 5 and 1 year arms increased (5.57 to 5.61 and 5.18 to 5.24) respectivly. Another interesting point is that 30 Year rates have now fallen for 4 weeks in a row which is an encouraging sign although it would be nice to have seen rates fall a little more.

May 22,2008
30-yr 5.98 15-yr 5.55 5-yr ARM 5.61 1-yr ARM 5.24

May 15, 2008
30-yr 6.01 15-yr 5.60 5-yr ARM 5.57 1-yr ARM 5.18

May 8, 2008
30-yr 6.05 15-yr 5.60 5-yr ARM 5.67 1-yr ARM 5.29

May 1, 2008
30-yr 6.06 15-yr 5.59 5-yr ARM 5.73 1-yr ARM 5.29

So what would these rates translate into for a mortgage. Using our free mortgage calculator lets run some numbers.

Using our free mortgage calculator lets run the numbers on a 200k Loan

May 15th
30-yr $1196.53
15-yr $1639.47
5-yr ARM $1149.41
1-yr ARM $1103.16

May 15th
30-yr $1200.38
15-yr $1711.46
5-yr ARM $1144.37
1-yr ARM $1095.75

At this point I would still favor a 30 Year loan over an arm. But getting an arm over a 30 Year arm you would only save $47.12 which considering rates will probably be higher when the loan resets does not really seem worth it.

Ki works with buyers and sellers in the Austin real estate market. His site has a free search of the Austin MLS along with information on his Austin real estate blog.

You would probably have to have been living on a remote desert island for the better part of two years to not see any signs of the slowdown in the economy of the United States. Since August of 2007, the real estate market has been reeling from plummeting house prices, due primarily to increasing defaults on sub-prime mortgages. While these mortgages were issued to millions of borrowers with patchy or relatively poor credit ratings over the past several years, interest rates remained unusually low before the Federal Reserve began to increase rates over 2005-2006.

Up until late 2006, this process was self-reinforcing, mainly due to the delayed impacts of interest rate changes, not to mention encouraging profits for lenders, who would often repackage the loans into securities which could be sold to investors globally. Many analysts called it a new era in risk management, justifying the arcane nature of many of these new investment entities with ever-larger profits.

But just as higher interest rates began to take their deflationary effects on the larger economy, millions of sub-prime mortgages began to reset, their rates immediately dependent on available credit. Moreover, many borrowers were not made aware of the insidious nature of their home loans.

Often, their interest rates are artificially low for some period of time, usually one to two years, and then change to reflect market rates afterward. These "teaser" rates were designed to lure more potential homeowners, and they worked: all estimates of the amount of sub-prime mortgages number in the millions, and many consumer advocacy groups have decried the skyrocketing incidence of "predatory loaning" leading up to the credit crunch. Defaults have continued to increase, which has forced the financial institutions which invested in mortgage-backed securities to write down billions, eventually leading to the spectacular collapse earlier this year of Bear Stearns, formerly Wall Street's fifth-largest investment bank.

Since the securities made from these increasingly worthless mortgages have been so widespread, any effort towards recovery must first be focused on stabilizing borrowers, who are increasingly behind on payments. In this respect, the government has taken several different courses of action. In an effort to stop unnecessary foreclosures, the US Treasury has begun an initiative to freeze mortgage payments at current levels for qualified recipients. However, its restrictions make less than 5% of homeowners eligible for the program.

In addition, the Treasury has introduced a plan to reorganize and regulate the lending industry over the next several years, which should help streamline the financial system in the future. However, its greatest effect so far has been to distract from more immediate economic problems.

By far, the greatest player in the recovery effort has been the Federal Reserve, which reversed its previously hawkish view to drop mortgage interest rates multiple times, from 5.25% last summer to 2.25% now, with a further cut of 25 basis points highly likely at the next meeting. They have also taken the unprecedented move of making its "discount window" rate loans available to investment banks. This access has historically only been available for commercial banks up until this point as a matter of last resort, but by bailing out Bear Stearns, the Fed made a commitment to help troubled investment banks weather the credit crisis. A recovery will require a combination of liberal monetary policy, further government intervention on behalf of mortgage holders, and enforceable regulation in order to prevent another bubble.

Ki is a real estate agent in Austin Texas. He runs a site filled with information about Austin real estate. His site provides information on mortgage interest rates along with a search of the Austin MLS.

Mortgage Interest Rates Historical Mortgage Interest Rate

Here is a breakdown for the last few weeks.

May 15, 2008
30-yr 6.01 15-yr 5.60% 5-yr ARM 5.57 1-yr ARM 5.18

May 8, 2008
30-yr 6.05 15-yr 5.60% 5-yr ARM 5.67 1-yr ARM 5.29

May 1, 2008
30-yr 6.06 15-yr 5.59% 5-yr ARM 5.73 1-yr ARM 5.29

April 24th, 2008
30-yr 6.03 15-yr 5.62% 5-yr ARM 5.68 1-yr ARM 5.29

So what would these rates translate into for a mortgage. Using our free mortgage calculator lets run some numbers.

Using our free mortgage calculator lets take a look at what the mortgage payment would be for a 200k loan. The mortgage payment is $1.29 less than what it would have been last week. Considering that the FED cut rates I was a little dissappointed. I was hoping for rates to drop a little more this week.

May 15th
30-yr $1200.38
15-yr $1711.46
5-yr ARM $1144.37
1-yr ARM $1095.75

May 8th, 2008
30-yr $1205.53
15-yr $1711.46
5-yr ARM $1157
1-yr ARM $1109.36

Ki helps clients in the Austin real estate market. His site has a free search of the Austin MLS along with information on his Austin real estate blog.

On May 2nd, The Federal Reserve issued a statement about the crisis in liquidity which has bottlenecked global growth for several months. Since last August, banks have written down $300 billion in sub-prime related securities, but the IMF has predicted that the eventual cost will exceed $1 trillion. As major banks unloaded debt over the last half of 2007, their balance sheets became spread too thinly. As a result, they have become increasingly less willing to lend, especially to each other, preferring instead to shore up capital.

The resulting credit crunch has had a knock-on effect on the larger economy, prompting the US central banks to slash the key Federal Funds rate seven consecutive times in as many months, from 5.25 percent to 2%. This policy has resulted in flat or slightly negative real interest rates, but mortgage and other interest rates remain artificially inflated, thus mitigating some of the benefits. Another problem with lowering interest rates is that it is difficult to gauge their effects on market conditions, as they typically take some time to work their way through the financial system.

Indeed, while interest rates have taken most of the headlines, the central bank has also taken extensive action in direct lending to banks. The most well-known example of this marked shift in policy is the Fed-backed bailout of the troubled investment bank Bear Stearns earlier this year. The floundering securities firm had problems with one of its hedge funds in early 2007, leading up to a well-publicized meltdown in March as other banks became wary of lending to them. This eventually forced them to seek emergency assistance, resulting in their buyout by JP Morgan with a guarantee of funding by the Fed to the tune of $29 billion. By extending the so-called "discount window" to an investment bank, the central bank took a de factor role as lender of last resort, a privilege usually reserved for commercial banks. Whether they overstepped any boundaries is now moot, of course. Likely the ensuing panic upon the failure of one of the largest US banks would have been worse than keeping them afloat. Their decision has proven to help provide short-term stability for markets.

Despite regular injections of capital from the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Federal Reserve, investors seem unsure that the end of the credit crunch is nigh. Inflation has reared its head in recent months, leading to global food riots and record gasoline prices. The weakening dollar has contributed greatly, as the oil-producing nations which price their exports in the US currency are forced to raise prices accordingly. Interest rate cuts are likely over for a long while, as the Fed tries to balance continuing liquidity issues with inflation. $600 billion in Fed-issued loans has covered much of the cost of the credit crisis so far, but IMF estimates are only applicable for the numbers used to make them. Unless banks are growing, building capital, or both, liquidity will continue to hamper recovery. It will take time, but restoring confidence for investors and lenders is the only way economic growth can resume.

Ki provides information and analysis on his site about Austin real estate along with providing a search of the Austin MLS. He also posts regular market updates on his Austin real estate blog.