So are sub 5.0 rates gone forever? The short answer is probably yes. While rates might briefly fall below 5 in the next month for the most part the era of sub 5.0 rates is over. Mortgage rates rose for the third straight week. The thirty year rate rose from 5.00 to 5.03. The 15 year rate rose from 4.43 to 4.46. The 5 and 1 year rates rose from 4.40 to 4.42 and 4.54 to 4.57. Its interesting to note that the 1 year arm has had a higher rate than the 5 year arm for the last few weeks. Below are rates for the last few weeks.

Oct 29, 2009
30-yr 5.03 15-yr 4.46 5-yr ARM 4.42 1-yr ARM 4.57

Oct 22, 2009
30-yr 5.00 15-yr 4.43 5-yr ARM 4.40 1-yr ARM 4.54

Oct 15, 2009
30-yr 4.92 15-yr 4.37 5-yr ARM 4.38 1-yr ARM 4.60

Oct 08, 2009
30-yr 4.87 15-yr 4.33 5-yr ARM 4.35 1-yr ARM 4.53

Oct 01, 2009
30-yr 4.94 15-yr 4.36 5-yr ARM 4.42 1-yr ARM 4.49

Apr 02, 2009
30-yr 5.05 15-yr 5.13 5-yr ARM 5.00 1-yr ARM 4.78

The only two mortgage products that are interesting is the 30 year and the 15 year fixed rates. With 1 year rates higher than the 5 year arm they are obviously pointless. And with current rates low compared to historical mortgage rates the lower rates of the 5 year arm (compared to the 30 year rate) don't seem worth the risk. In addition to mortgage rates lets look at mortgage payments. Taking today's rates we can translate them into a payment for a 200k mortgage. We did the same thing with rates from October 15th (2 weeks ago) and April 2 (6 months ago).

Oct 29
30-yr $1077.31
15-yr $1525.9
5-yr ARM $1003.88
1-yr ARM $1021.7

Oct 15
30-yr $1063.88
15-yr $1516.73
5-yr ARM $999.16
1-yr ARM $1025.28

Apr 02
30-yr $1079.76
15-yr $1595.16
5-yr ARM $1073.64
1-yr ARM $1046.91

A mortgage payment is about $13 more than 2 weeks ago and about $2 less than it was six months ago.

So why are rates rising? Although its a weak recovery, the economy by most accounts is experiencing a recovery. In addition, the government has lowered the amount of mortgage backed securities it was buying which was keeping rates artifically low.

So what is our advice to people interested in buying a house? It might seem obvious but I would lock in now instead of waiting. Almost all signs point to mortgage rates rising over the next few months. The real question is will the strengthing real estate market be able to withstand higher rates? We will have to wait to find out.


Ki writes frequently about the mortgage industry and mortgage rates. He caters to the real estate market in Austin. His site www.escapesomewhere.com www.escapesomewhere.com has information on historical mortgage rates along with a free mortgage widget.

After falling for the last 6 weeks mortgage rates started to rise this week. The 30 year rate rose from 4.87 to 4.92. The 15 year mortgage rose from 4.33 to 4.37. Both arms rose as well with the 5 year arm rising from 4.35 to 4.38 and the 1 year arm rising from 4.53 to 4.60. Below are mortgage rates for the last several weeks along with mortgage rates from March 19, 2009.

Oct 15, 2009
30-yr 4.92 15-yr 4.37 5-yr ARM 4.38 1-yr ARM 4.60

Oct 08, 2009
30-yr 4.87 15-yr 4.33 5-yr ARM 4.35 1-yr ARM 4.53

Oct 01, 2009
30-yr 4.94 15-yr 4.36 5-yr ARM 4.42 1-yr ARM 4.49

Sep 24, 2009
30-yr 5.04 15-yr 4.46 5-yr ARM 4.51 1-yr ARM 4.52

Sep 17, 2009
30-yr 5.04 15-yr 4.47 5-yr ARM 4.51 1-yr ARM 4.58

Mar 19, 2009
30-yr 4.98 15-yr 4.61 5-yr ARM 4.98 1-yr ARM 4.91

Overall its not that interesting that rates moved up. Moving up .05 points is not that significant. For the last few months the speculation has been that rates are going to eventually move up. Additionally, the federal government has been pulling back on the amount of mortgage securities it was buying (which was pushing mortgage rates down). So the question is whether this weeks rise in mortgage rates was just normal volatility or the beginning of the steady rise in mortgage rates that some have been predicting. At this point it's an impossible question to answer for the most part we will have to wait and see.

In addition to rates it's also interesting to look at mortgage payments. We took today's rates and determined the mortgage payment on a 200k loan. We also did the same thing with rates from October 1st (2 weeks ago) and March 12, 2009 (6 months ago).

Oct 15
30-yr $1063.88
15-yr $1516.73
5-yr ARM $999.16
1-yr ARM $1025.28

Oct 01
30-yr $1066.32
15-yr $1515.71
5-yr ARM $1003.88
1-yr ARM $1012.18

Mar 12
30-yr $1077.31
15-yr $1544.33
5-yr ARM $1072.42
1-yr ARM $1049.33

Overall looking at mortgage rates/mortgage payments from 2 weeks and 6 months ago we are not seeing a lot of movement. Compared to March 12 (6 months ago) a mortgage payment on a 200k loan would only be $13.42 less a month or 1.24 percent less. By comparison if rates rise to 7 percent (historically about average) a mortgage payment would be 266.72 more a month or a rise of 25%. While a rise to 7 percent seems like a lot many experts are expecting rates to move up to 9 or 10 percent.

So what is our advice for people looking for a mortgage? First it's probably best to start looking for a mortgage early on in the home buying process. It's more difficult to get a loan and waiting to the last minute is not advisable. Additionally, it's probably advisable to lock in a rate earlier instead of later. While mortgage rates could fall its doubtful they could drop by much at this point. On the other hand it's possible that mortgage rates could move up dramatically. So there is more to lose than gain by waiting to lock in on a mortgage. If mortgage rates do start to rise dramatically it could deal a serious blow to the real estate recovery we are currently seeing in several markets around the country.


Ki works in Austin real estate. His site has different mortgage widgets to keep track of mortgage rates. His site escapesomewhere.com has information on Austin along with a blog focused on Austin Texas real estate

Mortgage rates rose again this week. This is the third time in the last 4 weeks that mortgage rates have risen. Why are mortgage rates rising? There are numerous factors at play but generally once the economy recovers it's expected that inflation, and mortgage rates, should rise. The last month of generally positive economic news has probably helped nudge mortgage rates up. Although rates are increasing they are increasing in small steps and not large strides. Since July 16th the 30 year rate has only moved from 5.14 to 5.29. While this is interesting it's certainly not a huge move upward. What is interesting is that the current (small) upward movement in mortgage rates might be the beginning of the rise that many in the financial industry have predicted. If the economy continues to rebound this could be the beginning of mortgage rates steadily moving up to 10% or higher. This is of course dependent on the continued movement of the US economy out of the current recession. While the government has made some statements about curbing inflation it seems more concerned with making sure the US exists the recession. Of the 4 major indexes 3 moved up this week. The 30 year note rose from 5.22 to 5.29, the 15 year mortgage rose from 4.63 to 4.68 and the 5 year arm rose from 4.73 to 4.75. The 1 year arm fell from 4.78 to 4.72. What is also interesting is that when rates were at their lows a few months ago the 5 and 1 year arm was higher than the 30 year fixed rate, which is highly abnormal. Since the 30 year rate has gone up (and the arms have stayed down) the 30 year rate is now above both arms. And now the spread between the 30 year rate and the arms is back to normal. Below are the rates for the different mortgage products for the last few weeks and for January 15 (6 months ago). Aug 13, 2009 30-yr 5.29 15-yr 4.68 5-yr ARM 4.75 1-yr ARM 4.72 Aug 06, 2009 30-yr 5.22 15-yr 4.63 5-yr ARM 4.73 1-yr ARM 4.78 Jul 30, 2009 30-yr 5.25 15-yr 4.69 5-yr ARM 4.75 1-yr ARM 4.80 Jul 23, 2009 30-yr 5.20 15-yr 4.68 5-yr ARM 4.74 1-yr ARM 4.77 Jul 16, 2009 30-yr 5.14 15-yr 4.63 5-yr ARM 4.83 1-yr ARM 4.76 - - - Jan 15, 2009 30-yr 4.96 15-yr 4.65 5-yr ARM 5.25 1-yr ARM 4.89 In addition to rates it's always interesting to look at actual mortgage payments. We took today's rates and using a mortgage calculator translated them into a payment for a 200k mortgage. We also did the same thing with rates from July 30, 2009 (2 weeks ago) and January 15, 2009 (6 months ago). Aug 13 30-yr $1109.36 15-yr $1548.44 5-yr ARM $1043.29 1-yr ARM $1039.68 Jul 30 30-yr $1104.4 15-yr $1549.47 5-yr ARM $1043.29 1-yr ARM $1049.33 Jan 15 30-yr $1068.75 15-yr $1545.36 5-yr ARM $1104.4 1-yr ARM $1060.23 As we can see that while rates have risen the effect on a mortgage payment (looking at the 30 year fixed rate) is relatively small. So what is our advice to potential buyers looking for a mortgage? I would start the process of looking for a lender/mortgage early on. Financing is stricter than it has been in the past and its good to start the process early so any potential problems can be resolved (i.e. credit report problems or extra documentation that is needed). Additionally, with a possible spike in inflation looming there is more of a risk of rates rising than falling so it makes sense to lock in early.

There was not much movement in most of the major mortgage products this week. The 30 year rate dropped from 4.86 to 4.82. This is only slightly above the 4.78 all time low that was reached a few weeks ago. The 15 year rate dropped from 4.52 to 4.50. There was some interesting movement with the 5 and 1 year arm. The 5 year arm dropped from 4.82 to 4.79. At the same time the 1 year arm rose from 4.71 to 4.82. This is the first time the 1 year arm has been above the 5 year arm. Regardless both rates are pointless because they are at or near the same rates for a 30 year arm; therefore there is no reason to get an arm instead of a 30 year mortgage in the current market. Below are mortgage rates for the last few weeks and from 6 months ago on November 20, 2008.

May 21, 2009
30-yr 4.82 15-yr 4.50 5-yr ARM 4.79 1-yr ARM 4.82

May 14, 2009
30-yr 4.86 15-yr 4.52 5-yr ARM 4.82 1-yr ARM 4.71

May 07, 2009
30-yr 4.84 15-yr 4.51 5-yr ARM 4.90 1-yr ARM 4.78

Apr 30, 2009
30-yr 4.78 15-yr 4.48 5-yr ARM 4.80 1-yr ARM 4.77

Nov 20, 2008
30-yr 6.04 15-yr 5.73 5-yr ARM 5.87 1-yr ARM 5.29

As we can see rates have not experienced much movement in the last month. They have continued to hover around all time lows for the month of May. They remain substantially lower than what we saw 6 months ago. In addition to rates we always like to look at actual mortgage payments. We took today's rates and translated them into a mortgage payment for a 200k mortgage. We did the same thing with rates from last week and rates from November 20, 2008.

May 21
30-yr $1051.74
15-yr $1529.98
5-yr ARM $1048.12
1-yr ARM $1051.74

May 14
30-yr $1056.59
15-yr $1532.03
5-yr ARM $1051.74
1-yr ARM $1038.47

Nov 20
30-yr $1204.24
15-yr $1658.67
5-yr ARM $1182.43
1-yr ARM $1109.36

A mortgage payment this week is slightly lower than what it would have been last month. This is nothing compared to the saving one would get compared to 6 months ago. For a 200k house a mortgage payment is $152.50 less a month now than it would have been on November 20, 2008 for a drop of 12.66%. This is often forgotten when the media talks about home prices being down 15% to 20%. After one factors in mortgage rates along with falling house prices the actual payments could be down over 30%.

So what do we expect to happen over the next few months? As long as the economy stays week mortgage rates will probably continue to hover around just under 5%. Once the economy starts to recover the general expectation is that rates should start to rise. It's hard to know how high mortgage rates will go once the economy recovers. Estimates have ranged from 10% to 18%. Most of this will depend on how quickly the economy recovers and if the FED moves quickly enough to changes policies from boosting the economy to slowing inflation.


Ki lives in Austin Texas. He website provides a free Austin home search. He also provides a mortgage calculator widget along with a few other mortgage widgets that show updated information on mortgage rates.

After moving down for the last 3 weeks mortgage rates finally started to move up. The 30 year rate jumped from 4.78 (equaling the all time low) to 4.84. This is the highest the 30 year rate has been since April 9th. The other 3 major mortgage rates rose this week as well. The 15 year rate moved up slightly from 4.48 to 4.51. The 5 year arm moved from 4.80 to 4.90 pushing it farther above the 30 year rate. It's been sometime since the 5 year arm was below the 30 year fixed rate. It looks like the 5 year ARM is becoming more of a relic for the conventional residential buyer. The 1 year arm kept mostly steady rising from 4.77 to 4.78. Below are rates for the major mortgage products for the last few weeks. We also looked at rates from November 6, 2008 (6 months ago).

May 07, 2009
30-yr 4.84 15-yr 4.51 5-yr ARM 4.90 1-yr ARM 4.78

Apr 30, 2009
30-yr 4.78 15-yr 4.48 5-yr ARM 4.80 1-yr ARM 4.77

Apr 23, 2009
30-yr 4.80 15-yr 4.48 5-yr ARM 4.85 1-yr ARM 4.82

Apr 16, 2009
30-yr 4.82 15-yr 4.48 5-yr ARM 4.88 1-yr ARM 4.91

Apr 09, 2009
30-yr 4.87 15-yr 4.54 5-yr ARM 4.93 1-yr ARM 4.83

Nov 06, 2008
30-yr 6.20 15-yr 5.88 5-yr ARM 6.19 1-yr ARM 5.25

In addition to mortgage rates we always like to look at mortgage payments. We took today's rates and converted them into a mortgage for a 200k loan. We did the same thing with rates from last week and rates from November 6th, 2008.

May 07
30-yr $1054.17
15-yr $1531
5-yr ARM $1061.45
1-yr ARM $1046.91

Apr 30
30-yr $1046.91
15-yr $1527.94
5-yr ARM $1049.33
1-yr ARM $1045.7

Nov 06
30-yr $1224.93
15-yr $1674.77
5-yr ARM $1223.64
1-yr ARM $1104.4

Compared to last week a mortgage payment on a 200k loan would be $7.26 higher a month. This pales in comparison to the difference between today's payment and what the payment would be on the same loan 6 months ago. Compared to November 6, 2008 monthly payments today are $170.76 less or down 13.94 percent.

It's hard to know how much longer 30 year mortgage rates will stay below 5 percent. Last week the government auction of 30 year bonds was met with a cool reception. If the US is not able to auction off its increasing debt we should start to see higher mortgage rates. Add this to the general perception that inflation is coming because of the massive stimulus plans that have been enacted along with an improving economy its unlikely mortgage rates will stay this low much longer.

Although some are seeing signs of improvement in the economy lenders have remained extremely strict in their lending practices. People that would have easily obtained a loan at most times in the last 20 years are being routinely denied. Therefore if you are considering getting a loan in the next few months it's important to start researching your credit score and talking to different banks or mortgage brokers early on in the home buying process.


Ki created a site escapesomewhere.com that has information on the Austin market. It also has a mortgage rates widget and a free mortgage calculator.

30 Year Mortgage Rates dropped from 5.15 to 5.03. With the exception of the weeks of January 8th, 2009 and January 15th 2009 this is the lowest rates have been in over 40 years. The other 3 major mortgage products dropped as well with 15 year arms moving down from 4.72 to 4.64, 5 year arms going from 5.08 to 4.99 and 1 year arms moving from 4.86 to 4.80. Although the 5 year arm has moved below the 30 year fixed for the last few weeks there is still no real reason to get a 5 year arm at 4.99 when you can lock in for 30 years at 5.03 at historically low rates. Below are mortgage rates for the four major products for the last few weeks.

Mar 12, 2009
30-yr 5.03 15-yr 4.64 5-yr ARM 4.99 1-yr ARM 4.80

Mar 05, 2009
30-yr 5.15 15-yr 4.72 5-yr ARM 5.08 1-yr ARM 4.86

Feb 26, 2009
30-yr 5.07 15-yr 4.68 5-yr ARM 5.06 1-yr ARM 4.81

Feb 19, 2009
30-yr 5.04 15-yr 4.68 5-yr ARM 5.04 1-yr ARM 4.80

Feb 12, 2009
30-yr 5.16 15-yr 4.81 5-yr ARM 5.23 1-yr ARM 4.94

So we also wanted to look at mortgage payments. We took today's rates and translated them into the payment on a 200k loan. We also translated the rates from January 15th, which was the lowest rates we have seen, and from October 16th which is the highest rates we have seen in the last few months.

Mar 12
30-yr 1077.31
15-yr 1544.33
5-yr ARM 1072.42
1-yr ARM 1049.33

Jan 15
30-yr $1068.75
15-yr $1545.36
5-yr ARM $1104.4
1-yr ARM $1060.23

Oct 16
30-yr $1258.87
15-yr $1702.87
5-yr ARM $1217.16
1-yr ARM $1093.28

Looking above its obvious anyway getting a loan today didn't lose out all that much by not catching rates at their absolute lows on January 15th. Payments for a 200k 30 year mortgage today are less than $10 dollar more a month. But their are substantial savings compared to what we saw a few months ago. Payments would be $181.56 less today compared to getting a 200k loan on October 16th.

That relates to our next point of where mortgage rates are going. I can't say for certain what they are going to do over the next 2 months. I would guess as long as the economy stays weak they are not going to move around too much. Mostly likely they will hover between 4.5 and 5.5. Basically they can't fall too much considering they are already abnormally low. And as long as the economy stays down I don't see them rising too much.

But once the economy recovers most people expect that rates will rise. Some have speculated that rates could jump up to 12-15 percent. Basically so much money has been poured into the economy during the recession to stop things from getting worse. Normally that would cause inflation. But the weak economy has kept inflation in check. When the economy finally does recover the billions poured into the financial system by the government will lead to high inflation which will in turn lead to high mortgage rates.


Ki writes updates on mortgage rates. His site has information on Austin Tx real estate along with a tool that graphs mortgage interest rates.

Mortgage rates held even this week. For a recent history of rates we saw rates reach an all time low of 4.96 on January 15th. After that rates jumped up to 5.25 on February 5th. Since then rates have come down. 30 year rates are now at 5.07 so just a little above their previous lows. We have rates for the last 5 weeks listed below.

Feb 26, 2009
30-yr 5.07 15-yr 4.68 5-yr ARM 5.06 1-yr ARM 4.81

Feb 19, 2009
30-yr 5.04 15-yr 4.68 5-yr ARM 5.04 1-yr ARM 4.80

Feb 12, 2009
30-yr 5.16 15-yr 4.81 5-yr ARM 5.23 1-yr ARM 4.94

Feb 05, 2009
30-yr 5.25 15-yr 4.92 5-yr ARM 5.26 1-yr ARM 4.92

Jan 29, 2009
30-yr 5.10 15-yr 4.80 5-yr ARM 5.27 1-yr ARM 4.90


This is the first time we have seen the 5 year ARM fall below the 30 year rate. At this point there is no real reason to get the 5 year ARM or the 1 year ARM since they are not that much lower than the 30 year rate to justify the risk of being stuck with a balloon payment in 1 or 5 years when rates are probably going to be much higher than what we see today. The difference between the 30 year rate and the 15 year rate has grown which makes the 15 year rate more appealing. On January 29th the different was .3 points (5.10 for the 30 year and 4.80 for the 15 year rate). Today the difference is .39 (5.07 for the 30 year and 4.68 for the 15 year rate).

So the other big news with the mortgage industry is that banks are now allowing investors to have 10 loans. For a long time most banks limited investors to 4 loans. This drastically slowed down the investment market. Increasing the limit to 10 will probably allow the multifamily market to start moving a little faster as it has been one of the slowest segments of the market.

In addition, to rates we wanted to look at mortgage payments. We used our mortgage calculator to determine the monthly payments based on today's rates. We did the same thing with rates from February 19th and January 29th.

Feb 26
30-yr 1082.21
15-yr 1548.44
5-yr ARM 1080.98
1-yr ARM 1050.53

Jan 29
30-yr 1085.89
15-yr 1560.82
5-yr ARM 1106.88
1-yr ARM 1061.45

October 30th
30-yr 1258.87
15-yr 1708.31
5-yr ARM 1245.77
1-yr ARM 1120.56


All in all mortgage payments for the last month have been pretty steady. Back in October mortgage rates and payments where much higher.

Moving forward I expect mortgage rates to move up over the next two years. The main question is how long they will stay at their current levels.

Ki lives and works in Austin Texas. His site has a free search of the Austin MLS. He also has a mortgage interest rates widget on his website as well as a free mortgage calculator widget.

Historically speaking, the answer to the rent or buy question is that usually it's smarter to buy a house. These are not usual times. The true answer to that question, of course, depends on the individual situation. There are some factors to consider when making this important decision.

Some of the normal reasons to choose renting over buying a home include plans to relocate in the next couple of years or a low rent payment. But in the current economy, renting could make sense for a number of reasons. Renting gives financial flexibility, allowing people to save or invest. Other than deposits and the monthly rental payments, there is no large initial outlay of money. There are no maintenance costs and time does not need to be set aside for upkeep.

It is important to consider the costs inherent to buying a home, such as down payments, closing costs, interest, insurance, and upkeep. Suze Orman, a financial analyst for CNBC, points out that the American dream of home ownership can turn into a nightmare for those buyers that get in over their heads. The wave of foreclosures across the nation can attest to that reality.

The pitfalls of home ownership now include buying a home that may lose value, as well as the difficulty of getting a loan in the first place. According to the National Association of Realtors, existing home sales fell 8.6 percent in November. The median sales price fell 13.2 percent in November to $181,300, from $208,000 a year ago. That was the lowest national median price since February 2004. Which could mean it's a great time to buy, or it could mean home values will continue to fall.

Home ownership is more than about just a place to live, it is an investment. The portion of your monthly payment that goes toward principle ideally raises the equity in your home each month. These days the return on the investment all has to do with long-term plans and the economic outlook. But look at it this way, the rent money goes totally into someone else's pocket each month. There is a strong possibility that your home value will increase with time, especially if you plan to stay put for a number of years.

There are other benefits to buying a home, such as knowing your exact payment for the next 15 to 30 years, which can help with planning and budgets. Rent payments are likely to increase on an annual basis. There is also the potential to pay off the loan and have no monthly mortgage payment. There are the intangible benefits to consider as well, like pride in ownership and belonging to a community through being part of a neighborhood.

There is certainly no reason to rush into buying a home. In these uncertain economic times there may be good reason to be cautious. But there are also good reasons to be a buyer, such as historically low interest rates and lower home prices. Bankrate.com has a good calculator that can help crunch the numbers. If renting is what ends up being the best option, be sure to invest and save each month as well.


Ki's real estate business is based in Austin, Texas. His website provides future home buyers with a free search of the Austin MLS. It gives comprehensive information on Austin real estate a few free mortgage calculators for visitors.

Mortgage Interest Rates Historical Mortgage Rates

After several weeks of staying relatively flat mortgage interest rates jumped up this week. 30 Year mortgage went from 6.09 to 6.32. 15 Year Mortgage moved from 5.65 to 5.93. 5 Year rates went from 5.51 to 5.70. The only rate that was somewhat stable was 1 Year Arms which went up from 5.06 to 5.09. Two weeks ago we predicted that rates would increase over the summer and they seem to be doing exactly that.

June 12,2008
30-yr 6.32 15-yr 5.93 5-yr ARM 5.70 1-yr ARM 5.09

June 5,2008
30-yr 6.09 15-yr 5.65 5-yr ARM 5.51 1-yr ARM 5.06

May 29,2008
30-yr 6.08 15-yr 5.66 5-yr ARM 5.62 1-yr ARM 5.22

May 22,2008
30-yr 5.98 15-yr 5.55 5-yr ARM 5.61 1-yr ARM 5.24

May 15, 2008
30-yr 6.01 15-yr 5.60 5-yr ARM 5.57 1-yr ARM 5.18

May 8, 2008
30-yr 6.05 15-yr 5.60 5-yr ARM 5.67 1-yr ARM 5.29

Using out free mortgage calculator lets see what the rate increase mean for the payments on a 200k mortgage. We calculated out the mortgage payments based on today's mortgage interest rates and rates a week and a month ago.

June 12th
30-yr $1240.55
15-yr $1680.15
5-yr ARM $1160.80
1-yr ARM $1084.67

June 5th
30-yr $1210.69
15-yr $1650.11
5-yr ARM $1136.83
1-yr ARM $1080.98

May 8th, 2008
30-yr $1205.53
15-yr $1644.79
5-yr ARM $1157.00
1-yr ARM $1109.36

So for a 30 Year Mortgage on a 200k loan the mortgage payment went up about $30 or about 2.5 percent. The mortgage on a 15 Year mortgage also went up about $30. What is weird is rates on 1 Year ARMs stayed about the same and are actually down from a month ago. This makes no sense. Banks are dealing with foreclosures that are mostly coming from borrowers that got 5 and 1 Year ARMs. Basically when the ARMs reset borrowers are frequently unable to make the higher payments and wide up facing foreclosure. One would think banks would be discouraging these high risk loans. I would like to think the banks know something I don't. But looking at their foolish behavior over the last few years (giving loans to everyone that walked in the door from 2004-2006) its a distinct possibility they are just plain foolish. So again this week 1 Year ARMs look attractive. Just remember in a year your rate and mortgage could be higher so it would be wise to have some cash on the side to pay a potentially higher mortgage. And I would expect rates to be higher one year from today.

So what would I expect to happen over the rest of the summer. First off I don't see rates going down. The FED has given numerous signals they don't plan to lower rates. Will rates continue to go up? I am not sure. I expected rates to creep up over the next month instead of jumping up this month. So I hope rates stay relatively flat but they could go higher over the next month.

Escapeso Realty operates in the Austin real estate market. They work with investors interested in Austin commercial real estate and provide a search of the Austin MLS on their website.

Mortgage Interest Rates Mortgage Rate Trends

Rates on 15 and 30 Year Fixed loans were pretty much stable this week. Rates on 5 and 1 year ARMs both fell. With 1 Year ARMs falling from 5.22 to 5.06. This is the lowest 1 Year Arms have been since early March. Its a little wierd considering banks are losing a lot of money on ARMs from people going into foreclosure when their ARMs reset. So one would think that banks would be discouraging people from getting 5 and 1 year ARMs. But instead with a full point difference between 30 Year Fixed and One Year Arms they are doing exactly the opposite.

June 5,2008
30-yr 6.09 15-yr 5.65 5-yr ARM 5.51 1-yr ARM 5.06

May 29,2008
30-yr 6.08 15-yr 5.66 5-yr ARM 5.62 1-yr ARM 5.22

May 22,2008
30-yr 5.98 15-yr 5.55 5-yr ARM 5.61 1-yr ARM 5.24

May 15, 2008
30-yr 6.01 15-yr 5.60 5-yr ARM 5.57 1-yr ARM 5.18

May 8, 2008
30-yr 6.05 15-yr 5.60 5-yr ARM 5.67 1-yr ARM 5.29

May 1, 2008
30-yr 6.06 15-yr 5.59 5-yr ARM 5.73 1-yr ARM 5.29

Using our mortgage calculator lets run some numbers and look at what the rates would translate into today and a month ago.

June 5th
30-yr $1210.69
15-yr $1650.11
5-yr ARM $1136.83
1-yr ARM $1080.98

May 8th, 2008
30-yr $1205.53
15-yr $1711.46
5-yr ARM $1157
1-yr ARM $1109.36

A few weeks ago I wrote about how it made sense to get a 30 Year Fixed over a 5 Year ARM because there was not a big difference in the monthly mortgage payment you would be facing . As of today that is no longer true. On a 200k loan there is a $73.86 difference in the monthly mortgage payment between a 30 Year Fixed and a 5 Year ARM. I still don't like ARM's because your mortgage payment can reset when you are not ready for it. For instance I have heard stories of people losing their jobs a week before their mortgage interest rates resets to a higher number. But with the large difference in today's rates makes it hard to ignore the cost savings one would get with a 5 Year ARM. If you consider getting an ARM I would advise saving the difference of $73.86 a month and setting that aside for when the ARM resets. If you sell before your ARM resets you can just consider that savings a bonus.

Escapeso Realty is a small independent brokerage covering Austin Texas real estate. They have a graphical Austin MLS search and a blog with market updates on Austin real estate.

Real Estate buyers are usually highly focused on the purchase price of a property. This is a legitimate concern. The purchase price is one of the most important considerations in a real estate transaction. But at the same time home buyers too frequently treat interest rates as a secondary concern. Many buyers will stress over $300 or $400 in negotiations over purchase price. But when told that interest rates dropped half a point, home buyers will often respond with a shrug.

This is frequently because it is easy to understand the difference between paying 200k and 195k for a house. But it's harder to appreciate the difference between an interest rate of 6.5% and 6.0% for a house. But interest rates can have a large influence on mortgage payments. Using our mortgage calculator first let’s look at the difference between the mortgage on a 200k and the mortgage on a 195k house assuming a 6.5 percent interest rate.

200k (6.5%) Mortgage $1264.13 per month 195k (6.5%) Mortgage $1232.53 per month

The difference ends up being $31.60 a month.

Now let's look at the difference between an interest rate of 6.5% and 6.0% on a 200k house.

200k (6.5%) Mortgage 1264.13 per month
200k (6.0%) Mortgage 1199.10 per month

The difference ends up being $65.03 a month or $780.36 a year. A simple half point drop lowered the mortgage payment by 5.4 percent.

Interest rate changes are not that uncommon. We wrote a tool that graphs Mortgage rates over time based on the interest rates provided by Freddie Mac. In the middle of 2007 we saw interest rates of 6.7%. At the beginning of 2008, interest rates were down to 5.75%. What is a little more interesting is when we switch the toggle on our tool to showing the mortgage on a 200k house based on the interest rate for that date instead of the actual interest rates (Figure 1). From the middle of 2007 to the beginning of 2008, we saw a drop in the monthly mortgage on a 200k house drop from $1270 a month to $1170, a difference of 9.3 percent. This is why when buyers say they are waiting for prices to drop 5%, it might be a good idea to tell them that the actual mortgage they would get on a house has already dropped by more than 5 percent.

(Figure 1)

In light of all the mortgage issues over the last few years, it highlights why home buyers should shop around for interest rates. All too frequently home buyers will go with the first mortgage person they meet under the assumption that everyone has roughly the same rates and that a half point isn't really that big of a difference. As we have seen above, a half point can make a non trivial difference in mortgage someone pays.

To make matters worse for those buyers that don't shop around, some mortgage brokers over the last few years charged industry rates that were out of whack with what was standard at the time. If potential buyers had simply made a few calls they would have discovered the problem. But riding under the assumption that it wasn't worth their time to call around and that interest rates where just one of those mundane details they didn't really need to be concerned about, they ended up with interest rates substantially higher than what they should have been. If buyers had a better understanding of interest rates, it could have significantly cut down on mortgage fraud over the last few years.

In summary, home buyers should still focus on price because it will always be an important part of the real estate transaction. But if home buyers start to look at interest rates more closely, they will end up with more success in their real estate purchases and lower mortgage payments.

Ki is a realtor in Austin. His site has a free tool that graphs mortgage interest rates, that webmasters can incorporate into their site to keep visitors up to date on interest rates. He also wrote a real estate calculator webmasters can incorporate into their websites. Ki works with Escapeso Austin real estate.

There is a lot of talk about getting your first house. Its part of the American Dream to get a house and maybe get a dog named Rover. But maybe someone's first house should instead be a duplex. Why would I propose such a thing. Is it possible I am a secret russian spy that hates American pie. No their are simply to many advantages to buying a duplex first

Buying a duplex has a number of financial advantages over buying a house. Alot of people assume that in a particular neighborhood duplexes would sell for about twice of what a house sells for. This is rarely the case. Duplexes are more frequently about 1.5 times the price of a house in a given subdivision. So to pick an easy number if a house is selling for 100k then a duplex should be selling for 150k.

So lets compare the two. To keep things the same lets assume we have 20k to put down and we are looking in the Austin real estate market so that the taxes are .025 percent of the purchase price and insurance is .004 percent of the purchase price.

- Lower Monthly Payment

To start off with lets look at the house. For the house we are going to have a 6.5 percent interest rate. We can use this mortgage calculator

100k house price

20k down payment



Monthly Payment = $747.32

Moving on to the duplex. Since duplexes usually have higher interest rates we are going to assume a 7 percent interest rate. We are also going to assume that the other side of the duplex is being rented for $650.

150k duplex price

20k down payment

Monthly Payment = $1184.18

Rent Payment minus 5 percent vacancy = $617.50

Monthly Payment minus rent = $566.68

The monthly payment on the duplex comes out to be 31.8% less than on a house. You might get different numbers based on your area. In most areas a duplex leads to a lower monthly payment but there are a few real estate markets where the opposite is true.

- Increasing Your Future Real Estate Purchasing Power

Besides the advantages due to a lower mortgage payment there is another advantage over buying a duplex first. Buying a duplex first allows you to make additional purchases while buying a house first can negate your ability to buy additional properties.

To understand why this is the case we need to understand a few rules about how banks determine whether or not to provide loans. When you are purchasing your first investment property banks will usually not count the rent as income unless you have owned investment properties for over 2 years.

So if a buyer first buys a house and then wants to buy a fully rented duplex they will need to be able to qualify for the full price of the house and the duplex combined. This can be difficult for someone in the beginning stages of their career. If a buyer first purchases a duplex first in 2 years when they are looking for a house they can count the rent from the duplex as income which can help them qualify for the house purchase.

- Faster Payoff

Another interesting way to look at it is that if instead of simply spending the saving you incurred by owning a duplex if you were to pay off your mortgage faster. So if you applied 747.32 to your house it would take 30 years to payoff. But if you paid your duplex of $566.68 and then took the additional 180.64 and applied it to your mortgage you could pay off your duplex in 18.5 years. So in 18.5 years you would have a $150k duplex paid off instead of a $100k house partially paid off.

- Greater Benefits of Mortgage Payoff

Not only will you pay off your duplex faster but once you paid if off you will be in a better position. Once you pay off your house you are living mortgage free but not payment free. Based on the original assumptions (Austin Texas 2.5 percent tax rate and .4 insurance rate) you are still making a payment of 241.66 a month for taxes and insurance. In contrast once the duplex is paid off you are not only living in your duplex for free you are actually getting a profit of $255 a month.

Buying a duplex is not for everyone. Some people do not want the hassle of managing a property. And our article is not proposing that everyone should buy a duplex. We are simply showing the financial benefits of buying a duplex.

If you are looking to purchase a home or duplex in the Austin Real Estate market Ki can help you in your search. Ki is an Austin Realtor with a long history of helping clients purchase personal and investment properties. His website has a search of the Austin Homes.