The general arguments concerning the bailout have gone something along the lines of

"The taxpayers should not have to foot a 700 billion dollar bill to bail out Wall Street"

"But if taxpayers do not bail out Wall Street the economy will fall apart and those same taxpayers will be hurt"

If we could be sure the bailout would work the second argument has some merit. While the bailout will certainly help the banks, the problem is we have almost no guarantee the bailout will help the real estate market and the general economy.

First let's look at some recent history of how the Fed has tried to help the troubled real estate market. The Fed usually attempts to lower mortgage interest rates to help the real estate market. By lower mortgage rates houses become more attractive. In addition, with lower mortgage rates home buyers can buy more expensive houses with the same monthly payment. Therefore lower rates can help stop falling prices. So it was not surprising in early 2008 the Fed cut the Fed rate. In normal markets lowering the Fed rate helps banks and causes them to lower mortgage interest rates. And after the fed cuts mortgage rates for a period of time dropped to 5.50. If they had stayed down there we might have averted some of the problems with the current housing crisis. But instead a few weeks later rates had jumped backed up to 6.2. Basically banks said thanks for the lower fed rates but we are not going to alter our rates. In fact, over the next few months mortgage rates rose all the way to 6.6. The next big move was acquiring Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. This was one of the largest government takeovers in US history. The move was risky because the government was providing insurance for trillions in loans. And it initially had a positive effect on the housing market. But a few weeks later AIG ran into financial problems. It was almost as if the government takeover of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae never happened.

So the previous moves the federal government has made to stop the financial crisis have not worked. Should the 700 billion dollar bailout be different? It could certainly help the markets. But it might not. Lets look at why.

One of the benefits of the 700 billion dollar bailout has nothing to do with banks. It has more to do with perception on Main Street. The hope is that the bailout will restore confidence in the real estate market on Main Street.

In politics people often talk about news cycles covering up the last news cycle. Basically the last piece of news stays in people's minds until the next piece of news comes along. The Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac news cycle (and the billions the government will spend on it) only lasted until the next piece of news, which was about a week. While the 700 billion dollar bailout should restore some confidence into the real estate market, that confidence might only last until the next piece of news. And with things happening so quickly that news cycle might not last very long and given the current market the next piece of new is likely to be negative.

The other benefit of the 700 billion dollar bailout is that the government is hoping to influence banks to start lending again. The idea is that by taking billions in toxic loans off the books for banks they will start lending again. The problem is that their is no guarantee this will happen. In fact when the fed lowered rates banks said thanks but decided that prospects for the housing market looked negative and continued to add restrictions to lending. In a similar fashion banks could say thanks for the 700 billion but we continue to see negative prospects in the housing market and therefore we will continue to have strict lending practices. But thanks for the 700 billion taxpayers.

Escapeso real estate is a small brokerage in Austin Texas. Their realtors works with clients looking for Austin real estate. Their site offers a free search of the Austin MLS along with current mortgage interest rates.

So it has been a week since the feds came in and took over Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. While it will obviously take some time to know the long term repercussions I wanted to look at some of the immediate reactions to the move.

First let's look at the reaction from the media and the general public. One would expect there to be some political fallout from the largest takeover in government history. But because of the election and Hurricane Ike the reactions have largely been muted. There have been of course the expected positive reactions that this was a shrewd move to help the real estate market and negative reactions that the government should limit its involvement. But for the most part their has not been a big reaction one way or another. I have actually seen more stories about the reactions on the takeover from the presidential candidates than stories simply about the takeover.

While the media reaction has been muted the reactions in the financial markets have not been. Not surprisingly, the stocks of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac plummeted after the announcement. The government said before hand that the common shares of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae would lose most of their value in the event of a government takeover. So following the news of the takeover the share promptly lost 80% of their value.

The mortgage markets have reacted very favorably to the news. Considering the Fed has cut interest rates multiple times this year mortgage interest rates have remained relatively high. The reason for this was that banks were unsure about the financial stability of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae which provides insurance for about half of the residential loans issued in the United States. This risk has now been lowered since the government takeover. Consequently mortgage rates have plummeted in the last week. 30 Year mortgages have dropped from 6.35 to 5.93. This is after rates have moved down from 6.63 to 6.35 partially on expectations that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were going to be taken over. I have seen some reports that this is lowest rates have been in the last 4 months. I think this understates how low rates have come down. Besides two brief drops at the beginning of 2008 this is the lowest rates have been since 2005.

The lower interest rates should have a positive effect on the real estate market. Lower rates pull down the mortgage on a house and tend to have a positive effect on real estate values and market activity. In another positive sign although their has not been too much media coverage the coverage that has come out has been mostly positive. To be honest I was a little surprised by this. I would have expected the coverage to be a little more mixed. But regardless the favorable media reaction combined with lower interest rates should help the real estate market. And based on what I have heard from different realtors their does seem to be an upswing in activity. But we won't have any hard data on this for a month or so.

So, at least in the short term, it seems the Feds have accomplished their goals of helping the real estate market with the Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae takeover. We will of course have to wait over the next few years to see if this move turns out to be wise. But for now the Fed has finally been able to push down mortgage rates.

Ki is a real estate broker working in the Austin real estate market. He maintains a website with a Austin MLS search and a frequently updated Austin real estate blog.

So on Friday it was leaked that the government is taking over Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. On Sunday it was official. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have now been taken over by the federal government. But what does it mean for the real estate market, mortgage interest rates, and the US economy.

First let's look at what it means for mortgage rates. I would expect that the government takeover will result in lower mortgage rates, possibly a full point lower. Why? Basically the Fed has been struggling to lower mortgage rates for the last year in an attempt to assist the troubled real estate market. The Fed has lowered prime rates several times in an attempt to pull down mortgage interest rates, with mixed success. Now with full control of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (which provides insurance for most mortgages in the US) they will have much more control over the mortgage market and mortgage rates. As long as their objective stays the same, we can expect lower rates.

What does the takeover say about the current situation in the real estate market? This should have been obvious from all the events that preceded this but the takeover shows that the real estate market is in serious serious trouble. The federal government doesn't just take over large companies on a whim, especially an administration with a Republican president that believes strongly in free markets. This is not simply a government takeover. This is the largest takeover in US history. Basically the takeover happened because it was believed if nothing was done we were headed for economic catastrophe.

How is this going to effect the real estate market? Although the takeover is a bad sign about our current situation it should have a positive effect on the real estate markets moving forward. First lowering mortgage interest rates should be quite a boon for the real estate market. Lowering rates lowers the effective cost of a house. And historically lowering rates has a positive effect on real estate values.

Additionally, if the Fed is smart they will reduce some of the mortgage restrictions Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have created in the last year. While I would not like to see the mortgage market return to the free-wheeling lending of a few years ago, some of the current rules are bizarrely restrictive. The lending environment typically works like a pendulum moving from one extreme to another. Currently lending restrictions are not just stricter than what we saw during the real estate boom a few years ago but they are more restrictive than anything we have seen in the last 15 - 20 years. Hopefully a federally controlled Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can help return us to normal as far as lending restrictions.

Lastly the government takeover could put taxpayers in the lurch for billions in loan losses. In the short term the government is going to have to infuse money into Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. They have been losing money for quite some time and that is not going to change overnight. If the market improves over the next year or two, which was likely before, and the takeover improves the outlook for the real estate market, the government will have to infuse maybe a total of 20 to 30 billion into Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to get them back to financial solvency. That sounds like a lot but to put the number in context, the cost of the Iraq War has been running at about 100 billion a year for the last 7 years. So a 20 billion dollar expense is an unpleasant but manageable expense. But if real estate market gets a lot worse over the next two years, I can't think of the adjective to describe how expensive things could get.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac provide insurance for 5 trillion in loans or about half of the residential loans in the United States. Because of the takeover, the federal government now provides insurance for 5 trillion in loans. If we are just on the cusp of severe real estate problem that means that the federal government is on the hook for 5 trillion in loans. That's more than double the entire federal budget for 2007 and 10 times what the US has spent on the Iraq War. So as taxpayers we should hope things improve soon because if the rate of foreclosures skyrockets over the next 2 or 3 years, we are basically going to be paying for it.

Does this mean the federal government is insane? It depends on how you look at the issue. This was certainly a risky move. But on the other hand allowing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to fail would have devastated the US economy and likely lead to a severe depression. So doing nothing was equally risky. And while taking over Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae was a risky move for taxpayers, in a depression those that keep their jobs have to make up for all the lost tax revenues for the large number of people that lose their jobs. So in summary the federal government found itself in a tight spot and decided to bet the farm they can fix the real estate market and for our sakes, let's hope they are right.

Ki lives and works in central Texas. He provides a search of the Austin MLS on his site along with current information on the Austin real estate market. His site also provides a tool that show current trends for mortgage interest rates.

Mortgage interest rates moved down again this week. This marks the fifth week in a row where 30 Year mortgage rates have either fallen or held steady. This is of course good news for people looking to buy a house. This is also good news for the real estate market. A few weeks ago a weakened real estate market was dealing with additional burden of some of the highest mortgage rates we have seen in a year [mortgage rates graph]. Below are the mortgage rates for the major mortgage products for the last few months. As we can see while the 30 Year rate has fallen both the 5 year and the 1 year arm have for the most part held steady. This brings the difference between the 30 Year rate and the 5 year and 1 year arm back to roughly normal levels. The 15 year mortgage rate has been falling as well over the last month but not as much as the 30 year rate.

August 28,2008
30-yr 6.40 15-yr 5.93 5-yr ARM 6.03 1-yr ARM 5.33

August 21,2008
30-yr 6.47 15-yr 6.00 5-yr ARM 5.99 1-yr ARM 5.29

August 14,2008
30-yr 6.52 15-yr 6.07 5-yr ARM 6.02 1-yr ARM 5.18

August 7,2008
30-yr 6.52 15-yr 6.10 5-yr ARM 6.05 1-yr ARM 5.22

July 31,2008
30-yr 6.52 15-yr 6.07 5-yr ARM 6.07 1-yr ARM 5.27

While 30 mortgage rates have fallen they are still above what we saw a few months ago when mortgage rates where hovering around 6.0. So while mortgage rates are relatively high I still think this is a pretty good sign. Why? Basically mortgage rates have fallen in spite of the fact that recently the FED has decided not to lower rates. Does this mean that banks are feeling better about handing out mortgages? I would not go that far. If anything I would think that rates rose suddenly a month ago and simply overshot. And now they are simply reacting to that original large increase by moving down a bit. So let's look at what the mortgage rates mean for an actual mortgage. Using our mortgage calculator let's run through the numbers based on a 200k mortgage. We looked at what a mortgage would be this week plus a week and a month ago.

August 28th
30-yr $1251.01
15-yr $1680.15
5-yr ARM $1202.96
1-yr ARM $1114.33

August 21st
30-yr $1260.19
15-yr $1687.71
5-yr ARM $1197.81
1-yr ARM $1109.36

July 24th
30-yr $1281.28
15-yr $1707.22
5-yr ARM $1219.75
1-yr ARM $1134.32
So what is going to happen over the next few months? It's always hard to predict but here is my guess. I think rates will hold steady or fall a bit over the next two months. I am expecting rates to come down a bit after the election. Of course a lot could happen between now and then. If the market runs into more problems I would expect rates to increase. Why? The Fed has their hands tied behind the back they cannot lower the Fed rate too many more times.

Escapeso Austin Real Estate provides information on mortgage rates. They have a graph of historical mortgage rates along with a free mortgage calculator and a mortgage interest rates widget.

Mortgage Interest Rates Mortgage Rates Widget

Mortgage interest rates moved down slightly this week. This was a good sign since it was not preceded by any rate cuts from the FED. The 30 year mortgage rate fell from 6.52 to 6.47 and the 15 year mortgage rate fell from 6.07 to 6.00. For arms the 5 year rate fell from 6.02 to 5.99. The 1 year arm was the only one of the 4 rates to increase going from 5.18 to 5.29. If anything the mortgage rates are not more in align with each other. Over the past few weeks the difference between the 1 year arm and the other rates has seemed larger than normal.

To put this weeks changes in context of what has happened over this summer mortgage rates are still quite a bit higher than earlier. For the 30 Year mortgage on May 22 rates fell to 5.98. Then by July 24 rates raised to 6.63. So rates have fallen since then but we are still quite a bit higher than the rates we saw in May. Below are mortgage rates for the last few weeks.

August 21,2008
30-yr 6.47 15-yr 6.00 5-yr ARM 5.99 1-yr ARM 5.29

August 14,2008
30-yr 6.52 15-yr 6.07 5-yr ARM 6.02 1-yr ARM 5.18

August 7,2008
30-yr 6.52 15-yr 6.1 5-yr ARM 6.05 1-yr ARM 5.22

July 31,2008
30-yr 6.52 15-yr 6.07 5-yr ARM 6.07 1-yr ARM 5.27

July 24,2008
30-yr 6.63 15-yr 6.18 5-yr ARM 6.16 1-yr ARM 5.49

So let's see what these mortgage rates would mean for an actual mortgage payment. We ran today's mortgage rates through our free mortgage calculator for a 200k loan. We also looked at what the payments would have been on the same mortgage a week and a month ago.

August 21st
30-yr $1260.19
15-yr $1687.71
5-yr ARM $1197.81
1-yr ARM $1109.36

August 14th
30-yr $1266.76
15-yr $1695.28
5-yr ARM $1201.67
1-yr ARM $1095.75

July 24th
30-yr $1281.28
15-yr $1707.22
5-yr ARM $1219.75
1-yr ARM $1134.32

So what else is going on in the mortgage industry. First it looks like the government might take over Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. A few months ago it was made clear that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae would be protected while other smaller banks would be allowed to fail. Now with Freddie and Fannie running into serious financial problems (Freddie Mac stock has sank from 65.88 to 4.75). Oddly enough one of the problems Freddie Mac faces is that because the US government has made it clear Freddie Mac is too large to fall, investors are hesitant to give funds to Freddie Mac under the assumption that their investment will not be repaid following a government takeover.

So what will happen following the government takeover of Freddie Mac. Personally I think it will be positive. Over the last several months Freddie Mac has created a pretty large list of loans they will not provide backing for. This has hurt the ability of people to get loans and in turn has been one of the negative factors dragging down the national real estate market. If the government takes over Freddie Mac a lot of these restrictions will probably be pulled back. So while it won't magically cure all the problems with the national real estate market it will alleviate at least one of the negative factors weighting it down.

Ki works as a realtor in the central Austin real estate market. His site provides a search of the Austin MLS and a free mortgage calculator along with general information for buyers about Austin real estate.

For the second week in a row 30 year mortgage rates held steady at 6.52. 15 year mortgages last week moved from 6.07 to 6.1. The week they returned to 6.07. So basically the fixed rates are holding steady. 5 Year Arms fell from 6.05 to 6.02 and 1 Year Arms fell from 5.22 to 5.18. So they didn't move that much. But what is interesting is the overall trend. This week marks the 3rd week in a row that both 5 and 1 year arms have fallen. The 1 year arm has fallen from 5.49 to 5.18. This continues an overall trend of the difference between 30 Year Fixed mortgages and 1 Year growing. On May 1st 30 Year Arms were at 6.06 and 1 Year Arms were at 5.29. Mortgage rates since then have risen up to 6.52 while 1 Year arms have fallen to 5.18. The question of course is why banks are making arms (the mortgage product that is partly responsible for the high rate of foreclosures) more attractive. And I don't have an answer on that. Below are the mortgage rates for the last few weeks.

August 14,2008
30-yr 6.52 15-yr 6.07 5-yr ARM 6.02 1-yr ARM 5.18

August 7,2008
30-yr 6.52 15-yr 6.1 5-yr ARM 6.05 1-yr ARM 5.22

July 31,2008
30-yr 6.52 15-yr 6.07 5-yr ARM 6.07 1-yr ARM 5.27

July 24,2008
30-yr 6.63 15-yr 6.18 5-yr ARM 6.16 1-yr ARM 5.49

July 17,2008
30-yr 6.26 15-yr 5.78 5-yr ARM 5.80 1-yr ARM 5.10

As always I like to translate the mortgage rates into an actual mortgage payment. So using our free mortgage calculator below are what today's rates would translate into for a 200k mortgage. I also run the numbers based on what mortgage rates were at on May 1st.

August 14th
30-yr $1266.76
15-yr $1695.28
5-yr ARM $1201.67
1-yr ARM $1095.75

May 1st, 2008
30-yr $1206.82
15-yr $1643.73
5-yr ARM $1164.60
1-yr ARM $1085.89

On the one hand in general I am against arms. They are generally dangerous so I don't like to recommend them. But with such a wide gap between arms and traditional mortgages they are hard to ignore. If you do get an arm I would be prepared for your mortgage to jump substantially. For the most part I would consider an arm if you had enough money in savings to pay off the property if rates jumped up dramatically over the year.

The other factor to consider when getting a mortgage is credit scores. While for the first half of 2007 all one had to do to get a mortgage was show up at a bank over the last years banks have gotten a lot tighter. Additionally, interest rates now more than ever are tied to ones credit score. So if you are planning on buying a house sometime in the near future its a good idea to figure out what your credit score is now to make sure there are no outstanding debts or problems you need to fix.

Escapeso Realty provides current information on mortgage interest rates on their site. They also provide a free mortgage calculator and a mortgage rates widget.

Mortgage interest rates were virtually unchanged this week. The 30 Year rate stayed even at 6.52. The 15 year rate moved up a little from 6.07 to 6.10 and the 5 year arm moved down from 6.07 to 6.05. The only rate that moved much was the one year are which fell from 5.27 to 5.22. The one year Arm had the biggest fall last week as well. So in total for the last two weeks the 1 year arm has fallen from 5.49 to 5.22 while the other 3 major mortgage products have not fallen more than .11. Why the one year ARM is looking so good is another question. A high percent of the foreclosures the country is currently dealing with are from ARM based mortgages. So it seems odd to encourage ARMs when they are partially responsible with the current mess we are in. Of course the people in charge of the various mortgage companies didn't lose billions in shareholder wealth in just two years by making prudent decisions. So who knows what their current strategy is. Here are mortgage interest rates for the major mortgage products for the last few weeks.

August 7,2008
30-yr 6.52 15-yr 6.10 5-yr ARM 6.05 1-yr ARM 5.22

July 31,2008
30-yr 6.52 15-yr 6.07 5-yr ARM 6.07 1-yr ARM 5.27

July 24,2008
30-yr 6.63 15-yr 6.18 5-yr ARM 6.16 1-yr ARM 5.49

July 17,2008
30-yr 6.26 15-yr 5.78 5-yr ARM 5.80 1-yr ARM 5.10

July 10,2008
30-yr 6.37 15-yr 5.91 5-yr ARM 5.82 1-yr ARM 5.17


As always what do all these crazy numbers mean. To put these numbers in perspective lets see what these rates translate into for a mortgage on a 200k house.

August 7th
30-yr $1266.76
15-yr $1698.53
5-yr ARM $1205.53
1-yr ARM $1100.69

July 31th
30-yr $1266.76
15-yr $1695.28
5-yr ARM $1208.11
1-yr ARM $1106.88

July 24th
30-yr $1281.28
15-yr $1707.22
5-yr ARM $1219.75
1-yr ARM $1134.32


On the one hand I am usually pretty against ARMs. But a difference of 166.07 a month is pretty hard to ignore. If you are thinking of getting a 1 Year ARM this my advice. 1) Make sure you have 12 months of mortgage payments in a liquid account. 2) Watch the rates over the next year and wait for rates to come down a bit. If they don't come down and instead come up make sure you can afford to refinance at a higher rate. 3) this should be obvious from point one and two but if you are getting a 1 Year Arm dont get anywhere near your maximum loan amount. So if you are approved for a 300k loan it might be ok to get a 1 Year ARM if you are buying a house that is 150k-200k. If you are approved for a 300k loan and get a house for 280k get a 30 Year loan its simply not worth the risk. With an ARM your mortgage rate will simply start to flucuate after a year unlike a balloon where you are forced to refinance.

Escapeso Realty is a small brokerage in Austin Texas. Their site provides updated graphs on mortgage interest rates. They provide a free mortgage calculator along with a mortgage rates widget

Before we talk about what happened with mortgage rates this week lets do a quick recap of what happened last week. Last week mortgage interest rates made a sudden jump over the previous week. For the entire month of June and July 30 year mortgage interest rates fluctuated from 6.09 to 6.45. Then last week 30 year mortgage rates jumped from 6.26 to 6.63. At the time we predicted that rates would probably fall this week because usually after big spikes there is a bit of correction. We saw exactly that with all four of the major mortgage products falling, but not back to their levels from two weeks ago. 30 Year rates from 6.63 to 6.52. The only mortgage product to fall substantially this week was the 1 Year ARM. Last week the 1 Year rate rose from 5.10 to 5.49. This week the 1 Year mortgage rate lost most of that gain falling to 5.27. Below are rates for the major mortgage products for the last month.

July 31, 2008
30-yr 6.52 15-yr 6.07 5-yr ARM 6.07 1-yr ARM 5.27

July 24, 2008
30-yr 6.63 15-yr 6.18 5-yr ARM 6.16 1-yr ARM 5.49

July 17, 2008
30-yr 6.26 15-yr 5.78 5-yr ARM 5.80 1-yr ARM 5.10

July 10, 2008
30-yr 6.37 15-yr 5.91 5-yr ARM 5.82 1-yr ARM 5.17

July 3, 2008
30-yr 6.35 15-yr 5.92 5-yr ARM 5.78 1-yr ARM 5.17

Ok so mortgage interest rates tell part of the story. But how does this translate into a mortgage payment. Using our free mortgage calculator lets translate the mortgage interest rates over the last few weeks into a mortgage payment for a 200k loan.

July 31th, 2008
30-yr $1266.76
15-yr $1695.28
5-yr ARM $1208.11
1-yr ARM $1106.88

July 24th, 2008
30-yr $1281.28
15-yr $1707.22
5-yr ARM $1219.75
1-yr ARM $1134.32

July 17th, 2008
30-yr $1232.73
15-yr $1664.03
5-yr ARM $1173.5
1-yr ARM $1085.89

So it looks like for now rates are still relatively high. The only mortgage product that remains relatively low is the 1 year mortgage rate. Comparing it to the 30 Year mortgage rate at 6.52 the 1 Year mortgage rate is 5.27. For a 200k mortgage the mortgage payment with a 30 Year loan would be 1266.76. For a 1 Year Arm the mortgage payment would be 1106.88 or about 12.6% less. The only problem with 1 Year ARM's is that their is no guarantee mortgage rates will be less in one year. And with all the volatility in the mortgage markets right now they could be somewhat higher.

Ki works in Austin Texas as a realtor. His website provides information on mortgage interest rates along with a free mortgage calculator. Their is also graphs that show historical mortgage interest rates

After falling for most of the month of July Mortgage interest rates jumped up. And not only did they move up they jumped to the highest levels we have seen in 2008. 30 Year rates jumped from 6.26 to 6.63 last week. To put that in perspective for the entire month of May mortgage rates fluctuated between 5.98 to 6.08. The increases were not confined to 30 Year rates, 15 year rates went from 5.78 to 6.18, 5 Year Arms went from 5.80 to 6.16 and 1 Year Arms went from 5.10 to 5.49. The interest rates we saw this week for all the major 4 mortgage products were the highest numbers we have seen for all of 2008. When was the last time we saw mortgage rates this high? I looked back through 2007 to find the last time we saw rates this high for the different mortgage products.

30 year - August 2 , 2007
15 Year - August 16, 2007
5 Year - September 20, 2007
1 Year - December 27, 2008

Below are mortgage rates for the last few weeks.

July 24,2008
30-yr 6.63 15-yr 6.18 5-yr ARM 6.16 1-yr ARM 5.49

July 17,2008
30-yr 6.26 15-yr 5.78 5-yr ARM 5.80 1-yr ARM 5.10

July 10,2008
30-yr 6.37 15-yr 5.91 5-yr ARM 5.82 1-yr ARM 5.17

July 3,2008
30-yr 6.35 15-yr 5.92 5-yr ARM 5.78 1-yr ARM 5.17

June 26,2008
30-yr 6.45 15-yr 6.04 5-yr ARM 5.99 1-yr ARM 5.27

Ok so mortgage rates are one thing. But what does this mean for an actual mortgage. using our free mortgage calculator and pulling a number out of a hat we looked at how these rate increases would affect a 200k mortgage.

July 24th
30-yr $1281.28
15-yr $1707.22
5-yr ARM $1219.75
1-yr ARM $1134.32

July 17th
30-yr $1232.73
15-yr $1664.03
5-yr ARM $1173.5
1-yr ARM $1085.89

So starting off the monthly payment on a 200k mortgage with 30 Year loan would be $48.55 more this week compared to last (1232.73 to 1281.28). A 15 Year mortgage would have increased $43.19, a 5 year mortgage increased $46.25, and a 1 year mortgage would have increased $48.43.

So why have rates risen so dramatically. A few bank closures have probably caused some uncertainty in the market. Additionally the FED spent the early part of the year trying to keep rates down and basically ignoring the risk of inflation. That has changed as inflation signs have started to crop up. So now the FED is worried more about the risk of inflation.

So usually when one mortgage product rises I advise potential home buyers to look at the other mortgage products. But this week all the mortgage products rose more or less equally. Therefore my advice would be to start looking at putting down more cash. With interest rates moving up near 7 it might be a good idea to evaluate other investments and consider putting a large down payment on a house. If you are thinking of buying a house in the next few months its probably a good idea to start paying more attention to savings.

So what is going to happen next week? Usually after we see a sudden large increase or decrease the next week we see rates move a little bit in the opposite direction. But what happens with mortgage interest rates over the next week and the next few months to a large extent is going to be based on what happens with the banks and the mortgage industry and at this point with all the turmoil in the markets its a little hard to predict what is going to happen next.

Ki provides updated information on mortgage interest rates along with a mortgage interest rates widget. His site also provides a free mortgage calculator.

For the second week in a row mortgage rates have fallen. For those that don't read my updates regularly I wanted to give a short background on what rates have been doing. From the end of April to the beginning of June 30 year mortgage rates hovered around 6 percent. Then during the month of June 30 year mortgage interest rates rose peaking out at 6.45 at the end of June. But since then rates have fallen through the month of July ot 6.26. So we are not down to 6 but rates have come down quite a bit from their recent high. Its also interesting rates have fallen although the FED has cut the Fed Funds rate or the discount rate since April 30th. Below are mortage interest rates for the major mortgage products for the last 5 weeks.

July 17,2008
30-yr 6.26 15-yr 5.78 5-yr ARM 5.80 1-yr ARM 5.10

July 10,2008
30-yr 6.37 15-yr 5.91 5-yr ARM 5.82 1-yr ARM 5.17

July 3,2008
30-yr 6.35 15-yr 5.92 5-yr ARM 5.78 1-yr ARM 5.17

June 26,2008
30-yr 6.45 15-yr 6.04 5-yr ARM 5.99 1-yr ARM 5.27

June 19,2008
30-yr 6.42 15-yr 6.02 5-yr ARM 5.89 1-yr ARM 5.19

Mortgage rates are nice to look at but what do these mortgage rates flucatuations mean for a mortgage. Using our free mortgage calculator we can run the numbers and see how these mortgage rate changes would affect the mortgage on a 200k loan.

July 17th
30-yr $1232.73
15-yr $1664.03
5-yr ARM $1173.5
1-yr ARM $1085.89

June 26th
30-yr $1257.56
15-yr $1692.03
5-yr ARM $1197.81
1-yr ARM $1106.88

June 5th
30-yr $1210.69
15-yr $1650.11
5-yr ARM $1136.83
1-yr ARM $1080.98

For a 30 Year mortgage on June 5th the monthly mortgage payment would have been $1210.69. Three week later on June 26th a mortgage on the same amount would have risen 4% to $1257.56. Now another 3 weeks the mortgage payment has fallen 2% to $1232.73

The other major change occuring with mortgages is that banks are becoming more selective in giving out mortgages. We have noticed over the last month that more restrictions from lenders have been coming into play. So although mortgage rates are relatively low it has become more difficult to get a loan. Over the last few years lenders would give a loan to anyone that could walk in the door this has changed over the last year. This is why potential home buyers should start paying more attention to their credit scores. Also lenders are expecting larger downpayments. Lenders are also cracking down on investment loans. The biggest change has been that most lenders are not allowing borrowers to get more than 4 investment loans. This has essentially stopped many investors from purchasing new properties.

So what do we expect to happen in the future. The general feeling among mortgage brokers is that lenders are unlikely to return to the free wheeling style we saw in 2006. But at the same time its likely that the current extreme restrictions in lending might ease up some over the next six months.

Ki is a real estate agent in Austin. His website has current information on mortgage interest rates. Along with a free mortgage calculator and information on historical mortgage interest rates

So what has been going on in the world of finance and mortgages? Certainly the biggest news was the fall of IndyMac. Last week we heard that IndyMac had stopped giving out new mortgage loans and was going to concentrate on simply servicing the existing loans in its portfolio. Apparently this was due to the fact that regulators felt that IndyMac was not adequately capitalized.

Many experts speculated that the days of IndyMac were numbered and might not last the year. They were right and not only did they not make it through the year they didn't even survive the rest of the week. On Friday it was announced that IndyMac was seized by US banking regulators. This was preceded by a rush on the bank by panicked depositors. The insurance fund currently has around 53 billion so the failure of IndyMac should be a significant drain of the insurance fund. The failure of the bank should cost the government insurance fund between 4 to 8 billion.

Moving on what is going on with mortgage rates this month. After rates rose through the month of June rates have fallen off in the first 2 weeks of July. This is good news because the rates feel in spite of the FED choosing not to lower rates at their last meeting. Rates on all the major mortgage products (30 Year, 15 Year, 5 Year and 1 Year) from the week of June 26 to July 3. Then rates for the most part held steady from July 3rd to July 10th. Rates fell the most on 5 Year Arms.

Its interesting to note that the spread between 5 Year Arms and 30 Year fixed notes has increased over the last month making 5 Year Arms more attractive. Below are the rates for the major mortgage products for the last few weeks.

July 10, 2008
30-yr 6.37 15-yr 5.91 5-yr ARM 5.82 1-yr ARM 5.17

July 3,2008
30-yr 6.35 15-yr 5.92 5-yr ARM 5.78 1-yr ARM 5.17

June 26,2008
30-yr 6.45 15-yr 6.04 5-yr ARM 5.99 1-yr ARM 5.27

June 19,2008
30-yr 6.42 15-yr 6.02 5-yr ARM 5.89 1-yr ARM 5.19

June 12,2008
30-yr 6.32 15-yr 5.93 5-yr ARM 5.70 1-yr ARM 5.09

June 5,2008
30-yr 6.09 15-yr 5.65 5-yr ARM 5.51 1-yr ARM 5.06

Moving on lets look at mortgage payments. I like to translate mortgage interest rates into how they would affect a mortgage payment because at the end of the day that is what we are dealing with. So breaking out our free mortgage calculator lets see what these rates mean for a mortgage on a 200k house.

July 10th
30-yr $1247.08
15-yr $1678
5-yr ARM $1176.05
1-yr ARM $1094.51

July 3rd
30-yr $1244.47
15-yr $1679.08
5-yr ARM $1170.96
1-yr ARM $1094.51

June 5th
30-yr $1210.69
15-yr $1650.11
5-yr ARM $1136.83
1-yr ARM $1080.98

So what do we see happening over the next few months. At the beginning of the summer we felt rates would rise because the FED decided to stop cutting rates. Rates rose for a month and then recently have held steady and then felt a bit. Moving forward I don’t have a clear idea what will happen with rates. I would have thought rates might fallen but with the fall of IndyMac the mortgage industry does not seem to be stabilizing so its uncertain what will happen with rates over the next month.

Ki works in Austin. His site is filled with information about mortgage interest rates along with providing a free mortgage rates widget and a free mortgage calculator.

Mortgage Interest Rates Widget Mortgage Rate Trends

After rising drastically last week fixed mortgage interest rates moved up slightly this week. 30 Year notes moved from 6.42 to 6.45 and 15 Year notes moved from 6.02 to 6.04. ARMS on the other hand rose a decent amount. 5 Year Arms rose from 5.89 to 5.99 while 1 Year Arms rose from 5.19 to 5.27. Below are mortgage rates for the last few weeks.

June 26,2008
30-yr 6.45 15-yr 6.04 5-yr ARM 5.99 1-yr ARM 5.27

June 19,2008
30-yr 6.42 15-yr 6.02 5-yr ARM 5.89 1-yr ARM 5.19

June 12,2008
30-yr 6.32 15-yr 5.93 5-yr ARM 5.70 1-yr ARM 5.09

June 5,2008
30-yr 6.09 15-yr 5.65 5-yr ARM 5.51 1-yr ARM 5.06

May 29,2008
30-yr 6.08 15-yr 5.66 5-yr ARM 5.62 1-yr ARM 5.22

May 22,2008
30-yr 5.98 15-yr 5.55 5-yr ARM 5.61 1-yr ARM 5.24

Using our free mortgage calculator lets run the numbers on a 200k loan based on todays rates. We also put in what the mortgage would be a week and a month ago.

June 26th
30-yr $1257.56
15-yr $1692.03
5-yr ARM $1197.81
1-yr ARM $1106.88

June 19th
30-yr $1253.6
15-yr $1689.87
5-yr ARM $1184.99
1-yr ARM $1096.98

May 29th
30-yr $1209.4
15-yr $1651.19
5-yr ARM $1150.68
1-yr ARM $1100.69

So looking at the numbers above one would have saved almost $50 by getting a 30 Year loan a month ago compared to today. In contrast a mortgage on a 1 Year Arm has remained relatively constant. Why Banks would want to promote 1 Year Arms is anyones guess. Based on the other recent decisions by banks it would not be a bad assumption to assume banks have no idea what they are doing this point.

At this point getting a 5 Year Loan doesnt really seem worth it compared to getting a 30 Year loan since the cost savings is not that high (5%). On the other hand if you plan on keeping the property for a short period of time a 1 Year loan seems attractive considering the cost savings(12%).

Ki lives in Austin. His website has information on Austin real estate along with search of the Austin MLS and market stats on his Austin real estate blog.

In recent months, the US real estate market has seen its fair share of turbulent weather as house prices continue to fall. While the Federal Reserve has taken significant steps towards making lending cheaper, interest rates remain artificially high as the troubled financial sector continues record write-downs. So far, only a quarter of the IMF-estimated $1 trillion in sub-prime losses have been reported, which means mortgages won't be affordable for a long while, even if homes continue to decline in value. According to the Case Schiller house price index, which covers 20 major metropolitan areas, house prices are depressing at an annual rate of 12.7%, though its rate of descent is accelerating. As long as homeowners continue to lose equity, loans will become increasingly difficult to obtain.

As this feedback loop works itself out, a regionally dependent phenomenon has begun to emerge. Although home prices averagely dropped in the US the story doesn't end there. Despite lowered economic growth forecasts and commodity-related inflationary pressures, (which are felt much more diffusely throughout the economy) several metropolitan areas have remained more robust, which explains dissenting votes on the past two rate cuts by the regional Fed chairs from Dallas and Philadelphia, respectively. Part of their reasoning is based on working against what they view as a misconception about the scope of the Fed's powers among many investors; namely, that the central bank is the only agent responsible for assisting challenged markets. Political jockeying has and will continue to play a role in their decisions, especially in the charged climate of an election year, but their dissenting votes represent the resilience of many areas of the US that continue to experience growth. From Charlottesville, North Carolina to Austin, Texas, many metropolitan areas continue to develop quickly, seemingly insulated from much of the speculation and predatory lending that has defined tracts of the US. While some of the worst affected markets in the Southwest like Phoenix, Arizona and Las Vegas will take considerable time to rebound, some price correction was inevitable. This is partially due to property value spirals in recent years, without corresponding increases in infrastructure and demand. In markets where growth had already been steady, home prices have been relatively stable.

If the federal government steps in further to freeze or help re-negotiate more of the estimated two million sub-prime mortgages projected to default over the course of 2008, prices may stabilize more quickly. Politicians, closing ranks in a show of solidarity, will likely be reluctant to make bipartisan efforts a priority while the presidential race remains in the limelight, which makes investment in the near and medium term likely to be more profitable, both in markets where prices have overcorrected and in stable markets. This is because any government-based mortgage interest rates freeze may be less favorable than current rates, which are firmly negative. Moreover, refinancing remains available should climates change. In any case, the worst may not be over for a lot of America, but some places have weathered the past eight months relatively unscathed.

Escapesomewhere Real Estate is a small brokerage working in the Austin real estate market. They host a free search of the Austin MLS along with providing updated commentary on their Austin real estate blog.

Mortgage interest rates remained relatively unchanged for the second week in a row.

Mortgage Interest Rates Historical Mortgage Rates

(to post the above widget on your site go to
www.escapesomewhere.com/rates.html)

April 10th, 2008
30-yr 5.88 15-yr 5.42% 5-yr ARM 5.56 1-yr ARM 5.19

April 3rd, 2008
30-yr 5.88 15-yr 5.42% 5-yr ARM 5.59 1-yr ARM 5.18

March 27th, 2008
30-yr 5.85 15-yr 5.34% 5-yr ARM 5.67 1-yr ARM 5.24

So what is going on? The FED has been attempting to stimulate the economy by cutting the FED Funds rate. But the first few times the fed cut rates in 2008 banks did not respond by lowering mortgage interest rates. Since this is one of the main tools the FED uses to influence the economy and mortgage rates this was a cause for concern. If the FED losing its influence over mortgage rates would be another negative factor weighing on an already weakened economy. In the beginning of March their were some pronouncements from analysts that we should expect more FED rate cuts but we should not expect to see lower mortgage rates.

But then after the latest fed cut on March 18th mortgage rates fell from 6.13 to 5.87. So what has happened since then? Basically, in the absence of further rate cuts by the FED, mortgage rates have remained relatively constant. In the midst of lots of bad news for the national real estate market this is actually a good sign that banks are apparently happy with the spread between the fed rate and mortgage rates. Hopefully future fed cuts (and it seems apparent at this point the fed will continue to cut rates) will result in lower mortgage rates.

Ki works as a realtor in Austin. He runs a site about Austin real estate which provides a free search of the Austin MLS and a free mortgage calculator.

It started off simply enough. I had been updating site by hand to keep mortgage rates up to date. So I wanted to create a widget that would automatically update my website with current mortgage rates. Sounds easy enough right? But once I got started I just kept going. As long as I was putting in 30 year mortgages why not put in 15 year and 5 year and 1 year arms. I mean as long as I was doing it.

Then I discovered I could graph rates. How cool was that!



Not very cool according to my wife. And every new instance of "oh look at this" was meeted with "I thought you were finished with that last weekend". Anyway once I discovered I could graph rates why not create a tool so I could look at historical mortgage rates then I could look at rates back until the 1970's. Sweet. I mean it wouldn't take that much longer? Right? Ok well maybe it did take that much longer. But it was kind of cool. And then as long as I had a tool why not put in toggles so you could look at mortgage rates over the last few years but you could also switch the graph to see what the mortgage would be on a 200k loan for the last few years. I mean thats kind of interesting?

About this time I had realized this was all getting kind of ridiculous. And my wife was kind of doing ok considering I was ignoring her for a mortgage rate graph but I wash kind of pushing my luck.

So anyway now I have a little widget on my homepage that automatically updates each week with current mortgage rates. So to justify my time if any Active Rain members want a widget on their page with updated mortgage rates I wrote a page here Mortgage interest rates that gives details on how to install it on your site.

Ki is an Austin realtor. He helps buyers interested in Austin real estate and provides a free search of the Austin MLS along with information on his Austin real estate blog

On March 14th, Bear Stearns, the fifth-largest investment bank in the United States, entered a period of insolvency. As growing lack of confidence in the firm's subprime exposure grew, other banks eventually refused to lend to the stricken company, which has existed for over 85 years. Were Bear Stearns a commercial bank, (i.e. institutions that loan money to people or businesses) it would be able to, as a last resort, take advantage of the Federal Reserve's so-called "discount window," thus receiving a government loan at the lowest available interest rate. The reasoning behind making loans to private businesses is sound, because overall confidence in banks is much stronger. But for equally obvious reasons, the discount window cannot by definition extend to institutions that take on risk as their business because they have less or no accountability to taxpayers.

However, after Bear Stearns seemed on the brink of collapse, everything changed. Bear Stearns shares began to falter as investors took flight. The Federal Reserve took decisive action to save the beleaguered bank by guaranteeing a $30 billion loan to their biggest competitor, JPMorgan Chase, so they could buy BS without fear of acquiring more dangerous subprime mortgage-related debt. In effect the government has now bought a troubled investment bank for pennies on the dollar, (their first offer was $2 a share, when BS traded at a high of $170 a year ago) knowing that taxpayers might have to foot the entire bill themselves. At the same time, the Bush administration has maintained that no government bailouts would extend to the financial sector. Moreover, wealthy BS shareholders balked so much at the firesale of their investments that the Fed, under pressure from potential litigation, increased the bid for BS by five times, to $10 a share. This means that, while the potential losses will be felt by millions of taxpayers (many of whom are in danger of losing their homes to foreclosure), while profits will most certainly be reaped by the corporate executives at JPMorgan.

Even with its exceptional exposure to subprime securities, BS is still worth well over a billion dollars. Profit-taking was the name of the game on the heels of the announcement, as day traders bought up huge amounts of BS stock at $2 or $3 a share and sold after the bid increased. By taking responsibility for the BS takeover, the Fed has changed the course of America's financial future. By guaranteeing the discount rate to BS, they implicitly must be able to do so for other investment banks in trouble in the future, which implies continued taxpayer absorption of Wall Street failures without any corresponding kickback from banks. Unless the Fed intend to rein in on banks more as the economy struggles through the recession, this policy clearly demonstrates a dramatically different view of finance than the Federal Reserve of 1913, when there was a real discount window you could use to keep your bank alive. Now, it seems, the most secure economically secure institutions are those most separated from average American lives. Politicians who recognize the increasing resonance of populist messages in the present climate are sure to turn this takeover into a major issue.

Ki works and lives in Austin Texas. As a realtor he helps investors interested in Austin real estate. His site provides a search of the Austin MLS for visitors along with a Austin real estate blog to keep people up to date on the market.

In the past when the Federal Reserve cut the discount rate it translated into lower mortgage interest rates for home buyers. This was a convenient way for the Federal Reserve to stimulate the economy during economic slowdowns. By making it easier for people to get loans more cash was pushed into the economy.

But the recent discount rate cuts have failed to have a similar effect. In fact the spread between mortgage interest rates and the discount rate is the greatest in 20 years. Although the Fed has cut rates 3 time in 2008, going from 4.25 to 2.25, if we look at a mortgage rates graph over the same time period we have failed to see much of a change. Two explanations have been put forth to explain why our current situation differs from what we have seen in the past. The first explanation is that the banks are facing almost 200 billion in losses from their misplaced bets on subprime mortgages, and are sticking with high interest rates to offset some of these losses. The other explanation is that banks still see a downside in the real estate market and are attempting to limit their exposure.

Considering that the mortgage industry is comprised of 1000's of people I doubt either of the views is completely accurate. Additionally, considered how short sighted the mortgage industry was in their foolish bets on subprime mortgages during the boom time I think partially the mortgage industry is simply reacting. During the boom time the mortgage industry reacted by competing with each other to create more and more bizarre loan products to allow people with poor credit to receive loans, in order to gain market share. Now that the real estate market is doing poorly the mortgage industry is spooked and is reacting by limiting access to loans.

Is there a light at the end of this tunnel? It's hard to tell. The latest Fed cut from 3 to 2.25 received a positive response from the market as interest rates fell from 6.13 to 5.87 the following week. But its anyone's guess of whether this is a temporary blip or a sign that the mortgage industry is comfortable with the current spread between mortgage interest rates and the Fed's discount rate. If the later is the case future rate cuts should have a more favorable affect on pushing down mortgage rates. While this won't cure the current woes in the real estate market it should help alleviate some of the problems.

One thing that does seem more likely is that if the real estate market continues to suffer the Fed will continue to cut rates. The current Fed Ben Bernanke chairman gave a speech before the subprime crisis detailing out how the Fed failed to respond strongly enough during the events which led to the great depression and seems determined to not make the same mistakes. In fact, in an unprecedented move the Fed injected over 200 billion in the credit markets last week its clear the Fed is committed to doing whatever it can to cure the credit/mortgage crisis. If the banks start reacting to the rate cuts the Fed might be able to succeed in their mission to take a stronger role in preventing an economic recession.

Ki is a realtor in Austin and runs a site with information about Austin Tx real estate. He also wrote a mortgage rates html for websites to keep visitors up to date on mortgage rates trends along with a free mortgage calculator

As the sub-prime mortgage crisis continues to unfold, new figures emerge from the Mortgage Banker's Association: A record .83. That means that, in three months, almost one out of one hundred homeowners have been foreclosed on. Because of America's size and diverse population, the statistics are somewhat skewed: In many places like Austin, Texas and New England, growth remains steady and house prices remain strong. However, in placed like Cleveland, Ohio and other pockets throughout the Midwest, foreclosures are much higher. One in every three mortgages has defaulted recently in these smaller, white-collar towns due in large part to predatory lending, as well as increasing energy costs.

But the other half of the subprime crisis plays out on Wall Street. As investment banks like big player Bear Stearns fail and the credit crisis remains, markets are pinched for investors in sub-prime securities, which have worked their way into the larger economy through such complex financial instruments as Structured Investment Vehicles, or SIVS. These entities don't consist of money per se, but "commercial paper," and therefore aren't reflected on a balance sheet, making them difficult to track.

As the Federal Reserve continues to slash discount rates, mortgage interest rates remains stubbornly above historical levels, meaning that credit is not available to banks in quantities that can allow cheaper home loans. By hoarding cash, banks are less likely to spook investors or lose needed capital. But by doing so, they exacerbate the problem, leaving central banks responsible for massive injections of liquidity to keep the cogs moving. In addition, the Fed has taken the unprecedented step of offering its "discount window" to investment banks in addition to commercial ones. Such behavior represents a fundamental break in policy for both the central bank and the president. There may be good reason for them getting their hands dirty. The extent of this credit crunch has been recently compared to the Great Depression, painfully reminding America of its most desperate moments.

Faced with the twin serpent of financial market volatility and increasing consumer pressure, it is no wonder investors are reeling. As the economy has cooled, oil prices have maintained record highs, peaking above $110 a barrel. While crude futures have reflected speculation more than lack of supply, recent falls suggest that investors may be recognizing a slow in oil demand. This also reverses the dollar's lurching fall, thus absorbing some lost profits to oil-producing countries, who peg their currency to the dollar. However, this reflects the exception rather than the rule.

In general, this cycle is self-reinforcing until a new equilibrium is reached, which cannot happen until the full extent of sub-prime exposure is known. This factor depends on the number of foreclosures on sub-prime borrowers, a mechanism for resolving both the individual defaults (necessarily a lengthy process) and subsequently assessing the potential devaluation of all its reinvested components. Until then, the economy remains like a proverbial deer in headlights, unable to understand how much risk it has taken on but running out of time.

Ki helps buyers and sellers navigate the Austin Texas real estate market. His web site has a free search for Austin Homes along with information on Austin Foreclosures