The headlines this month have been taken by the most insidious of America's vices: black gold. Oil futures are now projected to exceed $100 a barrel until 2016, and continue to sit comfortably near the $115-120 a barrel mark. Many different causes have been blamed for rising prices at the pump, ranging from massive speculation to supply instability in some oil-producing nations. However, one factor must surely be worrisome to most every American: oil companies haven't been getting enough of the stuff out of the ground.

Exxon Mobil's $11 billion quarterly profit disappointed Wall Street and investors alike, their shares falling 4 percent on May 1st. The largest oil company in the US has seen stagnant margins in most quarters since 2005 without being able to increase production. In fact, their overall production fell 10 percent. Demand in the US has also contracted 2 percent since the beginning of the credit crunch last summer, so Exxon's profits have been reaped in large part because of increasing price pressure on consumers, many of whom have looking to Congress for some relief. They may be looking for a while, as representatives have been less than forthcoming on bipartisan measures since they passed the economic stimulus package into law in February.

The two Democratic candidates running for President have sharply contrasted on how to address record oil inflation. Both Democratic Senator Hillary Clinton and Republican Senator John McCain have endorsed the idea of temporarily removing the federal gas tax over the summer months. Their reasoning is that consumers will feel the pinch of driving costs most over the summer, which means some offset in price would be more appreciated. However, there is no guarantee that the tax break will reach consumer directly, as many other secondary industries besides the oil companies price their profits into gasoline. Senator Barack Obama has also criticized the two candidates, stating that they were "reading from the same political playbook." However, he hasn't offered forth an alternative.

It is therefore difficult to project how difficult it will be for hard-hit US consumers in the near term, much less come November. Ethanol conversion and use is another issue that will continue to influence price inflation, as greater demand for alternative fuels increases. Many economists already believe that the globe has reached peak oil, or the zenith of possible oil production. This means that energy will only become scarcer and more expensive, and the 18.5 cent federal gas tax will only be the tip of the iceberg when it comes to government intervention. Oil prices aren't going down by much even if such a tax break is implemented, primarily because demand from developing countries like China and India continues to grow. Indeed, their combined oil consumption outpaced that of the US for the first time in 2007. Some type of initiative between oil-producing nations will eventually have to be made to move towards more sustainable levels of consumption, but growing divisive political sentiments make it unlikely for anything major to happen until someone new is in the Oval Office.

Escapeso Real Estate helps investors looking for Austin real estate. Their site provides a free graphical search of the Austin MLS along with information on current mortgage interest rates.

I usually write about real estate. But every so often I like to throw in something completely different. So now for something different

Two months ago the Democrats were looking at numerous positive signals for their chances in the November election. First the polls of a generic Democrat versus a generic Republican showed Democrats leading by a spread of over 10 points. The leader of the Democratic field, Barack Obama, enjoyed a substantial lead over the presumptive Republican nominee John McCain.

To make matters better for the Democrats the Republicans were going through an ideological schism. The conservative wing of the Republican Party was split over two nominees Huckabee and Romney allowing for a moderate, John McCain, to take control of the primary. And the right wing of the Republican Party was uneasy with John McCain over his moderate political views and a perception that he thumbed his nose at the party on occasion. Uneasy might be an understatement considering Republican voice pieces like Rush Limbaugh were issuing almost daily attacks on McCain who had all but wrapped up the nomination.

On the opposite side of the aisle Democrats for the most part seemed relatively happy with their two choices of Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton. Their were some in the party that talked of a dream ticket with Barack and Hillary running as president and vice president the only question was who would be at the top of the ticket.

Fast forward a few months. John McCain has secured the nomination. While the conservatives have not fallen in love with John McCain the heated exchanges have lessoned. On the other hand the contest between the former Democratic dream team of Clinton and Obama has turned into a bare knuckle fight. While pleasantries still exist they are simply the occasion respite from an increasing acrimonious fight. To make matters worse the primary fight is increasing drawn along race, gender and income lines. Women and poorer Democrats are going with Clinton. More affluent democrats and African Americans are siding with Barack. Many woman feel Obama is a johnny come lately smooth talking guy that is stealing the title role from a woman that has worked long and hard. Which in some cases parallel feelings they have about what has happened to them in the workplace in real life.

On the other hand suggestions by people in the Clinton campaign that Obama has gotten a free ride because of his race has certainly turned off many potential voters. Also if Clinton wins the nomination its likely she will do so by winning more superdelgates but losing in the race for delegates that are elected by popular election. Leading democratic primary voters to feel they elected Obama but the party elite ignored their voice and put Clinton into the driver’s seat instead. In addition, there are problems with two states that will play an important part in the general election, Michigan and Florida. The Democratic Party is not counting their primary results because they violated rules and held their elections early. Now the primary is so close some voters in those states feel that their votes are being ignored. All of this is to say that many voters in the Democratic primary election might not go with the eventual nominee either because they might have hard feelings against the party or the eventual nominee.

To make matters worse the two candidates are ripping each other to shreds and providing sound bites and lines of attack for the Republicans to use in the general election. In fact we are already seeing this reflected in the polls. The CNN Poll conducted on 2/1/08 had Obama leading McCain 52 to 44. The CNN Poll conducted on 3/14/2008 had Obama leading 47 to 46. All of this has happened while Clinton and Obama are spending money hand over foot and McCain is quietly raising money.

So what should the Democratic Party do to stop the bleeding? First they need to hold rehold primaries in Florida and Michigan. Howard Dean has said they need to save money for the general election. But if the primaries are not held they risk annoying voters in two states that will have very important roles in the 2008 general election. Second the super delegates need to switch to Obama and end the primary. This is not to endorse the policies or leadership ability of either candidate. But simply that at this point its very unlikely Clinton can win the primary. Although Obama lead is not huge at this late stage its probably insurmountable. Even though Clinton has more super delegates she needs to win 58.8 percent of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination while Obama only needs to win 43.5 of the remaining delegates. Adding to the fact that Obama has won more delegates in 13 of the last 15 contests. Otherwise the Democratic Party will keep damaging itself before the general election.

Escapeso Realty is a small realty company helping buyers and sellers in Austin real estate market. Their website provides monthly real estate statistics on their Austin Real Estate Blog along with a free search of the Austin MLS.

Recent elections have rarely been as heated as the '08 race for the Democratic nomination between freshman Illinois Senator Barack Obama and New York Senator Hillary Clinton. From the televised bickering of their national debates to the recent jabs over NAFTA, the fight has hung on tiny margins several times throughout their respective campaigns. March 4 was a significant day for the primary candidates because Hillary Clinton managed to, for at least the second time, defy the odds and win the key states of Ohio and Texas, taking the less important Rhode Island to boot. While Barack Obama still holds the lead in overall delegates, Hillary found out about the election results in Ohio in time to have an evening press conference in time for the news, which enabled her to capitalize on a phenomenon that has generally been directed at her opponent: momentum. In a speech more reminiscent of Obama's previously engaging "message of change" than of her own stump, Clinton played her underdog card better than she ever has before. As far as rhetoric goes, Obama has long held the advantage, relying on his emotional appeal to rally confidence. Yet his tone was somewhat subdued and mathematical at his victory party in San Antonio, as he repeated the facts on how the numbers are on his side, and that his delegate lead will still be hard for Clinton to beat. The tables were turned, albeit briefly, despite Obama's momentous winning streak of 11 states in a row and the national attention that has focused on his campaign as a result. Americans are increasingly focusing on the issues where the candidates have differing stances, as much of their literature shows their platforms to be about 90% the same, with healthcare and the economy emerging as the most important in recent days. Ohio voters have blamed the North American Free Trade Agreement as being responsible for outsourcing jobs to foreign countries, and its creation by Bill Clinton in the early 90's has proven a complicated feat for Hillary to spin. Stating that she has always thought that NAFTA was fundamentally flawed, Clinton has recently gone on the offensive after one of Obama's staff members allegedly told a Canadian foreign minister that the agreement wouldn't be renegotiated under his administration. Even if the remark was offhand, or not meant to represent Obama's true stance, as he has stated in recent days, neither candidate would likely have much leeway in regard to the agreement because of how generally beneficial it is to America's consistent oil supplies, which would be the biggest bargaining chip in Canada's pile. Since Canada is required to provide oil to the US whenever there is a perceived danger of deficit, they would be able to use this leverage. Since both candidates are mostly paying lip service to populist sentiment, the real question is: Who will be able to turn this into a nomination? Ohio and Texas have both complicated matters for Obama, who now has a tough campaign in front of him, and the Democratic Party as a whole, which will surely be weakened by a united Republican attack. Ki works as a real estate agent in Austin. His website covers the Austin real estate market along with providing a graphical search of the Austin MLS and updates on the state of the market on his Austin real estate blog.

The Presidential candidates for the 2008 election are setting records for primary voter turnout and, especially in the Democratic wing, trying hard to differentiate themselves to discouraged voters with a myriad of sound-byte barrages. Whether the Democratic candidate chosen to run for President is Illinois Senator Barack Obama or New York Senator Hillary Clinton, we have before us a race that has been characterized by clashes over issues ranging from Iraq to the faltering economy, with recent heavy emphasis on the latter. As early as two months ago, Americans were content to let the candidates duke it out on a variety of issues without undue pressure towards any particular topic. However, as the Republican race began to break down last month (and the Democratic candidates began to look more like a room of yes-men on many issues like health care and the Iraq war), the field has narrowed and so has the focus. A potent combination of plummeting consumer confidence, high commodity prices, and a continual influx of bad news from various financial sectors is partially responsible. But Americans have also realized that, in many respects, Obama and Clinton appear to have very similar economic platforms. And since both candidates limit their specific economic goals to sporadic attempts to win over blue-collar workers on the stump by accentuating populist sentiment, their promises about job protection for American workers are starting to sound less like the free-trade advocates they once were. Indeed, protectionism is on the rise, and deservedly so. While rising exports have offset gloom somewhat, the data is clear: Americans aren't competing. Outsourcing overseas has damaged wage growth in the US since the the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was signed, while of course providing an entrance into the global economy for many countries. In the boom of the 90's this seemed like an appropriate way to economize and help develop poorer nations. But without the strong job security of that heyday, there is less of an impetus to share the wealth. Ironically, the boom in consumer spending that preceded the recent downturn helped fuel the present fire because, while US consumers spent more than ever before during the late 90's and early 2000's, everyone else was saving (and investing that savings in American companies). Now that the bubble has collapsed, and politicians have been lax in using that time of prosperity to shore up safety nets for workers. Now that President Bush's tax rebate has been signed, by May some results should start to emerge on its potential effect, which is expected to boost shaky consumer confidence and spending temporarily. But sooner, in the months ahead, expect the presidential candidates (whoever they are) to begin talking more about job loss, wage caps, and other downsides to globalized industries. Polls show Americans as generally willing to pay more if they know it guarantees jobs. That alone is enough to warrant some change-ups on the stump, but whether it will materialize into changes in NAFTA or the breakdown of some of the gains (or inroads, depending on who you talk to) of globalization is up in the air for now. Voters won't let the candidates of the hook that easily. Escapeso Realty operates a website covering the Austin Texas real estate market. Its provides a free mortgage calculator for buyers to user along with a search for Austin Homes.