It is hard to believe just two years ago in October the Dow Jones industrial set a record high of 14,164. According to the Associated Press, just one year after that it was at 8,451 in mid October 2008. Today the Dow is around 9,800. Stocks have rallied recently on signs that retail sales are improving. The last two years have been a bumpy ride.

The AP recently broke down the economic numbers, putting into perspective just where the U.S. economy stands today. "The panic of last fall has been replaced by the resignation that the worst is over but it might be years before the economy booms again." It seems for every gain there is something else to put in the loss column. For example, while the stock market is steadily gaining ground, the total losses in the stock market from the peak of October 2007 to the bottom of March 2009 was a mind-boggling $11.2 trillion.

A positive sign is that after steadily declining for fourteen months, retail sales increased 2.7 percent in August. But the unemployment rate in October 2008 was 6.2 percent and today it is 9.8 percent. Consumer confidence, which is measured on a scale of 1 to 100, was at a record low of 25.3 last October and this month it is 53.1. To put these numbers in perspective, two years ago consumer confidence stood at 95.2.

Some oddly positive side effects of the Great Recession have been the increase in personal savings rate from 0.5 percent in 2005, when home prices were soaring, to 6.9 percent in May 2009. Also, credit card debt held by Americans last September was a staggering $975 billion. That number is down 8 percent now to $899 billion.

To put the housing numbers in perspective, 2005 was a record year with 7 million home resales. January 2009 the annual rate of home resales was 4.5 million, but rose to 5.1 million in August. On the other hand, the median price of homes sold in 2006 was a record high $245,000. The median price of homes sold last October was $213,000 and dipped to $195,000 in August.

Some other signs of the time: Starbucks launched an instant coffee product in September. PepsiCo Inc announced recently that it will continue to offer and develop products with price in mind, feeling customers will continue to be price-conscious even after the recession ends. Retailers will need to stay creative to entice shoppers this holiday season amid rising unemployment. Wall Street may be seeing a smoother path to recovery, but it's still a bumpy ride on Main Street.


Ki works in Austin real estate. He works to help buyers find the perfect property. His website provides general information on Austin real estate. It also allows buyers to search for homes in the Austin MLS along with providing a free mortgage calculator.

The recent headlines have trumpeted a rebound in the American housing market. According to the Associated Press, July's 7.2 percent increase in home sales was the biggest month-to-month jump in the last ten years. But before breathing a sigh of relief and checking Zillow for increased home values, it might be a good idea to look at the story behind the new and improved numbers.

A big chunk of the recent increase is first-time home buyers taking advantage of the tax credit. One third of recent home sales are due to the $8000 incentive for first-time home buyers, which will end in November. Another third of the recent sales across the nation are actually foreclosures. According to a recent report on NBC news, home prices overall are down 23 percent in the last year, largely due to the number of foreclosures across the country.

NBC news broke down the numbers even further, showing that the biggest surge in home sales are for homes under $100,000. While sales of homes in this price range rose an impressive 39 percent in the last month, sales for homes over $250,000 are actually down. In fact, the higher the price tag the fewer homes are selling.

Better numbers in several sectors of the economy, including housing, have led Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to announce that the U.S. economy is on the verge of recovery. He said at a Federal Reserve conference in Wyoming that "the prospects for a return to growth in the near term appear good." Not a resounding endorsement of the world economy, but certainly keeping to the more positive tone he has taken lately.

According the Associated Press, Bernanke continues to stress the importance of freeing up consumer credit, stating this is the key to any kind of long term economic recovery. However, banks continue to be careful with lending to consumers. Mortgage defaults remain at an all time high--which brings us back to the housing numbers. While foreclosures continue to less of a factor in Austin as they are in other parts of the country, they are taking a toll on the economy as a whole.

As the latest housing numbers have indicated, foreclosures are great for bargain hunters but bad for the housing sector and the overall economy. It only takes one foreclosure in a neighborhood to skew the assessment of overall home values in that area. Mortgage defaults that lead to foreclosures cost banks a significant amount of money. The banks in turn raise rates on credit cards and fees to recoup some of these losses, along with making fewer loans overall.

The real estate industry is lobbying Congress to get an extension on the first-time buyers' tax credit, because many industry analysts are predicting a plunge in the housing numbers after November. "I would not be at all surprised to see a dip at the end of the year once the tax credit expires," Robert Dye, senior economist with PNC Financial Services Group, told the AP.

Austin continues to weather this long recession better than the rest of the country, but let's hope the story behind the national numbers gets better.


Ki moved to Austin for school. After graduation, he started working in the Austin real estate market. He has a website where future owners can search the Austin MLS. His website also has a blog with updates in Austin Texas real estate.

Is the recession near the end? Is the American economy on its way to recovery? The answer is probably yes. That's good news, right? Not so fast, say some economic analysts. And they mean, literally, that the stock market may be rebounding a little too quickly.

According to a recent report at Yahoo Finance, the stock market's rally in recent months is a bit of a mixed blessing. The hope that the economy is on the rebound "has lifted the Standard & Poor's 500 index, a benchmark for many investments like mutual funds, an enormous 39 percent from a 12-year low on March 9. Those kinds of gains might normally take four years to materialize."

Both being too quick to call it a recovery and not cautious enough in investing could cause this budding economic upturn to wither on the vine. The numbers remain mixed, with the number of job losses in the month of May are down, but unemployment is up. While the government's report of 345,000 jobs lost is the lowest since September, the actual unemployment rate is 9.4 percent. This indicates that although less people are being laid off, it is still very tough to find a job out there. In fact, the overall number of job seekers rose as college graduates flood the job markets.

Even Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has said, even once the economy begins to recover, jobs will be the last sector to rebound. But there are still other troubling signs out there. Recent Commerce Department data shows that May retail sales were mixed, but in general analysts were surprised that more shoppers hadn't returned to stores. Wall Street may be throwing caution to wind, but Main Street seems to be holding onto their cash, with the savings rate up again last month.

One of the biggest downfalls of overzealous investing is that investors are helping push interest rates higher. According to Yahoo, investors have been selling off Treasury bills because they feel they are no longer in need of the safety of government debt. This causes mortgage rates and other kinds of loans for consumers to rise. Interest rates are still historically low, but they have been creeping up in the last few weeks. As the interest rates goes up, borrowing is falling off. The Federal Reserve reported last week that consumer borrowing in April fell by twice as much as analysts had been expecting.

The latest results of the AP's Economic Stress Index, which tracks the economic strains in 3100 counties across the country, show that many areas of the country are struggling more than they were a year ago.
"The AP calculates a score from 1 to 100 based on each county's rate of unemployment, foreclosure and bankruptcy, with lower numbers indicating less economic pain. The average Stress score dipped to 9.7 in April, from 10.3 in March. In April 2008, the national average was 5.9."

So while most indications show improvement in the economy in the first part of 2009, a slow, steady recovery is more likely to help this nation that has been stressed in so many ways over the last year and a half. After all, exuberant investing is what got us into this mess in the first place.


Ki lives and works in Austin and has worked in the Austin real estate market for 10 years. He maintains a search of Austin MLS on his website. It also has general information on Austin real estate and current mortgage rates