As a consumer it's got to feel a little confusing right now, trying to figure out what's going on in the real estate market.  If you're trying to decide whether now is the time to buy or sell there are a host of opinions coming at you, and new news stories every day about the latest in real estate.

I thought today I'd try and summarize some of what's out there and see if I can make any sense of it all.

I can't tell you whether we're at the bottom of this slump. What I can tell you is that, unlike some areas of the country, we've already seen some pretty significant price cuts. Yes, there are still overpriced listings out there. (There are always, in every market, overpriced listings!) But people who are serious about needing to sell their homes are getting it.

What I suspect is that we're going to see the number of homes on the market stay fairly flat for a couple of months and then spike significantly again in the spring. I don't think we'll see enough sales between now and then to compensate. That means, at the very least, no price appreciation any time soon.

If you're buying and are comfortable you can stay put for five years, I'd suggest going ahead and buying. If you're looking at a more short term situation, perhaps a transfer in a year or two, you may be better off waiting.

From a selling perspective, I think things will be flat for at least the next year. And, I think we're a couple of years away from seeing any price increases at all. So, if you're not willing to wait more than two years, you might want to sell now.

The other big question in all this is what will happen with interest rates. Right now I wouldn't bet on them going any lower. There still appears to be plenty of worry about inflation out there. As long as that persists don't count on lower interest rates.

And, in the background is all the noise about government and private plans to help with the subprime mess. Most of that will be too little too late to ease much of the pain. At best, it provides a little cushion and keeps things from getting any worse. The efforts on all those fronts may, finally, have given us a bottom. And, for that, we can be grateful!