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Piedmont Real Estate Blog

Blog by Julie Emery
Amissville, Virginia

An ongoing dialog on real estate news, opinion and trends in Northern Virginia and the greater Piedmont area. Julie is an Associate Broker at Century 21 New Millennium, 5451 Old Alexandria Turnpike, Warrenton, VA 20187

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Piedmont Real Estate Blog

The Statistic I Can't Get!

May. 3, 2007
Categorized in: Local Market Conditions

If you've been paying any attention here at all, you know I like numbers and analysis when trying to get a real picture of what's going on in the market. Know those numbers and add some intuition and gut instincts and you've got a good basis for understanding market trends and directions.

But the one number I can't get and consistently long for is the number of showings in the last week/month/year. Right now all I've got is anecdotal evidence, polling my fellow agents.

What I'm really after is a number that gives me an earlier picture of market direction. Mortgage applications does that to some extent, but those numbers are typically at a national level and don't give us a true local picture.

When showings increase consistently over time, odds are we're seeing a corner being turned. Or maybe we're just seeing a short term improvement. But if you're a seller, you'll take all the good news you can get right now!

What are the rest of you, professionals and consumers doing to get a feel for this piece of the overall housing market picture?

Buy Low! Sell High!

Apr. 27, 2007
Categorized in: Local Market Conditions

By now you've all heard that the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new high this week. The media covered this in great detail and one of the interviews I heard with a stockbroker was very interesting. They asked what effect this news had on the average investor. They wondered whether hearing that the DJIA had reached the lofty 13,000 mark would make people want to sell. The stockbroker said that, in fact, just the opposite was true for the average investor. It made them want to buy! He went on to talk about how most investors make buying and selling decisions primarily on the basis of fear and/or greed.

And so it is in the housing market! As the average buyer hides and worries, I'm seeing more inquiries daily from investors. They get the "buy low, sell high" philosophy. Investors tend to take a longer term view. One gentleman told me this week that when there was a TV show just about flipping houses it was perfectly clear that it was time to sell! How right he is!

The people who make the money, whether it's in real estate or in the stock market, tend to be the people who don't follow the herd. I've known this at an intellectual level for years. But it's been interesting to see it in action it he past few years!

One day the market will turn into a seller's market again. And all the people who listened to everyone telling them to be very afraid to buy will be scrambling to get something as prices start to climb. And all the investors who bought when they had lots of negotiating leverage will be sitting back and smiling!