Am I the only one who thinks that there's a problem with the vast majority of new business coming into Culpeper and Fauquier counties being retail?

Where are the businesses that will employ people who could actually afford to live here, buy homes here?

Why the focus on minimum wage employers?

How about some businesses that could employ locals and save them from commuting into Northern Virginia or DC?

Maybe there are secret negotiations going on to do just this. Or, maybe our elected officials have tried and failed. Or, maybe this is the normal pattern of growth and retail always comes before commercial/industrial jobs.

But I need to be convinced that there's a sensible plan here!

Any of you know something I don't?

I occasionally take some grief for not being optimistic enough about the real estate market. The grief never comes from buyers or sellers! It comes from other real estate professionals. And when they say I'm not optimistic enough what I hear is they'd like me to be blindly enthusiastic about everyone's prospects in every market.

I'm not here as a cheerleader! I'm here as professional, sharing my expertise! Whether you're a buyer or a seller, you need to know the truth in order to make wise decisions. You definitely do not need a cheerleader.

I read a blog today that set me off. In it the husband and wife team talk about how they always tell all buyers it's a great time to buy! That's ludicrous!

I had a military family contact me last year about buying in this area. As military folks often do, they move often. There was a strong possibility that they would be in their home for less than two years. There's no way I can advise a family in that situation that now is a great time to buy! I strongly recommended that they rent and that we watch the market closely to see how things would change in the next year. I still believe that was the best advice I could have given them.

If someone is telling you this is a great time to sell your house and there's more inventory available in your neighborhood than there has been at any time in the last 20 years, you should question what facts they're using to reach that conclusion.

Sometimes it's a great time to buy. Sometimes it's a great time to sell. It's fairly rare for it to be a great time to do both!

By the way, for those of you who want me to be more optimistic...

If you're looking to buy and you're going to stay in your new home for more than three years, it's a great time to buy!

Two of the largest home builders in the nation addressed their shareholders this week. Obviously the state of the housing market is very, very important to them and they keep a close eye on things. So there is generally something to be learned from what they say.

Usually you have to start by filtering out the spin, but that wasn't the case with D R Horton's CEO, Donald Tomnitz. He said the market will "suck" in 2007. No spin there! Mr. Tomnitz' biggest concern is the tremendous amount of inventory still sitting out there.

His counterpart at Toll Brothers was much more optimistic, however. Robert Toll noted that in the last five weeks contract cancellations have dropped from 36% to 16%. He hopes Toll Brothers can burn off most of its excess inventory within five months if this trend continues.

Now, neither of these predictions is ridiculously rosy. So no one should assume that the spring market is going to make everything sell like crazy again. But it is interesting that Robert Toll now talks about the market "approaching" bottom since six months ago he said it had hit bottom. It's also interesting that Robert Toll's brother, Bruce, has sold $47 million dollars in the company stock since September. He certainly doesn't seem to believe a turn around is right around the corner!

I'll put a little asterisk on all of this with another warning that all real estate is local. But both Toll Brothers and D R Horton do business in this area.  And the greater DC market definitely figured into the predictions they provided.

My own prediction is that 2007 will be, once again, a bumpy ride!

There is a lawsuit going on in Minnesota. The suit alleges that a real estate company and its agents directed clients to use a particular settlement firm without disclosing that other settlement companies had lower fees. The real estate company in question had a relationship with this settlement company and the agents whose clients used this company also received their commission checks more quickly.

I don't have all the facts in this case so I won't be judging what's true or not in this instance.

But it seems like a good opportunity to discuss how settlement companies are chosen.

First you should know that real estate firms and settlement companies alike are bound by something called RESPA (Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act). This act mandates that consumers receive disclosures detailing things like relationships between companies and also says that kickbacks are illegal! If you want more information on RESPA, HUD has a good site with detailed information.

Every client or potential client gets, early on, the RESPA form detailing all the relationships my brokerage has with other affiliated companies. I give them time to look through the list. If I know at that point in time that I'm going to be recommending a particular vendor on that list, I let them know. I also let them know that the choices are always entire theirs and that I receive no incentive to steer them one way or another.

When I'm sitting down to discuss settlement with a client I ask them if they have a settlement company they'd like to use. 99% of the time the answer is no. Since typically the only experience consumers have with settlement companies is when they close on a real estate transaction and since settlement companies typically don't nurture those relationships with buyers and sellers over time, most consumers have no idea who the settlement companies are.

If my clients don't know a settlement company or don't have a specific preference. I will give recommendations. Those recommendations are based on my knowledge of the companies and how they do their job. The most important consideration to me is that the transaction moves smoothly to settlement and that there are no unpleasant last minute surprises for my clients.

When I have a client for whom I know every penny is precious and could mean the difference between getting the house or not getting the house, I work diligently to choose the best settlement company with the lowest costs. Sometimes settlement companies will offer discounts or coupons and that's a great time to make use of those.

The bottom line is that consumers always have choices. It is a real estate agent's responsibility to disclose everything! It is also the consumer's responsibility to read the mountain of paperwork that they get. Neither agent or consumer should be let off the hook for not doing their part in this!

A CMA is a Comparable Market Analysis. I've also seen it called Competitive Market Analysis. Regardless of how you define it, it's purpose is to give a potential seller an idea about what their home will sell for.

Many real estate agents routinely offer to do a free CMA as a way of getting their foot in the door with a potential client. And, a CMA can be a very valuable tool for the seller. But I don't believe most sellers have enough information to accurately determine if what they're looking at makes sense.

You've probably heard the quote about "lies, damned lies, and statistics".  Well, then there are CMAs.

I can get a CMA to say just about anything I want it to. But a proper CMA, while not an actual appraisal, should take into account the methods an appraiser will use when choosing which homes to use as comparisons for yours.

First of all, if you live in a good sized subdivision and there have been recent sales, that's what will be used. It doesn't matter if you think the people down the road don't have as nice a house. The rules that appraisers follow will almost guarantee that the most important comparables he or she will look at will be in the subdivision where you live.

And, they're only going to look at recent sales. In this market, if it sold more than six months ago it's insane to consider it as a guide to pricing your home. No appraiser worth their salt will use it. Prices in this market may have stabilized. But there's also a pretty good chance they're still dropping.  The more current comparables you have, the better.

The comparables used should be as close to your home as possible in terms of age, style, number of rooms, garage, lot size, etc. Think apples to apples!

And the comparables should be focused on what has sold, not what's active. It doesn't matter what someone asks for their house. It only matters what they can actually sell it for!

CMAs can be manipulated to pull the data that supports the price a seller wants. And there are plenty of agents who want or need business badly enough to tell a seller what they want to hear. That's a disservice to everyone in the long run!

So push back and ask the hard questions when you look at the numbers. If you think those numbers look too good to be true, you're probably right!

I know sellers are waiting anxiously for how February numbers look.  And while it's too early to have all the data, here are two quick items to make you feel a little better!

Overall inventory fell this month from 1903 to 1793. These numbers cover Fauquier, Culpeper, Madison, Orange and Rappahannock counties. I can't tell you yet how much of this is attributable to new contracts and how much is attributable to the wintery weather that plagued us for much of the month.

There's also good news on the interest rate front with rates falling again this week for the second week in a row! That's good news for buyers and sellers!

Stay tuned to this space for more data as it becomes available!

I've written recently about changing thoughts about marketing properties. But I'm also rethinking how I market myself and my services. Obviously, if you've read that previous blog you know I'm not marketing myself in local print advertising! But I'm also rethinking the mailings I send out.

For years I've sent out post cards as well as other assorted mailings on a regular basis. I track where my business comes from each year and a very, very small percentage is directly trackable to mailings. Now I do get a lot of referral business from people who I mail things to. But these people also hear from me by telephone, in person and by e-mail. It's hard to believe that the most anonymous of these methods of communication, the generic postcard or letter, was responsible for the referral.

So, effectiveness is one reason to question whether to continue with physical mailings. Another is the ecological cost. I am an environmentalist and believe each of us personally is responsible for taking care of our world. I know that 99.9% of everything I mail is immediately thrown in the trash. And that's even if you really, really like me! (I don't include personal, hand-written notes in this!) The way that direct mail marketing is supposed to work is that even as you throw that card in the trash can each month, somewhere in the back of your mind you've registered that, "Yup! Julie is still a real estate agent!" Is that a good enough reason to fill up landfills? More and more, the physical mailings seem inconsistent with what I believe to be the right thing to do.

There's also a case to be made that in a market that's tough for my sellers, investing that money in marketing their properties and drawing in more buyers is better for them and thus, ultimately better for me since most of my business comes from referrals.

And, in this digital age, there are plenty of other ways to market myself. This blog is one of them. Hopefully it both markets who I am and my expertise, but also provides valuable information for the consumer. There's also my web site, drip e-mail campaigns with useful real estate information e-mailed on a monthly basis and new possibilities such as pod casts,etc.

So, give me your input on this. If you've been on my mailing list over the years, would you miss it if there were no more postcards? Would you remember me when the time came to refer a friend or neighbor even without the monthly reminders?

If you're an agent, have you wrestled with this problem? Do you worry about the spam issue? What answers have you arrived at?

I look forward to hearing your responses!

I just had another contract come in on one of my listings that designated a settlement agent far away from where the actual property is located. In this case the property is in Culpeper County and the settlement agent was in Arlington. This is not at all uncommon.

While the regional contract lets the buyer choose the settlement agent, the reality is that most buyers don't know any or don't have any preference and so the agent chooses. The agent makes their choice based on who they know will get the job done and based on convenience for themselves and their clients.

The problem arises after settlement when the settlement company needs to record the deed at the county courthouse in the county where the property is located. I've consistently run into settlement companies who are in no hurry to rush out and record the deed because it's just not convenient for them. This delays funds being released to my seller, which often delays their ability to close on their next home, particularly if they're buying their next home out of state.

I've solved this dilemna by giving the buyer's agent and their clients a choice in these situations. If you still want to use the designated settlement agent who's located out of the area, we add a clause to the contract saying posession, including the handing over of keys doesn't occur until after the deed is recorded. Since the buyers want into their new house, they've now got incentive to lean on their settlement agency!

Or, their other option is to move to a settlement agency nearby who will have the ability to typically record the same day as settlement.

Overall, this policy has worked well for both myself and my sellers.

Are there other agents or sellers out there who have run into these issues? Do you have other ways of addressing them?

It's time for another update on what the local market conditions look like from a statistical standpoint. The numbers I'm providing here are January, 2007 numbers unless I specify otherwise. These statstics are taken from the local Mulitple Listing Service (MLS).

We'll start with what I see as the most discouraging numbers: the total number of newly ratified contract in the Greater Piedmont Region (Fauquier, Culpeper, Rappahannock, Orange & Madison counties) in January of 2007 is 150. The total number of new listings entering the market was 485. Clearly inventory is headed back up again and that's bad for sellers. Buyers, life continues to look pretty rosy from your perspective!

Average days on market was 82 in January of 2006 and is now up to 148.

Average sales price as a percentage of list price was 94.59% in January of 2006. That number is now down to 90.58%.

Here's an interesting one for you! Average list price is up 2.66% year over year, but average sales price is down 1.69% for that same period.

Total active listings is 1903 as compared to 1334 last year at this time. This gets even more striking when you consider that just a month ago, December 2006, there were a total of 1260 active listings. I can confirm that I'm getting calls to take new listings almost daily.

What does this all mean? If you thought the spring would bring a hot sellers market, not a chance! For all those who are saying we've hit bottom, I doubt it! While there have indeed been more buyers out looking around they're not opening up the checkbook and you shouldn't count on them to.

If your home is not in top condition and priced very aggressively you are probably doomed to fail. If you don't have to sell right now, don't!

If you're a buyer, the news just keeps getting better!  Enjoy!

I'm always interested in why people choose their listing agent. Whether it's me or someone else who gets the business, the decision making process is of interest to me.

I had a listing appointment scheduled for one evening this week and got a call during the afternoon from the sellers cancelling the appointment. They said they'd already chosen another agent. They had originally planned to interview three agents and then choose. But they ended up making their choice after only interviewing one.

Now, if I'm the first one in and you allow me to talk you out of interviewing anyone else, good for me I guess. But definitely NOT good for you!

When I asked the sellers why they chose this agent they said "I think it was because she was just so pushy and she wore us down." That's a really interesting reason to choose an agent! Apparently this agent called them constantly asking why they were waiting to interview other agents when she was ready to go NOW!

To be fair this does show a great degree of enthusiasm and energy. And those are good qualities in a real estate agent. It may also signify desperation, a lack of confidence in their ability to compete against other agents and too much time on their hands!

Sellers should interview more than one agent because there is a lot of difference. I'll do a future blog on what questions you might want to ask in that interview.

I'd consider changing my approach to getting listings based on this feedback but high pressure tactics are pretty much foreign to my nature. I hate pushy salespeople when I'm trying to make a buying decision, especially a high dollar decision. In fact, I've told more than one they could either back off or lose any chance at my business. So, I'll probably continue to rely on my ability to present a compelling rationale using facts to explain why I'm the best agent to list your home!

If you've sold a home in the past I'd be interested in hearing how you made your decision on which agent to use. And if you're an agent are you successfully using high pressure tactics to get listings? Do you think there's any risk to establishing a working relationship that starts out on that footing?

There's a new company out there called Real Estate Equity Exchange that will help you pull equity out of your home without all the downside of taking on more debt or having to make payments. Or, at least that's what they advertise!

They will give you cash representing up to 15% of the value of your home. In exchange for this cash you give them up to 52.5% of the capital appreciation when you sell your home. In addition, you pay a service charge of $15,000 when you sell the house.

This does not seem like a good deal to me. That seems like potentially a lot of equity to give up for what you get.

This is likely to be most attractive to older owners who would otherwise be looking at a reverse mortgage. The reverse mortgage carries a service charge of $17,000 and current interest rates are somewhere around 6.5%.

The company says one of the reasons that it doesn't sound as attractive is that they are sharing the risk with the homeowner. So, if there's very little appreciation in your home, they make very little money.

While I'm skeptical of this deal it's apparently a big hit in the investment community with people lined up to throw money at the company and invest in these mortgages.

One thing is for sure, the financial options available to consumers are growing increasingly complex and "buyer beware" is definitely a good principle to apply. If you're contemplating any reverse mortgage or utilizing this new offering, make sure you do your homework! AARP has some good information on reverse mortgages. And you'll find some resources on this topic on my web site as well.

If you're unsure, don't hesitate to seek professional guidance from someone who isn't trying to sell you something!

Maybe the weather has made me cranky! But I'm going to rant a little today at my fellow agents. A pet peeve of mine is when an agent calls you for information that is in the listing or the tax records, but they're just too lazy to take the time to read!

I've had calls in the last week asking how to get into a listing. (Duh! The showing instructions say "Vacant, lockbox front door). Yesterday I had a call asking me how long my client had owned the house. (Tax records clearly indicate when posession transferred to him.)

Those are just the latest examples. There have been the agents who called for directions to the house, apparently unable to read the directions in the listing or to use Mapquest or some alternative.

Chances are these are the same agents who, if they write an offer for a potential buyer, will make a mess of it. This business requires an attention to detail that a lot of people just don't have!

With 2006 being a slower year for home sales many agents left the business. But clearly there are still plenty around who either need further education, a kick in their lazy bottoms or to find another line of work!

If you're one of the agents I'm ranting about, feel free to defend yourself here! Rebuttals are welcomed!

OK, spring is surely just around the corner and my blog posts will no doubt get cheerier as that happens. (Or the electricity will go out as a result of this ice and you'll all be spared!)

Dr. Michael Spar from the Weldon Cooper Center at UVA has recently produced a report showing the population changes in the state of Virginia by counties between 2000 and 2006. I love statistics and found some of these numbers very interesting. I thought some of you might enjoy them as well!

There is more detail and nuance in this report than I'm giving you here. It includes detail such as how much of the change is due to nature (i.e. births and deaths) and how much is due to migration.

I've listed some of the counties here. If there are others you're interested in, e-mail me at Julie@JulieEmery.com and I'll be happy to get you the information. Information on large metropolitan areas is also available.

So, now that you've seen the numbers...any of it surprise you? Any Rappahannock residents shocked? Any one want to hazard a guess at what these numbers will look like six years from now?