September's numbers are the kind to make you "ooooh" and "aaaah". They're that good!

In Culpeper, Fauquier and Prince William counties, inventory continues to fall and sales continue to rise.

In Culpeper inventory is down from 823 at this time last year to a measley 632 this year. Sales doubled year over year, 27 last year and 54 this September. And the trend looks to continue with 72 new contracts written in September!

There's good news for those of you in Fauquier as well. Inventory has declined from 832 last year to 696 at the end of September. While sales didn't quite double here they did a very respectable increase from 38 a year ago to 53 now. And new contracts soared to 83.

In Prince William things have changed so much that you've got to feel sorry for the buyers. Total inventory has declined from 5674 to 4489. Meanwhile sales have almost tripled from 327 to 934. 1059 new contracts have been written in Prince William. Multiple offers on foreclosures are now routine there. And bidding wars are back, if the house is in good enough condition and priced cheaply enough.

Rappahannock County is the rain cloud amidst all this sunshine. Inventory continues to rise there with 93 homes on the market now compared to 83 a year ago. There was one sale last month compared to 4 a year ago. And there are three new contracts. In general, sellers in Rappahannock County have been slower to lower prices, believing that the counties unique circumstances protect them from the economic forces at work. And, to some extent that's true. But clearly not to the extent many sellers believe! The other factor at work here are a large number of very expensive properties, owned by very wealthy people, who are perfectly willing and able to wait a year or two for market conditions to change.

Overall, sellers should be singing hallelujahs. But, here's why I suspect many of you aren't. What we continue to see are lots of sales of foreclosures and short sales at very low prices. Many sellers are not willing or able to compete at those prices.

While inventory levels have fallen to around a 12 month supply, it's still not low enough to stop the price declines. If you're a seller in this market, desparate to sell, you're probably thinking that there's not much comfort in this if the only thing selling is foreclosures. But sooner or later, surely, we're going to run out of foreclosures. Here's the question, if that's a year from now, or longer, can you wait?

I know you've been hearing nothing but doom and gloom from the financial markets for the last week. And, it does feel like the sky is falling some days.

But the August numbers actually show lots of reasons for optimism. Almost across the board, by any measure of activity, the numbers look much, much better than they did a year ago.

In Culpeper, the inventory is at 676, down from 814 homes for sale at this time a year ago. Meanwhile, closed sales jumped from 32 to 64. Even new listings coming on the market has fallen from 154 to 121.

In Fauquier the story is much the same. Inventory is at 730 now vs. 823 a year ago. While the sales are still relatively flat, they have increased from 57 to 60.

Prince William has seen dramatic improvements, year over year. Inventory levels right now are at 4835. A year ago there were 5654 homes for sale. Sales have doubled from 419 to 838. The only negative indicator here is that new listings continue to come on the market at a fast clip.  There were 1300 new listings in August. But a year ago there were 1530.

Rappahannock even showed some dramatic results with 5 sales last month compared to 2 a year ago. Inventory, however, remains close to it's highest point (August of last year) at 82 homes for sale.

While activity is very good, prices show no signs of recovery right now. And, I believe you'll continue to see prices flat or falling for at least the next six months. But banks are getting their listings sold. They're not doing it by getting them in great shape. They're doing it by dramatically discounting price.

If you're a seller, that's your dilemna. Do you drop your price to compete with the banks? Can you afford to wait until all the foreclosures work their way through the system, potentially at least another year? Do you rent it out and hope for a better market at the end of the lease?

Whatever you decide, whatever your situation, it's good to hear a little good news this week!

As you're making plans for your weekend, don't forget to stop by one of the local farmers markets. Here's a list of some that I've been frequenting:

Nokesville Farmer's Market - I just discovered this one but already love it. Hours are 8 to noon on Saturdays. They take "local" seriously at this one. All vendors are from Prince William or Fauquier Counties.

Warrenton Farmer's Market - Great excuse to get into old town Warrenton. This is their 33rd year. See them downtown Saturday's from 7 a.m. to noon or on Wednesdays out on Lee Hwy from 7 a.m. until 1.

Culpeper Farmer's Market - At the corner of Main and Commerce every Saturday from 7:30 to noon. I've been very impressed by the great selection of heirloom vegetables here!

Clevenger's Corner Farmers Market - This is the newest addition having just opened last Friday. This is at the intersection of 211 and 229 in Amissville. They're open Fridays and Sundays from 4-7 p.m. for all you non-morning people!

And...I hear there will be a new one in Sperryville any day now! More to come on that.

If you've got others you'd like to see mentioned here, jump into the comments and let everyone know!

I always enjoy hearing Robert Toll, CEO of Toll Brothers, on his quarterly conference calls. He's always refreshingly honest and will undoubtedly make me laugh out loud at some point during the call. And the one this week was no exception.

"With respect to traffic, it’s still dismal. Traffic is -- it’s consistent, however. It has not gotten any worse for the last three quarters, so we feel as though we’ve stabilized but I don’t want to give you the indication that that makes us feel good. It’s as though we walked into the tar pits, sunk up to our nose, our feet are touching a ledge and we are not going down any further but that sure doesn’t make us feel that comfortable...But we are heartened that at least we are able to spook up the traffic. That indicates that there are buyers out there waiting to be nudged. It will take a general turn in confidence for the big nudge to occur but sooner or later, it will occur."

 He's hit the nail on the head as far as traffic goes. Here's a chart that illustrates this at a local level for Prince William County:

There is still a huge gap between where inventory is and the number of sales. And this is after a huge jump in sales in Prince William recently. If you look at nearby counties the discrepancy is often even more jarring.

Unfortunately, there aren't any charts that give us foot traffic statistics. But this clearly illustrates the dilemna for the market. Excess supply in a free market economy inevitably pushes down prices. As long as this gap is as large as it is currently, there's no sign of a bottom from a price perspective.

It's a good thing Robert Toll has a good sense of humor!

The official June numbers have been released for this area of Virginia. Let's take a look, by county, at what they have to tell us.

First, Culpeper County. Compared to a year ago, inventory is down (732 now vs. 784 then). New contracts written have jumped (61 now vs. 47 then) and we see the same thing with solds (57 vs, 31). It's all good news! The only thing we see that isn't positive is that we're still adding new listings at a faster clip than I'd like. There were 130 new listings in June, compared to 113 a year ago. Still, when you look at year over year numbers, this is some of the best news we've seen in awhile.

Fauquier county presents a more mixed picture. The great news is Fauquier is inventory. A year ago we were looking at 865 homes on the market. Now we're down to 753. That's a 13% reduction in inventory. Good news! And the trend seems likely to continue. There were 128 new listings this month compared to 171 a year ago. The mixed part is the number of contracts and sales. There were 61 new contracts written this month compared to 65 a year ago. And 67 homes sold compared to 65 a year ago. Those aren't terrible numbers, but they're not telling as good a story as the other numbers.

Prince William County is where things are really hopping! This is the best news of any jurisidiction. And it follows the nationwide trend of this housing recovery happening closer to urban centers. Inventory is down from a year ago (5501 vs. 5703). But look at the contracts written and the number of solds! 987 new contracts were written in June. Compare that to last June when there were only 454. That's an increase of over 100%. And the solds tell a similar story. The numbers in June were 834 vs. 456 a year ago. The number of new listings is also decreasing 1448 now vs. 1539 in 2007. There's not a spec of bad news to be found in Prince William! Anecdotal evidence supports this. There are numerous examples of not only quick sales, but multiple offers on the most attractively priced properties.

Rappahannock remains in its own little world! Inventory is up from 79 to 85. New listings are almost identical to a year ago (17 now, 16 then). New contracts are down from 7 a year ago to 4 now.  Solds are exactly the same at 4. In other words things remain much the same in Rappahannock County.

This is the most positive report I've seen in a long time. There's no way to look at these numbers and not be optimistic.  I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that in Prince William County they may have seen the bottom. We won't know for sure until at least 6 months from now, but it's possible.

By the way, if you're a seller that doesn't mean you can raise your price! The properties priced CORRECTLY FOR THE MARKET are selling. There are still plenty of them sitting there!

When I want to show a listing to a buyer, I use a lockbox to enter the house. Typically, in this area (Prince William, Fauquier, Culpeper, Rappahannock and Warren counties) that generally means an electronic lockbox that often looks like this:

To access this box and get the house key out, I use an electronic device that's been updated with a special code within the last 24 hours. It's an extra level of protection for the homeowner in case my "ekey" is stolen. Within 24 hours it's essentially worthless unless you know my passwords in order to get it updated.

The other advantage of this lockbox is that I know who has shown my listings. If something is missing, left unlocked, etc. I likely know who to track down to ask about the problem.

There have always been a few holdouts who still used combination (combo) lockboxes:

These boxes require only an alpha or numeric code in order to open them and access the key. If I know the combination I could, theoretically, give that information to someone else and that's all they'd need to access the keys to your home. It's a less secure method of access. The advantage in some agents' eyes is that if someone from outside our area wants to show the house, there's no problem if they don't use the same lockbox system used in this area.

With the large number of foreclosures in our area, we're seeing a big increase in the use of these combination lockboxes. Most banks will mandate that a combo box be used on their listings. I've had trouble coming up with a good reason for this. The only thing I can think of is that they want bank personnel to be able to access the property if necessary, without a real estate agent present.

I was troubled this week to learn that a local agent had mentioned that if he's unable to show a home when his buyer clients want to see it and he can't find any other agent to cover for him, he'll simply give his clients the combination and let them go in the house on their own.

Hmmmmm! The number of reasons this is a bad idea is very long. The liability to the agent should anything go wrong, is huge. It could be that his clients are good people with the best of intentions but they have trouble getting the keys back into the lockbox. It happens all the time. It is, of course, highly unprofessional and, I'd suggest, unethical. The listing agent should definitely be making a phone call to the agent's broker at the very least, to protest this behavior.

By the way, when the agent was confronted with what a bad idea this was the response was "Everybody does it." I never got that one by my Mom. And, I'm not buying it now!

There's a constant refrain here. And, I know I sound like a record stuck in a groove. But May numbers continue to reinforce that we've still got too much inventory.

Culpeper County shows we're only eight units off where we were last year at this time. The good news is that sales jumped substantially this month. And, I'm not using month over month comparisons, but year over year. Both new contracts and closed sales took a big jump. But that pace is going to need to continue for months in order to start to see the reduction in inventory we need in order to stabilize prices.

In Fauquier County last year at this point in time we hit our highest number ever for inventory. Unlike Culpeper, we've come down substantially. A year ago there were 867 homes for sale and now it's only 764. The contracts written and the sales closed are both also up, if not quite as much as in Culpeper.

Prince William County actually has a large increase in inventory. While contracts and sales are up, the increase in inventory means no firming up of prices there any time soon. Since Prince William County is one of the hardest hit counties in Virginia for foreclosures, this will likely take some time to resolve itself. But bargain hunters are out there.

Rappahannock County remains a place apart. The market is almost exactly where it was a year ago. Days on market are longer there as well, inventory is higher than it was several years ago. But it's a very different market than what we're seeing in the other three counties.

Our numbers reflect the national numbers pretty well. New contracts are up across the nation. The numbers you hear from NAR and from most of the national media are primarily comparing May, 2008 to April, 2008 and of course the numbers are going to go up. The more meaningful number is always year over year.

We've got some good signs out there. There are buyers out there. They're looking for bargains. They've got the right market for it.

We're going to look at Prince William County statistics today.

Prince William is different than the other counties I look at here. Its numbers are better by far in almost every category. If you were only looking at Prince William you could be forgiven for thinking things had definitely turned around.

There are 5757 properties currently for sale. And, inventory is one of the few indicators that show the market headed in the wrong direction. Last month there were 5573 homes for sale. In March a year ago there were only 4527 homes available. 1631 new listings came on the market in March. Last month there were 1595. A year ago in March we saw 1764 new listings.

502 sales closed in March of this year. That's up 49% over last month! And, if we look a year ago, when 418 houses sold, we're up 20%. Again, year over year numbers are the more meaningful statistic.

Even better are the number of new contracts written. 820 new contracts were written in March of 2008 as opposed to 698 in February. That's a 17 percent jump. Again, I don't give that a lot of weight because things should be getting better. It's spring! But the really good news is that last year at this time there were only 508 sales. That's a whopping 61% year over year increase.

Now, here's why! Prices have dropped dramatically. The average sales price in March of this year was $299,586. The average sales price a year ago was $408,574. That's a price drop of 26%. Compare that the Fauquier County average sales price of $318K and you begin to see some of the reason homes aren't selling as well there. Do you want to commute those extra miles with gas prices headed towards $4 a gallon and traffic getting worse?

Also, keep in mind that one of the reasons prices have dropped faster there is the larger number of foreclosures. Banks will do what they need to do to get the houses sold and off their books.

The number of new construction listings is substantially down frm last year. The number of sales of new construction is relatively flat.

More than any other local county, there are signs of hope in Prince William County. Yes, the price drops are steep, but it's getting the market moving. Sellers in other counties should take note.

Is this happening locally?

I've been watching a house in Warrenton that appears to have been taken back by the bank, owners are long gone, and yet it's never been put up for sale, or even auction. I've been wondering about what's going on and this may provide an answer.

I'm going to attempt to investigate this particular property further.

If this is happening, think about the potential revenue implications for the local jurisdictions! Prince William thinks they have a revenue shortfall now!

Meanwhile, does anyone else have any anecdotal evidence that this is happening?

The numbers for October are out. And, overall, they don't show a tremendous amount of change. The total number of solds remain low. In most counties the number of new listings was up. But the overall inventory showed a very slight decrease almost everywhere.

Clearly the inventory decrease has to be due to something other than houses being sold. Some of the homes were taken off the market. A lot of them were rented as that market remains much healthier than the market for sales.

The brightest spot in all of this is that the number of contracts written spiked up a fair amount this month. And that bears out the anecdotal evidence I've seen and heard. We've known there's some pent up demand out there. At least some of those buyers have made the decision that this is the time. I'm guessing a lot of them would like to be in their new homes for Christmas.

I'm also receiving an increasing number of inquiries from buyers who want to start looking now but don't intend to buy until the spring. I'm hoping that what I'm seeing there is also part of a larger trend.

Over the next couple of days, I'll post the detailed charts with the numbers for Culpeper, Fauquier, Rappahannock and Prince William Counties. If you have a special request for the inventory for another county, e-mail me or post a comment here and I'll get you the information. I have the data for just about every county in the northern half of Virginia.

Bottom line on all the data is that there's a little bit of increased activity and still a long way to go to get this inventory back to a manageable level!

The New York Times has an interesting map showing the percentage of subprime mortgages by county throughout the US. I took a look at the rates for this area and the good news is that it could look a lot worse!

Here are some of the rates:

Fauquier County: 24%

Culpeper County: 33%

Rappahannock County: 21%

Prince William County: 33%

Warren County: 29%

Loudon County: 22%

This puts us in pretty good shape relative to some of the hardest hit states, such as Florida, Nevada and California. And, some of the counties with the worst numbers are in places where they did not experience the extraordinary surge in home values.

It's also not much of a surprise to see Culpeper and Prince William Counties among the hardest hit. In Culpeper especially, I expect there's still a lot of pain to come.

Before we get started can I just say that I like good housing news as much as the next guy, and probably more! I'm looking for it, I swear I am. The numbers just aren't cooperating!

March numbers are in for the local markets and they're not pretty.

Culpeper shows that total inventory increased to 643. The number of new listings coming on the market increased from 91 in February to 145 in March. Meanwhile there were 54 new contracts ratified and 52 sales closed.

In Fauquier the inventory is up to 723. 212 new listings came on the market in March, up from 135 in February. 94 new contracts were ratified and 62 sales closed.

In Rappahannock, as usual, there's less variation. There are 66 properties currently for sale. 10 new properties came on the market in March, 3 less than in February. Three listings went under contract and 5 sales closed.

In Prince William county the inventory is now 4527. 1764 new listings came on the market in March compared to 1172 in February. 508 new contracts were ratified and there were 418 closed sales.

Inventory is back up to right around October/November, 2006 levels.

In other not good news this week, D R Horton, a major national homebuilder announced spectacularily bad financials again as well as a warning that they see the market weakness continuing for the next three quarters.

OK, clearly the bright spot here is for the buyers! And I'm very happy for them and it was definitely their turn!

Sellers, if there's a bright spot here it's that it is absolutely crystal clear that you shouldn't be selling if you don't need to! How's that for finding that silver lining!

You're turn to tell me about all the good news you're seeing out there!