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Piedmont Real Estate Blog

Blog by Julie Emery
Amissville, Virginia

An ongoing dialog on real estate news, opinion and trends in Northern Virginia and the greater Piedmont area.

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Piedmont Real Estate Blog

The Bailout

Sep. 9, 2008
Categorized in: Mortgages

I've waited a few days to talk about the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bailout. There are two reasons for that. First of all, I don't think we yet know what the effects are really going to be. Secondly, I'd posted when the legislation was passed in July that I was uncomfortable with the idea but didn't have a better one.

Clearly the markets told us yesterday that they think this is a swell idea. And, from their perspective you can certainly see why. Risks for investors have been reduced. Instead, risks for taxpayers have increased. (Hmmm, aren't investors also taxpayers?)

As a taxpayer, I remain skeptical about this use of my money.

As someone who makes a living in the real estate industry, it gladdened my heart to see mortgage interest rates drop a full half percent yesterday.

Long term, the model of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac doesn't seem to have served us well. Whether some tinkering with the mechanisms can fix it or whether it needs to be scrapped completely will be debated over the next year.

The other debate will be over whether we, as a society, want to make home ownership a high priority. I suspect most are still in favor of this, even given our current difficulties. But I think a lively debate over how we allocate resources and what we believe in, is always a good thing!

Northern VA Market

Jan. 11, 2008
Categorized in: Miscellaneous

An assortment of tidbits today.

Here's an interesting overall look at the Northern VA real estate market. It only comes out as far as Loudon and Prince William but you can extrapolate from there.

Bank of America appears to be set to buy Countrywide. This is good news. Countrywide appeared to be headed for bankruptcy which would have been unbelievably disruptive to the industry.

Zillow has announced that the number of homes it covers and the accuracy of it's estimates are greatly improved. You could have fooled me. When I took a look at where I live there was no Zestimate at all for our home or any of our neighbors.

This blog post if right on in pointing out that REALTORS should be the first ones objecting to NAR's absurdly rosy predictions. Credibility once lost is hard to regain.

Ben Bernanke appears set on cutting interest rates again this month. A half point cut now seems entirely possible. The effect on the mortgage interest rate remains to be seen. However, LIBOR, a rate used to set interest rates on adjustable rate mortgages fell this week. Good news if you've got an ARM due to reset soon!

Where Are My Lower Rates?

Oct. 1, 2007
Categorized in: Mortgages

So, I know you're all wondering what happened to that half point interest rate cut!

About two weeks ago now the Fed lowered the Federal Funds rate half a point. And the "Happy Days are Here Again" music immediately rang out from the real estate industry. Well, at least in some quarters you heard a lot of happy talk!

And, I thought we'd see more impact than we have. Instead what we've got are mortgage interest rates trending up. The financial markets clearly believe there's some reason to fear inflation and that fear is carrying more weight than the interest rate cuts by the Fed.

Granted, much of the Fed's cut had been factored in by the markets in advance. It's part of why the rates are still so low.

And we may yet see additional reductions as the impact of more money available to lend filters through the system.

But for now, I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for any significant impact on mortgage interest rates from Fed rate cuts. If you've been afraid to lock in a rate, I'd go ahead. I believe there's a greater risk now of interest rates going up due to inflationary pressures than that you'll miss out on a great deal on interest rates.

Half a Percentage Point

Sep. 19, 2007
Categorized in: Mortgages

I do know that the correct phrasing for yesterday's rate cuts is "50 basis points" but let's face it, all us lay people are thinking about it as half a percentage point!

Whatever you want to call it, it's good news for buyers and sellers!

Let me explain that this is NOT a half percentage point cut in mortgage interest rates. While the Fed rate does impact mortgage interest rates it's not a direct one to one correlation. And, some of the Fed rate cut has been gradually factored in already.

That said, this will put downwards pressure on mortgage interest rates. Today's release of CPI numbers showing almost no inflationary pressure will help that as well.

So...now what do you do? If you're a potential buyer it's a great time to think about buying a house. You probably qualify for a little more than you did a week or two ago. There are unlikely to be much in the way of additional rate cuts in my opinion. If you're even semi serious it's time to talk to a mortgage lender and find out what you can afford to buy. Then go looking! But read my advice to sellers as well!

Sellers, good news at last! But...don't blow this! This is not the time to raise your price. In fact, I'd argue just the opposite is true. You're likely to get a brief uptick in buyers. Lower the price now and get the place sold. This new, small surge of buyers isn't likely to last long and the spring market is a very long time away! I believe pricing pressure will continue to push home prices down. The bulk of foreclosures haven't begun to hit the market here locally yet. And, as always, make sure your home is in tip top showing condition and is easy to show! Always!

Market Conditions and Interest Rates

Jun. 12, 2007
Categorized in: Local Market Conditions

We have our first guest blogger today. It's Chuck Cornwell, the owner/broker at REMAX Regency in Warrenton. I'm happy to say he's my broker and always has something interesting to contribute. Here's what he's got to share with us today. Thanks for your contribution, Chuck!

With the recent increase in interest rates, I would like to take a moment to analyze just what this means to our home prices.

As we have been talking about for the past few months, housing affordability is our major real estate market issue. There are many buyers who want to own a home, but, if they cannot afford the mortgage, they cannot buy the home. As home prices adjust to a level of affordability for the purchaser, the home will be purchased. This is proven as we see well priced homes selling quickly, some even with multiple offers.

Now let's look at the effect of the recent run up in interest rates. Over the past week, we have seen another ¼ percent increase in our open market interest rates. What does this mean to housing affordability? While this may only be a ¼ percent, its actual effect to home prices is a little over 2%!!!

To use round numbers - take a $100,000 mortgage at 6.5% - the PI payment for this is $632 per month. At 6.75%, this payment increases $16 per month to $648. To create the same monthly payment of $632 at the higher interest rate, your loan amount must be $2,301 less or 2.3% less!! Now, multiply this by 3, as in a $300,000 mortgage, and your customer can now afford 2.3% of $300,000, or $6,900, less in a home. So the same house last week, with the prices staying current, is now costing the purchaser, $6,900 more.

Bottom line in some very simple terms, with this analysis: Every ¼% increase in interest rate can affect our overall home affordability by 2.3%. Perhaps we will see this effect roll into median home values by an equal amount. So, when keeping your sellers abreast of the market, should you be more aggressive in pricing your listings for this fact alone? Did every home just fall in value by 2.3% this week? If interest rates continue to climb, home values may continue to be under pressure. Getting ahead of this potential pricing wave is a matter that should be discussed with your clients.

The above analysis is only looking at this past week. When you look back over the past couple of month, our rates have climbed more substantially then the ¼ percent outlined above. Consider, if you priced a home several months ago, what the impact of the more substantial interest rate increases we have experienced!

Ok, we have focused the above on our Sellers - now consider a Purchaser!!! Think of this overall increase in homeownership with interest rate increases. It is doubtful that the Sellers will actually decrease their home prices by a factor larger than the one outlined above. So, if interest rates continue to increase, the overall effect of their housing cost will rise. If a purchaser is looking to jump in, or move up into a larger home, the longer they wait, the higher their overall costs will be!!

With inventory levels high, offering a great selection to a purchaser, if a home i s priced right for the current market conditions, there is not a better time than now to buy a home!! Actually, the best time for a purchaser was a few months ago, when the rates were lower with a well price home, but, that is history. All we can work with is today.

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