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Piedmont Real Estate Blog

Blog by Julie Emery
Amissville, Virginia

An ongoing dialog on real estate news, opinion and trends in Northern Virginia and the greater Piedmont area. Julie is an Associate Broker at Century 21 New Millennium, 5451 Old Alexandria Turnpike, Warrenton, VA 20187

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 Let's not forget the interest rate factor. D...
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Piedmont Real Estate Blog

The Real Estate Stimulus

Feb. 5, 2009
Categorized in: Real Estate Legislation

The Senate, yesterday, passed an ammendment to the stimulus bill that would create a $15,000 tax credit for home buyers for the next year. It would apply to anyone buying a primary residence, new construction or an existing home. It passed by unanimous voice vote and appears to have no serious opposition.

That doesn't ensure it will still be in the final bill, but the odds appear pretty good.

Today the Senate is likely to vote on a provision that would lower mortgage rates for purchases or refinancing to 4.5% or lower. Again, it seems like there's a good chance of passage.

All this is very good news and could bring out a lot of new buyers in the next few months. And, one senator suggested that this would not be the end of the help for the real estate market.

Are we about to turn the corner? Stay tuned, but I'm feeling pretty optimistic today!

How Low Will They Go?

Dec. 17, 2008
Categorized in: Buyers

Mortgage rates are way, way down today. The lowest I've seen is 4.875% for a 30 year fixed with 0 points. That's truly incredible and probably the lowest mortgage interest rate I've seen in my lifetime.

The rates did not drop because of the Fed's drop of the Fed funds rate, but because of what else Fed Chair Bernanke had to say yesterday. He basically said he's going to do whatever it takes to get this economy moving again. And, he specifically said that can include buying mortgage backed securities. That's the big deal.

Because those mortgage backed securities are still sitting on the banks books. And regardless of what the federal government has tried banks still are not lending money as freely as the economy needs. The mortgage backed securities, which may, in fact, be worthless are a big part of why they still aren't lending. What the Fed did was signal that they will buy these possibly worthless assets and allow the banks to get them off their balance sheets. That should, finally, convince the banks to lend money again.

But, if you've been contemplating buying a home right now, your biggest question is probably, should I buy now or will rates go lower?

No one can answer that question for you definitively. But here's what I think. There's a fair chance that rates may go even lower. There are proposals floating around that would have the government subsidizing mortgage rates to lower them even more. No one knows whether any of these proposals will ever actually be implemented. But given the current environment and government's determination to get the economy fixed, it certainly could happen.

But, if you've found a home you love and the price is right and you can afford a mortgage with rates where they are, I'd suggest you move forward now. The risk of losing a home you want is higher than the risk of losing out on a slightly lower mortgage rate. Buy now, build a little equity and, if rates stay low you can refinance down the road.

If you're out there looking, I'd say keep looking. Inventory is lower than it has been in several years. These lower rates may actually make that worse as more buyers begin to make their move. Your selection isn't likely to improve in the short term and if you find something you'd like, jump on it.

If you haven't started looking yet, I definitely think you ought to at least be very closely monitoring inventory. You should know what's out there and what you get for your money in your price range. I can't tell you whether or not to wait for rates a little lower. But I can tell you that great rates now and a reasonable amount of inventory might be a better situation than even lower rates and buyers fighting over inventory. This is especially true in the lower price ranges where inventory has gotten very picked over.

I think it's shaping up to be a very interesting 2009!

The Bailout

Sep. 9, 2008
Categorized in: Mortgages

I've waited a few days to talk about the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bailout. There are two reasons for that. First of all, I don't think we yet know what the effects are really going to be. Secondly, I'd posted when the legislation was passed in July that I was uncomfortable with the idea but didn't have a better one.

Clearly the markets told us yesterday that they think this is a swell idea. And, from their perspective you can certainly see why. Risks for investors have been reduced. Instead, risks for taxpayers have increased. (Hmmm, aren't investors also taxpayers?)

As a taxpayer, I remain skeptical about this use of my money.

As someone who makes a living in the real estate industry, it gladdened my heart to see mortgage interest rates drop a full half percent yesterday.

Long term, the model of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac doesn't seem to have served us well. Whether some tinkering with the mechanisms can fix it or whether it needs to be scrapped completely will be debated over the next year.

The other debate will be over whether we, as a society, want to make home ownership a high priority. I suspect most are still in favor of this, even given our current difficulties. But I think a lively debate over how we allocate resources and what we believe in, is always a good thing!

Northern VA Market

Jan. 11, 2008
Categorized in: Miscellaneous

An assortment of tidbits today.

Here's an interesting overall look at the Northern VA real estate market. It only comes out as far as Loudon and Prince William but you can extrapolate from there.

Bank of America appears to be set to buy Countrywide. This is good news. Countrywide appeared to be headed for bankruptcy which would have been unbelievably disruptive to the industry.

Zillow has announced that the number of homes it covers and the accuracy of it's estimates are greatly improved. You could have fooled me. When I took a look at where I live there was no Zestimate at all for our home or any of our neighbors.

This blog post if right on in pointing out that REALTORS should be the first ones objecting to NAR's absurdly rosy predictions. Credibility once lost is hard to regain.

Ben Bernanke appears set on cutting interest rates again this month. A half point cut now seems entirely possible. The effect on the mortgage interest rate remains to be seen. However, LIBOR, a rate used to set interest rates on adjustable rate mortgages fell this week. Good news if you've got an ARM due to reset soon!

Where Are My Lower Rates?

Oct. 1, 2007
Categorized in: Mortgages

So, I know you're all wondering what happened to that half point interest rate cut!

About two weeks ago now the Fed lowered the Federal Funds rate half a point. And the "Happy Days are Here Again" music immediately rang out from the real estate industry. Well, at least in some quarters you heard a lot of happy talk!

And, I thought we'd see more impact than we have. Instead what we've got are mortgage interest rates trending up. The financial markets clearly believe there's some reason to fear inflation and that fear is carrying more weight than the interest rate cuts by the Fed.

Granted, much of the Fed's cut had been factored in by the markets in advance. It's part of why the rates are still so low.

And we may yet see additional reductions as the impact of more money available to lend filters through the system.

But for now, I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for any significant impact on mortgage interest rates from Fed rate cuts. If you've been afraid to lock in a rate, I'd go ahead. I believe there's a greater risk now of interest rates going up due to inflationary pressures than that you'll miss out on a great deal on interest rates.

Half a Percentage Point

Sep. 19, 2007
Categorized in: Mortgages

I do know that the correct phrasing for yesterday's rate cuts is "50 basis points" but let's face it, all us lay people are thinking about it as half a percentage point!

Whatever you want to call it, it's good news for buyers and sellers!

Let me explain that this is NOT a half percentage point cut in mortgage interest rates. While the Fed rate does impact mortgage interest rates it's not a direct one to one correlation. And, some of the Fed rate cut has been gradually factored in already.

That said, this will put downwards pressure on mortgage interest rates. Today's release of CPI numbers showing almost no inflationary pressure will help that as well.

So...now what do you do? If you're a potential buyer it's a great time to think about buying a house. You probably qualify for a little more than you did a week or two ago. There are unlikely to be much in the way of additional rate cuts in my opinion. If you're even semi serious it's time to talk to a mortgage lender and find out what you can afford to buy. Then go looking! But read my advice to sellers as well!

Sellers, good news at last! But...don't blow this! This is not the time to raise your price. In fact, I'd argue just the opposite is true. You're likely to get a brief uptick in buyers. Lower the price now and get the place sold. This new, small surge of buyers isn't likely to last long and the spring market is a very long time away! I believe pricing pressure will continue to push home prices down. The bulk of foreclosures haven't begun to hit the market here locally yet. And, as always, make sure your home is in tip top showing condition and is easy to show! Always!