The April numbers are finalized.  I did a sneak preview for you about ten days ago, before the numbers were official. And, the picture hasn't changed much.

In every county, the pattern is the same. Inventory has risen again, as has the number of new listings. After a dismal month in terms of sales in March, April looks better, both in terms of new contracts written and sales closed. But the number of houses sold is not keeping pace with the new listings coming on the market.

Fauquier, Culpeper are each showing about 16 months of inventory. Warren is looking worse at 24 months. Prince William is in the best shape at only 9 months. Rappahannock, being a special place, has about 3 years worth of inventory. But, again, the numbers generally don't give a very realistic picture of Rappahannock.

The more interesting comparison, of course, is year over year. Since real estate is very seasonal, that's always true. In general, inventory is higher than it was a year ago and sales are slower. There are some exceptions, but it's too soon to say if those are a blip or a true change in market conditions.

No bottom in sight would be my reading of current conditions. There is nothing to suggest we've turned a corner. (Although I remain hopeful that I'm wrong!)

Today I'm going to talk about March's numbers for Fauquier county.

There is very little difference between the numbers in February and March. The total number of properties for sale in February was 730 and at the end of March we showed 734 available properties. That, actually, is good news. Many other counties continue to show substantial increases in that metric. 140 new listings were added this month as opposed to 153 in February. Again, at least it's moving in the right direction. There were 56 contracts written this month and only 44 in February. This is the biggest change in the month over month numbers. The number of houses sold last month rose from 32 in February to 35 in March. Not a huge difference, but an improvement.

Again, I think it's much more telling to look at year over year numbers.

Unlike Culpeper County we have not seen an explosion in inventory over last year, although we are up. That 734 homes for sale number is slightly higher than 723. We see a lot less homes coming on the market 212 last year as opposed to 140 this year. Unfortunately, that's where the good news ends. The number of new contracts written has fallen almost in half, 94 a year ago down to only 56 now. The same story applies to closed sales. In March of 2007 there were 62 closed sales. In March of 2008 only 35.

Year over year it's hard to see any signs that this market is turning around. The flatter inventory numbers do give me some hope,  however.

Prices continue to drop. The average sales price in Fauquier county a year ago was $368,565. The average sales price now is $318,249. That's a 15% drop in one year. That's significant. There's no sign that prices are stabilizing either.

We're not seeing an increase in new construction listings. And, new construction sales are almost non-existent. There was 1 last month.

Overall, there's not much here to raise your hopes if you're a seller. But there is lots of continued good news for the buyers!

There was a terrific article in last Sunday's Richmond Times Dispatch about the real estate market downturn and how we got here. It's a very sensible explanation.

This article also walks the line between absurd boosterism of the real estate industry and extreme pessimism in the interest of selling papers. It seems to me that they got it just about right.

The author does take a harder line view of helping those who got hurt, particularly if that help is government related. I'll wait until the full details of the government's plan is revealed before I pick it apart. But I would like to make two general points on this.

First of all, to some extent helping cushion the extent of the pain of the downturn is in almost everyone's best interests. If the economy gets dragged into a recession by the current real estate downturn that's not good for the country as a whole. So, there's room for discussion, I think, about government's role in helping.

Secondly, while no one is arguing that everyone on the verge of losing their homes is deserving of a bail out, there's something to be said for the quality of mercy. Who of us hasn't, at some point in our lives, from someone, gotten some help we in no way deserved. I'm not saying bail everyone touched by this mess out. But I'm saying let's look at a measured approach that looks at what's possible, what makes sense for the economy and the country and what can we find it in our hearts to do for those caught in a bad situation.

This is one of those times when events overtake my plan for this blog! I had intended to write about print advertising today based on some conversations with real estate agents this week.

But since Fauquier County is all over the news as of last night with reports of the 25% increase in the price of homes here, we definitely need to talk about this!

You've all heard the quote "Lies, damned lies and statistics..." and that's certainly true here. In truth, in September only 38 homes sold in Fauquier County. There are 832 currently for sale. And, yes, we did set another all time record for homes on the market! You'd have to say it was a pretty bad month overall. In August 60 homes were sold.

Every single trend is heading in the wrong direction. With, of course, the exception of the average sales price.

With only 38 transactions, it doesn't take much for the results to be significantly skewed by only a few transactions. As it happens, in September, there were three very expensive properties sold that definitely impacted the average. If 3 homes sell that are all priced at over $3,000,000 and that makes the averages sales price jump by 50% does that mean the average sales price is really increasing? Absolutely not!

If, as a seller, you've taken this statistic to mean that you can increase what you're asking for your house or what you intend to ask for you house, that's a very big mistake!

Sometimes you have to know what's behind the statistics to understand what they mean to you. In this instance, every number I see tells me that it remains a very tough market for sellers. And, in fact, September was worse in almost every way. 38 sales was the smallest number we've seen since the downturn started.

I wouldn't be rushing out to raise the price on my home if I were you!