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Piedmont Real Estate Blog

Blog by Julie Emery
Amissville, Virginia

An ongoing dialog on real estate news, opinion and trends in Northern Virginia and the greater Piedmont area. Julie is an Associate Broker at Century 21 New Millennium, 5451 Old Alexandria Turnpike, Warrenton, VA 20187

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Piedmont Real Estate Blog

July Number and More Good News

Aug. 12, 2008
Categorized in: Local Market Conditions

I love good news and, fortunately, there's plenty available in this month's real estate statistics. The trends, across the board, are up! And, not only that, but if you look at trends over the last six months you see a longer term upward trend that seems to be developing.

Take a look at Culpeper County for example:

Month                   # Listings           New Listings       New Contracts    Solds 

 

 

02/08
819
206
51
31
03/08
802
142
53
42
04/08
809
171
74
48
05/08
779
160
76
63
06/08
732
130
61
57
07/08
691
116
64
54

 

This is great news! The most important thing here is the continued downward trend of inventory. Solds are generally trending upwards, although not quite as strongly. But it's a good news story.

Fauquier is also looking good:

02/08
730
153
44
32
03/08
734
140
56
35
04/08
764
168
68
47
05/08
764
145
79
49
06/08
753
128
61
67
07/08
745
141
68
117

In Fauquier the decrease in inventory is less convincing. But the steady increase in sales is helping to make up for that. If it continues we'll ultimately see a decrease on the inventory side as well.

Now the caveat, of course!

We are at the end of the summer, the busiest home buying period. We may very well begin to see the inventory numbers begin to rise again after August and see sales numbers fall.

Prices are nowhere near stabilizing.

But in a year of nothing but doom and gloom, there's a little good news here!

June Numbers

Jul. 11, 2008
Categorized in: Local Market Conditions

The official June numbers have been released for this area of Virginia. Let's take a look, by county, at what they have to tell us.

First, Culpeper County. Compared to a year ago, inventory is down (732 now vs. 784 then). New contracts written have jumped (61 now vs. 47 then) and we see the same thing with solds (57 vs, 31). It's all good news! The only thing we see that isn't positive is that we're still adding new listings at a faster clip than I'd like. There were 130 new listings in June, compared to 113 a year ago. Still, when you look at year over year numbers, this is some of the best news we've seen in awhile.

Fauquier county presents a more mixed picture. The great news is Fauquier is inventory. A year ago we were looking at 865 homes on the market. Now we're down to 753. That's a 13% reduction in inventory. Good news! And the trend seems likely to continue. There were 128 new listings this month compared to 171 a year ago. The mixed part is the number of contracts and sales. There were 61 new contracts written this month compared to 65 a year ago. And 67 homes sold compared to 65 a year ago. Those aren't terrible numbers, but they're not telling as good a story as the other numbers.

Prince William County is where things are really hopping! This is the best news of any jurisidiction. And it follows the nationwide trend of this housing recovery happening closer to urban centers. Inventory is down from a year ago (5501 vs. 5703). But look at the contracts written and the number of solds! 987 new contracts were written in June. Compare that to last June when there were only 454. That's an increase of over 100%. And the solds tell a similar story. The numbers in June were 834 vs. 456 a year ago. The number of new listings is also decreasing 1448 now vs. 1539 in 2007. There's not a spec of bad news to be found in Prince William! Anecdotal evidence supports this. There are numerous examples of not only quick sales, but multiple offers on the most attractively priced properties.

Rappahannock remains in its own little world! Inventory is up from 79 to 85. New listings are almost identical to a year ago (17 now, 16 then). New contracts are down from 7 a year ago to 4 now.  Solds are exactly the same at 4. In other words things remain much the same in Rappahannock County.

This is the most positive report I've seen in a long time. There's no way to look at these numbers and not be optimistic.  I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that in Prince William County they may have seen the bottom. We won't know for sure until at least 6 months from now, but it's possible.

By the way, if you're a seller that doesn't mean you can raise your price! The properties priced CORRECTLY FOR THE MARKET are selling. There are still plenty of them sitting there!