September's numbers are the kind to make you "ooooh" and "aaaah". They're that good!

In Culpeper, Fauquier and Prince William counties, inventory continues to fall and sales continue to rise.

In Culpeper inventory is down from 823 at this time last year to a measley 632 this year. Sales doubled year over year, 27 last year and 54 this September. And the trend looks to continue with 72 new contracts written in September!

There's good news for those of you in Fauquier as well. Inventory has declined from 832 last year to 696 at the end of September. While sales didn't quite double here they did a very respectable increase from 38 a year ago to 53 now. And new contracts soared to 83.

In Prince William things have changed so much that you've got to feel sorry for the buyers. Total inventory has declined from 5674 to 4489. Meanwhile sales have almost tripled from 327 to 934. 1059 new contracts have been written in Prince William. Multiple offers on foreclosures are now routine there. And bidding wars are back, if the house is in good enough condition and priced cheaply enough.

Rappahannock County is the rain cloud amidst all this sunshine. Inventory continues to rise there with 93 homes on the market now compared to 83 a year ago. There was one sale last month compared to 4 a year ago. And there are three new contracts. In general, sellers in Rappahannock County have been slower to lower prices, believing that the counties unique circumstances protect them from the economic forces at work. And, to some extent that's true. But clearly not to the extent many sellers believe! The other factor at work here are a large number of very expensive properties, owned by very wealthy people, who are perfectly willing and able to wait a year or two for market conditions to change.

Overall, sellers should be singing hallelujahs. But, here's why I suspect many of you aren't. What we continue to see are lots of sales of foreclosures and short sales at very low prices. Many sellers are not willing or able to compete at those prices.

While inventory levels have fallen to around a 12 month supply, it's still not low enough to stop the price declines. If you're a seller in this market, desparate to sell, you're probably thinking that there's not much comfort in this if the only thing selling is foreclosures. But sooner or later, surely, we're going to run out of foreclosures. Here's the question, if that's a year from now, or longer, can you wait?

NPR had a story this morning on their show, Morning Edition, about how foreclosures are counted.

It turns out that they've been undercounted in rural counties by RealtyTrac, the company everyone's been using for these statistics.

HUD is now responsible for counting these, at least temporarily. I'll be digging into how we look locally with these new numbers.

A long, long time ago in what surely must have been an alternative universe, a government official told us that the mortgage crisis was self-contained. At the time it struck me as odd. It seemed to indicate a belief that the housing market was its own little corner of the economy, without much impact on the rest of our economy or our lives.

I haven't heard anyone use that phrase in awhile.

Now that we're facing a $700 billion bail out of the financial industry, here's the real problem with those earlier statements. First of all, they show a shocking lack of understanding of the importance of real estate in our economy. (By people who are paid a lot to know better!)

Second, the phrase, and the accompanying blather, was used to justify why there was no need to help out struggling home owners who were losing their homes to foreclosure.

And, so the hole got bigger, more people lost their homes. And, what do you know, it turns out that when enough people lose their homes, banks lose money! If enough homes get lost and enough banks get hurt, then there is reason for the government to step in and help.

I'm going to suggest that if the government had been willing to back stop struggling homeowners two years ago, we'd never been looking at this absurd $700 billion price tag now.

If I sound disgusted today, I am. The people who should have known better sat on their hands and watched this unfold. And, even now, as the bail out is being debated, there's a huge amount of push back about helping homeowners. Mind you this is the case even though I've heard several interviews with financial efforts admitting that foreclosures are really the root of the whole problem. So, we're going to put up $700 billion without addressing the root cause. Does this make sense to anyone?

Someone's going to have to help me make sense of this one! Feel free to share your wisdom!

Clients I'm working with who are trying to buy a home settled on the one they want this week. It's a foreclosure and, as with most foreclosure properties, it's sold as is. That means we can't make the offer contingent on a home inspection or a radon inspection.

Normally, what I advise clients to do in this situation is to have a home inspection done before writing an offer. But in this case the bank already had several offers and gave us a deadline if we wanted to submit an offer. We had less than 20 hours to do so.

It's impossible to get a radon inspection in that time. And, it's practically impossible to get a home inspection done that quickly. In the end, my clients decided to pass on writing an offer on this home.

Here's my dilemna. I advised them that it's certainly not prudent to buy a home without an inspection. And, that's true. But the deeper truth is that I'd have put an offer on this home without a home inspection. It's a pretty new home, built in 2005. I see nothing that worries me, nothing to suggest water or pest issues, my two biggest worries. I am, by nature, less risk averse than your average individual.  And, so, I'd have jumped in and made that offer.

But, it seems like the wrong advice to give to clients. First of all, let's all admit that we live in a litigious society. God forbid something seriously wrong shows up after they've moved in. These are very, very nice people. But that doesn't mean they wouldn't sue me for giving them bad advice and costing them a lot of money. And, that does impact what I say.

I also try very, very hard to never push my own personal likes, dislikes and personal biases on my clients. So, just because I'm willing to take that risk doesn't mean I assume that my clients have that same willingness to take risks with what may be their largest investment.

I'll admit that I remain a little torn about this. It's possible this would have been a good home for them. And I'll never know whether my advice was right or wrong. Don't you hate that?!

I promised a sneak peak at the August numbers. And, overall, they're looking good. The number of closed sales looks like it stayed pretty close to July numbers. But those were good numbers overall. Inventory seems to have dropped significantly in most markets. Final numbers will be out next week and I'll have a more detailed analysis then.

And, while I'm giving you impressions, here are a few things that hit me after showing dozens of homes over the weekend.

• The showing instructions provided for many of the real estate agents were often wrong. There were a lot of people in homes where the listing agent had said they were vacant or out of town. Surprises are never a good thing!
• Overall, foreclosures are priced significantly below the rest of the market. There are a few banks who still aren't getting it. But most have priced these homes to move! However, most foreclosures will require, at a minimum new paint and carpet throughout the house.
• Short sale pricing is all over the map. And, many of the properties where the bank has already approved the short sale price are going to actually sell for much less. Or, the banks will not accept the offers and it will end up in foreclosure (at a much lower price).
• There were a substantial number of short sales where it was clear an offer had disappeared after buyers gave in to frustration when the bank took too long to make a decision. I suspect the real surprise is that there weren't more of those!
• For the first time in a very long time, we ran into other agents with clients showing the same homes at about the same time. That's got to be a good sign!

As I continue to hit my head against the wall, the wall now known as banks, it's good to see it's not just me! Another blogger tells a story of the frustration out there.

And, in a related development, apparently an asset manager for a major bank was on a news program this week saying that the banks are deliberately slowing things down. This gentleman said that the purpose of doing this was to spread out the losses over time so that their numbers don't look as bad.

Well, it's the first rational explanation I've heard for the banks behavior. But I'd argue that it's only rational on its surfact. As soon as you begin to think about this a little more deeply you have to question that strategy.

Pricing will not, can not, recover until the foreclosure and short sale inventory gets cleared out. The longer that takes, the more prices fall. So, the properties that the bank moves to the back of their list will simply be worth a whole lot less, thus increasing their losses. Yes, they may be more spread out, but if the bottom line impact is worse, what have they gained?

Clearly I don't think like a banker!

It feels like we're all moving in slow motion these days in the real estate industry. Or maybe we're just wading through deep mud that's slowing us all down!

Or choose your own mental image here.

And, there's one segment of the real estate industry that's almost single handedly responsible for the slow down...lending institutions.

With foreclosure sales making up 2/3 of Culpeper sales last month and 1/2 of those in Fauquier, a lending institution is actually the seller in most of the sales happening these days. If you add in short sales, where the lender has to approve any deal you're definitely dealing with the vast majority of transactions.

Lenders are moving very slowly on these things. On one foreclosure sale I'm working on right now it took my buyer clients about three weeks to even get a response to their offer. And there are enough stories around this to fill up a blog!

But lenders aren't the only ones slowing up the process. Listing agents who handle foreclosures are typically specialists in this area. Foreclosures are about all they do. Lenders typically offer less compensation on each individual deal in exchange for providing large volumes of transactions. And, so you get agents who are completely overwhelmed by the number of listings they have, but can't afford or won't pay to get help.

I heard one story last week about a buyer's agent bypassing the listing agent when he wasn't getting anywhere and asking the settlement company to talk to the lender directly to get things done. A week after settlement had taken place the listing agent still claimed to be unable to get an answer from the bank on outstanding issues! (This agent was completely unaware the deal had already settled!) More likely the agent wasn't even trying to get an answer as the issue had fallen through the cracks.

Documenting everything I do, every conversation I have, every fax or e-mail I send and who I talk to have become even more important than usual.

If you're trying to buy in the midst of all this, be aware that you will need a lot of patience. You may very well get a good deal buying a foreclosure or short sale. But it may require that you have the ability to wait several months to get the deal closed and get into your new house. Keep that in mind as you search for your next home.

Me? I'm getting just a little tired of slogging through all this mud. But like everything else, it's cyclical and this too shall pass!

Lake Whippoorwill is a subdivision on the DC side of Warrenton, just off of 605. The tax records show 122 homes in this community. The homes here are mostly colonials, generally on lots between 1 and 2 acres.

There are some interesting things happening around the country in an effort to stop foreclosures.

The New York Times details the story of an Atlanta woman and her successful battle to save her home.

The Wall Street Journal takes a wider look at judicial activism in the foreclosure arena.

And, San Diego has decided it wants to become a foreclosure sanctuary.

One thing everyone should get from these articles, if you're facing foreclosure and want to save your home, talk to an attorney! You may have more options than you think.

The Culpeper numbers showed a healthy jump in sales year over year. I've been wondering what made up those numbers and so decided to do some additional analysis.

38 out of those 57 sales were foreclosures. That's two thirds of those sales.

While an increase in sales and a decrease in inventory always qualifies as good news, this probably doesn't warrant throwing a party to celebrate the end of the real estate downturn.

What this means is that two thirds of those homes sold at very steeply discounted prices. Here are a couple of examples:

This home was purchased brand new in October of 2005 for $345,000. It sold in June as a foreclosure for $149,000.

This home was purchased new in November of 2006 for $448,000. It sold in June as a foreclosure for $230,100.

Those are discounts of 57% and 48%. I analyzed 10 of these foreclosure sales. The average discount from the original sales price was 48.8%.

If your the guy who lives next door and you want to sell your home, how do you compete? Most homeowners can't or won't sell their home for half of what they bought it.

So, yes, it's good news that more homes are selling and inventory is shrinking. If they sell all the foreclosures, there's less downward pressure on pricing.

But right now, if you have to sell, be prepared to price your home very, very aggressively. The competition is based on price and it's vicious!

One quick note, I'll be in the Wildwood Forest subdivision in Amissville this Saturday afternoon from 1 to 3 p.m. If you've got a question on the real estate market in general, your home in particular or just want me to look into my crystal ball, let me know. I'm bringing free cloth shopping bags for everyone I talk to. Give me a call at 540-270-2742 if you'd like to chat while I'm in the neighborhood!

IndyMac was seized by federal regulators last weekend. They've just announced that they're stopping foreclosure on all their mortgages. This article in the Wall Street Journal details the takeover and this freeze.

Maybe we should be rooting for more banks to fail! If foreclosures fell significantly I suspect we'd see stabilization of home prices much more quickly.

If you're in trouble on your mortgage, start rooting for your bank to fail!

Let's face it, the MLS is not always the buyers' friend. On short sales and foreclosures especially, but even on a substantial number of other listings, there are often no photos. Sometimes there will be one or you'll get the property with photos of only the exterior and the land.

That's a shame in many ways. Buyers want to see photos. With gas prices what they are, it's very helpful to be able to screen properties without having to drive to every one.

It's also a shame for the sellers, in all honesty. Buyers in most cases will simply bypass listings without photos. Photos of a place that doesn't look all that great are still almost always better than none. That's because buyers will usually assume even worse things in their imaginations if there are no photos. And, if what they'll see when they get there is likely to cause them not to buy it, why not eliminate them up front. Do you really want people tromping through your home who won't be interested in buying it?

So, a local real estate broker, Frank Borges Llosa, has taken matters into his own hands. There's a new MLS, that looks at the world from the buyer's point of view. The idea is to ask agents to photograph and comment on vacant homes. These comments and photos will be added to the MLS data that's already available.

It's a terrific idea and I've already begun contributing. I'll be selecting homes to work on based on several criteria. First, I'm interested in the property! Secondly, input from clients, customers and blog readers that they'd like me to check out a specific property. And, third, I'll start closer to home and work my way outwards. That means I'll start with listings in Culpeper, Fauquier and Rappahannock counties.

Let me know if you've got a property you'd like me to take a look at! And, continue to watch http://www.FranklyMLS.com for more updates.

People talk to me all the time about real estate. Obviously customer and clients do that. But people who barely know me but know I'm an agent also do that. That's a good thing! I like hearing what's on people's minds and how they're seeing the current market.

Lately I've been hearing some things that don't quite ring true. So I thought I'd set the record straight.

First of all there's the current chart topper "I know that a bank will take any offer just to get rid of a foreclosure." It's a lovely thought, but just not true. In fact, there is quite a range of policy on this among the various lenders. While, in theory, no bank wants to hold a property a day longer than they have to, each lender has its own policy as to what's an acceptable offer. That may be a percentage below the listing price or it may be based on a percentage loss they are willing to absorb. It may be a combination of factors, including how long the property has been on the market.

Unfortunately, no one hard and fast rule covers this. But be assured, I've seen banks reject lowball offers, even perfectly reasonable ones!

Here's what sellers tell me a lot these days. "I know you're probably right about the price, but I just want to try it at this higher price for a little while."

Here's the problem. Prices are declining. So, while you're sitting on an overpriced listing that no one comes to see, prices have gone down further. Now, just to catch up to the market, you need to come down further in price than where I originally suggested. All you've done is reduce your likely profit.

And, of course, real estate agents have their own misconceptions. The one you'll hear most often these days is "It's a great time to buy a house." One agent last week told me he's never stopped saying that! I'm guessing his clients who listened to him a year or two ago may not be thanking him now!

It's a great time to buy a house if you're likely to stay in it at least five years. Given current market conditions and where I think we're going, I still won't guarantee anybody will make money in five years. But I think, if you include the tax advantages, you have an excellent chance of breaking even or even a little better.

If you're likely to get transferred in a year or two, it is clearly not a good time to buy! If you're looking to flip a house for a quick profit it is definitely a very bad time to buy! If you're looking for a long term investment, say a rental income property, it's a very good time to buy.

And, as always, what you buy and where you buy make a huge difference!

Last week, in the House of Representatives, they finally voted on the "Foreclosure Prevention Act of 2008". This bill is designed to help stem the tide of foreclosures. It would not only help people who are in danger of losing their homes, but also their neighbors who are tired of seeing the value of their own homes plummet.

It is very interesting to note that the counties hardest hit by the foreclosure crisis, not one of the representatives from Virginia voted to support this bill.

Representatives Cantor, Davis, Wolf and Wittman all voted no on this bill.

Let's be clear about what they voted against.

This bill would have allowed homeowners to stay in their homes, restructured their mortgage to reduce the amount owed to more accurately reflect actual values and guaranteed those loans through the FHA. It would have rewarded buyers of foreclosed properties with tax credits, thus helping all homeowners.

It's tough to see what could possibly have induced them to vote no. That's especially true when their Republican counterparts in other hard hit areas of the country crossed party lines to support the bill.

I know the argument about not wanting the people who were responsible to suffer to help those who were not. But NEWS FLASH: if you were very financially responsible and because of all the foreclosures in the area your home prices are plummeting you're still paying the price.

The question isn't whether those of us who were responsible pay for those who weren't. The question is do all of us want to preserve the value of our homes?

So, does party loyalty count more than constituent pain?

There was a story in yesterday's Culpeper Start Exponent about a couple in Culpeper county who are losing their home to foreclosure. It's just one of the many painful stories out there. This couple is right in saying they're not alone. Not even close!

The article also briefly discusses where the foreclosures are concentrated. As you'd expect, most of them are in the recent developments in Culpeper. Lakeview, the largest of those developments, is the hardest hit. But the other new developments along 522 aren't far behind.

The Federal Government, through the Hope Now initiative, has been painting a surprisingly rosy picture of the number of homeowners they've helped.

The real numbers show a lot less reason for optimism.

Unless someone figures out a way to keep people in their homes and stop the downward spiral of prices, we've got a ways to go in this downturn.

The preliminary numbers I've looked at for April confirm that things are not looking up. More on that next week.

We're going to look at Prince William County statistics today.

Prince William is different than the other counties I look at here. Its numbers are better by far in almost every category. If you were only looking at Prince William you could be forgiven for thinking things had definitely turned around.

There are 5757 properties currently for sale. And, inventory is one of the few indicators that show the market headed in the wrong direction. Last month there were 5573 homes for sale. In March a year ago there were only 4527 homes available. 1631 new listings came on the market in March. Last month there were 1595. A year ago in March we saw 1764 new listings.

502 sales closed in March of this year. That's up 49% over last month! And, if we look a year ago, when 418 houses sold, we're up 20%. Again, year over year numbers are the more meaningful statistic.

Even better are the number of new contracts written. 820 new contracts were written in March of 2008 as opposed to 698 in February. That's a 17 percent jump. Again, I don't give that a lot of weight because things should be getting better. It's spring! But the really good news is that last year at this time there were only 508 sales. That's a whopping 61% year over year increase.

Now, here's why! Prices have dropped dramatically. The average sales price in March of this year was $299,586. The average sales price a year ago was $408,574. That's a price drop of 26%. Compare that the Fauquier County average sales price of $318K and you begin to see some of the reason homes aren't selling as well there. Do you want to commute those extra miles with gas prices headed towards $4 a gallon and traffic getting worse?

Also, keep in mind that one of the reasons prices have dropped faster there is the larger number of foreclosures. Banks will do what they need to do to get the houses sold and off their books.

The number of new construction listings is substantially down frm last year. The number of sales of new construction is relatively flat.

More than any other local county, there are signs of hope in Prince William County. Yes, the price drops are steep, but it's getting the market moving. Sellers in other counties should take note.

OK, I'm annoyed.

Here's my problem. The data on the listings for short sales and bank foreclosures is so often wrong or just missing!

I understand completely that agents are generally making less money on these listings. And, it makes sense that you're not going to spend a lot of money advertising them. But surely some sense of professional pride should demand that you do a complete job of putting the basic listing information in the MLS.

I showed a condo in Culpeper that was listed as "Fee Simple" for form of ownership.

For those of you who don't know, basically condo ownership means that you own from the interior paint, inwards. So, you don't own the walls, roof, yard, etc. That's a big difference from a property where you have maintenance responsibilities for all of the above. It's a pretty big listing mistake.

Now, I'm annoyed because I looked stupid. I searched for condos in that community that were for sale and missed this one because it wasn't listed as a condo. I'm partially mad at myself for not thinking to broaden the search criteria under the assumption it had been listed incorrectly.

And, I hate, hate, hate looking stupid. I really hate being wrong!

There! I feel better now!