Fauquier County is working to get funds from the Neighborhood Stabilization Program. The latest information says that they're seeking a grant of $2 million with which to purchase foreclosed homes. They also acknowledge that they're more likely to get only $1 million.

There are certainly still a fair number of foreclosed homes around. Out of the 75 homes sold in Fauquier last month, 28 of them were foreclosures. Out of those 28, 15 would fall into the price range (130K to 250K) that the county is looking at.

But the number of foreclosures in the lower price ranges is shrinking and they are often snapped up fast, sometimes these days, even with multiple offers. It will be interesting to see if a government entity can be nimble enough to compete with the first time buyers who are snapping these up.

The other complication here is the appraisal requirement for the program. In order to qualify for the program the Fauquier can not pay more than 85% of the appraised value of the home. Since the typical homebuyer can get a mortgage as long as the appraisal is 100% or more of the purchase price the bank will certainly find the county's offer more risky. If I'm the asset manager for the bank and I had multiple offers, I'd almost never choose the county offer.

I say all this not to trash the Neighborhood Stabilization Program. It was a good idea. The problem has been in the execution.

While in October 2008 the county was shown as having 228 bank owned properties., the MLS currently lists only 29 for sale in Fauquier County.

In the time it took to roll the program out and talk the counties into participating and then have them put together packages, the worst of the crisis has passed.

The program will still do some good if they're able to actually buy homes. It will help working families afford a home of their own in what is still a relatively high cost living area.

But no one should believe that this program will have any impact on stabilizing market conditions in any neighborhood. Time and the market appear to have already taken care of that.

Short sales are a pain! You're going to hear that from any real estate agent you talk to, or more likely, even stronger language.

The relationship between banks and real estate agents on short sales has gotten to the point where you could call it adversarial. And, it shouldn't be that way. We should be working together towards a common goal, finding a deal that works for everyone and getting it closed before the house goes into foreclosure.

The thing is, I don't think it needed to be this way. Both banks and real estate agents should have sat down at the beginning of this wave of short sales and worked out some things. Here are some ways the outcomes and the working relationships could have been improved.

• Each bank should have a package of it's procedures in working with real estate agents and owners on short sales.
• Banks should have a link on their main web site that provides real estate agents with everything they need to process a short sale.
• Lending institutions and real estate companies and/or associations should have set up joint seminars where agents and lenders could meet and develop working relationships.
• Banks should have easy access on their web sites to information for their customers who are contemplating going through the short sale process.

No one item here would have completely fixed the problems with the current system. But any and all of them would have helped tremendously. And, this list is just a starting point. There are lots more possibilities.

This is a broken system. A little planning up front might have saved us all a lot of grief!

Fellow agent and blogger Danilo Bogdanovic just wrote a post on Agent Genius suggesting that perhaps the lack of inventory is actually a plot by the banks to all withhold their foreclosure inventory and thus drive up prices.

Danilo uses the word "Collusion". If you're a buyer right now you may find this persuasive. But I'm not convinced it's all an evil plot.

If the banks are fans of "Buy Low, Sell High" it makes sense for them to hold on to assets until prices improve. And, as inventory has gotten scarce prices are starting to improve.

A banker friend has also suggested that any publicly traded company would logically spread out losses so that they don't all show up on the balance sheet in the same quarter.

And, given what I've seen dealing up close and personal with banks on short sales and foreclosures for a couple of years now, I doubt most of them are capable of the planning that would be necessary for this level of collusion!

If you're a homeowner you're probably thinking this sounds like the best idea ever. If the banks put one or two foreclosures up for sale each year, your home might actually begin to appreciate again!

Either way, I suspect we're giving the banks way too much credit in thinking collusion is responsible for what we're seeing right now.

There have been some positive signs lately in the real estate market. And, being an optimist at heart, I probably tend to focus on those pieces of news. (Let's face it, it's easier to get up and do this every day if I'm optimistic!)

But I don't want to be an unthinking cheerleader for the industry. The news is truly mixed right now and I want to highlight a couple of pieces today that give you the other side of the picture.

Bloomberg has a piece today on the latest mortgage delinquence/foreclosure numbers. To say the numbers aren't pretty is to put a little too good a spin on it. The delinquency rate and the numbe of loans entering foreclosure are both the highest since 1972. And, these are not sub-prime loans. We're talking about the loans any lender, in any market, would have thought were good. These are foreclosures occurring because of a combination of a terrible economy and the huge decrease in the value of the homes. If you lose your job and your house is worth half of what it was 5 years ago; even if you put 20% down, there's a good chance you've got a problem. If you have to sell quickly there may not be buyers at a price that gives you even enough to pay off your mortgage. Foreclosures continue to drive prices down and they continue to come onto the market at an alarming rate. Even locally, whether you're talking Prince William, Fauquier or Culpeper counties, the foreclosures are a continuing problem.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal (subscription required) takes a look at whether a home is even a good long term investment. The article is not exactly an encouragement to buy instead of rent.

Here's the heart of their argument:

Yet look at the numbers. Since 1987, when the Case-Shiller index of 10 major cities begins, it's risen from an index value of 63 to 151. Annual return: Just 4.1% a year. During that period, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer prices rose by 3% a year. Net result: Home prices produced a real return of just 1.15% a year over inflation over that time.

Critics may point out that the analysis is unfair -- after all, it starts counting near the peak of the 1980s housing boom. Fair enough. Look at the performance since, say, early 1994, when home prices were near a historic trough. Surely someone who bought then has made a bundle.

Not necessarily. Since then the ten-city index has risen from a value of 76 to 151. Annual return: 4.7%. Inflation over that period: 2.5%. That's still only a real return of 2.2% a year above inflation.

They go on to add that a home could cost you an additional 2% in things like property taxes, insurance, repairs, maintenance, etc.

I'm not saying I agree with their analysis. They admit that focusing on these 10 cities is not necessarily a representative sample. But I do think that not everyone should own a home and that it's important to think it through carefully before you buy, especially now.

The nationwide numbers out today show that, year over year, home prices continue to decline. That decline was over 18% nationally. Because everyone hears national numbers, rather than local, the tendency is to assume that whatever you're hearing is also the situation locally.

Year over year, our numbers look worse than the national average. The latest numbers available from the local multiple listing service show year over year price declines between 23-32%. But that's only one piece of the picture.

If you're buying a foreclosed home or possibly even a short sale, you may not feel the pricing power you were led to believe you'd have. You see, all the buyers are looking in the same price range. So, even if there are 25% fewer buyers than there were a couple of years ago, if they're all looking at properties, say, on the western end of Prince William County under $350K there is little or no buyer leverage.

So, the pricing picture is considerably more complicated than what you hear in the national press. I'm not blaming them. You can't write a coherent article about prices everywhere! Just be aware that the picture here is a little more nuanced.

The other piece of information in the home price report was that prices nationwide are now at 2002 levels. I suspect we're not quite that low yet. But I haven't yet had an opportunity to do an analysis. I am seeing people who've been in their homes five years or more still under water.

And, if you're wondering when we bounce back up, this Bloomberg article wasn't particularly optimistic:

 “There are very few V-shaped recoveries in the history of real estate, and this one is likely to be even slower because of the size of the bubble,” said Robert Shiller, the Yale University professor who, with economist Karl Case, created home price indexes in the 1980s now used by Standard & Poor’s.

In short, don't expect any rebound in prices soon. I believe from a price perspective we'll bounce along the bottom for quite some time, perhaps a couple of years before we begin very slow appreciation.

If you're looking for a ray of sunshine, one analyst on CNBC suggested yesterday that we could fix the housing problem any time we wanted by increasing the number of immigrants.

April results are in and for the first time in quite awhile we're seeing a small uptick in inventory in most counties. It's not large enough to be a concern at this point. In fact, given that we're in the busy spring/summer season, it's surprisingly small.

In Culpeper there are currently 494 homes for sale. That's still less than we had in January. And it's a huge improvement over the 800+ homes for sale there a year ago. Sales remain strong with 62 homes sold as opposed to 48 last year at this time.

Fauquier remains flatter. Inventory also rose slightly here. There are 569 homes for sale here now as opposed to 556 a month ago. And we're still much better off than April of 2008 when there were 764 homes for sale. But sales aren't much better than a year ago. 54 homes sold in Fauquier County in April. 49 were sold in this period a year ago.

Prince William was the exception to the increase in inventory. It continues to shrink there; good news for sellers, not good news for first time home buyers. There are 2944 homes for sale in Prince William county, roughly half of what was for sale there a year ago at 5880. Sales decreased very slightly month over month: 741 this month vs 750 last month. But homes are still selling much faster than they were a year ago when only 639 sold in April.

Rappahannock County showed a very large jump, from a percentage point of view. There are now 89 homes for sale here vs 76 last month. 27 new properties came on the market, a lot for this small county. That's the highest number of new listings coming on the market in one month in the last four years. But the number of contracts written also jumped to 5 even though sales fell to 2 last month. Large jumps in inventory in Rappahannock previously have resulted in a subsequent withdrawal of many of those listings as people tested the market and then changed their mind about selling. We'll see if the same scenario plays out this time around.

Overall, the market appears to continue to recovery. The only worry here is the seemingly unending stream of foreclosures coming on the market. Between foreclosures and short sales there appears to be no likelihood (except in Prince William) of price increases any time soon.

A Reuters article this week suggests that Gainesville is a dying community.

I think the article gets some things right and others wrong.

Gainesville home sales are jumping. And in the lower prices we're seeing bidding wars and/or multiple offers. That doesn't signal to me that the entire community is dying. And, yes, there are still a lot more foreclosures to come. If they come at a measured pace the market will quickly absorb them.

On the other hand, I continue to see buyers less willing to do the long commute. So, unless the pool of jobs within a reasonable driving distance of Gainesville increases, the community has some tough times ahead.

And, the further out you go (think Fauquier County) the more commuters have opted out.

Are new, good jobs going to be created in these communities? Or, are we simply going to be smaller?

In the tough seller's market of the last few years a lot of sellers have tested the waters by putting their house up for sale, and, in the end, retreated. All those houses that will theoretically come back on the market when the market improves are called shadow inventory.

We're looking at two basic kinds of shadow inventory. The first is individual owners. They want to sell, maybe even already tried and are just waiting for the right moment to put their home on the market.

The second kind of shadow inventory is foreclosure inventory. The banks are reportedly sitting on 600,000 homes nationwide that they've already foreclosed on, but aren't yet putting on the market.

Both of these categories have the potential to dramatically increase inventory, which has been steadily dropping for at least a year now.

The thing is, I'm not overly worried and I think the danger has been exaggerated.

Yes, there are a lot of homeowners who still want to sell. But it's not just the low number of sales that keep them from trying. They also don't want to sell at these prices. And, if they're going to wait for prices to recover even a quarter of what they've lost, I think they're looking at waiting several years. Some of those homeowners will have changed their mind by then. They'll remodel the house to suit their needs and they'll stay. Those that do still sell will not do so in one huge mass. Some will have a higher tolerance for lower prices and will sell sooner. Others will likely wait a year or two or three. I don't believe there will be some magical month where all this "shadow" inventory pops onto the market at once.

The foreclosure properties are a bigger concern. But I'm still not convinced it will be a huge problem. A lot of those 600,000 homes will be in CA, FL, NV and MI, places hit harder than we were. So, the numbers will likely be smaller than people anticipate. Secondly, the bulk of these are likely to be at the lower price ranges. We've actually got a shortage of inventory at those price levels. In places like Prince William County and even Culpeper County, a lot of inventory would be absorbed very quickly by first time buyers. And, I believe the banks are deliberate spreading out the foreclosures in order to manage their losses. It's not in their interests to dump everything on the market at once.

So when someone tries to scare you with all the shadow inventory waiting to hit the market, take it with a grain of salt. It may not be all that bad!

I mentioned in a recent blog post that the Commonwealth of Virginia is desperately seeking a home for monies from the federal government, as part of the Neighborhood Stabilization Program, designed to help localities buy up foreclosed properties.

Hallelujah! Fauquier County is going after that money! Kristen Slawter has been working on this for the county and will be putting together a grant application of up to $2 million to buy properties in Remington and Bealeton.

I hope there's a lot of local support for this effort. There is an informational meeting being held at 6 p.m. on Wednesday, April 15th at 10 Hotel Street in Warrenton.

These homes would be rehabbed if necessary and then sold to local low or moderate income residents. There's a huge need for more affordable housing in the county. If we can get people homes and reduce the number of foreclosures I think we've got a win/win for everyone!

According to an article in Sunday's New York Times, it's not just homeowners that are walking away.

Apparently more and more banks are deciding some properties just don't have enough value to be worth the foreclosure process. When you consider that NAR (National Association of REALTORS) has estimated that the foreclosure process can cost a bank $60,000, properties at the low end of the market quickly become more trouble/expense than they're worth.

Of course, if you're a municipality with vacant, deteriorating homes where no one is paying any property taxes, you've got a big problem.

We haven't yet seen much of this in our area. Prince William would, perhaps have been most vulnerable to this with their high volume of low cost condos going into foreclosure. But the prices fell fast enough and demand jumped enough that the problem has been dodged.

There seems to be no chance of seeing this kind of thing in Fauquier or Rappahannock Counties. Culpeper does have some foreclosed townhouses selling below $100,000. But the numbers are very small and there seems to be enough demand in that price range to absorb what comes on the market.

Despite what you read in the news media and hear from banks, in Culpeper County, at least, there does not appear to be much slowing down of foreclosures.

There were 78 new listings in Culpeper last month. 38 of those were foreclosures. Another 17 were short sales, meaning the house is worth less than it will sell for. That's 55 listings or just over 70% of new listings being bank owned or influenced.

It's going to be tough to get to a stabilized market as long as that's true. While Prince William county appears well on its way to a more normal real estate market; Culpeper county clearly still has  way to go.

So, what hapened to all the banks who were supposed to be holding off on any more foreclosures?

In general, we're seeing a long lag time between a foreclosure happening and that particular home being put up for sale. So, most of these homes that came on the market in February probably actually went into foreclosure some time in 2008.

If the banks really are following a moratorium on new foreclosures, I'd expect to see the impact of that in the April/May time frame. Will owner occupied homes then start to come back on the market to fill that void? I suspect that most will hold off waiting to see some evidence of appreciation in values.

That may mean the tightest inventory we've seen in Culpeper during the spring and summer for at least three years. And, if that happens, there may, finally be some good news for sellers.

Good news in this case simply means a stabilization of prices. I think we're still a long way from much in the way of seeing rising prices!

The details are out on the government's latest attempt to help stem the tide of foreclosures:

I especially like the CNBC hosts' comments at the beginning about losing a few states to get rid of the whole mess. I think they're seriously delusional. I know that would be news to people in Culpeper Virginia.

This plan will help some more people. That's good news. Whether it will help enough remains to be seen.

While bargain hunters have been avidly focused on foreclosures and, to a lesser extent, short sales; another segment of the market also offers some spectacular bargains.

Builders who have inventory already built want to get rid of that inventory quickly. In this area, builders haven't been building spec homes for some time now. These homes are generally homes where a contract fell through. Occasionally, you'll see a model home for sale where the builder has finished building in that subdivision.

These homes can be tremendous deals. Builders don't want and usually, can't afford to sit on inventory. It ties up cash they need to pay off loans and move forward with other projects. And, so they're typically priced attractively to start and an even better deal can be negotiated.

Unlike typical new construction, these homes may have the basement already finished. And you're likely to see a fair number of upgrades already included. And, if you don't like exactly what you see, don't be afraid to ask for what you want. While they're not going to gut the house and redo it to suit your taste, there is probably room for some changes.

True, there aren't as many of these bargains as there are foreclosures. But you also don't have as many of the problems as arise with a typical foreclosure. The odds of you settling on time and being in your new home when you expect to are exponentially higher with new construction. You're likely to receive an answer to your offer much more quickly. And there's much less likelihood of last minute deed problems.

There are still builders with inventory in most local counties, including Fauquier, Culpeper, Prince William and Loudon.

If I was a buyer in the market to buy, I'd be looking for some of these gems.

Virginia was awarded $38.7 million from the federal government to buy foreclosed homes. This was part of the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008. And, Virginia's been trying to get rid of it ever since!

The program is called the Neighborhood Stabilization Program. The funds are designed to allow local communities to purchase foreclosed homes and then to rehabilitate, resell and/or redevelop these properties to stem the decline of housing values in a neighborhood.

And, even better, it's then possible to combine this with other programs to help local police, teachers, firefighters, etc. to become homeowners.

So, why is the Commonwealth having so much trouble giving this money away?

They recently sent representatives to the mid-year Virginia Association of REALTORs meeting to drum up interest among real estate agents. The Commonwealth has sponsored a series of seminars around the state to inform localities about the program and how to apply. And, still, much of the money goes unused.

I know it's not because local communities don't have a problem with foreclosures! Ask anyone in Lakeview in Culpeper if they'd like to see some homes bought up by the government to help stabilize housing prices!

So, I'm going to theorize why the money sits there.

1. Local governments view the burden of taking this project on as requiring too many resources. There is, of course, paperwork to be submitted. Appropriate neighborhoods must be found and data on the property values and vacancy rates obtained. The requirements state that a qualified pool of buyers must be available. Once homes are bought with this money, they must be rehabbed and then sold. Potential buyers must be screened, etc. This probably all sounds overwhelming to local governments already spread thin.

Solution: Partner with local real estate agents, Habitat for Humanity and other local groups who can contribute expertise. Form a task force to make this happen. I'll volunteer my time to make this work!

2. A belief that there aren't any neighborhoods that qualify. They're looking at neighborhoods that have somewhere in the neighborhood of 10% foreclosure rate.

Solution: But "neighborhood" is defined by the local entity and as long as you can justify why you chose that as a "neighborhood" it shouldn't be too hard to find areas that would qualify. Heck, last time I checked there were enough foreclosures in Rappahannock County to qualify!

3. The word hasn't gotten out and local governments don't know about the program.

Solution: I'm doing my bit here. I hope other bloggers will add their voices. Local press can help. And local communities of individuals who might benefit, i.e. teachers, police, fire fighters, can let their local governments know they'd like to see this program used here.

I'll admit I'm disappointed. I am underwhelmed by this package.

Will it help some additional homeowners? Yes, absolutely. Will this have a serious impact on the overall housing market? I seriously doubt it.

First, the plan is that if you owe more than your home is worth, you'll potentially be able to refinance at a lower interest rate. There are financial incentives to both banks and mortgage servicers to do these loan modifications.

Here's where I see the problems.

First of all, the new first mortgage must not exceed 105% of the current value of the home. The problem is, most of the people in trouble are much further in the hole than this. If you bought your home three years ago, put almost no cash down and have seen the value of your home decline by 40-50% this plan is of no help to you. And, that's a pretty common scenario in this area.

This plan is still entirely voluntary on the part of the lenders. Like every other plan announced thus far, it depends far too much on banks being willing to participate. There is a little carrot here, but it's a very small carrot that seems unlikely to be very effective.

The plan still does not require any reduction in principal. Until the banks are required to reduce the principal, to take their lumps, I don't believe this problem gets fixed.

And, maybe just as importantly, as long as the banks books continue to not reflect the real value of homes, I don't believe they can ever recover, nor will their stock prices.

It's a wishy washy plan and I'm disappointed.

The $8000 tax credit in the stimulus plan will do more good than this.

2/20 7:30 p.m. update:

I've been reminded that the details aren't going to be available until March 4th.

I've also been reminded that there will be a mandatory component for those banks that took TARP money.

I hope I'm wrong and this is wildly successful!

The Huffington Post's lead story today is a suggestion that it's past time for the government to pay less attention to helping banks and more to helping homeowners.

The story is dead on in its cataloging of the ill effects of foreclosures on the rest of the economy.

And, if there were no foreclosures the banks would not be in trouble in the first place!!

I'm stilling trying to figure out why this hasn't sunk in to anyone but Sheila Bair at the FDIC.

I'd also like to know when Virginia will adopt the Philadelphia Residential Mortgage Foreclosure Diversion Program.

If tomorrow's announcement by the President isn't "good and solid and big and bold" I hope homeowners everywhere scream bloody murder!

It's time to take a look at what the market results for January had to say. And, once again the picture remains positive if you're looking for good sales numbers.

In Culpeper the sales for January dropped by about 50% from the previous month. But lest you think that's a negative, that's still about 30% higher than at this time last year. Inventory continues to shrink, down to about a 16 month supply right now. And, based on the number of contracts written, things continue to sell. This is all good news for sellers. The bad news remains that what is selling is primarily foreclosures and they're selling at a steep discount. The average sales price fell about 40% year over year. And, as long as the foreclosures continue to hit the market, pricing will remain depressed. More on the picture later.

In Fauquier County we see the same kind of patterns with inventory falling to a 15 month supply. Sales fell there in January as well, but again, that may have more to do with the holidays than with any specific market forces. And, the number of contracts written remains strong. In Fauquier sales prices were more stable in January, falling only 4% year over year. That's one month's data so it's too soon to tell if that's an anomaly. With 15 months of inventory I'd be surprised to see any significant strengthening of prices in the short term.

Prince William County is the place to be if you're a seller, but may be becoming problematic for buyers. We're down to a five months supply of inventory. That indicates we've got a pretty balanced supply of inventory there. And, my experiences there bear that out. As I was showing homes this weekend in Prince William, a smaller percentage of what I showed were foreclosures or short sales. But prices are still down significantly, 34% year over year.

Rapphannock County also saw inventory shrink this month, falling to 73 homes for sale. That's a pretty fast turn around from the high of 103 we saw in October. Some of that is attributable to sales, but much more of it is from properties being withdrawn from the market. And, even in Rappahannock County there are foreclosure sales. One occurred just down the road from my house this month.

The real estate market may be about to see some changes, however. In anticipation of the President's announcement on Wednesday of a plan to help the real estate market, many banks have now announced foreclosure moratoriums. The banks include giants such as Citi and Bank of America. And Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had already announced foreclosure moratoriums of their own. With only five months of inventory available now in Prince William County we may be on the verge of seeing some price stabilization at the very least over the next couple of months. Depending on what happens after the moratorium there's even the potential for some price increases.

If I were buying in Prince William county I'd be tempted to jump sooner rather than later. As I believe this is the best combination of inventory, prices and incentives you're likely to find for the next several months. In Fauquier and Culpeper inventory levels are high enough that I think you could justify waiting a couple of months to see what will happen. And, in Prince William, it's possible that next fall the edge would go back to the buyers again. But that's a little too far out to predict without knowing what actions we'll take from DC.

Today is the big day, finally. Washington, DC is filled with hordes of people. And a new president takes the oath of office today. I think he's got his hands full!

But once all the pomp and circumstance is over today; once all the tourists go home, what can we expect from this new administration with regards to the real estate market?

First of all, the President-elect's team has given every indication that they intend to intervene in the real estate market and will do so aggressively. So I expect quick, decisive action on this front. What kinds of things will we see?

• A plan to get the bad assets off the banks books. This now looks likely to happen in the form of a government-created, government-owned "bad" bank.
• A strong push and some serious arm twisting to get banks to begin lending again once those assets are off their books.
• A commitment to spend at least $50 billion in TARP funds on the real estate recovery.
• Additional tax credits for first time home buyers in an effort to stimulate demand.
• Additional efforts to stem the tide of foreclosures. This may take the form of:

Buying up second mortgages.

Strengthening the existing government programs to modify mortgages.

Allowing all bankruptcy judges to modify existing mortgages.

Temporary foreclosure moratorium.

And, the list is probably longer and growing.

What encourages me is the firm commitment to getting this done, to getting the real estate market stabilized, one way or another. If a real commitment is half the battle in any endeavor, you have to feel good about the future.

So, yes, I'm encouraged. I think we'll see some things happening in the next few weeks that could make a difference. I'm rooting for the new administration and I know I'm not alone.

I know they're going to keep trying until they get it done. I believe that attitude will make a difference.

Call me hopeful!

The recent market trends continued in December without much significant change. Prices and inventories continue to fall, this month even in Rappahannock.

Prince William county stands out as inventory there is now down to four months' supply. That's astonishing given the state of the overall real estate market, the economy and how many foreclosures there have been. With only four months of inventory it's hard to see prices falling much more in Prince William. But there are probably still some owner occupied properties there that are overpriced.

Leaving Rappahannock aside for the moment, Fauquier has the biggest inventory problem at the moment. They're still sitting with 12 months of inventory. There have been fewer foreclosures there and sellers of non-foreclosures have been unwilling to make the necessary price cuts to compete with what's going on in surrounding counties. But prices in Fauquier are unsustainable, even at current levels. If you can buy a townhouse in Manassas or Gainesville for the same price, or cheaper, than one in Warrenton, you're likely to choose the shorter commute.

Culpeper's inventory continues to drop, slowly but surely. Inventory there is down to nine months. While we continued to see bidding wars on foreclosures in lower price ranges in early December, there's some anecdotal evidence that traffic has slowed in the last two weeks. It'll be interesting to see if January's numbers show any change to current trends.

It's also interesting to note that banks have a lot of additional foreclosures sitting, waiting to be put on the market. I suspect they're still trying to spread those losses over multiple quarters. But it's hard to determine how bad the foreclosure problem still is when you know there's another shoe out there, waiting to drop.

Rappahannock's inventory declined spectacularly in December. Some of that may be people taking their homes off the market during the holidays. And, there were 6 properties that went under contract in December. So, January's numbers may give us a better feel for what to expect going forward in Rappahannock.

The other thing to watch in the next month is what steps the government takes, if any, to intervene in the real estate market. Check this space next month to see what those impacts were.

How will 2009 play out? I can only speculate. In truth, this feels like one of the toughest years to predict. But I am undaunted! I'm going out on that limb to make some predictions.

I need to preface my predictions with a word about the overall real estate situation. There are two possibilities in 2009. The government could intervene in a meaningful way in the real estate markets. (Other than the Fed action earlier this month to say they’ll buy mortgage backed securities, federal intervention up until this point has definitely been NOT meaningful!) If they do that, the forecast, while not rosy, is for a market that’s beginning to stabilize. The other alternative is that the federal government does nothing about the real estate markets, the overall economy continues deeper into decline and there’s no end in sight. That produces a markedly more pessimistic forecast.