Despite what you read in the news media and hear from banks, in Culpeper County, at least, there does not appear to be much slowing down of foreclosures.

There were 78 new listings in Culpeper last month. 38 of those were foreclosures. Another 17 were short sales, meaning the house is worth less than it will sell for. That's 55 listings or just over 70% of new listings being bank owned or influenced.

It's going to be tough to get to a stabilized market as long as that's true. While Prince William county appears well on its way to a more normal real estate market; Culpeper county clearly still has  way to go.

So, what hapened to all the banks who were supposed to be holding off on any more foreclosures?

In general, we're seeing a long lag time between a foreclosure happening and that particular home being put up for sale. So, most of these homes that came on the market in February probably actually went into foreclosure some time in 2008.

If the banks really are following a moratorium on new foreclosures, I'd expect to see the impact of that in the April/May time frame. Will owner occupied homes then start to come back on the market to fill that void? I suspect that most will hold off waiting to see some evidence of appreciation in values.

That may mean the tightest inventory we've seen in Culpeper during the spring and summer for at least three years. And, if that happens, there may, finally be some good news for sellers.

Good news in this case simply means a stabilization of prices. I think we're still a long way from much in the way of seeing rising prices!

It's time to take a look at what the market results for January had to say. And, once again the picture remains positive if you're looking for good sales numbers.

In Culpeper the sales for January dropped by about 50% from the previous month. But lest you think that's a negative, that's still about 30% higher than at this time last year. Inventory continues to shrink, down to about a 16 month supply right now. And, based on the number of contracts written, things continue to sell. This is all good news for sellers. The bad news remains that what is selling is primarily foreclosures and they're selling at a steep discount. The average sales price fell about 40% year over year. And, as long as the foreclosures continue to hit the market, pricing will remain depressed. More on the picture later.

In Fauquier County we see the same kind of patterns with inventory falling to a 15 month supply. Sales fell there in January as well, but again, that may have more to do with the holidays than with any specific market forces. And, the number of contracts written remains strong. In Fauquier sales prices were more stable in January, falling only 4% year over year. That's one month's data so it's too soon to tell if that's an anomaly. With 15 months of inventory I'd be surprised to see any significant strengthening of prices in the short term.

Prince William County is the place to be if you're a seller, but may be becoming problematic for buyers. We're down to a five months supply of inventory. That indicates we've got a pretty balanced supply of inventory there. And, my experiences there bear that out. As I was showing homes this weekend in Prince William, a smaller percentage of what I showed were foreclosures or short sales. But prices are still down significantly, 34% year over year.

Rapphannock County also saw inventory shrink this month, falling to 73 homes for sale. That's a pretty fast turn around from the high of 103 we saw in October. Some of that is attributable to sales, but much more of it is from properties being withdrawn from the market. And, even in Rappahannock County there are foreclosure sales. One occurred just down the road from my house this month.

The real estate market may be about to see some changes, however. In anticipation of the President's announcement on Wednesday of a plan to help the real estate market, many banks have now announced foreclosure moratoriums. The banks include giants such as Citi and Bank of America. And Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had already announced foreclosure moratoriums of their own. With only five months of inventory available now in Prince William County we may be on the verge of seeing some price stabilization at the very least over the next couple of months. Depending on what happens after the moratorium there's even the potential for some price increases.

If I were buying in Prince William county I'd be tempted to jump sooner rather than later. As I believe this is the best combination of inventory, prices and incentives you're likely to find for the next several months. In Fauquier and Culpeper inventory levels are high enough that I think you could justify waiting a couple of months to see what will happen. And, in Prince William, it's possible that next fall the edge would go back to the buyers again. But that's a little too far out to predict without knowing what actions we'll take from DC.