September's numbers are the kind to make you "ooooh" and "aaaah". They're that good!

In Culpeper, Fauquier and Prince William counties, inventory continues to fall and sales continue to rise.

In Culpeper inventory is down from 823 at this time last year to a measley 632 this year. Sales doubled year over year, 27 last year and 54 this September. And the trend looks to continue with 72 new contracts written in September!

There's good news for those of you in Fauquier as well. Inventory has declined from 832 last year to 696 at the end of September. While sales didn't quite double here they did a very respectable increase from 38 a year ago to 53 now. And new contracts soared to 83.

In Prince William things have changed so much that you've got to feel sorry for the buyers. Total inventory has declined from 5674 to 4489. Meanwhile sales have almost tripled from 327 to 934. 1059 new contracts have been written in Prince William. Multiple offers on foreclosures are now routine there. And bidding wars are back, if the house is in good enough condition and priced cheaply enough.

Rappahannock County is the rain cloud amidst all this sunshine. Inventory continues to rise there with 93 homes on the market now compared to 83 a year ago. There was one sale last month compared to 4 a year ago. And there are three new contracts. In general, sellers in Rappahannock County have been slower to lower prices, believing that the counties unique circumstances protect them from the economic forces at work. And, to some extent that's true. But clearly not to the extent many sellers believe! The other factor at work here are a large number of very expensive properties, owned by very wealthy people, who are perfectly willing and able to wait a year or two for market conditions to change.

Overall, sellers should be singing hallelujahs. But, here's why I suspect many of you aren't. What we continue to see are lots of sales of foreclosures and short sales at very low prices. Many sellers are not willing or able to compete at those prices.

While inventory levels have fallen to around a 12 month supply, it's still not low enough to stop the price declines. If you're a seller in this market, desparate to sell, you're probably thinking that there's not much comfort in this if the only thing selling is foreclosures. But sooner or later, surely, we're going to run out of foreclosures. Here's the question, if that's a year from now, or longer, can you wait?

I kicked this off in the real estate community last week. And, today I'm announcing it publicly here.

Piedmont Property Management is now open for business! The business initially serves Fauquier, Culpeper and Rappahannock Counties.

I started my own property management firm for the same reason many entrepreneurs start a business. There was clearly a need. I heard so many complaints about the existing options that I became convinced there was an opportunity to do it better.

And, you, my client will be the ones who decide whether I manage to pull that off!

So for those of you who have decided it might be smarter to rent the house out and wait for a better market to sell, let me know! I'll be happy to tell you all about what I do and how I do it!

Don't look for a lot of posts here regarding property management. This will still be devoted to the buying and selling of real estate. And, in case you're wondering, yes, I still do that! In fact, it's time to go write an offer!

I know you've been hearing nothing but doom and gloom from the financial markets for the last week. And, it does feel like the sky is falling some days.

But the August numbers actually show lots of reasons for optimism. Almost across the board, by any measure of activity, the numbers look much, much better than they did a year ago.

In Culpeper, the inventory is at 676, down from 814 homes for sale at this time a year ago. Meanwhile, closed sales jumped from 32 to 64. Even new listings coming on the market has fallen from 154 to 121.

In Fauquier the story is much the same. Inventory is at 730 now vs. 823 a year ago. While the sales are still relatively flat, they have increased from 57 to 60.

Prince William has seen dramatic improvements, year over year. Inventory levels right now are at 4835. A year ago there were 5654 homes for sale. Sales have doubled from 419 to 838. The only negative indicator here is that new listings continue to come on the market at a fast clip.  There were 1300 new listings in August. But a year ago there were 1530.

Rappahannock even showed some dramatic results with 5 sales last month compared to 2 a year ago. Inventory, however, remains close to it's highest point (August of last year) at 82 homes for sale.

While activity is very good, prices show no signs of recovery right now. And, I believe you'll continue to see prices flat or falling for at least the next six months. But banks are getting their listings sold. They're not doing it by getting them in great shape. They're doing it by dramatically discounting price.

If you're a seller, that's your dilemna. Do you drop your price to compete with the banks? Can you afford to wait until all the foreclosures work their way through the system, potentially at least another year? Do you rent it out and hope for a better market at the end of the lease?

Whatever you decide, whatever your situation, it's good to hear a little good news this week!

I'm fully booked this weekend showing properties to potential buyers.

Great news, right?

Here's the thing, out of all those buyers, not one of them wants to see anything in Fauquier, Culpeper, Rappahannock or Warren Counties.

Next week I'm going to do a very, very specific analysis between a few houses in comparable subdivisions in Fauquier, Prince William and Loudon counties. I think the price comparisons will be surprising to a lot of people.

Other Coming Attractions Next Week:

• Early Peek at August Numbers
• Poplar Springs Efforts to Go Green
• Re-inventing Warrenton

Have a wonderful Labor Day weekend!

The official June numbers have been released for this area of Virginia. Let's take a look, by county, at what they have to tell us.

First, Culpeper County. Compared to a year ago, inventory is down (732 now vs. 784 then). New contracts written have jumped (61 now vs. 47 then) and we see the same thing with solds (57 vs, 31). It's all good news! The only thing we see that isn't positive is that we're still adding new listings at a faster clip than I'd like. There were 130 new listings in June, compared to 113 a year ago. Still, when you look at year over year numbers, this is some of the best news we've seen in awhile.

Fauquier county presents a more mixed picture. The great news is Fauquier is inventory. A year ago we were looking at 865 homes on the market. Now we're down to 753. That's a 13% reduction in inventory. Good news! And the trend seems likely to continue. There were 128 new listings this month compared to 171 a year ago. The mixed part is the number of contracts and sales. There were 61 new contracts written this month compared to 65 a year ago. And 67 homes sold compared to 65 a year ago. Those aren't terrible numbers, but they're not telling as good a story as the other numbers.

Prince William County is where things are really hopping! This is the best news of any jurisidiction. And it follows the nationwide trend of this housing recovery happening closer to urban centers. Inventory is down from a year ago (5501 vs. 5703). But look at the contracts written and the number of solds! 987 new contracts were written in June. Compare that to last June when there were only 454. That's an increase of over 100%. And the solds tell a similar story. The numbers in June were 834 vs. 456 a year ago. The number of new listings is also decreasing 1448 now vs. 1539 in 2007. There's not a spec of bad news to be found in Prince William! Anecdotal evidence supports this. There are numerous examples of not only quick sales, but multiple offers on the most attractively priced properties.

Rappahannock remains in its own little world! Inventory is up from 79 to 85. New listings are almost identical to a year ago (17 now, 16 then). New contracts are down from 7 a year ago to 4 now.  Solds are exactly the same at 4. In other words things remain much the same in Rappahannock County.

This is the most positive report I've seen in a long time. There's no way to look at these numbers and not be optimistic.  I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that in Prince William County they may have seen the bottom. We won't know for sure until at least 6 months from now, but it's possible.

By the way, if you're a seller that doesn't mean you can raise your price! The properties priced CORRECTLY FOR THE MARKET are selling. There are still plenty of them sitting there!

When I want to show a listing to a buyer, I use a lockbox to enter the house. Typically, in this area (Prince William, Fauquier, Culpeper, Rappahannock and Warren counties) that generally means an electronic lockbox that often looks like this:

To access this box and get the house key out, I use an electronic device that's been updated with a special code within the last 24 hours. It's an extra level of protection for the homeowner in case my "ekey" is stolen. Within 24 hours it's essentially worthless unless you know my passwords in order to get it updated.

The other advantage of this lockbox is that I know who has shown my listings. If something is missing, left unlocked, etc. I likely know who to track down to ask about the problem.

There have always been a few holdouts who still used combination (combo) lockboxes:

These boxes require only an alpha or numeric code in order to open them and access the key. If I know the combination I could, theoretically, give that information to someone else and that's all they'd need to access the keys to your home. It's a less secure method of access. The advantage in some agents' eyes is that if someone from outside our area wants to show the house, there's no problem if they don't use the same lockbox system used in this area.

With the large number of foreclosures in our area, we're seeing a big increase in the use of these combination lockboxes. Most banks will mandate that a combo box be used on their listings. I've had trouble coming up with a good reason for this. The only thing I can think of is that they want bank personnel to be able to access the property if necessary, without a real estate agent present.

I was troubled this week to learn that a local agent had mentioned that if he's unable to show a home when his buyer clients want to see it and he can't find any other agent to cover for him, he'll simply give his clients the combination and let them go in the house on their own.

Hmmmmm! The number of reasons this is a bad idea is very long. The liability to the agent should anything go wrong, is huge. It could be that his clients are good people with the best of intentions but they have trouble getting the keys back into the lockbox. It happens all the time. It is, of course, highly unprofessional and, I'd suggest, unethical. The listing agent should definitely be making a phone call to the agent's broker at the very least, to protest this behavior.

By the way, when the agent was confronted with what a bad idea this was the response was "Everybody does it." I never got that one by my Mom. And, I'm not buying it now!

There's a constant refrain here. And, I know I sound like a record stuck in a groove. But May numbers continue to reinforce that we've still got too much inventory.

Culpeper County shows we're only eight units off where we were last year at this time. The good news is that sales jumped substantially this month. And, I'm not using month over month comparisons, but year over year. Both new contracts and closed sales took a big jump. But that pace is going to need to continue for months in order to start to see the reduction in inventory we need in order to stabilize prices.

In Fauquier County last year at this point in time we hit our highest number ever for inventory. Unlike Culpeper, we've come down substantially. A year ago there were 867 homes for sale and now it's only 764. The contracts written and the sales closed are both also up, if not quite as much as in Culpeper.

Prince William County actually has a large increase in inventory. While contracts and sales are up, the increase in inventory means no firming up of prices there any time soon. Since Prince William County is one of the hardest hit counties in Virginia for foreclosures, this will likely take some time to resolve itself. But bargain hunters are out there.

Rappahannock County remains a place apart. The market is almost exactly where it was a year ago. Days on market are longer there as well, inventory is higher than it was several years ago. But it's a very different market than what we're seeing in the other three counties.

Our numbers reflect the national numbers pretty well. New contracts are up across the nation. The numbers you hear from NAR and from most of the national media are primarily comparing May, 2008 to April, 2008 and of course the numbers are going to go up. The more meaningful number is always year over year.

We've got some good signs out there. There are buyers out there. They're looking for bargains. They've got the right market for it.

Let's face it, the MLS is not always the buyers' friend. On short sales and foreclosures especially, but even on a substantial number of other listings, there are often no photos. Sometimes there will be one or you'll get the property with photos of only the exterior and the land.

That's a shame in many ways. Buyers want to see photos. With gas prices what they are, it's very helpful to be able to screen properties without having to drive to every one.

It's also a shame for the sellers, in all honesty. Buyers in most cases will simply bypass listings without photos. Photos of a place that doesn't look all that great are still almost always better than none. That's because buyers will usually assume even worse things in their imaginations if there are no photos. And, if what they'll see when they get there is likely to cause them not to buy it, why not eliminate them up front. Do you really want people tromping through your home who won't be interested in buying it?

So, a local real estate broker, Frank Borges Llosa, has taken matters into his own hands. There's a new MLS, that looks at the world from the buyer's point of view. The idea is to ask agents to photograph and comment on vacant homes. These comments and photos will be added to the MLS data that's already available.

It's a terrific idea and I've already begun contributing. I'll be selecting homes to work on based on several criteria. First, I'm interested in the property! Secondly, input from clients, customers and blog readers that they'd like me to check out a specific property. And, third, I'll start closer to home and work my way outwards. That means I'll start with listings in Culpeper, Fauquier and Rappahannock counties.

Let me know if you've got a property you'd like me to take a look at! And, continue to watch http://www.FranklyMLS.com for more updates.

There are interesting things happening all over the country with green/sustainable building. But here's one I especially like!

Why not marry sustainability and affordability? Here's an article on what one guy is doing.

I can't think of any reason something similar couldn't be done in Fauquier, Culpeper or Rappahannock counties!

I saw this article on Friday, but I hate to go into the weekend on a bad news note! So, I saved it for Monday! Just what you needed, right?!

There are still buyers out there. There will always be buyers out there!

The pool is small and you're going to have to knock yourself out to get them to your house. And, if they're not coming to your house, it's over priced!

And, this article from the New York Times will probably interest buyers and sellers. The numbers here are national. (Our local numbers are worse.) But I think the letter to sellers is a good idea. Sellers, given the inventory in Culpeper, Rappahannock, Fauquier and Warren counties, I don't think I'd try the letter to the buyer. They really do have all the cards right now!

The Fauquier Times Democrat had an editorial this week that was right on the mark. This is a great opportunity for local governments to address affordable housing.

The editorial talks about what's being done in Prince William and Fairfax counties. The Prince William model may work better here. But maybe there's a third way.

I'd like to see a public/private partnership between Fauquier County and Habitat for Humanity. The two groups together could certainly do more than either group could on its own. And, while I mention Fauquier County here, because that's what the editorial addressed, this solution could just as easily be applied to Culpeper.

There's a growing inventory of vacant homes in the area. These vacancies hurt all existing homeowners. And, there's a huge pool of potential home owners that have been driven out of the market because of lack of affordability.

Seems to me there are potential solutions here for everybody!

One of the things I enjoy most about blogging is the interaction with readers. Whether it's your comments or your questions, I enjoy hearing what's on your mind. I thought I'd take a little time today to respond to some of what you've been saying.

Someone used the Meebo functionality on the right side of the page to chat with me about Fauquier County tax assessments. The question was has the county delayed the assessments so as not to take a revenue from the reduced values of area homes.

According to the County Commissioner of Revenue's office, the assessments have been done every four years, for at least the last 20 years. Prior to that assessments were done every six years. So it appears there's no change in policy at this time. The next assessments would be done in 2009 with the new rates to go into effect in 2010. The problem with that, of course, is that current values are no where near current assessments. There's a case to be made for appealing your current assessment.

"Sarah" recently reminded me that while the decline in home prices is bad for sellers, it's a great thing for buyers. That's very true. In every market there are winners and losers.

To be honest, I probably feel the sellers pain now more than I felt the buyers pain when they were desperately trying to buy a house and were one of 20 offers (or more)! The truth is I wasn't worried about them being thrown out on the street. I did worry that some of them were taking out mortgages that weren't in their best interest, but I was usually told that they knew what they were doing. These days, some of the sellers I work with are in very serious difficulty and I do worry about them!

So, if as a potential buyer you don't feel I'm sufficiently celebrating your ability to buy a house at a more affordable price, never fear! Prices actually still need to come down more. I'll do a post next week on affordability in our area. But I rejoice for every buyer who gets a great deal on the home they want!

And for my fellow agents who read this and keep me honest, thanks!

Keep those comments coming!

I walk talking to a colleague a couple of days ago about how the lower end of the market is where all the deals are being done right now. A house under $300K has a significantly better chance of selling than anything above it does. (Of the 41 houses sold in April in Fauquier County, half were below $300K. Another 10 were between $300K and $400K.)

She said that's good, because then the people who sold those houses will move up and so on and so forth. That's how the cycle works. And, I agreed initially. But as we discussed it further it occurred to me that the cycle seems to be broken right now.

There are still quite a few first time home buyers out there, and, an increasing number of investors. Typically the houses they buy are starter homes and then the sellers of those home move up the rung to a larger home.

But almost every home I show these days is empty. And, a large number of them are bank owned or on their way there. There are no owners living in those homes to move up to the next level of home ownership. They've already left and, in most cases, it was to go back to renting.

There are some empty homes where the owners got transferred and are gone because they're buying another home in another community. But a lot of the sales of starter homes are not producing the normal "move up" buyer that we usually see.

Today I'm going to talk about March's numbers for Fauquier county.

There is very little difference between the numbers in February and March. The total number of properties for sale in February was 730 and at the end of March we showed 734 available properties. That, actually, is good news. Many other counties continue to show substantial increases in that metric. 140 new listings were added this month as opposed to 153 in February. Again, at least it's moving in the right direction. There were 56 contracts written this month and only 44 in February. This is the biggest change in the month over month numbers. The number of houses sold last month rose from 32 in February to 35 in March. Not a huge difference, but an improvement.

Again, I think it's much more telling to look at year over year numbers.

Unlike Culpeper County we have not seen an explosi