The evidence suggests that we're testing a bottom in the Culpeper market, or at least in one segment of it.

If you look at homes with these characteristics:

• Single family home
• Less than five years old
• In one of new subdivisions in town of Culpeper
• Colonial
• 3-4 bedrooms, 2 1/2 baths
• Basement

What you're seeing are multiple offers on anything around $200K. So we're back to bidding wars with most of these then selling for more than list price. I'd say generally these are under contract within 14 days. Although it's hard to tell since the contracting process on a foreclosure can drag on for awhile.

And, yes, all of these are foreclosures. There are short sales out there in this price range as well and they're moving more slowly. Most short sales are long, painful processes and most buyers don't want the hassle. But if foreclosures really do begin to dry up, short sales will be the next ones people look to for a deal.

And, then, finally, we can move on to Joe Homeowner's house. The question is, will buyers then move up to his price? Will Joe Homeowner come down to where the banks are selling houses like hotcakes? Or will we be back to the stalemate?

Warrenton and Culpeper have, for some time now, been considered bedroom communities. Basically the people who have been moving here were commuting to someplace far away to work each day and coming home to sleep.

As more and more families couldn't afford homes closer to their jobs, they came looking out this way. Often they put up with miserable commutes in order to get that new house for their family.

This was part of what fueled the boom in real estate in our communities. And, the end of that flock of commuters moving here has had much to do with the real estate bust, at a local level.

Even with the recent decline in the price of oil, a real long-term reduction in gas prices now seems unlikely. And, as long as gas is at or above $4/gallon, those commuters are probably not coming back.

So, what's next? Who is going to buy these homes?

It seems clear to me that both Warrenton and Culpeper are going to need to reinvent themselves. Whatever we're going to be in the future, it's probably not what we've been in the past.

It's probably unrealistic to think that we're going to bulldoze all those new subdivisions and go back to the sleepy small towns that we once were.

It's equally unrealistic to believe that the commuters are coming back and that we can thrive as a bedroom community.

So, who do we want to be? Clearly we're going to need to attract businesses that pay high enough wages that families can afford to buy homes. What kind of businesses do we want to attract? What's a good fit with who we are today, our history and who we want to be in the future?

I'm not sure our local governments have yet figured out that we need to re-imagine ourselves as something different. Although I see signs of hope in each community.

Warrenton is talking about turning trash into energy. Might this be the start of becoming a green city and a push to attract green industry?

Culpeper is building new condos downtown next to the train depot where they hope to soon have another train headed into DC. This could be the start of the new Culpeper.

These are clearly seeds of something new. Now let's start public discussion and brainstorming around this challenge and potential solutions. It's going to take years to figure this all out and to begin to make these changes. Let's get started now!