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Piedmont Real Estate Blog

Blog by Julie Emery
Amissville, Virginia

An ongoing dialog on real estate news, opinion and trends in Northern Virginia and the greater Piedmont area. Julie is an Associate Broker at Century 21 New Millennium, 5451 Old Alexandria Turnpike, Warrenton, VA 20187

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Piedmont Real Estate Blog

The Culpeper View

Nov. 17, 2008
Categorized in: Business of Real Estate

Allison Brophy has another great article  in the Culpeper Star Exponent taking a closer look at the real estate market and the state of foreclosures in Culpeper county. Culpeper's been one of the hardest hit counties in this part of Virginia.

And a timely article in Slate on why the argument that the sub prime mess is because lenders were forced to do sub prime mortgages by the government is hogwash.

There are some signs that lenders are anticipating President-Elect Obama's 90 day moratorium on foreclosures and voluntarily beginning to comply in advance. If your a seller this will be good news, at least in the short term! Prices may stabilize sooner than anyone anticipated. And, if these properties stay off the market, that stabilization may last.

While it would seem that at the end of that time you'd get a bunch of foreclosures hitting the market and driving prices down once again, I'm not sure that will be true. I suspect that during the 90 days plans will be made to permanently reduce the foreclosures to a trickle.

If you're a buyer, it means the number of great deals may be shrinking quickly. If you've been waiting for the bottom of this market, waiting any longer could get expensive.

 

Falling Prices

Dec. 12, 2007
Categorized in: Local Market Conditions

There's an article in today's New York Times about a zip code just south of Los Angeles that has had the biggest decline in home sales of any place in the country. Sales have declined by 78% between third quarter 2006 and third quarter 2007. That's certainly a much larger decline than anything we've seen here locally.

If we look at Culpeper County, the hardest hit county, locally, and look at the last three months of data, there's a 27% decline in total sales year over year. Now bear in mind that 2006 was also anemic compared to 2005. For the total two year period, the drop between 2005 and the last three months of 2007 shows a total drop of 58% in home sales in Culpeper County.

The conclusion the author of the piece in the Times reaches is that it's come to this because of an impasse between buyers and sellers. Buyers are unable to afford to buy at current prices. Sellers are unwilling, or often unable, to bring down the price of their home in order to sell it. The author mentions one family whose home has been for sale since August. In that time they've dropped the asking price by 5%.

Strangely enough, that's the only statistic the author provides about price drops in that neighborhood. If it's anything like the local area other homes in that area may tell a different story.

Home prices here are clearly dropping. While the percentage can vary widely, neighborhood to neighborhood, 20% to 30% drops in average sold prices are not uncommon right now. And, that's a good thing!

While I'd question some of the author's conclusions in the NY Times article, he's got one thing right. When prices get to the right place, buyers will come back out. We're seeing some of that, it appears in the last couple of months. I can't tell you if we're at the bottom yet, but I think there's a decent chance you can see it from here.

Of course, climbing out of the bottom is going to take time. But I believe sellers in our area are starting to do their part. That's good for all of us!

Culpeper County

Oct. 31, 2007
Categorized in: Culpeper County

Culpeper County, Virginia

Culpeper County is an agricultural community experiencing exciting growth and development. By an increase of 20 percent since 2000, the county's population has grown to just over 41,000. Almost half of the county's acreage is still dedicated to agriculture, a great deal of which is made up of nurseries, green houses, and Christmas tree farms. But horse and beef farms are popular and wineries are prevalent. Fifty percent of the county land is still wooded.

The county was chartered in 1749 and named for Lord Thomas Culpeper, just after a young George Washington was commissioned to survey the area. It was an active community in the American Revolution and was a strategic "hub" during the Civil War due to its desirable railroad location.

In addition to a wealth of Civil War history, Culpeper offers many cultural events, free concerts, theaters and art festivals. For those who enjoy the outdoors there is plenty of gorgeous scenery to take in while bike riding, hiking, horseback riding fishing or canoeing.

Today Culpeper County has its own regional airport, although the major DC and Baltimore airports are within 100 miles, and two Amtrak lines stop through the area. The Culpeper Regional Hospital is located in the Town of Culpeper and the Culpeper public school system is fully accredited by the Virginia Department of Education.


For more information visit the county's website at http://www.culpepercounty.gov or the Chamber of Commerce at http://www.culpepervachamber.com

Culpeper Possibilities

Apr. 23, 2007
Categorized in: Local News

I had the great pleasure this past week of sitting down with three students from the University of VA Darden Graduate School of Business. Sara Cerminara, Polly Howe and Katie Horsman are working on their MBAs and wanted to sit and talk about Culpeper real estate.

It was an interesting conversation and I was impressed by their questions. Even better, they got me thinking about what Culpeper could be and what areas for growth might make sense.

First of all, kudos to Culpeper for some of the work they've already done. Things like attracting the Library of Congress facility were clearly a great move! Culpeper clearly appears to have a head start over many surrounding counties in attracting the kind of businesses that can help their community grow.

Clearly Culpeper will need to focus on local economic development in order to continue to prosper. Looking to build a community based on commuters to Northern VA and DC would seem to be a poor long term strategy. And the more I think about this the more I think it makes sense to look more towards creating a community of interest between Culpeper and Charlottesville.

The corridor between these two communities is already seeing extensive growth. There is a good transportation route between the two communities. There would seem to be an opportunity here to work together to build something that doesn't rely on Northern Virginia or DC for growth, jobs, etc.

Given the educational, employment and commercial opportunities in Charlottesville, I believe Culpeper should be working to create a dialog with this community to foster closer ties. Anybody know of efforts already under way in this area?

Thanks, ladies, for getting me to think a little more deeply on some of these topics!