The October numbers continue the good news trend. There are no huge surprises here and no evidence, yet, that the September financial melt down significantly affected our local real estate market.

Culpeper County now has 623 homes in inventory. That's the smallest number we've seen since April of 2006. And the number dropped again from September. The number of homes coming on the market also fell slightly to 109. That being said, remember that this is fairly typical behavior in the fall as some homeowners will pull their homes off the market now and wait and hope for a strong spring market. 58 homes sold in Culpeper in October and an additional 69 homes went under contract.

Fauquier County also has much in the way of good news. There are 690 homes for sale. 110 new listings were put on the market in October, a reduction from the previous month. 49 homes sold, which is slightly less than the previous month. And the number of new contracts written dropped almost in half, from 83 to 43. So November numbers may show a significant drop in closed sales.

Prince William County shows a current inventory of 4222, again the best number we've seen since early 2006. New listings did increase in Prince William County, perhaps as a result of seeing how quickly some listings were selling. New listings in September were 1178 and in October jumped to 1284. Closed sales dropped a little in October from 934 to 841 but are still a huge improvement year over year. And contracts written also rose from 1059 to 1143.

Rappahannock County continues to march to its own drummer. Inventory there is at an all time high of 103. And another 17 new listings were added to inventory during October. There were 4 closed sales in October and three new contracts written. As of right now I wouldn't expect a big improvement in November.

Overall the news continues to be good in terms of the volumes of sales and the reduction in inventory. What won't make most sellers happy is the continued reduction in sales prices. I don't expect any stabilization in prices before spring. And, actual price increases are likely a long way off at this point.

I get asked a lot about what is going to turn the real estate market around in this area. It's not an easy question to answer.

A friend who was formerly in the mortgage industry told me last week that he believed it was purely psychological and that when people believed it was a good time to buy homes again, they would. And, that's certainly a part of the answer. But what moves people to believe that?

I especially fret over Culpeper since the market there has suffered more than in the rest of the area I cover. And I've got a grand scheme that I think would ultimately make a difference for that community.

First of all, VRE needs to be extended to Culpeper. The hard part of this is already done as VRE trains use Amtrak tracks which already go right through Culpeper. They even stop there! You would need to expand the current depot to accomodate larger crowds. And you'd need a whole lot of parking. I suspect the city would have to purchase some nearby property to make this happen.

Now you build housing in downtown within walking distance of the train station. I'm thinking condos or townhouses. If you really want to make this attractive long term, I'd make them environmentally friendly and energy efficient.

Downtown Culpeper is already a terrific place. This would make it a huge draw for those people who want to live in a place like Culpeper but can't face the commute. I believe it would jump start the housing market, not just for those units near downtown, but through the community.

Heck, you might even see some spillover into Fauquier County with people driving to Culpeper to catch the train.

This is a huge project and obviously needs the city and county to pull it off. But I believe it's doable. And I think even announcing the idea would make people start to think more seriously about a home in Culpeper.