As you're making plans for your weekend, don't forget to stop by one of the local farmers markets. Here's a list of some that I've been frequenting:

Nokesville Farmer's Market - I just discovered this one but already love it. Hours are 8 to noon on Saturdays. They take "local" seriously at this one. All vendors are from Prince William or Fauquier Counties.

Warrenton Farmer's Market - Great excuse to get into old town Warrenton. This is their 33rd year. See them downtown Saturday's from 7 a.m. to noon or on Wednesdays out on Lee Hwy from 7 a.m. until 1.

Culpeper Farmer's Market - At the corner of Main and Commerce every Saturday from 7:30 to noon. I've been very impressed by the great selection of heirloom vegetables here!

Clevenger's Corner Farmers Market - This is the newest addition having just opened last Friday. This is at the intersection of 211 and 229 in Amissville. They're open Fridays and Sundays from 4-7 p.m. for all you non-morning people!

And...I hear there will be a new one in Sperryville any day now! More to come on that.

If you've got others you'd like to see mentioned here, jump into the comments and let everyone know!

I'm going to take a moment today to acknowledge that this is my 400th blog post here! I've enjoyed every minute of it and have learned more than I would have thought possible!

It's been fun hearing from you. All of you are the reason this blog exists. The purpose remains the same now as it was at post number one. This is here to give you, the consumer, more access to information on real estate in general and on the Fauquier (Warrenton), Culpeper, Prince William, Rappahannock and Warren county real estate market.

The occasion of the 400th post is prompting some reflection and analysis and watch for some adjustments going forward that will hopefully make this blog even more relevant.

And, because I wanted today's post to have an upbeat feel, here's an article on what I believe is ultimately a very positive sign for the real estate market overall. Work outs for troubled mortgages have not been happening in anywhere near he numbers they need to. This points to better systems and processes to make that happen.

And, one more milestone occurs later this week. Next weekend I'll turn 50!

YeeHaw!

The Culpeper Star Exponent reports that two condominium projects slated for Culpeper have been pulled due to current economic conditions as well as the state of the local real estate market. It's not that Culpeper wouldn't be better off with more condominiums in the housing mix, but it's definitely the wrong time. For weary sellers, less competition is good news!

And, that's only a small piece of the good news in the real estate market.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have dropped their "declining markets" indicator. Since just about every local jurisdiction had been labeled a declining market that's big! This indicator meant buyers had to come up with more cash to buy homes in this area. In a market already starved for buyers, this was not helping! Don't expect a flood of new buyers as a result of this, but it should help out a few buyers who were short that extra cash.

And, let me leave you with one more piece of good news. No housing market is completely depressed or completely robust. There are always pockets that are thriving even in the toughest markets. One of those areas here is the rental market. Rentals that are well-priced and in good condition are moving, sometimes pretty quickly. The summer season should be a good one for the rental business. And some sellers might be well-advised to consider renting out their properties that aren't selling.

There's lots to talk about today.

Saturday, in Warrenton, is the third annual Alternative Energy Expo. It runs from 9:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. at the Fauquier County Fairgrounds. Admission is $5. If you've been thinking about making your home and/or your life more "green" this is a great place to get ideas, talk to people who can help and get inspired! It's bigger and better than ever this year!

Most of you should have received in your mailboxes this week a circular called "Northern Piedmont - Buy Fresh - Buy Local". The Piedmont Environmental Council sent this to residents of Culpeper, Fauquier, Orange, Madison and Rappahannock counties. In it you'll find a guide to buying almost everything you eat locally from produce to meat, from farmers markets to CSAs to buying right on the farm. Great publication!

The WSJ has run a couple of very interesting real estate articles this week. First up was an article called "As Dues Dry Up, The Neighbors Pay" about how as no one is paying the HOA dues on vacant/foreclosed houses, other homeowners are having to swallow large increases in dues. It's another things buyers need to take a careful look at prior to buying.

The other article in WSJ was "Will Upgrading Your Home Help You Sell It?" and the results are clearly mixed. In a declining market I'd always argue that while you want your house to shine, you should never put in expensive upgrades. This article has some interesting details.

The April numbers are finalized.  I did a sneak preview for you about ten days ago, before the numbers were official. And, the picture hasn't changed much.

In every county, the pattern is the same. Inventory has risen again, as has the number of new listings. After a dismal month in terms of sales in March, April looks better, both in terms of new contracts written and sales closed. But the number of houses sold is not keeping pace with the new listings coming on the market.

Fauquier, Culpeper are each showing about 16 months of inventory. Warren is looking worse at 24 months. Prince William is in the best shape at only 9 months. Rappahannock, being a special place, has about 3 years worth of inventory. But, again, the numbers generally don't give a very realistic picture of Rappahannock.

The more interesting comparison, of course, is year over year. Since real estate is very seasonal, that's always true. In general, inventory is higher than it was a year ago and sales are slower. There are some exceptions, but it's too soon to say if those are a blip or a true change in market conditions.

No bottom in sight would be my reading of current conditions. There is nothing to suggest we've turned a corner. (Although I remain hopeful that I'm wrong!)

It appears some of what I've envisioned for Culpeper may be coming to pass. With new condos slated to be built downtown right across from the train depot and now another Amtrak train to and from DC potentially being added, I like the long term outlook for Culpeper!

OK, I'm annoyed.

Here's my problem. The data on the listings for short sales and bank foreclosures is so often wrong or just missing!

I understand completely that agents are generally making less money on these listings. And, it makes sense that you're not going to spend a lot of money advertising them. But surely some sense of professional pride should demand that you do a complete job of putting the basic listing information in the MLS.

I showed a condo in Culpeper that was listed as "Fee Simple" for form of ownership.

For those of you who don't know, basically condo ownership means that you own from the interior paint, inwards. So, you don't own the walls, roof, yard, etc. That's a big difference from a property where you have maintenance responsibilities for all of the above. It's a pretty big listing mistake.

Now, I'm annoyed because I looked stupid. I searched for condos in that community that were for sale and missed this one because it wasn't listed as a condo. I'm partially mad at myself for not thinking to broaden the search criteria under the assumption it had been listed incorrectly.

And, I hate, hate, hate looking stupid. I really hate being wrong!

There! I feel better now!

I'm a little late getting March's numbers out to you all. Blame the IRS! But now that taxes are done, it's time to dive into the numbers and take a look. I haven't done individual posts by county for awhile so I'll be doing that over the course of the next few days.

Today it's Culpeper.

The biggest difference between February and March is the number of new listings coming on the market. Last month there were 206 new listings. This month there were only 142 new listings. That would seem to be helpful to the total amount of inventory on the market but there's only a slight difference (February: 819, March: 802). The other notable difference is the number of sales which increased from 31 in February to 42 in March.

Those numbers are interesting, but the more interesting comparison is with what happened a year ago. Remember, real estate is very seasonal. Spring markets are very different from fall or winter markets. The best comparison is almost always year over year changes.

In March of 2007, a year ago, the total inventory was only 643, as opposed to the 802 we've got now. The number of new listing taken were 145, almost identical to the number in March of 2008, 142. The number of new contracts was also very similar, 54 last year, 53 this year. The biggest difference is the number of closed sales. That number was 52 in March of 2007 and 42 in March of 2008.

Year over year it's hard to see any signs that this market is turning around.

Prices continue to drop. Average sales price in Culpeper county a year ago was $328,013. The average sales price now is $288,017. That's a 12% drop in one year. That's significant. There's no sign that prices are stabilizing either.

One statistic that surprised me is that the total number of new construction listings are up. As more and more builders have slowed or stopped building, I expected a reduction in new construction listings. But a year ago there were 224 new construction properties listed and now there are 263.

But perhaps even more surprising is the number of new construction sales. 12 sold in March of 2007 and only 4 in 2008. Considering the terrific deals most builders are providing, that's surprising. If you're ever going to buy new construction, the deals out there right now may make this the time.

Overall, there's not much here to raise your hopes if you're a seller. Lots of continued good news for the buyers!

This is an interesting map tool showing various non-prime mortgage stats in a US map format. You can choose the kind of information you want, enter the zip code you're interested in and see the detailed info.

The map is courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank of NY. Given that, I tend to think the information is pretty reliable.

The good news is that we don't appear to be in particularly bad shape. I looked at some of the hardest hit zip codes around, including Prince William and Culpeper, and didn't see anything that looked particularly ugly.

Wouldn't it be nice if it felt that way!?

The Senate is busy debating the Foreclosure Prevention Act of 2008. It's an important bill and one that has the potential to have a very large impact on the real estate market. It's worth taking a closer look at some of these provisions.

The bill covers these items:

• Increased FHA Loan Limits
• Assisting Communities Devastated by Foreclosures
• Providing Pre-Foreclosure Counseling for Families
• Enhancing Mortgage Disclosure
• Assisting Veterans In Danger of Foreclosure
• Property Tax Deduction
• Mortgage Revenue Bonds
• Help for Homebuilders
• Tax Credit for Purchase of Homes in Foreclosure

I'm going to talk about two provisions today that I believe could significantly help our market. One is the Tax Credit for Purchase of Homes in Foreclosure. This would provide a tax credit of $7,000 for buyers of homes in foreclosure or pre-foreclosure. The credit would be taken over two years. This could only be used on owner occupied homes, not on investment properties.

This could provide a significant incentive to buyers to get back in this market. It would also help to start providing a floor to price declines as the number of foreclosures on the market would likely decrease faster.

The down side to this is if you're a homeowner who is selling your home and you're not in foreclosure. You would definitely seem to be at a significant disadvantage!

The other provision that has the potential to make a huge difference is the Assisting Communities Devestated by Foreclosures provision. This would be available to communities hit hard by foreclosures and would provide Community Development Block Grant Funds to allow purchase of foreclosed homes. Those homes culd then be rehabilitated or redeveloped by the community. They could be used as workforce rental housing, or eventually resold. Perhaps partnerships could be established with organizations such as Habitat for Humanity.

What we don't know is which local communities would be eligible for this assistance. But, again, this could help enormously with bringing down inventory and stabilizing prices. I'm hoping that, at a minimum, Culpeper and Prince William Counties would be eligible.

The prospects for passage look good at the moment, at least in the Senate. And, I suspect in an election year the House will be even more interested in getting this one passed!

If you've got questions on some of the other provisions, let me know and I'll get you more information.

Saturday's Washington Post carried a story about foreclosure activity that primarily looked at Prince William county. As the story makes clear, things are pretty bad in Prince William County. The number quoted in the article is that 5.5% of the homes in the county are in some phase of foreclosure.

I took a look at RealtyTrac, a web site that specializes in providing foreclosure listings. It shows 3204 homes in Prince William County in foreclosure out of 5573 homes currently listed for sale. It says an additional 881 homes are in pre-foreclosure. And 1932 homes are up for auction. Some of those auctioned homes are likely to be foreclosures, although certainly not all of them.

To give you a feel for the rest of the area, Culpeper County has 137 properties in foreclosure, 20 pre-foreclosure and 97 up for auction. That's out of 819 listings.

Fauquier County has 111 foreclosures, 2 pre-foreclosures and 93 properties up for auction out of 730 listings.

Rappahannock County has 4 foreclosures, 0 pre-foreclosures and 6 properties to be auctioned.

Warren County has 0 foreclosures according to RealtyTrac, although I seriously doubt their data on this county. There are 4 in pre-foreclosure and 73 listings to be auctioned.

I've got February's market numbers. I'll give you the scoop on Culpeper, Fauquier, Rappahannock, Prince William and Warren Counties. If anyone is interested in information on any other counties, contact me and I'll be happy to provide.

In general, what we're seeing across the board is a jump in inventory. This being March, that's not a surprise at all. The increase in inventory will continue for the next several months.

In three out of the five counties the number of closed sales was flat. Rappahannock had one sale in both January and February. Warren had 22 each month. And Fauquier actually fell from 33 in January to 32 in February. As I said, flat.

Prince William showed a huge increase in the number of contracts written, from 498 in January to 698 in February. This may have something to do with the steeper price drops we've seen in that market. They may have finally broken the stalemate between buyers looking for a deal and sellers determined to hang on to every dime of equity they can, even if it means not selling!

Warren showed a nice increase in contracts, up by about 25% from last month. Rappahannock went from 0 last month to 1 this month.  Culpeper was up just slightly from 47 written last month to 51 written this month. Fauquier actually fell from 53 to 44.

Most of the counties are sitting at around 2 years worth of inventory on the market right now. Prince William is an exception with only about 16 months of inventory. The numbers for Rappahannock are pretty meaningless, but if you're interested the math shows a 70 month supply!

Across the board prices are still falling. And, I expect that to continue throughout 2008. This will vary a lot by neighborhood. In some neighborhoods, you may see some stabilization. In some neighborhoods, there's still a lot of adjustment needed. I'd be shocked if anyone found a single neighborhood where prices increase over the next year.

That's the scoop for February! If anyone needs me to dig deeper into any of these numbers I'm happy to help. Just send me an e-mail.

Last night I attended the Tranzon auction in Fairfax. Since most of you will probably never attend one, but many of you are probably interested, I thought I'd give you a report.

There were originally 19 auction lots to be sold. (Auction lots as opposed to parcels of land.) Ten of those 19 lots were from our area. They also had a half dozen DC properties and some land parcels in Clifton and Chantilly. I believe the proportion of local properties is representative of how much tougher the real estate market is as you move further away from DC.

Four of those 19 properties were pre-sold prior to the auction. In addition, one of the lots was three Culpeper townhouses. Two of those were pre-sold as well.

It was interesting that not one of the parcels of land met the reserve price. There were bids. But the seller had set a minimum price at which they'd accept an offer and none of the bids on any land parcel met that reserve. Land prices are always less elastic than residential homes and this confirmed that. And, since many of the bidders on land were builders, it's pretty clear that they're being very cautious right now. (If they weren't they'd be bankrupt, not bidding at auctions!)

I was at the auction with a buyer client so I had that hat on. So, I'll give my impressions from the buyer side first.

While the auction prices on some of these properties were attractive, there were no "steals" here. The ultimate sale prices overall were not far off current market prices. That tells me the people in that room had done their homework and weren't going to overbid. It also tells me that the heat of a bidding competition got some of them to bid a bit more than they really wanted to.

It was a cautious crowd overall. (And a large crowd.) For example, on the first property of the evening, a large colonial in Manassas on a 1.18 acre lot, the auctioneer tried to start the bidding at $700,000. He ultimately had to go down to $400K to get the first bid. The final sale price was $530K.

I was also struck by some of the comments by Tranzon, both the auctioneer and the gentleman providing the descriptions of each property. Comments like "You know this is going to be worth $350K in a year or two" and "The value on this can only go up" were shocking to this REALTOR who has been trained to never misrepresent value. And, the interesting thing is that I think those kind of statements were actually counterproductive. You could hear some of the scoffing after these comments as the potential buyers seemed to be reminded of the current state of the local real estate market and the folly of such predictions.

From a seller's perspective, this is not an unattractive way to sell a home. None of the residential properties failed to meet the reserve price. They all certainly sold faster than they would have under normal circumstances. And, I don't believe there was a significant decrease in the net in the seller's pocket. Remember that all of these properties are sold as-is with no inspections, appraisals, etc. And, settlement must take place within 30 days. I wouldn't hesitate to help a seller use an auction to sell their property. In this market, it's probably a method more sellers and their agents should seriously consider.

It was a very educational evening. If you're interested in more information on either buying or selling at an auction, let me know and I'd be happy to help!

Time to take a closer look at one of those really hard hit Culpeper subdivisions, Lakeview.

Construction in Lakeview started about six years ago and is just about finishing now. In this market that pretty much guarantees that anyone who about in the first few years has seen the value of their homes decline substantially.

The completed subdivision is supposed to have approximately 600 homes, a combination of single family homes and townhomes.

There are currently 45 homes listed for sale in Lakeview. Of those 9 are new construction. Thirty three of those homes are vacant. 17 are foreclosures. 7 have been disclosed as short sales. Although disclosing this in the listing is a requirement, it doesn't always happen. So there may be additional short sales that aren't clearly flagged.

The cheapest townhouse here is $188,500. The cheapest detached home is $216,000. The most expensive townhouse is $239,000. The most expensive detached home is $399,000.

The good news is that 34 homes sold in this community in the last year. So things are selling. The bad news is probably best shown in the most recent sale, one that closed just this week.

A brick detached home with a side-loading two car garage, 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths and a full, unfinished basement sold for a net of $222,450.

Considering that there are townhouses listed for considerably more than that at the moment, prices still have a ways to fall here. Even the nicest homes in this subdivision will have trouble commanding prices close to $400,000 given these kind of comparables in the neighborhood. And, if you should get lucky enough to get that kind of offer, I wouldn't count on getting an appraisal that comes in at or above purchase price.

Culpeper remains one of the hardest hit areas, even more so in newer subdivisions such as Lakeview. But if you're bargain hunting, this is a promising place to look!

The January numbers are out and there's more good news to report. This is starting to feel and look like more than an anomaly. (Knock on wood!) But there are still danger signs as well. Let's talk about all of it.

Culpeper county continues to see inventories decline. Actually across the board we're seeing declines, but perhaps most significantly in Culpeper. This is the lowest we've seen inventory in a year. And, while closed sales were down in January, the number of contracts written more than doubled. A good sign going forward. Given how busy I am with both buyers and sellers the past couple of weeks, I believe we'll see an increase in contracts again in January.

Here's the bad news; new listing jumped back up. New listings in December were 91. New listings last month were 161. Year over year, we're holding steady. In January of '07 we saw 165 new listings. Expect that number to increase again in February. Again, my personal experience with new listings coming up would seem to confirm that.

In Fauquier we saw many of the same trends, but dialed down. Inventory decreased very slightly, from 703 to 699. Inventory still remains above where we were a year ago. As in Culpeper, sales were down, contracts were up. New listings jumped significantly. By the way, this is not unusual. Especially in a tough market, it makes a lot of sense to beat your competition to market. And the spring will likely see a flood of new inventory.

In Prince William all the above trends hold with no significant differences.

Warren County is clearly still struggling. Inventory is down only slightly. New listings increased almost threefold and while new contracts increased, it was not by much. 

Rappahannock County seems to be looking a little more anemic right now. But the volumes are so tiny in Rappahannock that you'd be in sane to try and determine trends from such scanty data. There were no new contracts written and only one sale last month. Inventory decreased very slightly and the number of new listings doubled from the month before.  It'll be interesting to see how the spring market unfolds here.

So, let's see what the increased activity I'm seeing now does to these numbers next month!

This one is fun!

While I was looking at the Culpeper townhouse market yesterday I stumbled across this map, helpfully pinpointing the location of the townhouse...

I have a feeling this is not really ocean front property!

It does make an important point. Sellers should take a look at their listing and make sure there aren't any obvious problems. It matters that the information is complete and correct.

Buyers have a multitude of homes to look at. They use all kinds of things to narrow their search. You don't want them to eliminate you because of incorrect information.

And, the commute from this townhouse in the middle of the Atlantic is likely to be way too long!

The real estate market was front page on the Washington Post again yesterday. And, there are a couple of interesting lines that say a lot about our local market here.

2007 is behind us and the December numbers are now available. And there's plenty of good news. In every county I looked at, inventory continued to decline. Culpeper moved down to 783 homes for sale. It was at 796 last month. And, at its high hit 823.

Culpeper is representative of the surrounding counties. Rappahannock, Prince William, Fauquier, even Warren, all saw reductions in inventory. I'd like to say it's a trend, but given the circumstances it's still too early to say that. November and December in an average year will see a reduction in inventory as people take their homes off the market during the holidays. If January and February numbers continue to show a decrease I'll officially declare a trend!

We also saw fewer new listings across the board. Again, good news if it continues. With spring coming this is one I think we can safely say is not a trend. That's especially true if we look at year over year numbers. A comparison between December '06 and December '07 shows a sizeable increase in the number of new listings.

The number of new contracts and solds was down across almost every county with the exception of Prince William. That may have something to do with the fact that Prince William is showing some of the most aggressive price cutting.

I also compared the new contracts and solds to a year ago. In Culpeper we're significantly lower, in Fauquier close to breaking even. And, while Prince William is up month over month, it's down year over year.

All in all, December was a mixed bag. As with most statistics, we'll have a better idea what they mean a year from now!

For some odd reason there seems to be a class of real estate pundits out there who believe that a potential recession is a good thing for the real estate market.

It's an odd line of thought. But I understand their logic. The belief is that if the economy continues to look like it's headed for recession the Fed will have no choice but to lower interest rates. Lower interest rates will get all those buyers who are currently sitting on the sidelines to jump in and buy a home. And, voila! the market improves.

There are some serious logical flaws in this argument. First of all, even with some data suggesting the possibility of recession, the Fed's in a tough spot. While they'd no doubt like to lower interest rates to bolster the economy, there are also plenty of worries about inflation. Oil hit $100/barrel this week. Rising oil prices impact the prices of almost everything in our economy. It's hard to see how continued high oil prices aren't inflationary. And, food prices are rising fairly rapidly. While this is not included in most official measurements of inflation, it is certainly something that will be watched by the Fed. So, maybe they cut interest rates. Maybe they hold steady. There's not enough data to provide an answer right now. And, the truth is you never know for sure until the Fed meets.

Secondly, as I've mentioned here before, a lowering of rates by the Fed is no guarantee of lower mortgage rates. Again, inflationary worries often have more of an impact on those rates.

Next, recessions are not good for real estate! People insecure about their financial prospects do not go buy new homes! If you're worried about losing your job you don't look to move up. You look to hold on to what you've got. Time to batten down the hatches!

And, lastly, there is no quick turn around for real estate. And, that's certainly true here locally. There are not enough buyers waiting on the sidelines to completely turn around this market in the short term. It took time for us to dig the hole we're in. It will take time to fill it back up! I'm hopeful we'll see a bottom in 2008. Anyone expecting much more than that has got some serious rose colored glasses!