I wish I was writing to tell you all I won the Mega Millions this last week. No such luck! But Fauquier & Culpeper county are a little richer thanks to the Neighborhood Stabilization Program. Fauquier County was awarded $1.5 million. Culpeper got $1.2 million. The money will be used to buy, rehab and resell foreclosures in neighborhoods hard hit by the real estate downturn.

In Fauquier that means the southern end of the county. In Culpeper think Lakeview for sure.

I got one thing wrong in my earlier blog about this. I thought it would be too late in the process for them to get the money. They met the deadline but given the money already awarded and the competition I really didn't think Fauquier & Culpeper would get any.

It's too soon to know if I was right about my other reservation. The foreclosures are getting fewer and fewer and almost always involve bidding wars these days. It'll be interesting to see what the counties are actually able to purchase with this money.  There are plenty of short sales, just not so many foreclosures these days.

There are too many things I want to talk about today so I'll throw a little of everything out for your consideration.

The Wall Street Journal has an article this week about a plan they are proposing to help stabilize housing prices by granting resident status to foreigners who buy homes here. It suggests that they would have to own the properties for five years and couldn't rent them out during that time. It's an interesting idea. How would you monitor whether or not they were rented? There are lots of details that would have to be worked out but I'm always happy to see people getting creative!

Kudos to Hazel Homes. Clients bought a home from them this week and they were a pleasure to work with from start to finish. They went above and beyond to make sure they exceeded my clients' expectations. They asked for the full home inspection report and proceeded to work to rectify every item on there, no matter how small and insignificant. Trust me, that is not standard and they deserve recognition for their excellence! If you're looking for new construction in Culpeper I'd highly recommend them!

And, a plague on the houses of dishonest lenders. In a separate transaction I have clients who have been working with a lender for two months who's lied throughout the process. The loan he guaranteed was "ready to close" is now dead and my clients are scrambling to find other financing. After everything that's happened around lending in the last few years, it's unconscionable that there's still no accountability for lenders.

Mortgage rates dropped significantly after yesterday's announcement by the Fed of additional intervention to get credit flowing. 30 year fixed rates can now easily be found under 5%. Add that to the $8000 tax credit and a lot of prospective buyers should be excited about what they can afford right now.

While bargain hunters have been avidly focused on foreclosures and, to a lesser extent, short sales; another segment of the market also offers some spectacular bargains.

Builders who have inventory already built want to get rid of that inventory quickly. In this area, builders haven't been building spec homes for some time now. These homes are generally homes where a contract fell through. Occasionally, you'll see a model home for sale where the builder has finished building in that subdivision.

These homes can be tremendous deals. Builders don't want and usually, can't afford to sit on inventory. It ties up cash they need to pay off loans and move forward with other projects. And, so they're typically priced attractively to start and an even better deal can be negotiated.

Unlike typical new construction, these homes may have the basement already finished. And you're likely to see a fair number of upgrades already included. And, if you don't like exactly what you see, don't be afraid to ask for what you want. While they're not going to gut the house and redo it to suit your taste, there is probably room for some changes.

True, there aren't as many of these bargains as there are foreclosures. But you also don't have as many of the problems as arise with a typical foreclosure. The odds of you settling on time and being in your new home when you expect to are exponentially higher with new construction. You're likely to receive an answer to your offer much more quickly. And there's much less likelihood of last minute deed problems.

There are still builders with inventory in most local counties, including Fauquier, Culpeper, Prince William and Loudon.

If I was a buyer in the market to buy, I'd be looking for some of these gems.

Virginia was awarded $38.7 million from the federal government to buy foreclosed homes. This was part of the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008. And, Virginia's been trying to get rid of it ever since!

The program is called the Neighborhood Stabilization Program. The funds are designed to allow local communities to purchase foreclosed homes and then to rehabilitate, resell and/or redevelop these properties to stem the decline of housing values in a neighborhood.

And, even better, it's then possible to combine this with other programs to help local police, teachers, firefighters, etc. to become homeowners.

So, why is the Commonwealth having so much trouble giving this money away?

They recently sent representatives to the mid-year Virginia Association of REALTORs meeting to drum up interest among real estate agents. The Commonwealth has sponsored a series of seminars around the state to inform localities about the program and how to apply. And, still, much of the money goes unused.

I know it's not because local communities don't have a problem with foreclosures! Ask anyone in Lakeview in Culpeper if they'd like to see some homes bought up by the government to help stabilize housing prices!

So, I'm going to theorize why the money sits there.

1. Local governments view the burden of taking this project on as requiring too many resources. There is, of course, paperwork to be submitted. Appropriate neighborhoods must be found and data on the property values and vacancy rates obtained. The requirements state that a qualified pool of buyers must be available. Once homes are bought with this money, they must be rehabbed and then sold. Potential buyers must be screened, etc. This probably all sounds overwhelming to local governments already spread thin.

Solution: Partner with local real estate agents, Habitat for Humanity and other local groups who can contribute expertise. Form a task force to make this happen. I'll volunteer my time to make this work!

2. A belief that there aren't any neighborhoods that qualify. They're looking at neighborhoods that have somewhere in the neighborhood of 10% foreclosure rate.

Solution: But "neighborhood" is defined by the local entity and as long as you can justify why you chose that as a "neighborhood" it shouldn't be too hard to find areas that would qualify. Heck, last time I checked there were enough foreclosures in Rappahannock County to qualify!

3. The word hasn't gotten out and local governments don't know about the program.

Solution: I'm doing my bit here. I hope other bloggers will add their voices. Local press can help. And local communities of individuals who might benefit, i.e. teachers, police, fire fighters, can let their local governments know they'd like to see this program used here.

How will 2009 play out? I can only speculate. In truth, this feels like one of the toughest years to predict. But I am undaunted! I'm going out on that limb to make some predictions.

I need to preface my predictions with a word about the overall real estate situation. There are two possibilities in 2009. The government could intervene in a meaningful way in the real estate markets. (Other than the Fed action earlier this month to say they’ll buy mortgage backed securities, federal intervention up until this point has definitely been NOT meaningful!) If they do that, the forecast, while not rosy, is for a market that’s beginning to stabilize. The other alternative is that the federal government does nothing about the real estate markets, the overall economy continues deeper into decline and there’s no end in sight. That produces a markedly more pessimistic forecast.

I couldn't have said this better myself! Here, in the Culpeper Star Exponent is a framework for Culpeper's future.

I'd add that we should look at the transportation issues and work on better rail connections with these technology centers.

And, I'd add to his rationale for attracting high tech jobs that they tend to pay well enough for people to afford to buy homes, as opposed to service industry jobs.

The local real estate market could use that shot in the arm!

As you're making plans for your weekend, don't forget to stop by one of the local farmers markets. Here's a list of some that I've been frequenting:

Nokesville Farmer's Market - I just discovered this one but already love it. Hours are 8 to noon on Saturdays. They take "local" seriously at this one. All vendors are from Prince William or Fauquier Counties.

Warrenton Farmer's Market - Great excuse to get into old town Warrenton. This is their 33rd year. See them downtown Saturday's from 7 a.m. to noon or on Wednesdays out on Lee Hwy from 7 a.m. until 1.

Culpeper Farmer's Market - At the corner of Main and Commerce every Saturday from 7:30 to noon. I've been very impressed by the great selection of heirloom vegetables here!

Clevenger's Corner Farmers Market - This is the newest addition having just opened last Friday. This is at the intersection of 211 and 229 in Amissville. They're open Fridays and Sundays from 4-7 p.m. for all you non-morning people!

And...I hear there will be a new one in Sperryville any day now! More to come on that.

If you've got others you'd like to see mentioned here, jump into the comments and let everyone know!

I'm going to take a moment today to acknowledge that this is my 400th blog post here! I've enjoyed every minute of it and have learned more than I would have thought possible!

It's been fun hearing from you. All of you are the reason this blog exists. The purpose remains the same now as it was at post number one. This is here to give you, the consumer, more access to information on real estate in general and on the Fauquier (Warrenton), Culpeper, Prince William, Rappahannock and Warren county real estate market.

The occasion of the 400th post is prompting some reflection and analysis and watch for some adjustments going forward that will hopefully make this blog even more relevant.

And, because I wanted today's post to have an upbeat feel, here's an article on what I believe is ultimately a very positive sign for the real estate market overall. Work outs for troubled mortgages have not been happening in anywhere near he numbers they need to. This points to better systems and processes to make that happen.

And, one more milestone occurs later this week. Next weekend I'll turn 50!

YeeHaw!

The Culpeper Star Exponent reports that two condominium projects slated for Culpeper have been pulled due to current economic conditions as well as the state of the local real estate market. It's not that Culpeper wouldn't be better off with more condominiums in the housing mix, but it's definitely the wrong time. For weary sellers, less competition is good news!

And, that's only a small piece of the good news in the real estate market.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have dropped their "declining markets" indicator. Since just about every local jurisdiction had been labeled a declining market that's big! This indicator meant buyers had to come up with more cash to buy homes in this area. In a market already starved for buyers, this was not helping! Don't expect a flood of new buyers as a result of this, but it should help out a few buyers who were short that extra cash.

And, let me leave you with one more piece of good news. No housing market is completely depressed or completely robust. There are always pockets that are thriving even in the toughest markets. One of those areas here is the rental market. Rentals that are well-priced and in good condition are moving, sometimes pretty quickly. The summer season should be a good one for the rental business. And some sellers might be well-advised to consider renting out their properties that aren't selling.

There's lots to talk about today.

Saturday, in Warrenton, is the third annual Alternative Energy Expo. It runs from 9:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. at the Fauquier County Fairgrounds. Admission is $5. If you've been thinking about making your home and/or your life more "green" this is a great place to get ideas, talk to people who can help and get inspired! It's bigger and better than ever this year!

Most of you should have received in your mailboxes this week a circular called "Northern Piedmont - Buy Fresh - Buy Local". The Piedmont Environmental Council sent this to residents of Culpeper, Fauquier, Orange, Madison and Rappahannock counties. In it you'll find a guide to buying almost everything you eat locally from produce to meat, from farmers markets to CSAs to buying right on the farm. Great publication!

The WSJ has run a couple of very interesting real estate articles this week. First up was an article called "As Dues Dry Up, The Neighbors Pay" about how as no one is paying the HOA dues on vacant/foreclosed houses, other homeowners are having to swallow large increases in dues. It's another things buyers need to take a careful look at prior to buying.

The other article in WSJ was "Will Upgrading Your Home Help You Sell It?" and the results are clearly mixed. In a declining market I'd always argue that while you want your house to shine, you should never put in expensive upgrades. This article has some interesting details.

The April numbers are finalized.  I did a sneak preview for you about ten days ago, before the numbers were official. And, the picture hasn't changed much.

In every county, the pattern is the same. Inventory has risen again, as has the number of new listings. After a dismal month in terms of sales in March, April looks better, both in terms of new contracts written and sales closed. But the number of houses sold is not keeping pace with the new listings coming on the market.

Fauquier, Culpeper are each showing about 16 months of inventory. Warren is looking worse at 24 months. Prince William is in the best shape at only 9 months. Rappahannock, being a special place, has about 3 years worth of inventory. But, again, the numbers generally don't give a very realistic picture of Rappahannock.

The more interesting comparison, of course, is year over year. Since real estate is very seasonal, that's always true. In general, inventory is higher than it was a year ago and sales are slower. There are some exceptions, but it's too soon to say if those are a blip or a true change in market conditions.

No bottom in sight would be my reading of current conditions. There is nothing to suggest we've turned a corner. (Although I remain hopeful that I'm wrong!)

It appears some of what I've envisioned for Culpeper may be coming to pass. With new condos slated to be built downtown right across from the train depot and now another Amtrak train to and from DC potentially being added, I like the long term outlook for Culpeper!

OK, I'm annoyed.

Here's my problem. The data on the listings for short sales and bank foreclosures is so often wrong or just missing!

I understand completely that agents are generally making less money on these listings. And, it makes sense that you're not going to spend a lot of money advertising them. But surely some sense of professional pride should demand that you do a complete job of putting the basic listing information in the MLS.

I showed a condo in Culpeper that was listed as "Fee Simple" for form of ownership.

For those of you who don't know, basically condo ownership means that you own from the interior paint, inwards. So, you don't own the walls, roof, yard, etc. That's a big difference from a property where you have maintenance responsibilities for all of the above. It's a pretty big listing mistake.

Now, I'm annoyed because I looked stupid. I searched for condos in that community that were for sale and missed this one because it wasn't listed as a condo. I'm partially mad at myself for not thinking to broaden the search criteria under the assumption it had been listed incorrectly.

And, I hate, hate, hate looking stupid. I really hate being wrong!

There! I feel better now!

I'm a little late getting March's numbers out to you all. Blame the IRS! But now that taxes are done, it's time to dive into the numbers and take a look. I haven't done individual posts by county for awhile so I'll be doing that over the course of the next few days.

Today it's Culpeper.

The biggest difference between February and March is the number of new listings coming on the market. Last month there were 206 new listings. This month there were only 142 new listings. That would seem to be helpful to the total amount of inventory on the market but there's only a slight difference (February: 819, March: 802). The other notable difference is the number of sales which increased from 31 in February to 42 in March.

Those numbers are interesting, but the more interesting comparison is with what happened a year ago. Remember, real estate is very seasonal. Spring markets are very different from fall or winter markets. The best comparison is almost always year over year changes.

In March of 2007, a year ago, the total inventory was only 643, as opposed to the 802 we've got now. The number of new listing taken were 145, almost identical to the number in March of 2008, 142. The number of new contracts was also very similar, 54 last year, 53 this year. The biggest difference is the number of closed sales. That number was 52 in March of 2007 and 42 in March of 2008.

Year over year it's hard to see any signs that this market is turning around.

Prices continue to drop. Average sales price in Culpeper county a year ago was $328,013. The average sales price now is $288,017. That's a 12% drop in one year. That's significant. There's no sign that prices are stabilizing either.

One statistic that surprised me is that the total number of new construction listings are up. As more and more builders have slowed or stopped building, I expected a reduction in new construction listings. But a year ago there were 224 new construction properties listed and now there are 263.

But perhaps even more surprising is the number of new construction sales. 12 sold in March of 2007 and only 4 in 2008. Considering the terrific deals most builders are providing, that's surprising. If you're ever going to buy new construction, the deals out there right now may make this the time.

Overall, there's not much here to raise your hopes if you're a seller. Lots of continued good news for the buyers!

This is an interesting map tool showing various non-prime mortgage stats in a US map format. You can choose the kind of information you want, enter the zip code you're interested in and see the detailed info.

The map is courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank of NY. Given that, I tend to think the information is pretty reliable.

The good news is that we don't appear to be in particularly bad shape. I looked at some of the hardest hit zip codes around, including Prince William and Culpeper, and didn't see anything that looked particularly ugly.

Wouldn't it be nice if it felt that way!?

The Senate is busy debating the Foreclosure Prevention Act of 2008. It's an important bill and one that has the potential to have a very large impact on the real estate market. It's worth taking a closer look at some of these provisions.

The bill covers these items:

• Increased FHA Loan Limits
• Assisting Communities Devastated by Foreclosures
• Providing Pre-Foreclosure Counseling for Families
• Enhancing Mortgage Disclosure
• Assisting Veterans In Danger of Foreclosure
• Property Tax Deduction
• Mortgage Revenue Bonds
• Help for Homebuilders
• Tax Credit for Purchase of Homes in Foreclosure

I'm going to talk about two provisions today that I believe could significantly help our market. One is the Tax Credit for Purchase of Homes in Foreclosure. This would provide a tax credit of $7,000 for buyers of homes in foreclosure or pre-foreclosure. The credit would be taken over two years. This could only be used on owner occupied homes, not on investment properties.

This could provide a significant incentive to buyers to get back in this market. It would also help to start providing a floor to price declines as the number of foreclosures on the market would likely decrease faster.

The down side to this is if you're a homeowner who is selling your home and you're not in foreclosure. You would definitely seem to be at a significant disadvantage!

The other provision that has the potential to make a huge difference is the Assisting Communities Devestated by Foreclosures provision. This would be available to communities hit hard by foreclosures and would provide Community Development Block Grant Funds to allow purchase of foreclosed homes. Those homes culd then be rehabilitated or redeveloped by the community. They could be used as workforce rental housing, or eventually resold. Perhaps partnerships could be established with organizations such as Habitat for Humanity.

What we don't know is which local communities would be eligible for this assistance. But, again, this could help enormously with bringing down inventory and stabilizing prices. I'm hoping that, at a minimum, Culpeper and Prince William Counties would be eligible.

The prospects for passage look good at the moment, at least in the Senate. And, I suspect in an election year the House will be even more interested in getting this one passed!

If you've got questions on some of the other provisions, let me know and I'll get you more information.

Saturday's Washington Post carried a story about foreclosure activity that primarily looked at Prince William county. As the story makes clear, things are pretty bad in Prince William County. The number quoted in the article is that 5.5% of the homes in the county are in some phase of foreclosure.

I took a look at RealtyTrac, a web site that specializes in providing foreclosure listings. It shows 3204 homes in Prince William County in foreclosure out of 5573 homes currently listed for sale. It says an additional 881 homes are in pre-foreclosure. And 1932 homes are up for auction. Some of those auctioned homes are likely to be foreclosures, although certainly not all of them.

To give you a feel for the rest of the area, Culpeper County has 137 properties in foreclosure, 20 pre-foreclosure and 97 up for auction. That's out of 819 listings.

Fauquier County has 111 foreclosures, 2 pre-foreclosures and 93 properties up for auction out of 730 listings.

Rappahannock County has 4 foreclosures, 0 pre-foreclosures and 6 properties to be auctioned.

Warren County has 0 foreclosures according to RealtyTrac, although I seriously doubt their data on this county. There are 4 in pre-foreclosure and 73 listings to be auctioned.

Last night I attended the Tranzon auction in Fairfax. Since most of you will probably never attend one, but many of you are probably interested, I thought I'd give you a report.

There were originally 19 auction lots to be sold. (Auction lots as opposed to parcels of land.) Ten of those 19 lots were from our area. They also had a half dozen DC properties and some land parcels in Clifton and Chantilly. I believe the proportion of local properties is representative of how much tougher the real estate market is as you move further away from DC.

Four of those 19 properties were pre-sold prior to the auction. In addition, one of the lots was three Culpeper townhouses. Two of those were pre-sold as well.

It was interesting that not one of the parcels of land met the reserve price. There were bids. But the seller had set a minimum price at which they'd accept an offer and none of the bids on any land parcel met that reserve. Land prices are always less elastic than residential homes and this confirmed that. And, since many of the bidders on land were builders, it's pretty clear that they're being very cautious right now. (If they weren't they'd be bankrupt, not bidding at auctions!)

I was at the auction with a buyer client so I had that hat on. So, I'll give my impressions from the buyer side first.

While the auction prices on some of these properties were attractive, there were no "steals" here. The ultimate sale prices overall were not far off current market prices. That tells me the people in that room had done their homework and weren't going to overbid. It also tells me that the heat of a bidding competition got some of them to bid a bit more than they really wanted to.

It was a cautious crowd overall. (And a large crowd.) For example, on the first property of the evening, a large colonial in Manassas on a 1.18 acre lot, the auctioneer tried to start the bidding at $700,000. He ultimately had to go down to $400K to get the first bid. The final sale price was $530K.

I was also struck by some of the comments by Tranzon, both the auctioneer and the gentleman providing the descriptions of each property. Comments like "You know this is going to be worth $350K in a year or two" and "The value on this can only go up" were shocking to this REALTOR who has been trained to never misrepresent value. And, the interesting thing is that I think those kind of statements were actually counterproductive. You could hear some of the scoffing after these comments as the potential buyers seemed to be reminded of the current state of the local real estate market and the folly of such predictions.

From a seller's perspective, this is not an unattractive way to sell a home. None of the residential properties failed to meet the reserve price. They all certainly sold faster than they would have under normal circumstances. And, I don't believe there was a significant decrease in the net in the seller's pocket. Remember that all of these properties are sold as-is with no inspections, appraisals, etc. And, settlement must take place within 30 days. I wouldn't hesitate to help a seller use an auction to sell their property. In this market, it's probably a method more sellers and their agents should seriously consider.

It was a very educational evening. If you're interested in more information on either buying or selling at an auction, let me know and I'd be happy to help!