I thought this story was worth telling. Many small builders are paying a big penalty in this market.

The first six weeks of the year, contracts in my office were up approximately 100% above those same six weeks in 2008. A sign? Too soon to tell, but it's nice to see some good news!

Finally, some input from consumers backing up what I've come to believe about virtual tours. I'll grant you it's not a scientific sample. But I'm taking it as reinforcement!

I'm highly competitive by nature, although I hide it well! There's a listing contest in our office. Whoever gets the most new listings by the end of March wins. Here's the thing, I talk most sellers out of selling because in this market if you don't HAVE to sell in the next 12-24 months, you should probably not even try. But if you no someone who really does need to sell...I'd love to win!

Today, finally, I'll get around to talking about the numbers for Warren County.

Inventory in Warren County has stayed relatively stable month over month. There were 560 homes listed for sale in February and 567 in March. No significant difference there. Surprisingly enough, Warren County is the one county where there's very little difference year over year in this number. In March of 2007 there were 558 homes listed.

93 new listings came on the market in February. March was up slightly with 98. There's a significant difference in last year's numbers, however. In March of 2007 there were 161 new listings.

We do start to see some differences with contracts, month over month. In February there were 22 new contracts. In March that jumped up to 34. Of course, that's less impressive when you consider that a year ago there were 52 new contracts.

There were 24 closed sales in March, 22 in February and a year ago there were 39.

Overall, the patterns are similar to what we've seen in the other counties.

Prices in Warren County are down almost 17% year over year. It's worse than Fauquier, Culpeper or Rappahannock, but not as bad as Prince William.

Next week I promise an end to all these boring statistics for awhile!

I'm a little late getting March's numbers out to you all. Blame the IRS! But now that taxes are done, it's time to dive into the numbers and take a look. I haven't done individual posts by county for awhile so I'll be doing that over the course of the next few days.

Today it's Culpeper.

The biggest difference between February and March is the number of new listings coming on the market. Last month there were 206 new listings. This month there were only 142 new listings. That would seem to be helpful to the total amount of inventory on the market but there's only a slight difference (February: 819, March: 802). The other notable difference is the number of sales which increased from 31 in February to 42 in March.

Those numbers are interesting, but the more interesting comparison is with what happened a year ago. Remember, real estate is very seasonal. Spring markets are very different from fall or winter markets. The best comparison is almost always year over year changes.

In March of 2007, a year ago, the total inventory was only 643, as opposed to the 802 we've got now. The number of new listing taken were 145, almost identical to the number in March of 2008, 142. The number of new contracts was also very similar, 54 last year, 53 this year. The biggest difference is the number of closed sales. That number was 52 in March of 2007 and 42 in March of 2008.

Year over year it's hard to see any signs that this market is turning around.

Prices continue to drop. Average sales price in Culpeper county a year ago was $328,013. The average sales price now is $288,017. That's a 12% drop in one year. That's significant. There's no sign that prices are stabilizing either.

One statistic that surprised me is that the total number of new construction listings are up. As more and more builders have slowed or stopped building, I expected a reduction in new construction listings. But a year ago there were 224 new construction properties listed and now there are 263.

But perhaps even more surprising is the number of new construction sales. 12 sold in March of 2007 and only 4 in 2008. Considering the terrific deals most builders are providing, that's surprising. If you're ever going to buy new construction, the deals out there right now may make this the time.

Overall, there's not much here to raise your hopes if you're a seller. Lots of continued good news for the buyers!

We're seeing a few more FHA mortgages this year. They had fallen out of favor during the boom years. And, for buyers it's a great thing that they're back.

The benefits to buyers are a reduced requirement for down payment (3%), lower loan costs, easier qualification and, some additional home inspection protection.

There are some down sides if you're a seller, however.

The big one is the FHA appraisal. This is not your standard appraisal where the appraiser is looking at the market value of the home. It is that; but it is also another home inspection. A transaction can sail right through the home inspection contingency with no issues. Then the FHA appraiser looks at the house and decide that there's a problem that MUST BE FIXED before settlement can occur.

Unlike with the normal home inspection, this is not a negotiation. If the seller finds himeself unwilling or unable to complete these repairs, the deal is usually dead.

The home inspector may have thought the roof was in perfectly good condition. The FHA appraiser can decide that the roof needs to be replaced.

If you're the buyer, this can be terrific. The FHA is trying to prevent you from having to buy a new roof shortly after you've bought a home.

If you're the seller, you may not be as thrilled.

The other, much smaller issue, is that there are some fees associated with a settlement that the FHA will not allow a buyer to pay. Typically these are small amounts and I've never seen this jeapordize a transaction.

You can see why, when houses sold like hot cakes, it was hard for anyone to buy a home with an FHA mortgage. If there are several offers, I'd likely advise my seller client to choose the non-FHA offer.

Still, in this market, if the only offer you've got is one with an FHA mortgage, I'd say grab it and keep your fingers crossed!