I promised a sneak peak at the August numbers. And, overall, they're looking good. The number of closed sales looks like it stayed pretty close to July numbers. But those were good numbers overall. Inventory seems to have dropped significantly in most markets. Final numbers will be out next week and I'll have a more detailed analysis then.

And, while I'm giving you impressions, here are a few things that hit me after showing dozens of homes over the weekend.

• The showing instructions provided for many of the real estate agents were often wrong. There were a lot of people in homes where the listing agent had said they were vacant or out of town. Surprises are never a good thing!
• Overall, foreclosures are priced significantly below the rest of the market. There are a few banks who still aren't getting it. But most have priced these homes to move! However, most foreclosures will require, at a minimum new paint and carpet throughout the house.
• Short sale pricing is all over the map. And, many of the properties where the bank has already approved the short sale price are going to actually sell for much less. Or, the banks will not accept the offers and it will end up in foreclosure (at a much lower price).
• There were a substantial number of short sales where it was clear an offer had disappeared after buyers gave in to frustration when the bank took too long to make a decision. I suspect the real surprise is that there weren't more of those!
• For the first time in a very long time, we ran into other agents with clients showing the same homes at about the same time. That's got to be a good sign!

I'm fully booked this weekend showing properties to potential buyers.

Great news, right?

Here's the thing, out of all those buyers, not one of them wants to see anything in Fauquier, Culpeper, Rappahannock or Warren Counties.

Next week I'm going to do a very, very specific analysis between a few houses in comparable subdivisions in Fauquier, Prince William and Loudon counties. I think the price comparisons will be surprising to a lot of people.

Other Coming Attractions Next Week:

• Early Peek at August Numbers
• Poplar Springs Efforts to Go Green
• Re-inventing Warrenton

Have a wonderful Labor Day weekend!

I wish I'd bought a house on a busier street.

I wish I hadn't wasted my money on a home inspection.

I wish my commute was a little longer.

It was such a waste of time test driving the commute ahead of time.

I'm so glad I didn't worry about resale when I bought this house.

I so wish I'd bought more house than I could afford.

Using the seller's agent and having no representation was definitely a good move.

I'd just as soon not see photos on listings on the internet.

I wish I hadn't saved up so much money for the down payment.

I love that heavy metal rock band that practices in the garage next door.

Since foreclosures are such a big part of the market right now, I'm going to do a few posts on some of the issues that are likely to arise if you're buying a foreclosure.

Today I'm going to talk about settlement companies.

Once the bank has given you a verbal agreement that they've accepted your offer, you'll get an addendum (or, more likely, multiple!) One of the clauses you're going to see in that addendum concerns your choice of settlement agent.

The bank is going to want you to use their settlement attorney and there are several ways they may try to make this happen.

One is to incentivize you. The addendum will basically offer you some discount or deal if you use their settlement company. The most common one here is free title insurance. The problem with these incentives is that (as with new construction) you will very rarely actually save any money. Reports are now coming in about the padded fees for these settlement companies in order to make up for giving away the title insurance. In short, you'll be lucky if you save $50 and may actually end up paying more.

The other way a bank can try to get you to use their settlement agent is to simply say in the addendum that you, the buyer, are obligated to do so.

Let's make it clear right now, that you are not obligated and nothing a bank says in an addendum can make you obligated. A buyer in Virginia always has the right to choose their own settlement agent. And, a bank's attempt to get you to use their settlement agent without disclosing the financial relationship between them is a violation of Federal RESPA laws.

The problem becomes that many buyers desperately want the house and are afraid if they don't agree with the addendum without any changes their offer will still be rejected. I understand wanting the house. But it's my job as your agent to also make sure you're protected.

So, go ahead and sign the addendum and get the whole thing ratified. Then your real estate agent should write a notice, informing the seller (in this case, the bank) that you'll be using "X" settlement company instead.

Any clause in any contract forcing you to use their settlement agent is not enforceable. And, in all honesty, once they have a ratified contract in hand and the money is in sight, they're unlikely to balk.

By the way, the other reason you may not want to use the settlement company recommended by the bank is that the process is already slow enough! Since there are very few settlement companies working with these banks, most of them are completely overwhelmed. Good luck getting a settlement done in a timely fashion!

And, last, but not least, the settlement company is going to be doing the title search and make sure you really do own your house when you actually close. You want that done as thoroughly as possible by someone who cares about protecting your ownership interests. The bank's settlement agent would seem to have someone else's best interests at heart!

It feels like we're all moving in slow motion these days in the real estate industry. Or maybe we're just wading through deep mud that's slowing us all down!

Or choose your own mental image here.

And, there's one segment of the real estate industry that's almost single handedly responsible for the slow down...lending institutions.

With foreclosure sales making up 2/3 of Culpeper sales last month and 1/2 of those in Fauquier, a lending institution is actually the seller in most of the sales happening these days. If you add in short sales, where the lender has to approve any deal you're definitely dealing with the vast majority of transactions.

Lenders are moving very slowly on these things. On one foreclosure sale I'm working on right now it took my buyer clients about three weeks to even get a response to their offer. And there are enough stories around this to fill up a blog!

But lenders aren't the only ones slowing up the process. Listing agents who handle foreclosures are typically specialists in this area. Foreclosures are about all they do. Lenders typically offer less compensation on each individual deal in exchange for providing large volumes of transactions. And, so you get agents who are completely overwhelmed by the number of listings they have, but can't afford or won't pay to get help.

I heard one story last week about a buyer's agent bypassing the listing agent when he wasn't getting anywhere and asking the settlement company to talk to the lender directly to get things done. A week after settlement had taken place the listing agent still claimed to be unable to get an answer from the bank on outstanding issues! (This agent was completely unaware the deal had already settled!) More likely the agent wasn't even trying to get an answer as the issue had fallen through the cracks.

Documenting everything I do, every conversation I have, every fax or e-mail I send and who I talk to have become even more important than usual.

If you're trying to buy in the midst of all this, be aware that you will need a lot of patience. You may very well get a good deal buying a foreclosure or short sale. But it may require that you have the ability to wait several months to get the deal closed and get into your new house. Keep that in mind as you search for your next home.

Me? I'm getting just a little tired of slogging through all this mud. But like everything else, it's cyclical and this too shall pass!

More and more often these days I walk into a house and the first impression is.....

OMG! Phew! What is that awful smell?!

Now, to be fair, most of these homes are vacant. (Over 3/4 of the homes I show these days are vacant!) And, a closed up vacant house will always start to smell, over time.

Some of the smells I regularly encounter:

• Mildew
• Mold
• Pet urine
• Cigarette smoke
• Dead, rotting animals

There are plenty of others, many of them not easily identified.

If you're a homeowner, selling a vacant home, either you or your agent should be checking from time to time to see if the home has acquired any unfortunate odors.

Keep the air conditioning running! I know you're not living there and hate paying the bills, but, believe me, what you'll net in a better offer is more than you'll lose on paying those bills.

If there are some stubborn odors, take steps to remedy them. Get rid of drapes, have carpets professionally cleaned, consider getting an air purifier.

By the way, adding really smelly air fresheners is not the same as taking care of the problem!

Remember, the sense of smell is powerful and has a major influence on our emotions. No one falls in love with a stinky house! Even if they still buy it, the price went down the minute they opened the door and smelled the place!

If you're considering putting your house on the market, consider having a friend or neighbor give you an honest assessment of what they smell when they first walk in the house. This can be a delicate area so make sure they know they have your permission to be brutally honest!

And, if your agent tells you there's an odor problem that needs to be dealt with, don't waste any time in dealing with it. There's a house down the street that smells just fine and is also for sale!

The real answer to that question is, of course, that no one knows. There are some positive signs out there, but it's too soon to say if they're a trend or a blip.

But based on a current client situation, I'd have to say it hasn't happened yet.

I'm working with a buyer client who's also a licensed agent in a neighboring jurisdiction. This client is buying a home with other family members and there's a lot of nervousness about the future of property values in this area.

Here's the thing. This is a licensed agent. Agents get that this is cyclical. They get that if you're planning on staying in your home for many years (which is the case here) you're highly unlikely to lose any money. And, yet... there's a tremendous amount of concern.

We'll know the market has turned around when the agents aren't worried about buying!

This proves it's easier to be dispassionate about any market when it's not your money involved!

If you've been reading this blog lately you know that I've been writing reviews of homes and adding photographs at FranklyMLS.com.

It's been a great experience and it's been educational. I've never noticed exactly how much differently I look at a house when I put on my buyer's agent hat. But I'm very aware of that now.

Earlier this week, however, an issue came up and I think it's worth talking about. I reviewed a house that's been listed for sale. It had no interior photos and so I took those, as well as additional exterior photos.

These photos got me in trouble:

In my comments I said there appears to be a mold issue here.

The agent strenuously (VERY STRENUOUSLY) objected to both my mention of the world mold and my taking photographs and posting them.

One of her arguments was that I am not an expert on mold. That is entirely true. I'm also not a doctor, but if I see a bone sticking through your skin I'm going to tell you it's broken, even if I'm not allowed to diagnose!

She had someone interested in the house and they saw the photos and the comments and changed their mind. (Again, what are they doing calling the listing agent?!)

What I'd tell a potential buyer is that there appears there may be a mold issue here. We'll need to get the home inspector to take a closer look at this. From what we see here we can't tell what kind of mold, whether it's dead or alive, active or inactive. There are many, many kinds of mold, many of them not harmful to humans. If you truly love a house, this shouldn't be enough of a reason to make you automatically walk away.

As with pretty much any problem in a house, there's a fix. The question in each instance is: is the fix worth the time and/or money involved.

By the way, the offensive photos and comments have been removed. I have mixed feelings about that and I'll take that up in a future post.

Meanwhile, I'm off on vacation! This space will be quiet for the next week and a half. I hope you'll have having as much fun as I am!

Let's face it, the MLS is not always the buyers' friend. On short sales and foreclosures especially, but even on a substantial number of other listings, there are often no photos. Sometimes there will be one or you'll get the property with photos of only the exterior and the land.

That's a shame in many ways. Buyers want to see photos. With gas prices what they are, it's very helpful to be able to screen properties without having to drive to every one.

It's also a shame for the sellers, in all honesty. Buyers in most cases will simply bypass listings without photos. Photos of a place that doesn't look all that great are still almost always better than none. That's because buyers will usually assume even worse things in their imaginations if there are no photos. And, if what they'll see when they get there is likely to cause them not to buy it, why not eliminate them up front. Do you really want people tromping through your home who won't be interested in buying it?

So, a local real estate broker, Frank Borges Llosa, has taken matters into his own hands. There's a new MLS, that looks at the world from the buyer's point of view. The idea is to ask agents to photograph and comment on vacant homes. These comments and photos will be added to the MLS data that's already available.

It's a terrific idea and I've already begun contributing. I'll be selecting homes to work on based on several criteria. First, I'm interested in the property! Secondly, input from clients, customers and blog readers that they'd like me to check out a specific property. And, third, I'll start closer to home and work my way outwards. That means I'll start with listings in Culpeper, Fauquier and Rappahannock counties.

Let me know if you've got a property you'd like me to take a look at! And, continue to watch http://www.FranklyMLS.com for more updates.

I know! You think I drank the kool-aid, finally! Or, you're worried that my brain has finally shorted out! (Or, maybe THEY got to me!)

I assure you none of the above is true!

Ignore all the hype from the real estate industry about now being a great time to buy. That's not what this is about. It may or may not be a great time for any specific individual or family to buy any specific house!

But, historically, a buyer has never had more power than they do today! And, I believe that's news. That's a good news story that we should all be able to get behind.

With the internet-based tools available to buyers today, they've never had the opportunity to be more well-informed. They have access to tax records and GIS from localities. They have access to maps from Google that make map fanatics like me drool! There are places like Zillow where you can get a "Zestimate" which, although flawed, is still a pretty amazing development. There are new sites such as FranklyMLS.com that are marrying Wiki functionality with MLS capabilities.

There's even more information available to help you choose an agent, whether that's reading their blog or checking out their ratings on sites such as QSC.

In fact, the buyer has so many tools these days that I suspect a lot of them are suffering from data overload. Data without thoughtful analysis can be more of a burden than a help!

Still, the tools are amazing! Regardless what prices do in the local market, a real estate buyer anywhere in Virginia has never before had the opportunity to negotiate from a stronger position!

I saw this article on Friday, but I hate to go into the weekend on a bad news note! So, I saved it for Monday! Just what you needed, right?!

There are still buyers out there. There will always be buyers out there!

The pool is small and you're going to have to knock yourself out to get them to your house. And, if they're not coming to your house, it's over priced!

And, this article from the New York Times will probably interest buyers and sellers. The numbers here are national. (Our local numbers are worse.) But I think the letter to sellers is a good idea. Sellers, given the inventory in Culpeper, Rappahannock, Fauquier and Warren counties, I don't think I'd try the letter to the buyer. They really do have all the cards right now!

People talk to me all the time about real estate. Obviously customer and clients do that. But people who barely know me but know I'm an agent also do that. That's a good thing! I like hearing what's on people's minds and how they're seeing the current market.

Lately I've been hearing some things that don't quite ring true. So I thought I'd set the record straight.

First of all there's the current chart topper "I know that a bank will take any offer just to get rid of a foreclosure." It's a lovely thought, but just not true. In fact, there is quite a range of policy on this among the various lenders. While, in theory, no bank wants to hold a property a day longer than they have to, each lender has its own policy as to what's an acceptable offer. That may be a percentage below the listing price or it may be based on a percentage loss they are willing to absorb. It may be a combination of factors, including how long the property has been on the market.

Unfortunately, no one hard and fast rule covers this. But be assured, I've seen banks reject lowball offers, even perfectly reasonable ones!

Here's what sellers tell me a lot these days. "I know you're probably right about the price, but I just want to try it at this higher price for a little while."

Here's the problem. Prices are declining. So, while you're sitting on an overpriced listing that no one comes to see, prices have gone down further. Now, just to catch up to the market, you need to come down further in price than where I originally suggested. All you've done is reduce your likely profit.

And, of course, real estate agents have their own misconceptions. The one you'll hear most often these days is "It's a great time to buy a house." One agent last week told me he's never stopped saying that! I'm guessing his clients who listened to him a year or two ago may not be thanking him now!

It's a great time to buy a house if you're likely to stay in it at least five years. Given current market conditions and where I think we're going, I still won't guarantee anybody will make money in five years. But I think, if you include the tax advantages, you have an excellent chance of breaking even or even a little better.

If you're likely to get transferred in a year or two, it is clearly not a good time to buy! If you're looking to flip a house for a quick profit it is definitely a very bad time to buy! If you're looking for a long term investment, say a rental income property, it's a very good time to buy.

And, as always, what you buy and where you buy make a huge difference!

I walk talking to a colleague a couple of days ago about how the lower end of the market is where all the deals are being done right now. A house under $300K has a significantly better chance of selling than anything above it does. (Of the 41 houses sold in April in Fauquier County, half were below $300K. Another 10 were between $300K and $400K.)

She said that's good, because then the people who sold those houses will move up and so on and so forth. That's how the cycle works. And, I agreed initially. But as we discussed it further it occurred to me that the cycle seems to be broken right now.

There are still quite a few first time home buyers out there, and, an increasing number of investors. Typically the houses they buy are starter homes and then the sellers of those home move up the rung to a larger home.

But almost every home I show these days is empty. And, a large number of them are bank owned or on their way there. There are no owners living in those homes to move up to the next level of home ownership. They've already left and, in most cases, it was to go back to renting.

There are some empty homes where the owners got transferred and are gone because they're buying another home in another community. But a lot of the sales of starter homes are not producing the normal "move up" buyer that we usually see.

Today I'm going to talk about March's numbers for Fauquier county.

There is very little difference between the numbers in February and March. The total number of properties for sale in February was 730 and at the end of March we showed 734 available properties. That, actually, is good news. Many other counties continue to show substantial increases in that metric. 140 new listings were added this month as opposed to 153 in February. Again, at least it's moving in the right direction. There were 56 contracts written this month and only 44 in February. This is the biggest change in the month over month numbers. The number of houses sold last month rose from 32 in February to 35 in March. Not a huge difference, but an improvement.

Again, I think it's much more telling to look at year over year numbers.

Unlike Culpeper County we have not seen an explosion in inventory over last year, although we are up. That 734 homes for sale number is slightly higher than 723. We see a lot less homes coming on the market 212 last year as opposed to 140 this year. Unfortunately, that's where the good news ends. The number of new contracts written has fallen almost in half, 94 a year ago down to only 56 now. The same story applies to closed sales. In March of 2007 there were 62 closed sales. In March of 2008 only 35.

Year over year it's hard to see any signs that this market is turning around. The flatter inventory numbers do give me some hope,  however.

Prices continue to drop. The average sales price in Fauquier county a year ago was $368,565. The average sales price now is $318,249. That's a 15% drop in one year. That's significant. There's no sign that prices are stabilizing either.

We're not seeing an increase in new construction listings. And, new construction sales are almost non-existent. There was 1 last month.

Overall, there's not much here to raise your hopes if you're a seller. But there is lots of continued good news for the buyers!

I'm a little late getting March's numbers out to you all. Blame the IRS! But now that taxes are done, it's time to dive into the numbers and take a look. I haven't done individual posts by county for awhile so I'll be doing that over the course of the next few days.

Today it's Culpeper.

The biggest difference between February and March is the number of new listings coming on the market. Last month there were 206 new listings. This month there were only 142 new listings. That would seem to be helpful to the total amount of inventory on the market but there's only a slight difference (February: 819, March: 802). The other notable difference is the number of sales which increased from 31 in February to 42 in March.

Those numbers are interesting, but the more interesting comparison is with what happened a year ago. Remember, real estate is very seasonal. Spring markets are very different from fall or winter markets. The best comparison is almost always year over year changes.

In March of 2007, a year ago, the total inventory was only 643, as opposed to the 802 we've got now. The number of new listing taken were 145, almost identical to the number in March of 2008, 142. The number of new contracts was also very similar, 54 last year, 53 this year. The biggest difference is the number of closed sales. That number was 52 in March of 2007 and 42 in March of 2008.

Year over year it's hard to see any signs that this market is turning around.

Prices continue to drop. Average sales price in Culpeper county a year ago was $328,013. The average sales price now is $288,017. That's a 12% drop in one year. That's significant. There's no sign that prices are stabilizing either.

One statistic that surprised me is that the total number of new construction listings are up. As more and more builders have slowed or stopped building, I expected a reduction in new construction listings. But a year ago there were 224 new construction properties listed and now there are 263.

But perhaps even more surprising is the number of new construction sales. 12 sold in March of 2007 and only 4 in 2008. Considering the terrific deals most builders are providing, that's surprising. If you're ever going to buy new construction, the deals out there right now may make this the time.

Overall, there's not much here to raise your hopes if you're a seller. Lots of continued good news for the buyers!

Congress is working on its plan to stimulate the real estate market. But no one ever said the wheels of government turn with alacrity! And, I've never been any good at all at waiting!

So, here's my own little real estate stimulus plan!

If you're looking to buy a home, I'm offering a buyer's rebate program that's good for any ratified contracts between now and May 31st.

In addition, all buyers will receive a free home warranty.

If you're planning on selling your home, and you list with me between now and May 31st, I will pay for a home staging consultation and a home warranty.

If you'd like more information on either of these programs, give me a call at 800-851-1563 or e-mail me at Julie@JulieEmery.com

We're seeing a few more FHA mortgages this year. They had fallen out of favor during the boom years. And, for buyers it's a great thing that they're back.

The benefits to buyers are a reduced requirement for down payment (3%), lower loan costs, easier qualification and, some additional home inspection protection.

There are some down sides if you're a seller, however.

The big one is the FHA appraisal. This is not your standard appraisal where the appraiser is looking at the market value of the home. It is that; but it is also another home inspection. A transaction can sail right through the home inspection contingency with no issues. Then the FHA appraiser looks at the house and decide that there's a problem that MUST BE FIXED before settlement can occur.

Unlike with the normal home inspection, this is not a negotiation. If the seller finds himeself unwilling or unable to complete these repairs, the deal is usually dead.

The home inspector may have thought the roof was in perfectly good condition. The FHA appraiser can decide that the roof needs to be replaced.

If you're the buyer, this can be terrific. The FHA is trying to prevent you from having to buy a new roof shortly after you've bought a home.

If you're the seller, you may not be as thrilled.

The other, much smaller issue, is that there are some fees associated with a settlement that the FHA will not allow a buyer to pay. Typically these are small amounts and I've never seen this jeapordize a transaction.

You can see why, when houses sold like hot cakes, it was hard for anyone to buy a home with an FHA mortgage. If there are several offers, I'd likely advise my seller client to choose the non-FHA offer.

Still, in this market, if the only offer you've got is one with an FHA mortgage, I'd say grab it and keep your fingers crossed!