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RSS FeedWhen Will Things Turn Around? |
I ran across this interesting article on when the real estate market is likely to turn around.
I believe he gets it mostly right. One thing I don't believe he adequately factors in is the likelihood of intervention by the government. That could help significantly help reduce the number of foreclosures. That, of course, would push this whole cycle forward a little faster.
Is the government really going to intervene? Well, now that they've bailed out the banks there is certainly increased pressure for them to intervene on the behalf of individual home owners. Clearly that whole moral danger they were worried about was much less of a factor once push came to shove. But at the heart of this crisis is the individual home owner and the banks will continue to be in trouble as long as the foreclosures continue to rise.
The above article gives you some key benchmarks to keep an eye on. The benchmark I'll be watching most closely here is the inventory levels.
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