Rappahannock March Numbers

Today I'm going to talk about March's numbers for Rappahannock county.

First of all, a note to those of you who may be new to this blog or to Rappahannock County's real estate market. It is a much, much different market than the surrounding counties. The volumes are very small and so, in some ways, these numbers are less enlightening.

That said, inventory remains static in the county with 71 homes currently for sale. As with surrounding counties, inventory is up from a year ago, although not by a huge percentage. In March of 2007 there were 66 homes listed for sale. There were 11 new listings added this month as opposed to 13 in February.

The big new is that 3 sales closed in March. There have been several months in a row now where that number has been 1. So, percentage-wise, a huge increase! I wouldn't read it as a trend just yet, however! But it is good to note that there were also 2 new contracts written. Those numbers still don't look as good as last year's. In March of 2007 there were 5 closed sales and 3 new contracts written.

Prices continue to drop, even in Rappahannock County. The average sales price a year ago was $460,000. The average sales price now is $411,667. That's a 10% drop in one year. It's lower than the surrounding counties, but still not good news to sellers. A reminder to take average sales prices with a dose of salt for Rappahannock. With volumes so low and prices all over the map, this is a statistic that is often fatally flawed. But, year over year, right now, it looks reasonably accurate.

While new construction is a very small percentage of Rappahannock County real estate, it is noticeable that the new homes inventory has dropped over 50% over the last year. There were 10 a year ago and there are only 4 now.

In Rappahannock County,  much of the action is in land sales. There were three of those last month. In general, smaller parcels seem to be moving a little better recently.

The Rappahannock County real estate market remains steady, slow and not significantly different than a year ago. If you're a buyer looking in Rappahannock County things have rarely looked this good!

Rappahannock County Growth

There's an article on the Times Community Newspaper's web site regarding Rappahannock County and growth, or rather, the lack thereof.

It's an interesting piece and it makes a good place to jump off to a discussion about why the real estate market is so different in Rappahannock County.

While this county has also seen a slowing in the market, the effect is more muted here. Since there was never quite the "boom" you saw in surrounding counties, there's not likely to be the same level of downturn here either.

As this article points out, while Culpeper was the fastest growing county in the region with Madison and Fauquier not far behind, statistics suggest that the population growth in Rappahannock County is actually negative. While John McCarthy points to a small increase in population, what I've seen suggests that most of those additional people are weekenders and not full time residents. I don't believe there are any numbers available on the percentage of the population that are full time residents vs weekenders, but I suspect that the trend is for more part-timers.

All of which contributes to a very different real estate market. Average days on market can often be longer in Rappahannock County. But you see less variation over all. The prices are a little less "squishy" than in surrounding areas. There's less elasticity of demand, in part, because people who are selling second homes rarely feel the same pressure for a quick sale that someone does who's selling their primary dwelling. Most people don't have to sell in a hurry so they can get to the next house, job, etc.

Meanwhile, the debate about growth does continue in Rappahannock County. But John McCarthy is right in that no one is looking to turn this into the next Culpeper in terms of growth!

Rappahannock October Statistics

RAPPAHANNOCK COUNTY MARKET STATISTICS

OCTOBER, 2007

MONTH	ACTIVE	NEW LISTINGS	NEW CONTRACTS	SOLD
02/06	42	10	3	4
03/06	49	16	7	3
04/06	58	17	6	5
05/06	68	21	5	7
06/06	68	16	7	2
07/06	70	12	2	5
08/06	74	19	3	3
09/06	78	19	8	4
10/06	84	25	5	5
11/06	81	8	6	7
12/06	75	6	5	6
01/07	64	10	5	5
02/07	64	13	5	3
03/07	66	10	3	5
04/07	81	22	3	3
05/07	80	10	2	2
06/07	79	16	7	4
07/07	83	14	0	3
08/07	87	12	4	2
09/07	84	13	3	4
10/07	75	9	7	3

Rappahannock County

Rappahannock County, Virginia

Rappahannock County is a special place as any of the 7,000 some residents here will tell you!It is unique in Virginia in that it is the only county that has no traffic light and no supermarket!And that suits most of the residents here just fine! Some of the communities in the county are Washington (the county seat), Amissville, Sperryville and Flint Hill. The Rappahannock River flows along the northeast boundary of the county and separates it from bordering Fauquier County. To the southwest is Madison County and to the southeast is Culpeper County.

Just one of the many beautiful country roads. Rappahannock is at the foot of the Shenandoah and the rolling foothills are breathtakingly beautiful at almost any time of year.Tourism and agriculture are the main industries here.You will find plenty of farms and opportunities to buy your food directly from the source.Rappahannock County has several award winning wineries here. There are scores of Bed & Breakfast establishments and some world-renowned restaurants. The Rappahannock County public schools are fully accredited, elementary and high school.

If you are thinking about relocating to this county, you should know you'd probably encounter plenty of deer, black bear and wild turkey.While neighbors can be a little further away than in the city, there is also more socializing. Neighbors depend on each other more when the nearest store can be quite a drive, especially after a major snowstorm! But Fauquier Hospital and Culpeper Regional Hospital are both within convenient distances from Rappahannock residents. The county is likely to stay rural given the current zoning rules that say you cannot build on less than 25 acres. If you are looking for a lifestyle far from the hustle and bustle of the city, this may be the perfect place for you! For more information visit http://www.rappahannock.com

Amissville

Amissville, Virginia

Some time around 1763, Thomas Fairfax, 6th Lord Fairfax of Cameron divided the land now known as Amissville to Joseph Bayse and Joseph Amiss. In the early 1800s, descendants of both families wanted the town named in their own honor. So an election was held and the Amiss family won by a one vote margin, hence, the name Amissville. Amissville is located in Rappahannock County with outlying areas falling in Culpeper County and a tiny piece in Fauquier County.There is definitely the charm of small town living here, but the conveniences in Warrenton, Virginia are just 15 minutes away.

Amissville is a community of beautiful farms and good people.In the summer, residents can gather at Hackleys General Store for some blue grass music and every June the Amissville fire station hosts the annual carnival.Grey Ghost Vineyards is located right on Route 211 and is putting Virginia on the international wine map by producing acclaimed wines from immaculate vineyards. In about 1763, Thomas Fairfax, 6th Lord Fairfax of Cameron divided the land now known as Amissville to Joseph Bayse and Joseph Amiss. In the early 1800´s, decendents of both families wanted the town named in their own honor. So an election was held and the Amiss family won by a one vote margin, hence, the name Amissville. Most of the area is service by the Rappahannock school system, but again some outlying areas fall into the Culpeper public school district. For more information see http://www.amissville.com

A World Apart

Rappahannock County is a very different real estate market. It's different from the surrounding counties in a multitude of ways. It's more rural. There's no stop light in the county. There's no supermarket in the county and no fast food joints. There are more people than sheep in the county!

Those are part of what contribute to its uniqueness. But from a real estate perspective, the zoning restrictions contribute significantly to the difference. The minimum lot size to build (unless grandfathered in) is 25 acres. You won't see any mammoth subdivisions in Rappahannock County.

Because of all these factors the real estate market is different here. This county is battered less by the extreme ups and downs of the market. Demand is lower overall but there tend to be fewer peaks and valleys.

However, even Rappahannock County has noticed this market slowdown. There are 84 active listings in the county. Before the slow down that was generally in the mid-30s.

The average sales price is very unenlightening. With only three properties sold in an average month the numbers can swing wildly based on how many multi-million dollar properties sold. So we won't even bother with those numbers!

The average number of days a property stays on the market has jumped in the last year from 84 days to 196 days. Even in Rappahannock County, things are selling more slowly.

It appears there's no place to hide from this tough sellers market. But there's always good news out there and we'll talk about that tomorrow!