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I believe that numbers tell stories. And, going into the spring market, with everyone desperately trying to determine where the local market is headed, my instinct is to turn to the numbers.
It helps me determine whether my current experiences are unique or reflective of the market overall. And it helps me paint a truer picture of the market for my sellers as we look at realistic pricing.
So, here is a small piece of the real estate puzzle for Fauquier County, Virginia for the months from February, 2006 through February 2007. The data is taken from our MLS system and includes properties residential properties listed between $100,000 and $5,000,000.
The numbers I’ve chosen to look at are the total number of active listings at the end of that month, new listings that went on the market that month, properties newly under contract that month, and properties that went to settlement that month.
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MONTH
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ACTIVE
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NEW LISTINGS
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NEW CONTRACTS
|
SOLD
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02/06
|
489
|
149
|
64
|
54
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03/06
|
610
|
296
|
91
|
61
|
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04/06
|
692
|
254
|
94
|
77
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05/06
|
732
|
237
|
107
|
87
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06/06
|
781
|
218
|
78
|
90
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07/06
|
816
|
190
|
62
|
54
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08/06
|
823
|
206
|
79
|
79
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09/06
|
794
|
162
|
62
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61
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10/06
|
821
|
197
|
51
|
55
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11/06
|
723
|
105
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59
|
44
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12/06
|
643
|
71
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36
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54
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01/07
|
656
|
171
|
60
|
42
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02/07
|
676
|
135
|
71
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53
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There is nothing here that would support wild optimism about the upcoming market. There are some causes for concern as inventory is much, much too high, even though it’s fallen from it’s peak in August of last year.
The questions hanging out there are how many buyers will the spring bring? How many buyers will be taken out of the market by the tightening credit standards? Will foreclosures increase enough that they seriously impact inventory? Will investors believe we’re close enough to bottom that they ought to be buying?
So, how do things look from your perspective?
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Comments (2) :: Post A Comment! :: Permanent Link :: Email This Entry
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re: A Year's Worth of Fauquier County Data
Posted by: Susan Mekenney
Date: Mar. 19, 2007
Hi Julie,
I just attended a company sponsored lender event where we discussed the whole sub prime market situation. The lender has been in the business for the last 16 years. She said the market experienced much the same thing in '94 and then again in '97 in terms of lenders tightening up on their lending practices.
There is no question, this market is different that what we have been used to. However, I think a little more historical perspective could alleviate some concerns. History has a way of repeating itself and that is the case with real estate and up and down markets.
The sky really isn't falling.
My two cents.
Susan
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re: A Year's Worth of Fauquier County Data
Susan,
Thanks for your comments! The sky is definitely not falling! You're absolutely right. And I believe that if things did get truly scary we would see a move by the Federal Reserve Board to lower interest rates.
For now it's all just something to keep our eye on!
Thanks!
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