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The October numbers are out for our local multiple listing service and they are a mixed bag. The number I'm following most closely right now is inventory. Overall in the region, that number is falling month over month. However, year over year, we're still way above what we had a year ago. And, the worst news from my perspective, is that the number of new listings coming on the market exceeded those going under contract by about 3 to 1. In Fauquier County we've got approximately 16 months of inventory currently. In Culpeper County we've got about 22 months. That's if things continue to go under contract at the same rate and if nothing else comes on the market. Both of those are unreasonable assumptions.
The only reason these numbers aren't worse is that a lot of sellers have taken their homes off the market. That's good news. With the current level of inventory we need a change in one or more of these three elements:
1. Sellers pull listings off the market (preferably for more than one year).
2. Buyers start coming out in droves to buy up current inventory.
3. Prices and/or interest rates plunge in order to pull more buyers into the market.
It is hard to see any of these things happening in enough volume in the short term to turn this market around significantly. My prediction at this point in time is that the market will remain very soft throughout 2007.
I'm not an economist and there's certainly a good chance that I'm completely wrong. And, there can always be unforesee events that completely change the picture. But right now I haven't got even a hint of good news for you sellers.
For all you buyers, enjoy being in the driver's seat! But remember that some day you'll be the seller and what goes around comes around! Try not to leave the seller laying wounded on the floor!
I'd love to hear what you're experiencing in this market, whether you're a buyer or a seller. Let's hear from you!
For more information on buying or selling, please visit my web site at http://www.JulieEmery.com
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