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The November numbers are out and there are a few interesting things to note.
Across the board, the number of new listings coming on the market is down, inventory is down and sales and new contracts are down. It's not unusual to see a little drop in new inventory coming on the market in November. But I believe that part of this is that we're seeing fewer foreclosures hitting the market. We do not necessarily see a similar drop in contracts and sales in November. So, there are probably non-seasonal reasons for this. One possibility is that fewer foreclosures on the market means fewer properties of interest to the buyers out there. Another possibility is that all the bad economic news out there has some buyers waiting to feel better about their own financial future. A combination of these is the most likely culprit. And, while you may have heard about the recent surge in mortgage apps, most of those are refinancing applications and may not affect sales here in the next month or two.
Culpeper is showing a further drop in inventory to 592 units. That's the lowest number we've seen in over 2 1/2 years. Only 75 new properties came on the market and only 40 were sold. 42 new contracts were ratified. It's interesting to note that the last time inventory was at this level in April of 2006, there were 67 properties sold and 70 new contracts ratified. The inventory in Culpeper is actually a little overstated. There are two new condominium developments in Culpeper that are showing a lot of individual units listed in the MLS. But since there aren't any actual units built yet, the housing units actually in existence is a little smaller. You don't see this in most of the other counties.
Fauquier County shows an inventory decline as well, down to 631. Sales dropped from 49 to 35, but contracts written stayed steady. In Fauquier as well, it's the lowest inventory number in 2 1/2 years.
In Prince William County we're back where we were, in terms of inventory, in early 2007. There are currently 3919 properties on the market. As in Culpeper, all numbers dropped this month, new listings, new contracts and solds. Since Prince William had also been seeing large numbers of foreclosure sales I suspect the decline in those listings is having an effect.
Rappahannock County, having weathered much of the real estate downturn without dramatic changes, is still seeing stubbornly high inventory. It's edged down from its peak of 103 last month to 98 this month. But I expect that we may be stuck around 100 for a few months, at least. Since sales in Rappahannock remain slow, it will take a very long time to get down to a more rational inventory level.
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