Gainesville Dying?

A Reuters article this week suggests that Gainesville is a dying community.

I think the article gets some things right and others wrong.

Gainesville home sales are jumping. And in the lower prices we're seeing bidding wars and/or multiple offers. That doesn't signal to me that the entire community is dying. And, yes, there are still a lot more foreclosures to come. If they come at a measured pace the market will quickly absorb them.

On the other hand, I continue to see buyers less willing to do the long commute. So, unless the pool of jobs within a reasonable driving distance of Gainesville increases, the community has some tough times ahead.

And, the further out you go (think Fauquier County) the more commuters have opted out.

Are new, good jobs going to be created in these communities? Or, are we simply going to be smaller?

RE: Gainesville Dying?

Haven't we heard these same boorish, dire predictions in the past? The article draws some utterly ridiculous parallels and regurgitates this "communalism" mentality - think Reston Town Center. This mythology of planned utopias imbedded in urban/metro metropolises has simply not worked. People do not respond this way and their behaviors reinforce this. We've witnessed numerous instances of boom and bust cycles followed by supposed "experts" purporting dire consequences and the inevitable death spiral of suburbia. Quite obviously, this has not happened. In nearly every instance, the opposite has occurred. Families respond to affordability and value and have shown a willingness to commute (albeit begrudgingly) in order to achieve perceived quality of life. With development at a virtual stand-still, believe we may soon wrestle with the opposite challenge of having too little inventory with people scrambling for available housing options. Communities like Gainesville, Warrenton, Culpeper and others will continue to benefit and prosper. Additional investment in transportation alternatives and expansion initiatives will continue to attract.