Bottom!

I'm going to do it! I'm calling a bottom!

You can tell me I'm crazy. And, I won't entirely disagree. Bottoms are unknowable when you're there. You know it's the bottom after the fact when the statistics confirm it. So, anyone who tells you this is the bottom is, at best, guessing.

And, I will admit that this is an educated guess. But I look relentlessly at the numbers, day in and day out. I watch for trends. I study this stuff as though I was prepping for a final exam.

And, everything I see makes me believe we're at a bottom here. In places like Prince William I think it's clear we've already passed the bottom and all those people who are still waiting had best hurry up! Prices are already starting to rise.

In places like Fauquier and Culpeper it's much less obvious. There's still too much inventory and we have a ways to go to get to "normal". But the trend is solidly in the right direction. Even now, at the end of March when there should be tons of new inventory coming online for the spring market, inventory is still dropping. But new buyers are coming out.

Let me add one note and one caveat.

This is a sales bottom. I don't believe we'll see sales numbers fall from here, other than the seasonal dips we would ordinarily see. This is not a price bottom everywhere. In Prince William I believe prices have bottomed as well. I think you'll see small appreciation in Prince William this year.

In Faquier and Culpeper I believe you're still looking at a very small downward adjustment this year, perhaps flat if we get very lucky.  And we will not bounce off the bottom quickly. Expect relatively flat prices next year as well.

And, the caveat is, this assumes that we are not, in fact, entering another Great Depression. It assumes that the recession lingers through much of this year but that there is some recovery in 2010.

And, if the plan Republicans are introducing today for a $15,000 tax credit should become law, we could even see more price appreciation than I'm currently predicting. A note that this new tax credit is predicated on the buyer being able to put 5% down on the house.

Happy bottom!